Price Changes 2015/2016

keano_afc

Pulled the trigger. Had banked my transfer last week so out went Rooney, Walcott (on Friday so didn't lose out .1) and Sterling. Had planned getting Aguero anyway but couldn't wait for the price to go up.

CSF

keano_afc wrote: »

Pulled the trigger. Had banked my transfer last week so out went Rooney, Walcott (on Friday so didn't lose out .1) and Sterling. Had planned getting Aguero anyway but couldn't wait for the price to go up.

Just the 3 transfers right? You didn't wildcard when with a banked transfer did you?

Benimar

Rooney, Coates, Mings definitely going down this week. Fab and Mane possibilities to go down too.

With only 1 FT left I'm getting twitchy. Between 'saving' drops and banking any double risers, it could be a 0.6 to 0.8m difference.

km79

van aanhokt dropping fast too
all these .1s could kill me for the season.....

SlickRic

km79 wrote: »

van aanhokt dropping fast too
all these .1s could kill me for the season.....

It's why sometimes you just have to swallow your pride and wildcard.

PARlance

FHFC wrote: »

Yeah, my defence is poo, but not urgent apart from Coates dropping.

My team is in good shape otherwise with Aguero, Payet, Gomis, Mahrez, Gomez already aboard.

But I've just worked out that I'll be approx 0.9m worse off if i wait.

• Rooney/Coates drops -0.3
• I make it 4 fairly good 0.2 risers I don't have and could profit on (Richards, Yaya/Kompany*, Barkley, Lukaku) *will only have enough City spaces to profit on one of these. 0.4 missed out on.
• Players like Shaw/Darmian and Barkley (I know he's counted above but only for 0.1 potential profit) who I may want when I do wildcard and will cost more is another 0.2 cost.

Is it worth pulling the trigger now for that team value gain, or would there be a similar team value gain most weeks? I'd prefer to keep it but 0.9m is a big number.

It has pretty much been the perfect storm for price rises falls.

High Ownership players "failed": Rooney, Depay, Walcott, Hazard, Costa, Chelsea Def
The Return of 2 "must haves" who also scored to fuel things more: Aguero & Sanchez

2 good weeks from low ownership teams: Everton, Wham attacking, LEI midfield, Swansea

All that is needed is a Clyne 9 pointer tomorrow and he may get 0.2.

You're fairly well covered and it wouldn't take as much for you to make the similar amount in a less perfect week. Chelsea will come back with a bang at some stage so that will create one in future, the only thing is that all the WC's may be used by then. Like most things in FPL, following the crowd is normally good, but you got ahead of the crowd so it's very marginal.

km79

SlickRic wrote: »

It's why sometimes you just have to swallow your pride and wildcard.

not sure I "need" too though
if benteke scores tomorrow night I'll hit at least 50 to go with last weeks 52.......I don't have much time this week to pay attention to risers and fallers and look into rotations etc so I'm afraid of destroying my team and a decent start !
I'll stick it out till the pool game anyway I guess

SlickRic

km79 wrote: »

not sure I "need" too though
if benteke scores tomorrow night I'll hit at least 50 to go with last weeks 52.......I don't have much time this week to pay attention to risers and fallers and look into rotations etc so I'm afraid of destroying my team and a decent start !
I'll stick it out till the pool game anyway I guess

Fair enough...I didn't realise you've actually had a good start!

Cypher_sounds

Benimar wrote: »

Rooney, Coates, Mings definitely going down this week. Fab and Mane possibilities to go down too.

With only 1 FT left I'm getting twitchy. Between 'saving' drops and banking any double risers, it could be a 0.6 to 0.8m difference.

If Rooney scores a couple on Tuesday he might survive.

km79

SlickRic wrote: »

Fair enough...I didn't realise you've actually had a good start!

I'm equally afraid of undoing it with a hasty wildcard or delaying it too long and pricing myself out of players I want for the season!
going to wait till tomorrow now anyway and hope for a benteke show

PARlance

Cypher_sounds wrote: »

If Rooney scores a couple on Tuesday he might survive.

Might survive a 0.2 but I would bank on him dropping on Tues night regardless. On current transfers out, he'll prob be about 75% to a drop by tomorrow night. He should be well over 100% before he kicks a ball.

titan18

Cypher_sounds wrote: »

If Rooney scores a couple on Tuesday he might survive.

However, if he plays as bad as he did on Friday, more will start to sell

km79

SlickRic wrote: »

Fair enough...I didn't realise you've actually had a good start!

I'm equally afraid of undoing it with a hasty wildcard or delaying it too long and pricing myself out of players I want for the season!
going to wait till tomorrow now anyway and hope for a benteke show

keano_afc

CSF wrote: »

Just the 3 transfers right? You didn't wildcard when with a banked transfer did you?

