trump becomes president 1000 euro at 25/1 on betfair

MyPeopleDrankTheSoup

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419

money flying in on betfair. it was 170million matched about 20 minutes ago.

crazy

did anyone actually Trump at long odds?

4068ac1elhodqr

georgiecasey wrote: »

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419

money flying in on betfair. it was 170million matched about 20 minutes ago.

crazy

did anyone actually Trump at long odds?

The early birds.
Is 10.0 long odds? Was that couple of hours ago.



Suppose I'd better offset and back HC at 2.1(+)

MyPeopleDrankTheSoup

ahhhh hiding your stake, no fun!

i was going to stick €100 on Hillary a few minutes ago until I saw NYT prediction had switched to Trump

MyPeopleDrankTheSoup

georgiecasey wrote: »

i'm thinking of putting €5000 on hillary to win. i think it's an absolute lock.

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

In that case between around Oct 1 - Oct 13th 2015 would have been the ideal time to have done that, when she was available at x2.5, now it's x1.9.

Your best plan would be to wait for x2.35 or higher to reappear during the year which is bound to happen at some stage, if even for a short while on the back of a media Exposé, poll results or maybe just a bad day at Q&A session.

Unless of course you have a few of the other main contenders already at double digits, then its a great time.

you'll be happy to know my father talked me out of that €5k bet...

4068ac1elhodqr

georgiecasey wrote: »

ahhhh hiding your stake, no fun!

i was going to stick €100 on Hillary a few minutes ago until I saw NYT prediction had switched to Trump

True, multiples as selection on accumulators, don't want to jinx all the other selections, karmic resonance and all that jazz. Some night so far...

4068ac1elhodqr

3am odds, and great value for any HC fans out there:

Mellor

Where's that Walter Mitty fella wafflingabout 7 figure bets on Brexit and Hillary, lololol

moneymad

moneymad wrote: »

Can't wait to collect my winnings.

Great call

4068ac1elhodqr

Mellor wrote: »

Where's that Walter Mitty fella wafflingabout 7 figure bets on Brexit and Hillary, lololol

That was some carry on, driving around looking to dump monkeys and grand @1.2 with absolute sureness. In all seriousness, never back anything at 1.2 folks.

mansize

moneymad wrote: »

Can't wait to collect my winnings.

Enjoy

Mellor

mansize wrote: »

Enjoy

He never placed the bet, kicking himself obviously

beertons

Well feck him anyway. I was coming on looking for a screenshot of the winnings.

Red Kev

Well well well..........

efb wrote: »

Good luck with that...

Arbitrary wrote: »

Great if you took this bet as a lay, 1k just went up in smoke otherwise.

Realist2 wrote: »

was 100/1 a couple of weeks ago, do u not know by now that american presidents are selected not elected, you need to get informed, u were better off throwing your money into the shannon.

Realist2 wrote: »

, Hilary is in the group, she will be next president, wake up people please

matthew8 wrote: »

He has no chance whatsoever at the presidency. It would be an outstanding lay if it didn't take so long to come in (even if you waited for him to inevitably start to lose interest or say something even more stupid so you could back it at 1000 that could take a while). Polling well right now means very little, Herman Cain polled well for a time too in the last cycle, novelty candidates always drop out.

Canadel wrote: »

Of the USA?

Hilarious how underestimated Hillary is. Her biggest mistake was being born a woman.

.........Of course hindsight is a great thing

duffman13 wrote: »

Screenshot or gtfo

^ And that is the defining comment. We saw no screenshot or pic of the slip, so I doubt the bet was ever made.

Fair play for the call all the same.

Mellor

Red Kev wrote: »

^ And that is the defining comment. We saw no screenshot or pic of the slip, so I doubt the bet was ever made.

Fair play for the call all the same.

I'm guessing you missed his second post

moneymad wrote: »

Hi all i posted the bet of the year, however i didn't have the 1000 at the time to put it on.

