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Price Changes 2015/2016

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭Markx


    Hard to believe Ozil comes out better than Silva in those stats, everywhere except where it's important that is!

    It seemed last season that Silva was shooting more than previously. It would be nice of Ozil did the same. That would convert his stats into points.

    I thought he was very good against Palace, and while not so much against Liverpool he was still heavily involved. Also, despite his reputation for being sluggish he seems better on the counter attack to me, so maybe away games will be where he produces. He is getting closer to the full 90 minutes more regularly now. I'll be holding him but without the confidence I should with an 8.5 million midfielder.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Colking


    Markx wrote: »
    I'll be holding him but without the confidence I should with an 8.5 million midfielder.

    I'm in the same boat. I was watching the Liverpool game and his contribution to it and he didn't look very threatening on goal. Having said that Liverpool played extremely well.

    Having said that Wenger is expecting great things from him this season and for the moment he's nailed on. Personally I think Rambo offers more of a threat but I don't want to be sweating every week if one of my main midfielders is going to start.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,734 ✭✭✭zarquon


    iroced wrote: »
    Thanks for the info.

    I presume you did but I'm gonna ask anyway: did you check the accuracy of FPLS predictions too?

    That would explain the slowing down of rises alright. Doubling & trebling + WC excluded. Don't think it's a good balance for the game. There's already the half-value lost for resale. Maybe FPL wants to make every single player affordable for everyone even late in the season (like impeding Agüero to reach £15m).

    Yes, they are accurate with a margin of error of between 0 and 5% allowing for adhoc anomalous rises

    I just checked their delta figures on Mahrez and based on his current 8.1% NTI towards a third rise i can verify they are using the 141K figure i hypothesised early i.e. triple the 47K 0.1 threshold. It's doubtful he'll reach that this week so there is no way to confirm their accuracy but next week may see a 0.3 rise due to the international break so i should be able to confirm that too.

    I have worked out their fall thresholds too.

    The fall threshold is 11% of ownership for each 0.1 fall with no weighting towards 2nd or 3rd falls. The fall threshold for a flagged player is 31%.

    You can see how i arrived at the calculations via the following spreedsheet with a sample of 73 players. Data is based on FPLS with additional calculations in colums J through M. The FPLS margin of error on falls averages about 2 to 3% so these figures can be taken to be reasonably accurate.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TvX_XgSa4yHOzwtueoskgc7HYZ8Rr56uXiKcoJCcsQM/edit?pli=1#gid=0


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,274 ✭✭✭✭FHFC


    Paully D wrote: »
    You're absolutely correct and you were spot on to post it, it's the type of post that makes this place as good as it is. :)

    As i posted elsewhere allthingsfpl.com give free access to all the opta stats and allow players comparison.

    That said, i won't object to someone doing it for me! ! :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,747 ✭✭✭Ziegler1988


    Fletcher -90.9% and 330 transfers away from a drop, while the guy I bigged up (Westwood) is at +64.5% :(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,734 ✭✭✭zarquon


    Fletcher -90.9% and 330 transfers away from a drop, while the guy I bigged up (Westwood) is at +64.5% :(

    It won't be long before we start seeing some regularly playing bench fodder at 4.4 and 4.3 both in midfield and in defense. That''ll free up funds nicely for better use. Wanyama will probably drop first because he is out of the game tomorrow and possible the weekend due to a stomach infection.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,024 ✭✭✭JokerD


    Mane is on -99.0 at the minute. Would people expect him to fall tonight?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48,258 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Fletcher -90.9% and 330 transfers away from a drop, while the guy I bigged up (Westwood) is at +64.5% :(

    I'll take him at 4.4.....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,710 ✭✭✭✭Paully D


    Fletcher -90.9% and 330 transfers away from a drop, while the guy I bigged up (Westwood) is at +64.5% :(

    I have him but to be honest I don't mind. He'll sit there all season long as my 5th midfielder regardless of what he drops to.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,672 ✭✭✭ElTel


    JokerD wrote: »
    Mane is on -99.0 at the minute. Would people expect him to fall tonight?

