Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

icesnowfrost

If the snow gods said we could have the next 5 winters just like 2010 BUT, the following 10 winters after that would be mild muck with zero chance of any cold. Wat would u want

YFlyer

Raining heavy with gusts in Limerick city.

pauldry

UK having its warmest December for over 100 years

The CET is 9.26c , 5c is the CET for December normally.

They showed daffodils in London

Then 15c for ourselves tomorrow

By Sunday its 9c.

The snows coming

HAHA

JCX BXC

The grass is still growing, if it was the summer I would have it cut at this stage but the ground is so wet!

pauldry

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Ah come on Paul in very recent times we've had cold winters and good summer's. It's Ireland where the Atlantic rules the roost more often than not which is why we chase the summer and winter extremes. Writing off future summer's when 13/14 were decent is ludicrous really, similarly writing of all current winters due to current zonality. Its not a dig at you but the doom and gloom posts are getting a bit tiresome to read. I can tell you one thing if we were guaranteed winter freezes and great summer's every year then this weather forum wouldn't be any where near as active!

P.S Not to mention El Nino

I completely take your point on board Jerry. What I was getting at was the way the weather seems to be breaking records for all different types of reasons more and more. I have many weather books and long rang predictive books and the theorys they present seem to be happening.

Maybe its just me or the media but warmest night on record, wettest day on record. I mean it isnt going away.

I guess lets just enjoy the journey.

Global warming isnt what im on about its the complete change of weather patterns.

Anyways thats all I will say.

Bring on the coldest Christmas day on record.

Less likely now ...stay positive

KungPao

I adore proper cold weather, I really do. In December 2010 I was in heaven. I remember going on 'a trek' on foot (as the snow was so bad) to get fuel for the fire. And going to buy a Christmas tree earlier in the month was almost surreal. Shivering in a frosty car park with piles of snow scooped to the sides...picking out the perfect fir for the festive season.

What a difference to now

I went to the shop earlier in just a casual hoody, sleeves rolled up like it was a July evening. I must wonder if that's it? Winter 2015/16 is a non-event?

Ah well, saving a fortune on the heating bill, it's not all bad I suppose.

Padster90s

KungPao wrote: »

I adore proper cold weather, I really do. In December 2010 I was in heaven. I remember going on 'a trek' on foot (as the snow was so bad) to get fuel for the fire. And going to buy a Christmas tree earlier in the month was almost surreal. Shivering in a frosty car park with piles of snow scooped to the sides...picking out the perfect fir for the festive season.

What a difference to now

I went to the shop earlier in just a casual hoody, sleeves rolled up like it was a July evening. I must wonder if that's it? Winter 2015/16 is a non-event?

Ah well, saving a fortune on the heating bill, it's not all bad I suppose.

Well there's still the majority of Winter ahead of us than behind us so lets not write it off yet! I know what you mean though, sleeves up, files around and the plants still growing...its not exactly festive! Temps wise we're not far off some places in the South Island of New Zealand, our nights these few days are warmer than theirs and its the equivalent of being June 17th down there!

coillsaille

Anyone have any idea of rainfall potential for this Saturaday? Have some outdoor work to do. John Eagleton on radio at 8am said it would be the first dry Saturday in some time, but now I see MT expects 20-30mm that day.

Gonzo

stood outside this morning in a tshirt, not even cold in anyway, feels like April or even early May.

Kingswood Rover

Put up the Chrimbo tree in my mum's last Sat in the company of a big fat juicy wasp, is this the 1st time an Irish wasp has flew around a Chrimbo tree in Ireland?

Who is M.T. Cranium and why do so many people thank his/her posts

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

He's the weather Santa. If you're nice this year, he may bring you snow.

Deleted User wrote: »

Who is M.T. Cranium and why do so many people thank his/her posts

MidMan25

Kingswood Rover wrote: »

Put up the Chrimbo tree in my mum's last Sat in the company of a big fat juicy wasp, is this the 1st time an Irish wasp has flew around a Chrimbo tree in Ireland?

Yep 1st time ever

gerrybhoy

Kingswood Rover wrote: »

Put up the Chrimbo tree in my mum's last Sat in the company of a big fat juicy wasp, is this the 1st time an Irish wasp has flew around a Chrimbo tree in Ireland?

Nah the basturts are always flying around ours in the shed

weatherfiend

Kingswood Rover wrote: »

Put up the Chrimbo tree in my mum's last Sat in the company of a big fat juicy wasp, is this the 1st time an Irish wasp has flew around a Chrimbo tree in Ireland?

Same in ours!! As we took the net off the tree, a wasp flew out straight at me!! Relatively sluggish but not dead due to the cold, that's for sure

Santa, I've been good - where's my snow??

Carson Lively Dart

Carson Lively Dart wrote: »

He's the weather Santa. If you're nice this year, he may bring you snow.

Seriously though. Every year he tops the most thanked. I don't get it

jamo2oo9

Deleted User wrote: »

Seriously though. Every year he tops the most thanked. I don't get it

Because his predictions are extremely accurate... Could be a reason why, everyone knows what to expect each year and it might not appease some of the snowfans here but it's nice to get a spot-on weather forecasts of whether it'll be cold, mild, wet, sunny, warm, baltic or snow.