Said after that he put 100 on, but no screenshot either

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

James Bond Junior

Would any bookies give odds on trump being assassinated while in office I wonder? Excuse my bad taste!

mailburner

Charity10k wrote: »

You seem to think that Americans always vote logically and elect the best person for the job.

so true :pac:

Fred Swanson wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

isn't it great though

the groutch

georgiecasey wrote: »

ahhhh hiding your stake, no fun!

he's the king of photoshop (and aftertiming)

Busyness1

Arbitrary wrote: »

Great if you took this bet as a lay, 1k just went up in smoke otherwise.

Say what?

maximum12

Fred Swanson wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

they don't get burnt. Relatively little money is staked on these events and they get publicity from the early pay outs.

Arbitrary

Busyness1 wrote: »

Say what?

I'll respond shortly, just let me finish my breakfast.

superfurry1

Never thought humble pie was that tasty

mansize

Fred Swanson wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

I don't think he lost that much

Effects

Fred Swanson wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

What's the benefit to them for paying out early, even if they happened to be right?

Allinall

Effects wrote: »

What's the benefit to them for paying out early, even if they happened to be right?

Free publicity.

Copper_pipe

Some lad in a boyles shop had

10k at 7/2

12k at 3/1

Mellor

maximum12 wrote: »

they don't get burnt. Relatively little money is staked on these events and they get publicity from the early pay outs.

Relatively little?

$120m was matched on betfair. Probably the biggest market on all time.

tinpib

Mellor wrote: »

$120m was matched on betfair. Probably the biggest market on all time.

It was US$170mill when I went to bed at 2am Irish time, any idea what the final total was?

maximum12

Mellor wrote: »

Relatively little?

$120m was matched on betfair. Probably the biggest market on all time.

The big money will be on the exchanges. What would anyone bet more than a tenner on Paddypower odds.

Bowlardo

moneymad wrote: »

Can't wait to collect my winnings.

Fair play to you. What was he last night around 7-1. Had a feeling it was going to be brexit part 2

4068ac1elhodqr

Bowlardo wrote: »

Fair play to you. What was he last night around 7-1. Had a feeling it was going to be brexit part 2

Was available at 10.0 (9/1) at around 2am.

Next on the political radar is Marine Le Pen to give another wake up call to the Establishment.

Available (shortened) @3.75, best to wait for higher numerals as price has been cut back overnight.

Mantis Toboggan

Realist2 wrote: »

was 100/1 a couple of weeks ago, do u not know by now that american presidents are selected not elected, you need to get informed, u were better off throwing your money into the shannon.

Hmmm, think I'll be taking my financial advice from Moneymad

SteM

Betfair bets aren't settled early though. Powers settled back in October and it cost them €1m'ish iirc. They got great publicity from it though.

Shanotheslayer

https://gyazo.com/034e0a8f8eaf81a8c52d998f10569100

https://gyazo.com/7387970ae88bcdc81a7aeeba3266ff5a

Took these last night

Glenbhoy

maximum12 wrote: »

The big money will be on the exchanges. What would anyone bet more than a tenner on Paddypower odds.

I actually can't bet more than that on politics, not restricted elsewhere on the site though, I think it stems back to 3 winning bets at around 10/1 in 2008 (I kid you not).

Remember when talking about the amounts on betfair that the total is double the amount staked, ie they add the amount backed and layed (when in reality it's the same money, 2 sides of the same coin etc).

Mellor

maximum12 wrote: »

The big money will be on the exchanges. What would anyone bet more than a tenner on Paddypower odds.

A tenner, apparently not, see below

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Some lad in a boyles shop had

10k at 7/2

12k at 3/1

Mellor

SteM wrote: »

Betfair bets aren't settled early though. Powers settled back in October and it cost them €1m'ish iirc. They got great publicity from it though.

I wasn't suggesting they were settled early, I was using it to indicated the interest of the market.
This is obviously bigger than any bookies liability

Glenbhoy wrote: »

Remember when talking about the amounts on betfair that the total is double the amount staked, ie they add the amount backed and layed (when in reality it's the same money, 2 sides of the same coin etc).

It's not really the same money? Both sides of the coin are funded by separate balances.

