trump becomes president 1000 euro at 25/1 on betfair

4068ac1elhodqr

Bowlardo wrote: »

Fair play to you. What was he last night around 7-1. Had a feeling it was going to be brexit part 2

Was available at 10.0 (9/1) at around 2am.

Next on the political radar is Marine Le Pen to give another wake up call to the Establishment.

Available (shortened) @3.75, best to wait for higher numerals as price has been cut back overnight.

Mantis Toboggan

Realist2 wrote: »

was 100/1 a couple of weeks ago, do u not know by now that american presidents are selected not elected, you need to get informed, u were better off throwing your money into the shannon.

Hmmm, think I'll be taking my financial advice from Moneymad

SteM

Betfair bets aren't settled early though. Powers settled back in October and it cost them €1m'ish iirc. They got great publicity from it though.

Shanotheslayer

https://gyazo.com/034e0a8f8eaf81a8c52d998f10569100

https://gyazo.com/7387970ae88bcdc81a7aeeba3266ff5a

Took these last night

Glenbhoy

maximum12 wrote: »

The big money will be on the exchanges. What would anyone bet more than a tenner on Paddypower odds.

I actually can't bet more than that on politics, not restricted elsewhere on the site though, I think it stems back to 3 winning bets at around 10/1 in 2008 (I kid you not).

Remember when talking about the amounts on betfair that the total is double the amount staked, ie they add the amount backed and layed (when in reality it's the same money, 2 sides of the same coin etc).

Mellor

maximum12 wrote: »

The big money will be on the exchanges. What would anyone bet more than a tenner on Paddypower odds.

A tenner, apparently not, see below

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Some lad in a boyles shop had

10k at 7/2

12k at 3/1

Mellor

SteM wrote: »

Betfair bets aren't settled early though. Powers settled back in October and it cost them €1m'ish iirc. They got great publicity from it though.

I wasn't suggesting they were settled early, I was using it to indicated the interest of the market.
This is obviously bigger than any bookies liability

Glenbhoy wrote: »

Remember when talking about the amounts on betfair that the total is double the amount staked, ie they add the amount backed and layed (when in reality it's the same money, 2 sides of the same coin etc).

It's not really the same money? Both sides of the coin are funded by separate balances.

If I back an 3.0 shot for $1,000, and you lay my bet for $2,000. (it's a quiet market, just me and you)
The money traded is listed as is $3,000. When it settles, the winner collects $3,000.


Which means today $150m or more is the real money divided out today

ianburke

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

That was some carry on, driving around looking to dump monkeys and grand @1.2 with absolute sureness. In all seriousness, never back anything at 1.2 folks.

his resume is incredible. if he comes back here i will send him 100 euro for his next cert. i promise that. an oscars 1/7 shot, brexit and now this. in between he did manage a mrs browns boys winner to be fair. he was quite a character.

interesting thing about these election bets were the polls saying it was very close. yet the two winning sides were like 7/1 before a vote was counted. brexit went 1.08 before the first count and clinton the same. so those guys getting those odds on a seemingly 40% shot could do no wrong win or lose.

4068ac1elhodqr

.

4068ac1elhodqr

Agree, some silly predictions from that chap, he was also convinced of Osbourne to replace Dave.

One thing to note in this novelty/politics game is that apart from very early selection prices, the real juice and high liquidity is just before the final close of live exchange & trading markets.

The Trumpquake was at least 10.0 around 3am, just before the paid-for HC hyperbole went off a cliff-face.
Brexit was at similar double-digit numberals, until Sunderland blasted a wake up call to Dave in the wee small hours.
UKGE, to be fair was around 13.0 for at least a few days before folks chose a ConMaj, over that nerdy chap, now forever consigned to memory as eating a bacon sandwich in the front page of the tabloids.

LePen is way down to 2.5, wouldn't touch that until it went double-digits, all it needs is some sort of scandal or more likely, biased media polling.

Would have loved to see Nigel in the Celeb Jungle, EP was 21.0, but since voided - as he wouldn't play ball even for the easy £1m appearance fee.

Copper_pipe

Mellor wrote: »

A tenner, apparently not, see below

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/someone-just-bet-22k-on-trump-to-be-president-763149.html

4068ac1elhodqr

Copper_pipe wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/someone-just-bet-22k-on-trump-to-be-president-763149.html

Guess they would like to get Toupee'd.

Copper_pipe

Anyone fancy anything here

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/donald-trump-specials/donald-trump-specials

ChikiChiki

Wouldn't be a gambling man but I was banging onto my mate who works for PP that Trump was going to win for the last few weeks whilst keeping an eye on the prices. Really there has to be a more accurate way of predicting. Polls and bookies got it wrong when all the evidence was there that Trump was a popular candidate.

