McGregor vs Aldo---December 12th **Main card 3am. Conor v Aldo approx 5am

Lukker-

themandan6611 wrote: »

Maybe his knee ain't as shot as it was for the mendes fight, along with that he stuffed 3-4 takedowns as it was.

You might also find that Aldo aint as hot as Mendes in the old wrestling front

Aldo's wrestling isn't as good but he is a former world champion at BJJ.

Mendes is more ground and pound and Conor's defensive BJJ was good enough to nullify it.

darced

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Lukker-

darced wrote: »

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Shur Gunnar didn't even wrestle in high school

darced

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Lukker-

darced wrote: »

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He is known for his grappling. GSP was one of the best wrestlers in UFC history and had no background in wrestling. Gunni has wrestled with him before he even joined the UFC and was praised by Kenny Florian as the only person he's seen in training who could keep up with him.

There'd be no point Conor training wrestling at this stage, he's better of just developing his defensive BJJ skills which suit his style and technique far more.

darced

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mdwexford

The fight will spend close to zero percent of the time on the ground imo.

Lukker-

darced wrote: »

Gunnar is known as a jiu jitsu guy,he isn't considered an elite wrestler either is Kenny Florian.

Why would there be no point training wrestling? How can having better defensive BJJ skills be considered a smarter option than improving his takedown defence.

Aldo will slice through that closed guard of conors.

Take down defence is part of BJJ too.

You think Aldo is gonna be shooting doubles?

If the fight goes to the ground it'll be from the clench.

Subcomandante Marcos

Lukker- wrote: »

Take down defence is part of BJJ too.

You think Aldo is gonna be shooting doubles?

If the fight goes to the ground it'll be from the clench.

Aldo is a blackbelt and former champion in Luta Livre, a Brazilian catch wrestling style which uses doubles, singles and some judo throws.

The reason he was so dominant in competitive bjj is because his wrestling gave him an advantage over the guys who only did jiu-jitsu.

These days all high level bjj players cross train with wrestlers because it's so important. Thats what makes the Marcelo Garcia and Cyborg Abreus of the world so damned good.

Mr. Manager

ComfortKid wrote: »

66/1 for McGregor by sub in the last.

Just lumped on 2euros

I'm not sure you understand the meaning of "lumping" on a bet... :P

ComfortKid

Mr. Manager wrote:

I'm not sure you understand the meaning of "lumping" on a bet...

I'm not sure you understood my sarcasm ;-)

VisibleGorilla

mdwexford wrote: »

The fight will spend close to zero percent of the time on the ground imo.

Why do you think that?

Mendes had him on the ground for a good bit, so why wouldn't Aldo do the same?

Especially as he knows Conor is lethal standing and doesn't have much of anything from the ground.

Saipanne

VisibleGorilla wrote: »

Why do you think that?

Mendes had him on the ground for a good bit, so why wouldn't Aldo do the same?

Especially as he knows Conor is lethal standing and doesn't have much of anything from the ground.

If McGregor didn't have much of anything on the ground, Mendes would have beaten him in round two.

dave1982

Saipanne wrote: »

If McGregor didn't have much of anything on the ground, Mendes would have beaten him in round two.

Conor gassed Mendes, Mendes had no energy left to finish the sub attempt. Conor has scar over his eye that'll probably open every fight he is in from now on.

I see Aldo testing conor on the feet if he feels he will have no success. I see fight going to ground.

One thing we learnt from Mendes fight is conor is beatable.

Imo Mendes has both rounds won till conor tko'd him

Saipanne

I would've given the first round to McGregor. It depends on what type of judge you are. Some give +100000 points for a take down. Some note the dominance of the octagon and how Mendes was pinned to the cage for when they were standing.

VisibleGorilla

Saipanne wrote: »

If McGregor didn't have much of anything on the ground, Mendes would have beaten him in round two.

Conor didn't win the fight due to his ground game, he finished the same way he finishes all his fights - the power from his straight left.

Mendes messed up going for the sub instead of just lying on him. Aldo will be able to do the same, he shouldn't get tired like Mendes and has the ability to keep Conor on the ground for the entire 5 rounds.

Conor can win this standing yes 100%, but Aldo has the option of taking it to the ground where he can grind it out for 5 rounds, sub or just smash into him.

ComfortKid

dave1982 wrote:

One thing we learnt from Mendes fight is conor is beatable.

We learned he is beatable in a fight he won? He lost 2 before Menes you know.

Saipanne

VisibleGorilla wrote: »

Conor didn't win the fight due to his ground game, he finished the same way he finishes all his fights - the power from his straight left.

Mendes messed up going for the sub instead of just lying on him. Aldo will be able to do the same, he shouldn't get tired like Mendes and has the ability to keep Conor on the ground for the entire 5 rounds.

Conor can win this standing yes 100%, but Aldo has the option of taking it to the ground where he can grind it out for 5 rounds, sub or just smash into him.

He did. If he had a poor ground game, he wouldn't have escaped the sub attempt. Instead he escaped and went on to win. I know Mendes was bate, but from videos I've watched McGregor didn't fluke his way out of it, he applied good technique.

