Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

maquiladora

12Z GFS dumps about 60mm of rain on the west and southwest on Saturday.

Lumi

Mod note
Posts regarding the hurricane-force winds in Iceland have been moved to a new thread here - the discussion was spread over 3 threads and was difficult to follow. If I've missed any just PM me and I'll move them.
Thanks.

km79

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z GFS dumps about 60mm of rain on the west and southwest on Saturday.

need that to go away!

squarecircles

Predicted rain for Saturday.

screamer

Well I just dropped 50 quid on a mighty fine umbrella as I am absolutely fed up of being soaked and getting sick. It's windproof to 55 miles an hour, so it'll be well tested. I see no end to this weather at all, I'd say we'll have a few cold nights in Jan/ Feb but that's about it, this winter is like a storm train and I don't see it changing track anytime soon.....

littlema

I ditched the brollie due to the feckin winds years ago & got a good waterproof jacket & sou'wester hat......can't turn inside out or become Mary Poppins now. )

maquiladora

18Z GFS traps that low pressure to our southwest so that it moves very slowly. The result is a lot of rain dumped over the southern half of the island...a lot.

After the weekend, on Monday evening :

screamer

We're gonna need a bigger boat...........

km79

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS traps that low pressure to our southwest so that it moves very slowly. The result is a lot of rain dumped over the southern half of the island...a lot.

After the weekend, on Monday evening :

this might not happen right ?

elastico

Anybody have a table of spring tides? What dates are highest tides of the month?

Gonzo

This is very worrying, we are not too bad in the east, its been very wet but the west of Ireland and western UK has seen way too much rain already and to think the same amount is gonna drop again over the next week is more than worrying, another red warning might be needed as the water levels are dangerously high already.

Oscar Bravo

Saturday and Sunday around 6pm , give or take a few minutes

maquiladora

km79 wrote: »

this might not happen right ?

Correct. But's a possibility.

km79

maquiladora wrote: »

Correct. But's a possibility.

i want to wake up tomorrow and see a maguiladora post showing no precipitation for a week
OK ?

Gonzo

km79 wrote: »

i want to wake up tomorrow and see a maguiladora post showing no precipitation for a week
OK ?

unfortunately thats not gonna happen, December looks like another write off, an absolute washout. Lets hope mother nature balances things out and we can look forward to a much dryer and colder January & February with some snow snowers peppering along the eastern half of Ireland singing along with a bitter siberian easterly wind. Im so fed up of this atlantic muck and the trouble its causing, even tho in my part of the world we are getting off lightly compared to other parts of this world.

maquiladora

If this is correct, then we'd likely see another red rain warning for this weekend. Subtract about 10-15 from these totals and that's how much rain the GFS is showing for Saturday & Sunday.



For comparison to last weekend, here is what the same model showed for the 3 day period during Desmond.



Could be a serious situation for the southwest in particular.

leahyl

Dear God Maq, that is scary!! :eek: What is the likelihood of this coming off - there is nothing very specific mentioned on met.ie yet -

"Cloudy over south Munster and south Leinster with outbreaks of rain Saturday morning and cold and frosty with icy patches elsewhere. The band of rain in the south may move northwards turning to sleet/snow for a time. Some icy patches Saturday night.
Sunday: Mild and windy with scattered outbreaks of rain. rain.
Next week: Atlantic regime. Wet and windy at times with some spells of heavy rain. Gales at times also with very rough seas."

It's a bit early yet I suppose....

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

Dear God Maq, that is scary!! :eek: What is the likelihood of this coming off - there is nothing very specific mentioned on met.ie yet -

"Cloudy over south Munster and south Leinster with outbreaks of rain Saturday morning and cold and frosty with icy patches elsewhere. The band of rain in the south may move northwards turning to sleet/snow for a time. Some icy patches Saturday night.
Sunday: Mild and windy with scattered outbreaks of rain. rain.
Next week: Atlantic regime. Wet and windy at times with some spells of heavy rain. Gales at times also with very rough seas."

It's a bit early yet I suppose....

That forecast was written before the 0Z ECM came out, and the ECM has moved towards the GFS idea of heavy rain pushing into the southwest.



So it is looking increasingly likely, but not certain yet. But worth keeping an eye on for sure.

Weatherproof79

leahyl wrote: »

Dear God Maq, that is scary!! :eek: What is the likelihood of this coming off - there is nothing very specific mentioned on met.ie yet -

" The band of rain in the south may move northwards turning to sleet/snow for a time. Some icy patches Saturday night.


It's a bit early yet I suppose....

The met office shows a max of 3c and snow on Saturday for Western parts of NI but mts fc says highs of 10-13c. Too early yet as you say

maquiladora

Weatherproof79 wrote: »

The met office shows a max of 3c and snow on Saturday for Western parts of NI but mts fc says highs of 10-13c. Too early yet as you say

Both of those are true.

WheatenBriar

Latest BBC news 24 graphics has Saturdays rain turning to snow over wide parts of inland north Munster and south Leinster away from coasts :eek:
Wide areas of North Cork, all of Tipp,much of Kilkenny up in to Carlow were covered in white

Gaoth Laidir

Evelyn this morning said that the rain on Saturday would be preceded by sleet and snow for a while

km79

I need this to go away south

JCX BXC

Knock TAF giving snow showers from 4am-9am tommorow morning.

leahyl

Gonzo wrote: »

unfortunately thats not gonna happen, December looks like another write off, an absolute washout. Lets hope mother nature balances things out and we can look forward to a much dryer and colder January & February with some snow snowers peppering along the eastern half of Ireland singing along with a bitter siberian easterly wind. Im so fed up of this atlantic muck and the trouble its causing, even tho in my part of the world we are getting off lightly compared to other parts of this world.

Eh, not just the East coast!!

sryanbruen

This December is actually scaring me :eek:

Lumi

Mod note

We have two Event Threads open at the moment
Stormy Wednesday. Gusts to 110km likely in NW with up to 35mm of rain also.

and
Weekend 12th, 13th December - Flood risk

Can we keep this thread for general winter chat and post your reports on today's weather and concerns over the flood risk at the weekend in the relevant threads.
Some posts have been moved to the appropriate event threads

Thanks guys

Oneiric 3

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Latest BBC news 24 graphics has Saturdays rain turning to snow over wide parts of inland north Munster and south Leinster away from coasts :eek:
Wide areas of North Cork, all of Tipp,much of Kilkenny up in to Carlow were covered in white

JJJJNR

JCX BXC

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Its inaccurate. It's giving snow at my house and it just doesn't snow here in west Clare