    Have him too.
    He has trended down to that figure relatively quickly. (especially since he dropped 0.1M the previous GW)
    I'm doubtful he'll survive but have only utilized the price change prediction site this year.
    The predictions seem to be getting better but the likes of Ritchie and Deeney seem to be at the precipice at least a week and have survived!
    3 hours to decide.
    Good luck.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,024 ✭✭✭JokerD


    ElTel wrote: »
    Have him too.
    He has trended down to that figure relatively quickly. (especially since he dropped 0.1M the previous GW)
    I'm doubtful he'll survive but have only utilized the price change prediction site this year.
    The predictions seem to be getting better but the likes of Ritchie and Deeney seem to be at the precipice at least a week and have survived!
    3 hours to decide.
    Good luck.

    I still have confidence in Mane and might just take the fall if it happens. Patience isn't something that comes often in this game seemingly with these price drops.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,672 ✭✭✭ElTel


    JokerD wrote: »
    I still have confidence in Mane and might just take the fall if it happens. Patience isn't something that comes often in this game seemingly with these price drops.

    Exactly.
    If he survives tonight and plays tomorrow he will reset to 0.(info. supplied by the main guys on these threads that you probably know.)
    I'm gonna hold him cos I've used my FT.
    Will probably drop but hopefully will be fit to play on Sunday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,251 ✭✭✭✭Lemlin


    Fletcher -90.9% and 330 transfers away from a drop, while the guy I bigged up (Westwood) is at +64.5% :(

    I don't really follow the different connotations like a lot of you lads but would some of those be WC transfers meaning he mightn't fall for a few days yet?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,747 ✭✭✭Ziegler1988


    Lemlin wrote: »
    I don't really follow the different connotations like a lot of you lads but would some of those be WC transfers meaning he mightn't fall for a few days yet?

    Probably WCs and people doing Fletcher to Mahrez. I think he'll drop sooner than nawt


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,655 ✭✭✭✭CSF


    JokerD wrote: »
    I still have confidence in Mane and might just take the fall if it happens. Patience isn't something that comes often in this game seemingly with these price drops.
    I'd have done the same, only for my fear that he won't play this week anyway. You've a double whammy thing going on with the risk of not being fit at all (or for 2 games in a week), and United coming in with a bid for him that leads to him not playing for that reason.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,211 ✭✭✭✭Scorpion Sting


    Up: Gomis

    Down: Crouch, Wickham, Ward-Prowse, Sissoko, Bolasie, J.Williams, Murray, Lambert, Vydra, Demichelis, Trippier, Zárate, Mané, Lopes, Lanzini, Lee, Iheanacho


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,472 ✭✭✭AdMMM


    Up: Gomis

    Down: Crouch, Wickham, Ward-Prowse, Sissoko, Bolasie, J.Williams, Murray, Lambert, Vydra, Demichelis, Trippier, Zárate, Mané, Lopes, Lanzini, Lee, Iheanacho
    Atta' boy Gomis!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,200 ✭✭✭hots


    2nd day in a row FFFix have had Gomez & McCarthy set to go up and not :/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,788 ✭✭✭Benimar


    hots wrote: »
    2nd day in a row FFFix have had Gomez & McCarthy set to go up and not :/

    I brought McCarthy in on the night I WC'ed as it looked like he was going up. That was 9 night ago :eek:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,734 ✭✭✭zarquon


    Benimar wrote: »
    I brought McCarthy in on the night I WC'ed as it looked like he was going up. That was 9 night ago :eek:

    He is not the type of player that people will spend a free transfer on. The majority of his transfers i expect will be wildcards so his figures are anyone's guess


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,747 ✭✭✭Ziegler1988


    FPLStats moved to a new server: http://fplstatistics.com/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,264 ✭✭✭✭manual_man


    zarquon wrote: »
    He is not the type of player that people will spend a free transfer on. The majority of his transfers i expect will be wildcards so his figures are anyone's guess

    All the same, someone like Ritchie is a bit strange, as you would imagine Ritchie->Mahrez has been a very popular transfer with regular transfers


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,751 ✭✭✭Bleating Lamb


    Isn't it tomorrow Pedro comes off 'protected' status?