Foxtrol

VisibleGorilla wrote: »

Conor didn't win the fight due to his ground game, he finished the same way he finishes all his fights - the power from his straight left.

Mendes messed up going for the sub instead of just lying on him. Aldo will be able to do the same, he shouldn't get tired like Mendes and has the ability to keep Conor on the ground for the entire 5 rounds.

Conor can win this standing yes 100%, but Aldo has the option of taking it to the ground where he can grind it out for 5 rounds, sub or just smash into him.

Without being able to train wresting before the fight Conor was able to stuff a number of Mendes’ takedowns and Mendes is a better wrestler than Aldo. Aldo maybe able to take him down at some point during each of the 5 rounds but I see no evidence that he'll be able to take him down straight from the bell and keep him there for the entire 5 rounds, which leaves Conor plenty of chances to hurt him on the feet.

dave1982

ComfortKid wrote: »

We learned he is beatable in a fight he won? He lost 2 before Menes you know.

Them fights happened years ago, you can't compare him then, to him now

Devastator

DOes anybody else get a really bad sickening feeling in their gut everytime they see new posts in this thread and think something bad has happened to the card?

Tazzimus

Saipanne wrote: »

He did. If he had a poor ground game, he wouldn't have escaped the sub attempt. Instead he escaped and went on to win. I know Mendes was bate, but from videos I've watched McGregor didn't fluke his way out of it, he applied good technique.

I think some people aren't appreciating how good that escape actually was. Didn't look like much but was very slick. We were shown that just after the fight and it's not overly simple, timing has to be spot on.

martyos121

Devastator wrote: »

DOes anybody else get a really bad sickening feeling in their gut everytime they see new posts in this thread and think something bad has happened to the card?

Every time. Said the same thing a few weeks ago, but now that it's even closer, the worry is growing. The fight seems too good to be true!

Lukker-

Lukker- wrote: »

If the fight goes to the ground it'll be from the clench.

I'll be the one clenching if Aldo takes him down

Devastator

martyos121 wrote: »

Every time. Said the same thing a few weeks ago, but now that it's even closer, the worry is growing. The fight seems too good to be true!

Whole card! I'm not a religious man but I've offered prayers to who(what)ever might be listening in the hope everyone stays fit/makes weight

martyos121

Devastator wrote: »

Whole card! I'm not a religious man but I've offered prayers to who(what)ever might be listening in the hope everyone stays fit/makes weight

Avoiding injuries is one thing, but if either McGregor or Rockhold come in a pound over weight, I'll blow my head off. Even a pound over and the belt is off the table. But sure that never happens! :pac:

_Ace_

Hopefully we're good.

I havent been this amped for a card since Ill Will.

Counting down the days on my calender!

JustTheOne

Interesting to see if conor goes for the kicks the way he did against Mendes.

They caused loads of damage to Mendes.

Lukker-

Deleted User wrote: »

I'll be the one clenching if Aldo takes him down

Haha I noticed it after posting but decided to leave it.

I think we all will , my buttocks were clenched for the majority of the Mendes fight :pac:

Lukker-

JustTheOne wrote: »

Interesting to see if conor goes for the kicks the way he did against Mendes.

They caused loads of damage to Mendes.

He probably will but for different reasons. Aldo will be more adept at stopping them doing damage with his excellent muay thai. I think he'll use side kicks to mantain distance, spinning back kicks to cut angles.

How Conor checks or counters his leg kicks will play a major role I think, if he gets a few good knee blocks in early it'll make Aldo think twice about throwing them. If Aldo can fire them at will I can only see the fight going one way.

mdwexford

VisibleGorilla wrote: »

Why do you think that?

Mendes had him on the ground for a good bit, so why wouldn't Aldo do the same?

Especially as he knows Conor is lethal standing and doesn't have much of anything from the ground.

I think Aldo will want to stand and trade as usual. He rarely goes for takedowns and I can't imagine that will be the gameplan here.

Mendes is a better wrestler than Aldo and he's that kind of fighter. I don't think Aldo would be able to continually take Conor down and keep him there.

Conor is a BJJ brown belt, he is very capable on the ground.

StringerBell

His ground defence is ok, nothing more, he is certainly far better in the stand up though, you are saying you think Aldo will play into his hands when he knows he other weapons that can hurt him? I think I have said already I expect Aldo to start trying to take it to the ground in round 2 after a round of stand up. Aldo is an intelligent fighter and I would expect him to see how he gets on in the stand up but if it isn't working then I have no doubt he will look to submit McGregor from the ground.

Saipanne

Ryan Hall: ‘The gulf between Conor and Jose on the ground is not what people might think’

http://www.the42.ie/ryan-hall-november-6-2015-2431127-Nov2015/

JustTheOne

Saipanne wrote: »

Ryan Hall: ‘The gulf between Conor and Jose on the ground is not what people might think’

http://www.the42.ie/ryan-hall-november-6-2015-2431127-Nov2015/

His takedown defence is ok at best though.

He was taken down way too easy against Mendes and even siver had him down but couldn't keep him there.

Has to try not to commit as much as he did against Mendes as he was just picking him off and taken him down every minute.