JCX BXC

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Seriously though. Every year he tops the most thanked. I don't get it

He posts daily updates on the weather, and extra updates in the case of extreme weather possible. His unique outlook offers a rare alternative to Met Eireann and often gives us guidence at a futher outlook than Met Eireann. He does all of this for us at no cost, why should we not be grateful?

ninebeanrows

I'll bank this for Christmas day. Cool crisp and the prospect of a cheeky snow-event later?

Gaoth Laidir

Carnacalla wrote: »

He posts daily updates on the weather, and extra updates in the case of extreme weather possible. His unique outlook offers a rare alternative to Met Eireann and often gives us guidence at a futher outlook than Met Eireann. He does all of this for us at no cost, why should we not be grateful?

And all this from 8 timezones away in Vancouver, Canada.

josip

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

And all this from 8 timezones away in Vancouver, Canada.

Maybe we're just getting the same weather they had in Vancouver a few days earlier?

JCX BXC

josip wrote: »

Maybe we're just getting the same weather they had in Vancouver a few days earlier?

Vancouver, western Canada?
Really?

Elmer Blooker

It just gets weirder and weirder!! Gerry Murphy has just said that Malin Head has recorded a Dec record of 16c ......... but wait for it ... this temp was recorded at 4am!!

Gaoth Laidir

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

It just gets weirder and weirder!! Gerry Murphy has just said that Malin Head has recorded a Dec record of 16c ......... but wait for it ... this temp was recorded at 4am!!

At this time of the year there is no real difference between night and day when we're in this type of airmass. Solar heating is at a minimum and contributes very little when it's so overcast. Airmass properties are more important than solar heating.

MidMan25

Carnacalla wrote: »

Vancouver, western Canada?
Really?

Sure don't you know we get the weather from the US a few days later :rolleyes:

Except for sun, snow, severe thunderstorms, cold.....

Oneiric 3

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I think we're seeing a strong El Niño influence across the northern hemisphere this season. The Ridge-Trough-Ridge setup across North America is a common theme during El Niño, and as a consequence we have a similar Ridge-Trough-Ridge across the Atlantic and into Europe. With our position to the east of the trough it's been - and will continue to be - mild and unsettled for the forseeable.

Can't say that I am convinced by the strong El Nino influence on this side of the world or on the current pattern. Of course, there may be some indirect, well diluted effects of El Ninos over NW Europe but these have yet to be narrowed down to any meaningful extent, and I suspect they won't be for a good while yet.

A quick look at the MSLP anomaly (base: 1981-2010) patterns over the NH in the last two December's that occurred during 'super' El Nino conditions, for example, show that two very different patterns were evident over the greater N.American/N Atlantic/Euro region.





I think there is just too many variables at play when it comes to narrowing down weather patterns over the NE Atlantic to be able be able to align specific patterns to El Nino events as the current pattern is every bit as likely to occur regardless where the NINO index stands at any one time.

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Can't say that I am convinced by the strong El Nino influence on this side of the world or on the current pattern. Of course, there may be some indirect, well diluted effects of El Ninos over NW Europe but these have yet to be narrowed down to any meaningful extent, and I suspect they won't be for a good while yet.

A quick look at the MSLP anomaly (base: 1981-2010) patterns over the NH in the last two December's that occurred during 'super' El Nino conditions, for example, show that two very different patterns were evident over the greater N.American/N Atlantic/Euro region.





I think there is just too many variables at play when it comes to narrowing down weather patterns over the NE Atlantic to be able be able to align specific patterns to El Nino events as the current pattern is every bit as likely to occur regardless where the NINO index stands at any one time.

I don't think these two events can be reliably compared using MSLP as they occurred during different phases of the PDO and AMO. The '82 event is probably more similar to this event in that the PDO and AMO are both positive in both cases. In '97 the AMO was negative.

In any case, one of the most reliable and agreed El Niño tendencies on upper patterns is ridging in the NW and NE of the NA continent, which would suggest a natural Rossby repetition across the Atlantic. The cold anomaly in the Atlantic may be helping sustain the troughing in the mid Atlantic, or maybe it's not, I don't know. What I do know, however, is that the system is bloody stubborn and needs a good kick on the arse to snap out of it.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005RG000172/full

josip

Carnacalla wrote: »

Vancouver, western Canada?
Really?

Why not? It's almost at a similar latitude so the Coriolis effect will send the Vancouver weather here at some stage.
Isn't their weather very similar to ours?

JCX BXC

josip wrote: »

Why not? It's almost at a similar latitude so the Coriolis effect will send the Vancouver weather here at some stage.
Isn't their weather very similar to ours?

Similar climate maybe, not weather fronts. Our weather fronts come from the southwest, not west.

Stealthfins

So much for that Atlantic blob bringing cold weather.

On another note my red geraniums are turning from red to pink.

Photosynthesis is really getting confused with this mild weather and lack of sunlight.

Some shrubs are also very striking looking especially some hebes and similar waxy leaved shrubs.