Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

ferretr33

what happened to the posts from earlier on today showing the first dressings they were so nice to look at

ninebeanrows

I wonder could a major shift be on the way.

The 12z GFS backs away, but some signs from the UK and GEM that a shift could be on the way.

However, this goes against the consensus among established professional Forecasters who are suggesting a contiuation of zonal flow through until the end of the year.


Let's see what the EC shows later..

Metmaster

Weathercheck wrote: »

I wonder could a major shift be on the way.

The 12z GFS backs away, but some signs from the UK and GEM that a shift could be on the way.

However, this goes against the consensus among established professional Forecasters who are suggesting a contiuation of zonal flow through until the end of the year.


Let's see what the EC shows later..

I think so too! The sudden drop in temps today and the outlook turning cooler..you could be right.

joujoujou

ferretr33 wrote: »

what happened to the posts from earlier on today showing the first dressings they were so nice to look at

For unknown (for me) reason they're moved to Autumn thread.

DOCARCH

joujoujou wrote: »

For unknown (for me) reason they're moved to Autumn thread.

Because it is Autumn.....

joujoujou

DOCARCH wrote: »

Because it is Autumn.....

With all due respect, sir, I see no reason.

Most (if not all) posts remaining here mention current (or sometimes near future) weather situation and were posted in Autumn as well.

Open to correction though.

ninebeanrows

Huge move on the EC at 120hrs... let's see what happens hereafter.

An epic shift could be just a week away :O

ninebeanrows

Look at those height rises heading up through Labrador/Baffin Sea and into the Arctic.

snowstorm445

Haven't been here for a while! :P

My two cents on this: I've learnt from experience of past winters to approach any materialising cold spells with caution. Just because some factors line up with some amazing snow event from years ago doesn't mean it will repeat itself, especially if it was an incredibly rare one (like 2010). People who are seeing today's wintry mix/some chilly looking charts in deep FI and are expecting thundersnow streamers to roll in over Ireland within a fortnight will be disappointed (although we'd all love if it came true! )

We need to be realistic. Let's see what the weather brings and let's not make wild exaggerations of what might be on the way (but don't write it off either). I used to think the more cautious members on here were just being Scrooge-like, but they were almost always right. If you get caught up in the euphoria before anything is even set in stone you'll be all the more upset IF it doesn't materialise. Be patient.

I'd still love if there was something on the way. Fingers crossed that there is, but don't get hyped just yet. :P

JanuarySnowstor

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

A cool down from record breaking temperatures is hardly newsworthy. Id be confident that if Ger Fleming says there is no major cold on way then there's no major cold on way.

After seeing the ecm have you still got the same confidence?

ECM is a thing of beauty and if it proves to be right Ger has called it wrong!

All to play for

ninebeanrows

Away from the real news,

This looks like an epic shift weatherwise


But maybe tonight. This discussion should be forgotten.

snowstorm445

Weathercheck wrote: »

Away from the real news,

This looks like an epic shift weatherwise


But maybe tonight. This discussion should be forgotten.

Agreed. Horrific news from Paris. Just horrific.

All we can do is pray for that poor city. Vive la France.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Away from the real news,

This looks like an epic shift weatherwise


But maybe tonight. This discussion should be forgotten.

Fergie on NW just posted :

GloSea5 and MOGREPS both now agree on several days colder weather post-20th onwards. Smaller probability (10%) more protracted/blocked.

Metmaster

This may be the situation in less than a fortnights time!

maquiladora

Downgrade on the 12Z GFS. Showing a brief window for some light wintry showers next Saturday before the high collapses. But it's only one model and still around 170 hours away so plenty of time for further change but nothing is certain yet at this point.

Clonmel1000

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

After seeing the ecm have you still got the same confidence?

ECM is a thing of beauty and if it proves to be right Ger has called it wrong!

All to play for

In a word yes. Do I think the weather is going to get colder? Yes. Its been unseasonable recently. Do I think its going to be snowing countrywide on the 21st? No.

ninebeanrows

EC may be a toppler, although I don't see a return to westerlies...