If Mendes bjj was better like aldos it could have been over in the first round.

xtal191

Saipanne wrote: »

Ryan Hall: ‘The gulf between Conor and Jose on the ground is not what people might think’

http://www.the42.ie/ryan-hall-november-6-2015-2431127-Nov2015/

Has Hall trained with both Aldo and McGregor?

Saipanne

xtal191 wrote: »

Has Hall trained with both Aldo and McGregor?

No, but I'd value his opinion on bjj over yours.

dave1982

Saipanne wrote: »

No, but I'd value his opinion on bjj over yours.

Well he's not gonna come out and say conor don't have a hope. It's a very biased interview. He said he knows gunner and kavanagh years. He has only rolled with conor...if he had trained with both, he could say there's not much difference between Aldo and McGregor but he hasn't.

Saipanne

dave1982 wrote: »

Well he's not gonna come out and say conor don't have a hope. It's a very biased interview. He said he knows gunner and kavanagh years. He has only rolled with conor...if he had trained with both, he could say there's not much difference between Aldo and McGregor but he hasn't.

He could have easily said nothing. But yeah, he might be biased. I know nothing about bjj. I can only rely on the experts.

Saipanne

30 ufc fighters call the fight. I'd say 70% call Aldo in it.

https://youtu.be/4dkVgigW9Tk

Foxtrol

Saipanne wrote: »

30 ufc fighters call the fight. I'd say 70% call Aldo in it.

https://youtu.be/4dkVgigW9Tk

Didn't they do one for before the Mendes fight that was similar or higher level in Conor's opponents favour?

Mellor

dave1982 wrote: »

Conor gassed Mendes, Mendes had no energy left to finish the sub attempt.

You don't last most of 2 rounds on the ground without being finished by having no ground game. Mendes wasn't trying to stay in Conor's guard.
Mendes didn't finish because Conor escaped. If he was a half-second slower it was fight over.

Tazzimus wrote: »

I think some people aren't appreciating how good that escape actually was. Didn't look like much but was very slick

^This. He didn't fall out of it because Mendes was tired.

martyos121 wrote: »

Avoiding injuries is one thing, but if either McGregor or Rockhold come in a pound over weight, I'll blow my head off. Even a pound over and the belt is off the table. But sure that never happens! :pac:

I imagine they'd get an hour or two and a second try to make weight.
Plus none of htem have a history of missing weight has had as issue making weight before.

stephenl15

Saipanne wrote: »

30 ufc fighters call the fight. I'd say 70% call Aldo in it.

https://youtu.be/4dkVgigW9Tk

Aldo - 16 - 50%
Conor - 13 - 40.6%
Neutral - 3 - 9.4%

Discount the neutrals and its 55% to 45% Aldo :P

Saipanne

stephenl15 wrote: »

Aldo - 16 - 50%
Conor - 13 - 40.6%
Neutral - 3 - 9.4%

Discount the neutrals and its 55% to 45% Aldo :P

Hah! Good man yourself!

stephenl15

Saipanne wrote: »

Hah! Good man yourself!

I'm bored

xtal191

Saipanne wrote: »

30 ufc fighters call the fight. I'd say 70% call Aldo in it.

https://youtu.be/4dkVgigW9Tk

I could be wrong but I think most of those predictions were made before Aldo pulled out and Conor beat Mendes, I'm sure some might've changed their mind since then.

Saipanne

I found a pair of analyses from the same channel. Brief, but good.

Aldo:

https://youtu.be/rxdaLd0wMLI


McGregor:

https://youtu.be/hT-h_pTqGyc

Todd Toddington III

Saipanne wrote:

30 ufc fighters call the fight. I'd say 70% call Aldo in it.

Nearly 50 50 on the winner, even the pros don't know! Man I can't wait. Getting a crew together to watch it in one of the guys gaffs. Gonna be some night.

Mellor

xtal191 wrote: »

I could be wrong but I think most of those predictions were made before Aldo pulled out and Conor beat Mendes, I'm sure some might've changed their mind since then.

Some are from UFC Glascow and Dublin which was after 189. And some are from UFC Krakow and Berlin which was before. And I think Sweden was in there too.

I imagine their will be an official fighter prediction fight week

dave1982

Mellor wrote: »

You don't last most of 2 rounds on the ground without being finished by having no ground game. Mendes wasn't trying to stay in Conor's guard.
Mendes didn't finish because Conor escaped. If he was a half-second slower it was fight over.

.

I didn't say he had no ground game, it's obvious he has, I'm just saying I believe if attempt was made early in 1st round. Chad may have finished it. He'd be that bit quicker to stop conor getting out of it.

Not taking way from conor he attacked body whenever he got chance which lead to Chad being tired so early.

Mellor

dave1982 wrote: »

I didn't say he had no ground game, it's obvious he has, I'm just saying I believe if attempt was made early in 1st round. Chad may have finished it. He'd be that bit quicker to stop conor getting out of it.

And Conor would have been quicker to defend. It works both ways.
The reason Mendes didn't attempt it in the first was that he wasn't able to. He got it down, but he wasn't passing at will. It's clearly not true that he "doesn't have much of anything from the ground".