Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

JCX BXC

droidman123 wrote: »

i,m just living in the real world and not fantasy island

Didn't you just prove my point?

wishful thinking.by your own admission

When did I say that?

nobody can forecast the weather for 2/3 months ahead but you gripe at me and not the consistant drivel being posted here about "oh i have a feeling we are in for a cold winter" or oh i,m forecasting a mild and damp winter ahead" etc etc. My opinion is based on fact,not what i have a feeling about.

My problem is that you come across as people are not allowed have an opinion that's not yours, I too get annoyed at the daily mail type posts.

droidman123

Carnacalla wrote: »

Didn't you just prove my point?

When did I say that?



My problem is that you come across as people are not allowed have an opinion that's not yours, I too get annoyed at the daily mail type posts.

You mis quoted me above,i didnt day it was wishful thinking on your behalf,i said by your own admission the weather cant be forecast for 2/3 months ahead

JCX BXC

droidman123 wrote: »

You mis quoted me above,i didnt day it was wishful thinking on your behalf,i said by your own admission the weather cant be forecast for 2/3 months ahead

What i can agree with is that it cannot be forecasted to the same degree as day next weeks weather. Long term patterns should give us an idea though.

droidman123

Heres the thing,and you can obviously agree or disagree.people want to hear that we are gonna have the mother of all snowfalls,mega storms,heatwaves in the 30,s,floods etc.why that excites people i dont know,but my point is that people will believe the forecasts that are extreme rather than the mundane ones.

Iancar29

droidman123 wrote: »

The funny thing is,there are actually some people on here that have themselves convinced that they CAN predict the weather for Ireland that far ahead,and even funnier,there are some people that actually believe it!

Theres a difference between a forecast calling for " mega snow storms on thr 22nd of December " and another just predicting larger scale synoptic patterns. It's the latter that has been proven increasingly reliable in recent years. MOGREPS and JMA being examples of these which have done well in the last 3/4 years.

Clonmel1000

Go back and look at some of the stuff posted in last years winter thread. Wishful thinking is a kind way of describing it.

We are all weather lovers I respect all the contributions made here and enjoy the debate. However when I started questioning peoples guess work v the reality last year I got several PMs aaking me to stop questioning some of the nonsense being posted.

Keep up the great work though look forward to the chat and discussion this winter.

NMB

droidman123 wrote: »

Heres the thing,and you can obviously agree or disagree.people want to hear that we are gonna have the mother of all snowfalls,mega storms,heatwaves in the 30,s,floods etc.why that excites people i dont know,but my point is that people will believe the forecasts that are extreme rather than the mundane ones.

I know why it excites people, oh I love to get excited. Even to the point of checking a computer screen sitting in front of a window and wishing to God one of them was true ...... and it's never the outside of my window.

FWVT

Droidman and others, I think the problem is that you don't understand the difference between long-range forecasting and "normal" forecasting. Long-range does not involve forecasting individual events. It involves looking at larger factors of long temporal scales that would suggest certain preferred setups. Knowing how these setups work it is then easier to estimate what type of weather should be prevalent. For example, higher height anomalies over Greenland/Iceland would suggest a greater occurrence of northerly flows over Ireland. This would then mean colder and possibly snowier periods than if that northerly blocking were absent.

Please consider this the next time you go off on one.

Oneiric 3

FWVT wrote: »

Knowing how these setups work it is then easier to estimate what type of weather should be prevalent. For example, higher height anomalies over Greenland/Iceland would suggest a greater occurrence of northerly flows over Ireland. This would then mean colder and possibly snowier periods than if that northerly blocking were absent.

But isn't 'northern blocking' likely to happen at some stage (or stages) in an average winter anyway? Predicting cold spells in winter is hardly innovative. Of course, predicting how long such spells are likely to last is another story.

droidman123

FWVT wrote: »

Droidman and others, I think the problem is that you don't understand the difference between long-range forecasting and "normal" forecasting. Long-range does not involve forecasting individual events. It involves looking at larger factors of long temporal scales that would suggest certain preferred setups. Knowing how these setups work it is then easier to estimate what type of weather should be prevalent. For example, higher height anomalies over Greenland/Iceland would suggest a greater occurrence of northerly flows over Ireland. This would then mean colder and possibly snowier periods than if that northerly blocking were absent.