But this is a lovely chart and a real major change than of late

Metmaster

Weathercheck wrote: »

EC may be a toppler, although I don't see a return to westerlies...

But this is a lovely chart and a real major change than of late

There is definitely a big change happening as of late and the charts are telling snow for the 21st all over the country. Of course it can go the complete opposite way but i think there might be more of a chance of snow falling than not falling.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

EC may be a toppler, although I don't see a return to westerlies...

But this is a lovely chart and a real major change than of late

Westerly 3 days later :P Of course yesterday it was a Greenland High. FI will be FI. Fun model watching though.

sryanbruen

maquiladora wrote: »

Westerly 3 days later :P Of course yesterday it was a Greenland High. FI will be FI. Fun model watching though.

I am not believing that. Look in the Autumn thread when I post my report of why!

gerrybhoy

sryanbruen wrote: »

I am not believing that. Look in the Autumn thread when I post my report of why!

And why would you believe it? its FI:rolleyes:

sryanbruen

gerrybhoy wrote: »

And why would you believe it? its FI:rolleyes:

Because I believed the one of the 21st as soon as it was shown :cool:

Metmaster

sryanbruen wrote: »

Because I believed the one of the 21st as soon as it was shown :cool:

The one for the 21st is the most solid one ive seen so far. It would all make sense. The mild first half and "maybe"soon to be cold second half is mirroring 2010. I sense snow!!

sryanbruen

Metmaster wrote: »

The one for the 21st is the most solid one ive seen so far. It would all make sense. The mild first half and "maybe"soon to be cold second half is mirroring 2010. I sense snow!!

Did ya see my post in the Autumn forum?

Metmaster

sryanbruen wrote: »

Did ya see my post in the Autumn forum?

I didnt no. Can u give a link?

sryanbruen

Metmaster wrote: »

I didnt no. Can u give a link?

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=97733731&postcount=509

Metmaster

sryanbruen wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=97733731&postcount=509

Cant fault it and it looks like you could be right the way things are going. I would go as far to say if the arctic air does come in the chance of widespread snow is inevitable.

M.T. Cranium

I have reviewed the long-range forecast for the winter and the current situation. At this point, I have decided to stick with the original call for the three winter months ahead. Following is just a copy of the post made in mid-October for those months.

December and some part of January (at least the first half) will probably be mild more often than cold, but with spells of anticyclonic weather bringing quiet perhaps foggy conditions, and somewhat colder temperatures interspersed with milder southwesterly flows and possibly one or two stormy periods. If these storms develop, they would likely be followed by several days of northerly flow, local hill snow and gradually moderating temperatures. During this part of the winter, there may be considerable snowfall in higher parts of the northwest, if not in other parts of the country. There will be mild enough temperatures at times to melt lying snow so it won't likely be prolonged.

Later in January and for some part of February, more significant blocking appears likely, and I think there may be a spell of significant and perhaps extreme cold developing over nearby western Europe and possibly Britain as well. The delivery of cold to Ireland is always an issue, but at this early stage I would expect occasional freezing temperatures and some snow for parts of the east if not more widely distributed. This colder pattern is not likely to reverse itself quickly and it may just fade out through March.

---

Meanwhile, this is a brief version of my forecast for North America for the same period. DEC and JAN are expected to bring mostly milder than average weather to almost all regions with the largest anomalies in the northern half of the U.S. and south central Canada. Arctic outbreaks are likely to be less intense and less frequent than in recent winters until February. Some record warmth appears likely at times in both DEC and JAN. Snowfall would therefore be predicted to be well below normal except in the upper Great Lakes and possibly Quebec into the northern Maritime provinces. However, in FEB the circulation is likely to reset rather rapidly to a cold or very cold regime in eastern regions, variable in central and continued mild in the west. This may permit one or two significant snowstorms on the east coast but the change will be to a dry cold further inland. This colder regime may persist well into March before weakening.

NMB

winter.jpg

icesnowfrost

NMB wrote: »

winter.jpg

Don't speak to soon