    Only Wildcarded last week but thinking of swopping Sanchez out for him tomorrow eve before his inevitable .1 price rise tomor night.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,205 ✭✭✭Lucas Hood


    Isn't it tomorrow Pedro comes off 'protected' status?

    Only Wildcarded last week but thinking of swopping Sanchez out for him tomorrow eve before his inevitable .1 price rise tomor night.

    I'd be surprised if he rises tomorrow night.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,734 ✭✭✭zarquon


    Isn't it tomorrow Pedro comes off 'protected' status?

    Only Wildcarded last week but thinking of swopping Sanchez out for him tomorrow eve before his inevitable .1 price rise tomor night.

    Nothing inevitable about his. He is due to come off protection at 15.53 tomorrow. It is extremely unlikely that he will get anywhere close to the required 47000 non wildcard transfers in the remaining hours until the price change.

    On the other hand Sanchez is close to a rise but this is of no consequence if you are selling him anyway but will make him more expensive to buy back.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,364 ✭✭✭OneColdHand


    McCarthy set to rise tonight!!:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Mr. Guappa


    McCarthy set to rise tonight!!:rolleyes:

    Mick-McCarthy-001.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,831 ✭✭✭shineon23



    Up:
    Defoe, Jermaine



    Down:
    Given, Shay
    Lennon, Aaron
    Turner, Michael
    Adebayor, Emmanuel
    Gosling, Dan
    Townsend, Andros
    Oxlade-Chamberlain, Alex
    Schneiderlin, Morgan
    Tettey, Alexander
    Gouffran, Yoan
    Amalfitano, Morgan
    Markovic, Lazar
    Ulloa, Leonardo
    Aarons, Rolando
    Samaras, Georgios
    Kramaric, Andrej
    Hepburn-Murphy, Rushian
    Fàbregas, Cesc
    Denayer, Jason


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,685 ✭✭✭✭wonski


    Defoe and Jermaine ???

    Unexpected.

    Was thinking who the hell is Jermaine. Lol...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,264 ✭✭✭✭manual_man


    Fair ridiculous already the ratio of drops to rises. You'd think with all the experience, the buffs at FPL towers would have altered the formula to reflect things better. McCarthy to rise tomorrow :cool:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,022 ✭✭✭✭Iused2likebusts


    Ade down hopefully he gets a Pl move before the deadline.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,262 ✭✭✭iroced


    I've been well inspired on doing Fab -> Pedro yesterday :)! Now hopefully this inspiration will reflect into points ;).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,816 ✭✭✭LostArt


    Ade down hopefully he gets a Pl move before the deadline.

    Rumoured to be off to West Ham.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,251 ✭✭✭✭Lemlin


    LostArt wrote: »
    Rumoured to be off to West Ham.

    Are relations between the two clubs not poor because of the Olympic Stadium move? I thought that's what made Levy call off that move in January.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,816 ✭✭✭LostArt


    Lemlin wrote: »
    Are relations between the two clubs not poor because of the Olympic Stadium move? I thought that's what made Levy call off that move in January.

    It looks like Levy just wants to offload Ade, he doesn't care to who anymore.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,878 ✭✭✭MuddyDog


    When is Pedro likely to rise considering he can't until after 12:45 on Saturday I assume?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,589 ✭✭✭✭Necronomicon


    MuddyDog wrote: »
    When is Pedro likely to rise considering he can't until after 12:45 on Saturday I assume?

    That is incorrect. His price protection ends this afternoon so theoretically he could rise tonight. That is unlikely though as his transfers in so far this week do not count towards a rise. At a guess I would say Saturday or Sunday? Chelsea play a 15:00 KO tomorrow so a lot will depend on how that goes.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,991 ✭✭✭sword1


    Any way to know what % ownership a player was the first week,i see mccarthy is 11.2% now ,the 6th highest ownership goalkeeper(schwarzer is 5th even though not playing),just wondering as he has been due a price rise for so long


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,642 ✭✭✭Deco99


    sword1 wrote: »
    Any way to know what % ownership a player was the first week,i see mccarthy is 11.2% now ,the 6th highest ownership goalkeeper(schwarzer is 5th even though not playing),just wondering as he has been due a price rise for so long

    Alot of Mccarthy ownership is due to wildcards, as said elsewhere on here, he's not the kind of player you use a transfer on.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,205 ✭✭✭Lucas Hood


    Can't find % but go to http://www.fiso.co.uk/crackthecode.php and click in a players name and you can see how many owned them day by day.
    Like this
    0fDJDLg.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Colking


    Lucas Hood wrote: »
    Can't find % but go to http://www.fiso.co.uk/crackthecode.php and click in a players name and you can see how many owned them day by day.
    Like this


    That is pretty much 90% - 95% of the people who WC I would think.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,747 ✭✭✭Ziegler1988


    Pedro unlocked on FPLStats and at 5% currently. FFFix has him going up 3.3%/hour so no chance he goes up tonight


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,734 ✭✭✭zarquon


    Pedro unlocked on FPLStats and at 5% currently. FFFix has him going up 3.3%/hour so no chance he goes up tonight

    A percentage of those will be wildcards too. There is no chance he will go up tonight.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,685 ✭✭✭✭wonski


    My wildcard did not get me any risers at all(except those I already own or just brought in).

    Reversed my team back to original one.

    No money to be made this week:mad:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,655 ✭✭✭✭CSF


    Pedro unlocked on FPLStats and at 5% currently. FFFix has him going up 3.3%/hour so no chance he goes up tonight

    Tomorrow morning could be a big one though because that's exactly the time when anyone who had the full info on Pedro would bring him in.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,386 ✭✭✭✭PARlance


    CSF wrote: »
    Tomorrow morning could be a big one though because that's exactly the time when anyone who had the full info on Pedro would bring him in.

    I'll be happy to make a call by tomorrow night.
    Most of my team will have played at that stage.

    If he blanks he mighn't make it at all on Sat which would be ideal as there's no MNF.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,655 ✭✭✭✭CSF


    PARlance wrote: »
    I'll be happy to make a call by tomorrow night.
    Most of my team will have played at that stage.

    If he blanks he mighn't make it at all on Sat which would be ideal as there's no MNF.
    My only thing with Pedro is if he isn't worth bringing in for Palace at home, it would take another virtuoso performance (which if I expect I should bring him in this week) to bring him in with Everton away and Arsenal as the next 2 games after that.

    Hence, he isn't in my short-term plans. If he was I'd bring him in this week. However, he could certainly play his way into them and I could change my short-term plans to facilitate him.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,386 ✭✭✭✭PARlance


    CSF wrote: »
    My only thing with Pedro is if he isn't worth bringing in for Palace at home, it would take another virtuoso performance (which if I expect I should bring him in this week) to bring him in with Everton away and Arsenal as the next 2 games after that.

    Hence, he isn't in my short-term plans. If he was I'd bring him in this week. However, he could certainly play his way into them and I could change my short-term plans to facilitate him.

    Ah ok, I'm happy to see what he does against Palace, if he has a stormer then he'll be going straight in as a potential season keeper.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,642 ✭✭✭Deco99


    Mccarthy set to rise


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Colking


    Ah nuts, I thought I was safe leaving Pelle (on my team) and Diouf (want to bring in) earlier today but now it looks like they're going down and up respectively tonight.

    I'm currently on -4, it's hardly worth -8 for .2 ? I'll most likely WC for the International.

    nVxuxKH.png

    Your thoughts are welcome.


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