Please consider this the next time you go off on one.

I will make no appologies for giving my opinion here, i stand by everything i said.long range forecasting is folly,cant be done.one can study patterns,trends and anything else,doesnt change a thing.there is NO science available yet to accurately forecast irelands weather 2/3 months in advance.yes "maybes" and "possibilites" can be somewhat worked out,but thats a million miles away from accruately long range forecasting,and i dont believe it will ever happen in my lifetime,if ever. Mother nature has way too many variables up her sleeve.

JCX BXC

droidman123 wrote: »

I will make no appologies for giving my opinion here,

Ignoring the rest of your points (like you did mine) I have to say no one wants you to make apologies for your opinion, but you can't expect others to either.

Eugene Norman

FWVT wrote: »

Droidman and others, I think the problem is that you don't understand the difference between long-range forecasting and "normal" forecasting. Long-range does not involve forecasting individual events. It involves looking at larger factors of long temporal scales that would suggest certain preferred setups. Knowing how these setups work it is then easier to estimate what type of weather should be prevalent. For example, higher height anomalies over Greenland/Iceland would suggest a greater occurrence of northerly flows over Ireland. This would then mean colder and possibly snowier periods than if that northerly blocking were absent.

Please consider this the next time you go off on one.

He's generally taking pot shots at MT.

I've just done a search for MT's 2010 winter forecast. The search isn't great here. I'd didn't find that but I found a post on the winter forecast thread for that year where he was predicting a very cold three months.

doccy

droidman123 wrote: »

I will make no appologies for giving my opinion here, i stand by everything i said.long range forecasting is folly,cant be done.one can study patterns,trends and anything else,doesnt change a thing.there is NO science available yet to accurately forecast irelands weather 2/3 months in advance.yes "maybes" and "possibilites" can be somewhat worked out,but thats a million miles away from accruately long range forecasting,and i dont believe it will ever happen in my lifetime,if ever. Mother nature has way too many variables up her sleeve.

Might help if you actually read, and tried to understand. the post you were replying to.

droidman123

Eugene Norman wrote: »

He's generally taking pot shots at MT.

I've just done a search for MT's 2010 winter forecast. The search isn't great here. I'd didn't find that but I found a post on the winter forecast thread for that year where he was predicting a very cold three months.

I am not taking "potshots" at anyone! I specifically said on many occasions my posts were aimed at no one in particular.

Oneiric 3

Generally, though I have no faith in long-range forecasts, I do have regard for M.Ts seasonal forecasts as they do have a good degree of accuracy about them, and the evidence is on these threads for all to see. M.T, unlike other charlatans out there that gain far more publicity for unfounded and ridiculous outlooks, does use an incredibly complex methodology that is based both on statistical reasoning and from his own experience. I had the honour of seeing just one of his datasets a few years back that he uses to analysis trends and I can tell you, it was unfathomably daunting just to look at, not mind to comprehend.

I think any long-range winter forecast that focuses almost exclusively on whether or not 'northern blocking' will build or how much snow will fall (which is about 99% of them) are the one's to bin and in this regard, Droidman123's controversial assessments are correct.

droidman123

doccy wrote: »

Might help if you actually read, and tried to understand. the post you were replying to.

I read fwvt,s post and understood it perfectly,it was actually a point well made, I just didn't agree with a lot of it.

United road

Eugene Norman wrote: »

He's generally taking pot shots at MT.

sorry, but i dont think thats fair, personally i do not think he is taking pot shots at MT at all.
He is stating his opinion on long term forecasts, like me he is not convinced by them. I fully respect MT and the efforts he goes too on this forum 365 days a year.
Speaking for myself, i have been left disapointed by his winter forecasts in early Nov for the past 3 years, simply as they were not what i was wanting to hear or what he had eluded too regarding snow in my back garden, that backs up the folly of long range forecasting.
But i will never shoot him down for predicting nor his efforts that it must take to make those predictions.
Let me be clear and say, i respect what MT does here and i know he is closer then most on his day of calling things right.
(Im always mindful that people like me appear here in winter and then head off again early March, so i would never question such a valuable resource such as MT)
But the truth is that what he is predicting based on trends ect is not set in stone,
I wish he was always right but reality is he could never be.
The only concern i have is when posters state its crazy to predict that far ahead and they are questioned, droidman is the latest case, i recall Clonmel getting this last year too, no one is attacking anyone or taking pot shots, its just good natured debate. It makes the site for me as good as it is.
I hope we dont lose that.
We lose our snow at the eleventh hour every time, so hopefully not the debate too!

FWVT

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

But isn't 'northern blocking' likely to happen at some stage (or stages) in an average winter anyway? Predicting cold spells in winter is hardly innovative. Of course, predicting how long such spells are likely to last is another story.

Northerly blocking was just an example. I could equally have said the chances of a Bartlett high bringing milder than average conditions, which could come about from a neutral to positive NAO, which can be favoured by some other teleconnections, etc. These are climatological, statistical values allowing assessment of analogue years, but of course the problem is our relatively low dataset.

I still say that some people are confusing the Madden, Ring et al. fraudcasts with more honest, educated assessments, such as MT's, etc. Nobody can predict a white christmas from now or a snowy period the 3rd and 4th week of March, bit that's not what we're talking about here.

FWVT

United road wrote: »

Eugene Norman wrote: »

He's generally taking pot shots at MT.


Speaking for myself, i have been left disapointed by his winter forecasts in early Nov for the past 3 years, simply as they were not what i was wanting to hear or what he had eluded too regarding snow in my back garden, that backs up the folly of long range forecasting.

Therin lies the problem. People only want to hear one thing and one thing only, and that is the shíte that appears from Not-an-idea Rao and his friend Maddman. This clickbait is also what drives this forum at times ridiculous with people writing off the winter in October, before it's even begun.

doccy

droidman123 wrote: »

I read fwvt,s post and understood it perfectly,it was actually a point well made, I just didn't agree with a lot of it.

Fair enough, you're entitled to your opinion.The point he makes about "difference between long-range forecasting and "normal" forecasting" etc is essentially correct, whether you or I believe it though. Thats the rub.

droidman123

doccy wrote: »

Fair enough, you're entitled to your opinion.The point he makes about "difference between long-range forecasting and "normal" forecasting" etc is essentially correct, whether you or I believe it though. Thats the rub.

It wasn't a case of disagreeing with it or not, there's just no way to accruatly forecast Ireland's weather 2/3 months ahead.I still don't know what part of that people don't agree with and why after all this time.

JCX BXC

droidman123 wrote: »

It wasn't a case of disagreeing with it or not, there's just no way to accruatly forecast Ireland's weather 2/3 months ahead.I still don't know what part of that people don't agree with and why after all this time.

Stop stating your opinion as fact first of all. Thanks

Oneiric 3

FWVT wrote: »

Northerly blocking was just an example. I could equally have said the chances of a Bartlett high bringing milder than average conditions.

I figured that, I just used your example as an example. Bottom line is, Irish winters are rarely exciting, regardless of what pattern is dominant at any one time.

Trogdor

droidman123 wrote: »

It wasn't a case of disagreeing with it or not, there's just no way to accruatly forecast Ireland's weather 2/3 months ahead.I still don't know what part of that people don't agree with and why after all this time.

I know this has been repeated many times already at this stage, but the seasonal forecasts are not trying to predict specific weather events (the more educated forecasts at least), they are analysing the probabilities of different possible types of meteorological set ups over longer periods of time and thus giving a guess at how the whole season (or at least extended periods of time within the season) will vary compared to the norm.

I think another point that should be mentioned is that if we give up on forecasting after getting it wrong a few times we'd never be able to predict anything at any time scale. The first attempt at numerical weather prediction (only trying to forecast 6 hours ahead) produced a predicted pressure change which was wrong by orders of magnitude and yet now we can forecast with reasonable accuracy out to 5/6 days.

Likewise with seasonal forecasts, the only way to make progress is to make the forecasts and assess how well (or not) they verify afterwards. Nobody should be putting blind faith in any of these forecasts but through repeated attempts the forecasts can be improved bit by bit. Even if it is your view that at the moment that they are useless I would still say it is better to keep trying than to give up and make no progress at all.

Eugene Norman

Carnacalla wrote: »

Stop stating your opinion as fact first of all. Thanks

It's just so annoying. People reply back to him with reasoned posts about the science of long term forecasting, a science admittedly in its infancy, and he spouts the same mantra.

JCX BXC

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I figured that, I just used your example as an example. Bottom line is, Irish winters are rarely exciting, regardless of what pattern is dominant at any one time.

I have to disagree, I find the odd powerful wind and rain storm exciting, although admittedly not as much as snow.

droidman123

Trogdor wrote: »

I know this has been repeated many times already at this stage, but the seasonal forecasts are not trying to predict specific weather events (the more educated forecasts at least), they are analysing the probabilities of different possible types of meteorological set ups over longer periods of time and thus giving a guess at how the whole season (or at least extended periods of time within the season) will vary compared to the norm.

I think another point that should be mentioned is that if we give up on forecasting after getting it wrong a few times we'd never be able to predict anything at any time scale. The first attempt at numerical weather prediction (only trying to forecast 6 hours ahead) produced a predicted pressure change which was wrong by orders of magnitude and yet now we can forecast with reasonable accuracy out to 5/6 days.

Likewise with seasonal forecasts, the only way to make progress is to make the forecasts and assess how well (or not) they verify afterwards. Nobody should be putting blind faith in any of these forecasts but through repeated attempts the forecasts can be improved bit by bit. Even if it is your view that at the moment that they are useless I would still say it is better to keep trying than to give up and make no progress at all.

A very well made point and i totally understand where you are coming from,but this part is the part i have a problem with ....... "they are analysing the probabilities of different possible types of meteorological set ups over longer periods of time and thus giving a guess at how the whole season (or at least extended periods of time within the season) will vary compared to the norm.". " propabilites" "possible" "guess". I dont mean to pick those words out of context but they highlight what my point is.it doesnt matter to me at all how many long range forecasts are made about irelands weather and by who,i treat them all with the same contempt as madden,ring,etc etc.i know i am being simplistic,but if anyone tries to tell me what the weather is going to be like in ireland come dec/jan/feb i wont be taking it in anyway seriously because it cant be done accuratly.i have been saying this over and over but people keep putting a different slant on what i am saying and twisting things.i have been called names, had vitriolic replies and smartass comments so thank you for your civillised post.99.9℅....propably 100 ℅, of the people on here know more about weather charts,trends,patterns etc than i do and i never claimed otherwise.most of the knowledgeable posters have been adult and incitful and i have learned a lot on here,but i am sticking to my original opinion about accuratly being able to forecast irelands weather 2/3 months ahead,cant be done by any means.

FWVT

droidman123 wrote: »

A very well made point and i totally understand where you are coming from,but this part is the part i have a problem with ....... "they are analysing the probabilities of different possible types of meteorological set ups over longer periods of time and thus giving a guess at how the whole season (or at least extended periods of time within the season) will vary compared to the norm.". " propabilites" "possible" "guess". I dont mean to pick those words out of context but they highlight what my point is.it doesnt matter to me at all how many long range forecasts are made about irelands weather and by who,i treat them all with the same contempt as madden,ring,etc etc.i know i am being simplistic,but if anyone tries to tell me what the weather is going to be like in ireland come dec/jan/feb i wont be taking it in anyway seriously because it cant be done accuratly.i have been saying this over and over but people keep putting a different slant on what i am saying and twisting things.i have been called names, had vitriolic replies and smartass comments so thank you for your civillised post.99.9℅....propably 100 ℅, of the people on here know more about weather charts,trends,patterns etc than i do and i never claimed otherwise.most of the knowledgeable posters have been adult and incitful and i have learned a lot on here,but i am sticking to my original opinion about accuratly being able to forecast irelands weather 2/3 months ahead,cant be done by any means.

It still seems like you are not clear on how seasonal forecasting works but anyway, the weather is going to do whatever it will do regardless of who forecasts it and how.

droidman123

FWVT wrote: »

It still seems like you are not clear on how seasonal forecasting works but anyway, the weather is going to do whatever it will do regardless of who forecasts it and how.

Eureka!!!! At last someone agrees with me

FWVT

droidman123 wrote: »

Eureka!!!! At last someone agrees with me

Actually I don't agree with you. And I don't think anyone in was actually saying that forecasting weather changes it.