Marine Le Pen is the bet to do for the French Presidency next year imo.

4068ac1elhodqr

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Anyone fancy anything here

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/donald-trump-specials/donald-trump-specials

Nigel @21 as Don's the EU Ambassador, Betway is going blue, and could be tasty as he's no longer going to the Celeb Jungle.

BW also (usually) allow accumulators within Novelties, 'wan from X-Factoring - Middlemass (2F), could make it a jolly Christmass.

Was looking for Mr Facebook 100/1+ (Zuckerberg) POTUS2020, but not added as yet.

MayoSalmon

Great thread

tinodz

I am actively looking to bet on Dwayne Johnson for the 2020 election.

I will happily toss money at that if a bookie puts it up and let it sit for 4 years

tinodz

I am actively looking to bet on Dwayne Johnson for the 2020 election.

I will happily toss money at that if a bookie puts it up and let it sit for 4 years

Agent Smith

tinodz wrote: »

I am actively looking to bet on Dwayne Johnson for the 2020 election.

I will happily toss money at that if a bookie puts it up and let it sit for 4 years

How much we talking?

tinodz

Agent Smith wrote: »

How much we talking?

Nothing massive. There is zero chance of me going into the €1000s like in the OP. Maybe €100ish though? Especially if big odds were available

I feel like it would be something that might go up a much larger odds, but shorten over time. Of all the celebrities that could show up now that Trump happened, I feel he would be one of the few motivated to push it he furthest.

He is Republican, but has recently spoken out against many Republican, so he cares about the current political climate in his country.

I am probably putting to much thought in this :pac:

Degag

James Bond Junior wrote: »

Would any bookies give odds on trump being assassinated while in office I wonder? Excuse my bad taste!

Not in those words but they'll probably have odds on him not making it through his first term. PP did with Obama anyway... it was 7/1.

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

4068ac1elhodqr

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

Nigel @21 as Don's the EU Ambassador

Cut to 6.0 on Betway, they would make a great lively pair of chuckle brothers, and would have that shifty JC-Juncker chap sweating.

Wouldn't touch anything that has 2020 in it, apart from Next Pres. You'd be better off seeking 4yrs of Compound Interest at 5%, getting 121.55%.

tinodz

tinodz wrote: »

I am actively looking to bet on Dwayne Johnson for the 2020 election.

I will happily toss money at that if a bookie puts it up and let it sit for 4 years

Oh...

http://www.cbr.com/dwayne-johnson-teases-2020-presidential-run-i-wouldnt-rule-it-out/


Still no odds available I can see

Mysterypunter

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Some lad in a boyles shop had

10k at 7/2

12k at 3/1

Sure he did. Boyles wouldn't lay a tenner ew on a 16/1 chance. Said I can have 8ew. Wouldn't lay 50ew on a horse @8/1, said you can have 100 win.

DontThankMe

Mysterypunter wrote: »

Sure he did. Boyles wouldn't lay a tenner ew on a 16/1 chance. Said I can have 8ew. Wouldn't lay 50ew on a horse @8/1, said you can have 100 win.

http://www.tv3.ie/xpose/article/entertainment-news/222335/Someone-in-Dublin-put-a-HUGE-bet-on-Trump-to-win
http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/election-irish-punter-bet-22000-9220583
http://betting.boylesports.com/politics/traders-rattled-e22000-trump-bet

matthew8

It would be much easier for Boyles, or any other bookie, to accept a giant bet on the presidential election (as opposed to a horse race), given they could hedge their bets on the betfair market, which was the most liquid market in betfair history.

Peintre Celebre

DontThankMe wrote: »

http://www.tv3.ie/xpose/article/entertainment-news/222335/Someone-in-Dublin-put-a-HUGE-bet-on-Trump-to-win
http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/election-irish-punter-bet-22000-9220583
http://betting.boylesports.com/politics/traders-rattled-e22000-trump-bet

All coming from Boyles' original claim. BS I'd say

okidoki987

Probably true.
They gave him the 1st bet at 7/2 and then gave him 3/1 on the balance.
Betfair was 5.0 all day that bet was placed so they could have hedged if needed.
Surprised he didn't go elsewhere as it was higher odds elsewhere.
Can't remember the final figure for Betfair exchange turnover on it but it was massive the day before.

Mellor

okidoki987 wrote: »

Probably true.
They gave him the 1st bet at 7/2 and then gave him 3/1 on the balance.
Betfair was 5.0 all day that bet was placed so they could have hedged if needed.

They probably did, which means they either had a €19k freeroll on Trump, or €3,400 for Hillary.
This was a zero risk market for the bookie if he was smart.

Can't remember the final figure for Betfair exchange turnover on it but it was massive the day before.

140-180million I believe