Nope, just the 3 transfers. Wild card still in the bank.

iroced

km79 wrote: »

not sure I "need" too though
if benteke scores tomorrow night I'll hit at least 50 to go with last weeks 52.......I don't have much time this week to pay attention to risers and fallers and look into rotations etc so I'm afraid of destroying my team and a decent start !
I'll stick it out till the pool game anyway I guess

Same here. I'm "already" on 99 pts (accounting for my 4 pts hit) with Benteke captain to go tomorrow.

The crazyness (:eek: Agüero just scored one goal and he's almost increased 100% today :eek: - what will it be when he gets a hat-trick???!!!) of the price changes tonight makes me wonder now.

Despite all my efforts to convince people (myself included) Rooney was worth keeping for the Newcastle game I may just follow the crowd now and get Agüero. I would not like to pay him £0.3m more (or even £0.4m since he could well rise next Saturday and I would not like to transfer him before he gets to play).

Thing is I feel I don't really need to WC. A couple of adjustments at the back, Agüero. Sanchez.

The good thing is with my good start I can swallow a few hits (-8 maybe -12) for a mini-WC.

So.
WC pros.
If people really go crazy transfer wise and WC transfers are included, there could be huge movements this week (like we're seeing tonight). Also maybe it's worth remembering there are more than 3 millions players in the game while a couple of years ago we were only 2 millions. That can only amplify the price changes madness.
I'm already ahead of the curve. Surfing on the popular moves now could help me improving it further.

WC con.
Are WC transfers really included in price changes calculations?
If it ain't broke don't fix it. That's roughly my team.

PARlance

Nearly 100% certain WC's are included iroced. They seemed to have gone back to the way it was (before last year). All rises/falls to date suggest WC are being counted.

We haven't seen a double GW riser/faller yet so that's the only area of uncertainty. But can't see them messing around with that.

Benimar

OK, decision made. Going to do Coates and Fabregas to Darmian and Payet for -4. Fab transfer needed for funds.

Will keep Mings over Coates as he might get back to 4.5m when he starts playing. Sunderland are cack so Coates won't be getting the 0.1m back.

Will monitor Rooney (and others) over then next day or two and see how it pans out. Worst case scenario I have to WC and I've lost 0.1m on Mings.

iroced

PARlance wrote: »

Nearly 100% certain WC's are included iroced. They seemed to have gone back to the way it was (before last year). All rises/falls to date suggest WC are being counted.

We haven't seen a double GW riser/faller yet so that's the only area of uncertainty. But can't see them messing around with that.

I guess we'll know tomorrow for (almost) sure. I presume many WCs are already active so if all the predictions are right you're definitely right.

It's difficult to know right now though don't you think? I feel not many WCs have been played.
That said, all risers in the first week rose when predicted (and I'd say that GW1 big scorer were in every single WC team). So that'd validate your feeling.

ElTel

Done!
Walcott and benteke for sanchez and aguerro with no points hit

PARlance

iroced wrote: »

I guess we'll know tomorrow for (almost) sure. I presume many WCs are already active so if all the predictions are right you're definitely right.

It's difficult to know right now though don't you think? I feel not many WCs have been played.
That said, all risers in the first week rose when predicted (and I'd say that GW1 big scorer were in every single WC team). So that'd validate your feeling.

117k WC's played last week and no real surprised on price rise/falls, many were just above 100%, would also suggest they're included.

City transfers very interesting today.
Aguero 66k
Yaya 52k
Kompany 42k

Silva 16k and Kolarov 14k aren't making it in to as many teams as I would have thought.
At that rate Yaya may rise 0.2 before Silva gets 0.1 which would be great.

SteelyDanJalapeno

who's going up tonight then?

Inspector Coptoor

TiltedBrain wrote: »

who's going up tonight then?

Aguero
Yaya
Payate
Sanchez

Possibly Micah Richards

ElTel

mahrez aguerro toure payet according to fplstats

PARlance

TiltedBrain wrote: »

who's going up tonight then?

www.fplstatistics.co.uk

Looking like about 6 risers and could be about 25 fallers.

honeybear

Who's dropping?

Chesty08

TiltedBrain wrote: »

who's going up tonight then?

Mahrez
Aguero
Yaya
Payet
Richards
Barkley
McCarthy

Possibles
Zarate
Kompany

Outside chance
Darmian

shineon23

I have those 3 in at the minute but aim will be Silva/Kolorov at the deadline.

Am looking a Mahrez here for example, they have him at 153% to a rise,

does this mean that he'll start at 0 again or will he get the benefit of the additional 53% (adjusted down a bit due to ownership % changes) in going for a second rise after tomorrow?

SlickRic

Inspector Coptoor wrote: »

Aguero
Yaya
Payate
Sanchez

Possibly Micah Richards

Where are you getting Sanchez from?

shineon23

Inspector Coptoor wrote: »

Aguero
Yaya
Payate
Sanchez

Possibly Micah Richards

Alexis?
Am I missing something or where is that information coming from?

dahat

shineon23 wrote: »

Alexis?
Am I missing something or where is that information coming from?

That's incorrect, nowhere near rising tonight.

PARlance

shineon23 wrote: »

I those 3 in at the minute but aim will be Silva/Kolorov at the deadline.

Am looking a Mahrez here for example, they have him at 153% to a rise,

does this mean that he'll start at 0 again or will he get the benefit of the additional 53% (adjusted down a bit due to ownership % changes) in going for a second rise after tomorrow?

Back to 0 I'm afraid so they're "wasted" in a sense. It could have been much worse though. Fairly low wastage on the City guys.

FHFC

Inspector Coptoor wrote: »

Aguero
Yaya
Payate
Sanchez

Possibly Micah Richards

Where do you see any sign of Sanchez rising?

For some reason he's showing 0% on both sites. Showing something about unlocking tomorrow on fpls.

shineon23

PARlance wrote: »

Back to 0 I'm afraid so they're "wasted" in a sense. It could have been much worse though. Fairly low wastage on the City guys.

Thought it was this way last year but was not sure, am beginning to question everything the way these 2 GW's have panned out.

Starscream25

Hi, new here, will price changes occur tonight or only when the gw finishes with the Liverpool game?

Iused2likebusts

Starscream25 wrote: »

Hi, new here, will price changes occur tonight or only when the gw finishes with the Liverpool game?

prices change every night

Inspector Coptoor

One of the sites I was on was totalfpl.com

That not a reliable site?

honeybear

Will Kompany rise?

honeybear

Do tipsy transfers ever work out?

spock.

honeybear wrote:

Will Kompany rise?

Looks like it.

FHFC

It's settling down a bit now according to FFFix. They only have Payet, Aguero, Yaya and Mahrez going up tonight. Also have Coates down for tomorrow for anyone stuck with him!

FPLS showing quite a variance so will be interesting to see what happens. They still have Coates and a load more including Walcott to drop tonight and also have Barkley, Richards and McCarthy and probably Kompany going up.

PARlance

honeybear wrote: »

Do tipsy transfers ever work out?

Not when they're Bank Acc -> Poker Acc for a hit

shineon23

Up:
Mahrez, Zarate, Payet, Yaya


Down:
Lennon, Balotelli, Wisdom, Bradley Johnson, Nathan Dyer, Gouffran, Bolasie, Jedinak, Varela, Bony, Aarons , McNair, Cuadrado, Joshua King, Wimmer, Schweinsteiger, Macedo Lopes Ederzito Antonio (Swansea)

Not Up
Aguero

jimmii

shineon23 wrote: »

Up:
Mahrez, Zarate, Payet, Yaya

Yeh looks normal they were all pretty expected.

shineon23 wrote: »

Not Up
Aguero

Wait what.

manual_man

mahrez albrighton and barkley are atop of the scoring charts jimmii. nothing surprises me anymore

greedygoblin

shineon23 wrote: »

Not Up
Aguero

That's just mad. Aguero is at something like 166% now on FPLstats. Maybe wildcards don't count as much as we thought for price changes? Maybe they've got some weighting coefficient to prevent drastic swings when huge changes in ownership occur over a short period of time (like Aguero)?

iroced

shineon23 wrote: »

Up:
Mahrez, Zarate, Payet, Yaya


Down:
Lennon, Balotelli, Wisdom, Bradley Johnson, Nathan Dyer, Gouffran, Bolasie, Jedinak, Varela, Bony, Aarons , McNair, Cuadrado, Joshua King, Wimmer, Schweinsteiger, Macedo Lopes Ederzito Antonio (Swansea)

Not Up
Aguero

Just a question. On which site do you get the price changes updates?

---

Then. A bit of analyses. At 1am FPLS had


Zarate came much closer to 100% around the price change time (~ 3am).


Balotelli was at 95.something just below Ulloa (I remember seeing his name when I cropped the image ).


So the likes of Agüero, Kompany, Richards, Barkley, McCarthy & Darmian didn't rise.
And the likes of Wilson, Coates, Walcott, Mings, O'Shea, PVA didn't fall.

All these players are typical WC players. So in the end the only WC players who rose (Mahrez, Yaya & Payet) were popular before tonight WC madness.

So, I'm now not at all sure that WC transfers are included in the calculations.

Also, as FHFC stated earlier, FFF seems to be more accurate than FPLS. They were almost bang on for the "risers" (just got Agüero wrong) and had a few "droppers" overestimated (but small margin, max 10%). Is it just an adjustment of the algorithmn or does it really mean it's like last year WC transfers don't count? We'll certainly get a better idea in the coming days.


So far I'm happy I resisted the WC. If Agüero doesn't get a huge rise and Rooney a significant drop I may regret my only (so far) WC-panic move to get the Argentine superstar onboard :pac:...

Time for bed now .

Ziegler1988

Nice one, Aguero didn't rise. I got my Mahrez rise as expected and dodged any falls for the time being

spock.

shineon23 wrote: »

Not Up
Aguero

This has ruined my morning.

PARlance

At 13m... They may have just stepped in and protected Aguero. He would have hit 13.3 this week and potentially 13.6 next.

titan18

No fair. Same for no Richards, Barkley, Kompany or McCarthy rise