If I back an 3.0 shot for $1,000, and you lay my bet for $2,000. (it's a quiet market, just me and you)
The money traded is listed as is $3,000. When it settles, the winner collects $3,000.


Which means today $150m or more is the real money divided out today

ianburke

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

That was some carry on, driving around looking to dump monkeys and grand @1.2 with absolute sureness. In all seriousness, never back anything at 1.2 folks.

his resume is incredible. if he comes back here i will send him 100 euro for his next cert. i promise that. an oscars 1/7 shot, brexit and now this. in between he did manage a mrs browns boys winner to be fair. he was quite a character.

interesting thing about these election bets were the polls saying it was very close. yet the two winning sides were like 7/1 before a vote was counted. brexit went 1.08 before the first count and clinton the same. so those guys getting those odds on a seemingly 40% shot could do no wrong win or lose.

4068ac1elhodqr

.

4068ac1elhodqr

Agree, some silly predictions from that chap, he was also convinced of Osbourne to replace Dave.

One thing to note in this novelty/politics game is that apart from very early selection prices, the real juice and high liquidity is just before the final close of live exchange & trading markets.

The Trumpquake was at least 10.0 around 3am, just before the paid-for HC hyperbole went off a cliff-face.
Brexit was at similar double-digit numberals, until Sunderland blasted a wake up call to Dave in the wee small hours.
UKGE, to be fair was around 13.0 for at least a few days before folks chose a ConMaj, over that nerdy chap, now forever consigned to memory as eating a bacon sandwich in the front page of the tabloids.

LePen is way down to 2.5, wouldn't touch that until it went double-digits, all it needs is some sort of scandal or more likely, biased media polling.

Would have loved to see Nigel in the Celeb Jungle, EP was 21.0, but since voided - as he wouldn't play ball even for the easy £1m appearance fee.

Copper_pipe

Mellor wrote: »

A tenner, apparently not, see below

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/someone-just-bet-22k-on-trump-to-be-president-763149.html

4068ac1elhodqr

Copper_pipe wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/someone-just-bet-22k-on-trump-to-be-president-763149.html

Guess they would like to get Toupee'd.

Copper_pipe

Anyone fancy anything here

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/donald-trump-specials/donald-trump-specials

ChikiChiki

Wouldn't be a gambling man but I was banging onto my mate who works for PP that Trump was going to win for the last few weeks whilst keeping an eye on the prices. Really there has to be a more accurate way of predicting. Polls and bookies got it wrong when all the evidence was there that Trump was a popular candidate.

Marine Le Pen is the bet to do for the French Presidency next year imo.

4068ac1elhodqr

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Anyone fancy anything here

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/donald-trump-specials/donald-trump-specials

Nigel @21 as Don's the EU Ambassador, Betway is going blue, and could be tasty as he's no longer going to the Celeb Jungle.

BW also (usually) allow accumulators within Novelties, 'wan from X-Factoring - Middlemass (2F), could make it a jolly Christmass.

Was looking for Mr Facebook 100/1+ (Zuckerberg) POTUS2020, but not added as yet.

MayoSalmon

Great thread

tinodz

I am actively looking to bet on Dwayne Johnson for the 2020 election.

I will happily toss money at that if a bookie puts it up and let it sit for 4 years

tinodz

I am actively looking to bet on Dwayne Johnson for the 2020 election.

I will happily toss money at that if a bookie puts it up and let it sit for 4 years

Agent Smith

tinodz wrote: »

I am actively looking to bet on Dwayne Johnson for the 2020 election.

I will happily toss money at that if a bookie puts it up and let it sit for 4 years

How much we talking?

tinodz

Agent Smith wrote: »

How much we talking?

Nothing massive. There is zero chance of me going into the €1000s like in the OP. Maybe €100ish though? Especially if big odds were available

I feel like it would be something that might go up a much larger odds, but shorten over time. Of all the celebrities that could show up now that Trump happened, I feel he would be one of the few motivated to push it he furthest.

He is Republican, but has recently spoken out against many Republican, so he cares about the current political climate in his country.

I am probably putting to much thought in this :pac: