Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

JCX BXC

jack o shea wrote: »

Forget about snow lads, we dont get a winter here, its the same crap all year round give or take a few degrees,we live in a horrible part of the world for weather.

I disagree. I quite like the winter storms we get.

jack o shea

winter storms summer storms whats the difference? its up in the mid teens in december the same as july.

Gonzo

jack o shea wrote: »

Forget about snow lads, we dont get a winter here, its the same crap all year round give or take a few degrees,we live in a horrible part of the world for weather.

this is kinda true most years. For 'daytime' temps we mostly see between 12 and 17C. Temps in July gone by and November just gone were not much different really. Only every now and then we hit the jackpot and score daytime temps below 4C and above 21C nationwide.

maquiladora

Flooding could be an issue again in the days ahead.

Weatherproof79

Is my eye sight going dodgy or is that snow I see across the NW on the 12th?

maquiladora

Weatherproof79 wrote: »

Is my eye sight going dodgy or is that snow I see across the NW on the 12th?

Ah, maybe a bit on mountain tops for a while. The main story there is the very heavy rainfall it's showing over the west. Long way off though, not certain at all yet.

Weatherproof79

Looks much different in that pic ha

q85dw7osi4lebg

That's a lot of precipitation.

Gonzo

and I thought that next weekend was meant to be mainly dry, crisp, frosty with a few wintry showers. Has this already been replaced by yet another windy, mild weekend of rain?

km79

this is getting very very very depressing

weatherfiend

km79 wrote: »

this is getting very very very depressing

VERY!!

Weatherproof79

Rainfall totals quite worrying for the areas that don't need them. Next 72hours totals Donegal,Mayo,Galway,Kerry 80-99mm accumulation for certain parts

cyclops999

River Shannon very high in Athlone some areas reporting houses flooded, roads closed. Emergency Flood Plan acitvitated by Local Authority.

josip

Found this thread today and read the opening few posts.
Had to smile when I read this

maquiladora

cyclops999 wrote: »

River Shannon very high in Athlone some areas reporting houses flooded, roads closed. Emergency Flood Plan acitvitated by Local Authority.

Not sure what the levels are for flooding on the Shannon but you can see it's recent rise here, and there's more rain on the way in the days ahead.

http://waterlevel.ie/0000026027/0001/

cyclops999

maquiladora wrote: »

Not sure what the levels are for flooding on the Shannon but you can see it's recent rise here, and there's more rain on the way in the days ahead.

http://waterlevel.ie/0000026027/0001/

Latest word Shannon will peak today 200mm of a rise and will continue to rise for the next 5 days. This now looks like flooding could be worse than 2009 and believe me that was bad.

maquiladora

Next named storm will possibly be on Wednesday.

JCX BXC

maquiladora wrote: »

Next named storm will possibly be on Wednesday.

150km/h Gusts off the coast of mayo don't look too friendly.
Today was quite modest, for a time earlier winds got a bit gusty but they are moderating now.

maquiladora

12Z GFS has "incessant" rain again for Friday evening to Sunday evening, very heavy at times.

Still several days away so not certain at all yet but worth keeping an eye on for obvious reasons.

maquiladora

Carnacalla wrote: »

150km/h Gusts off the coast of mayo don't look too friendly.
Today was quite modest, for a time earlier winds got a bit gusty but they are moderating now.

That's 130 km/h off the coast there. Could end up being a bit weaker though, we'll see over the next day.

Weatherproof79

So possibly two Red Rain warnings in one week. Lovely

squarecircles

Storm Eva? Wednesday.
This weekend is looking extremely wet also on the latest charts.

Irish Steve

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z GFS has "incessant" rain again for Friday evening to Sunday evening, very heavy at times.

Still several days away so not certain at all yet but worth keeping an eye on for obvious reasons.

And looking at that map, would I be right in thinking that there's more risk on the East Coast this time round. We're South Meath, and have some specific local issues due to bad infrastructure, if the coming weekend is likely to be bad in this area, there are some specific actions that may be needed before the event to reduce the risk of a repeat of last November's problems, and I'd rather start now than leave it to closer to the event.

maquiladora

12Z ECM has the low next weekend further west, so the main area of very heavy rain mostly misses Ireland whereas on the GFS it passes right over us.

km79

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z ECM has the low next weekend further west, so the main area of very heavy rain mostly misses Ireland whereas on the GFS it passes right over us.

Go West
there are no people there
go west

derekon

Oh dear, with just 7 days now gone in December and 5 named storms already, are we about to be "locked" into a depressing pattern of wind and rain like the previous few winters here in Ireland?

I sincerely hope not - and I take a wee bit of hope from MT's view that later into January 2016 and February 2016, Ireland might get a break and get a decent cold blast. Snow would be a bonus too, given the copious amounts of rain we get in this country....................:)

D

HighLine

Whilst I share your hopes for colder/snowy weather, no one knows what will happen in January and February. Considering how off his forecast has been for November... it just further demonstrates how long range forecasting is impossible and akin to crystal ball type stuff.

WheatenBriar

Speaking of snow, might it be worth pointing out at this stage,that the jetstream has been pretty damn smack bang on top of Ireland for a prolonged period now and sooner or later it will move,the smart money probably being on it moving south in time for MT's thoughts on a Cold January

M.T. Cranium

Whatevs about November, I just had the lowest forecast error of a hundred people in some contest over on NW, so that's not too shabby (forecast CET = actual CET = 9.5, average forecast 7.7) ... and without looking back I'm pretty sure my LRF called for mild and at times stormy weather in December, so I do think that the pattern is on track so far. Also I continue to think it will turn colder at some point in mid to late January, there can always be one or two colder days in this pattern but a more substantial change due to blocking and as mentioned by the poster before me, a shift in the jet stream, will probably require 4-6 weeks at a minimum. This may actually get worse before it gets better (in terms of severe storm potential). And it is tied into that mid-ocean SST pattern.

Found this interesting, both oceans are releasing moisture to land in equal rates it would seem:

(from U.S. National Weather Service)

...RECORD DECEMBER 24-HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL SET AT PORTLAND OR...

A RECORD DECEMBER 24-HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3.22 INCHES WAS SET AT
PORTLAND OR DEC 6-7..ENDING AT 2 PM. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF
2.59 INCHES SET ON DEC 12-13, 1977.

(and their period of record goes back quite a way before 1977, if they have blended downtown and airport records it would go back to about 1880).

3.22 inches of rain is about 81 mm.

The only real question now about this winter, I feel, is this: will it just go on like this to the spring, or will it shift like some El Nino winters in the past to blocking and colder weather. My estimate is that the blocking has about a 2:1 chance of beating the other option. In our forum winter forecast contest, the 16 entrants seem to agree. About one third go for continued mild weather and means of 6-7 C in all three months. The other two thirds foresee some colder weather and more favour February for that than January although perhaps it's more of case of parts of each month. They foresee an average of 12-15 cm of snow in total in Leinster, so that tells me that they are looking for one or two snowfall events, and an average minimum for the winter of -8 to -9 C. Nobody is calling for anything too extreme, the lowest February mean in the contest is 2.4 C.

I said I would report on that contest consensus and so there it is, a few days late because I had a few other things going on.

These are just my opinions and presented as such, I leave earth-shaking announcements of certain doom to those who can print them up and circulate them door to door.

Weatherproof79

NI latest update sounds interesting
Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:
Brighter Thursday, becoming less windy, but colder with showers, hill snow. Some wintry showers Friday, drier, light winds later. Cold, dry start Saturday, then wet and windy, perhaps some snow

Updated at: 0615 on Tue 08 Dec 2015