Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

Hooter23

I dont know how they can say that the high temperatures are due to global warming when we had record cold they were saying you cant tell if its climate change from a few days weather.

Well if the winds are coming from that far south with sahara dust in it its obviously going to be warm :pac:

pauldry

Looking at charts apart from xmas eve n day the 16c max for december may be threatened yet again...day or night on one of the next 11 days

pauldry

Personally heres my own rough predictions for rest of 2015

Dec 20-22 rain or showers 9 to 12c

Dec 23-24 windy wet cooler 7- 10c

Dec 25 cold windy showers some wintry 5-8c

Dec 26-31 mainly mild and some drizzle 12 - 15 possibly 16c

JCX BXC

Monster of a Squally shower just hit west clare, Hail and everything

Xenji

Torrential rain and thunder currently in Castlebar, rumbles are quite long.

snaps

The weather patterns here in Southern Poland for this year are extremely identical to 2013 (To the day too).

Hot long sunny summer(Highest temperature was 40.3c on the 8th August), Cold November with snow and cold.
Warm Sunny December.
Mild Christmas with a NW Storm (2013 we had a big storm on the 24th which brought a tree down on one of our barns).

And then Cold between Christmas and new year (Which both ECM and GFS is trying to build).

If so then a mild first half of January is in store and then a cold Spell between 2nd half of Jan until March.

Also this will be the first Christmas for a long long time we haven't had snow here (Even 2013 the storm on 24th bought snow, but not mega cold).


The local Ski resorts are closing for Christmas as currently its far too warm here even to make snow at night with blowers. My local resort say they will loose hundreds of thousands of zloty over Christmas because there is no snow. They made snow last week while it was cold, but its all melting too fast and the next few days are going to be recorded breaking. Its mad, we have herbs re grown in the garden and even the grass is re growing after the cold in November.

Yesterdays max here was 14.3c (Average for this time of year is -1)
Yesterdays Min here was 5.5c (Average for this time of year is -4)

Today and tomorrow could be a few degrees warmer still.

Graces7

Horrendous deluges and high wind out there. Feels colder too. The road from Moll's Gap to Killarney early yesterday was perilously near to flooding and then the sun came out for a while.. My driveway is thick mud and skiddy.

maquiladora

The Wednesday evening low is stronger on the 0Z GFS.



Still quite uncertain even though it's only 96 hours. The GEFS ensemble members range from nothing :



to a major storm :

sryanbruen

Due to how warm it is, this is my first time since 2011 that I forgot Christmas is nearly here but it definitely does not feel like it!

Graces7

South Kerry mountains 400 above sea level. Feels much colder and the last hard shower had hail in it. Watching the northerly mountains closely.

Hooter23

maquiladora wrote: »

The Wednesday evening low is stronger on the 0Z GFS.



Still quite uncertain even though it's only 96 hours. The GEFS ensemble members range from nothing :



to a major storm :

On BBC weather yesterday they mentioned there was alot of uncertainty but there could be quite severe winds around christmas eve time.

He said the area of low pressure could be much deeper than what was currently shown.

maquiladora

12Z GFS has 130 km/h gusts on the west coast Wednesday.

aboyro

storm eve on christmas eve. what a coincidence

Meteorite58

On the present run it looks to be deepening as it glances off our shores but very quick moving and doesent hang around long, could pack a fair old punch though.

JCX BXC

Wind warning issued by Met Eireann:

"STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Ireland
Southerly winds of mean speeds 50 to 65km/h will gust 90 to 100km/h, strongest winds in Atlantic coastal counties and exposed hilly areas.

Issued:Sunday 20 December 2015 15:00
Valid:Monday 21 December 2015 04:00 to Monday 21 December 2015 11:00"

maquiladora

12Z ARPEGE has 140 km/h gusts touching the west coast on Wednesday.



+200 km/h gusts off the coast of Scotland later.

squarecircles

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z ARPEGE has 140 km/h gusts touching the west coast on Wednesday.



+200 km/h gusts off the coast of Scotland later.

Are we entering into a reliable timeframe now maq.
This would be a red alert.

Meteorite58

That looks very nasty at this stage, I would think a Red for the W and NW coastal counties at least, probably Orange for the other coastal counties , and much of the country very windy , very tight gradient and I wonder could it get deeper..... Very quick moving system though.

maquiladora

squarecircles wrote: »

Are we entering into a reliable timeframe now maq.
This would be a red alert.

Still two days before this exits the coast of Canada as a wave. Still plenty of time for the models to change regarding track and intensity. It only takes small changes for it to be a hit or a miss.

maquiladora

Wednesday's low. 18Z GFS similarly stormy to the 12Z run.

RobertKK

Some of the days this month have been up to 30C warmer than 5 years ago.

MidMan25

RobertKK wrote: »

Some of the days this month have been up to 30C warmer than 5 years ago.

You're comparing maximums to minimums

JCX BXC

Cavan town one day recorded a Max of -9.9c.

Therefore 25c

ninebeanrows

:O

Graces7

Another wild sodden morning up here in the Kerry Mountains, 400 ft asl. Never an end to it. My driveway is sheer mud and the garden under water. Deeply thankful they had the sense to make a concrete walkway all around the house. Deeply thankful also I do not need to go out again until well after Christmas. Will continue to weather watch up here in my eyrie!

Rock Lesnar

Lads hope ye don't mind me asking, but over the last few weeks iv"e noticed, well i hope it has, that the rain seems to get heavier as it crosses the country, take the rain now, on ME"s rainfall radar chart, it went from Blue to Yellow and now Pink as it got to the east coast, especially the north east, it was the same last weekend to when the east seemed to get the heaviest of the rain, i was always under the impression that it loses its intensity as it crosses land as there is less moisture, could somebody tell me, is it because we live in such a small country, that its not big enough for that to happen or am i just completely wrong on my original thought.

Log9

Rain seems to be easing slightly in Cork City but the wind is still pretty strong with the odd powerful gust. It was windy enough early this morning to slam doors inside my house! Possibly a window open a crack somewhere.

maquiladora

Still looking windy, but not severe, Wednesday evening on the GFS. Brief period of 100-110 km/h gusts crossing the country. Bit stronger on the west coast.

Gaoth Laidir

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Lads hope ye don't mind me asking, but over the last few weeks iv"e noticed, well i hope it has, that the rain seems to get heavier as it crosses the country, take the rain now, on ME"s rainfall radar chart, it went from Blue to Yellow and now Pink as it got to the east coast, especially the north east, it was the same last weekend to when the east seemed to get the heaviest of the rain, i was always under the impression that it loses its intensity as it crosses land as there is less moisture, could somebody tell me, is it because we live in such a small country, that its not big enough for that to happen or am i just completely wrong on my original thought.

In this case it has been because of the upper dynamics and not to do with the temperature of the land. As many systems have only been in their early stages of development as they hit Ireland they were strengthening all the time.

Neddyusa

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

In this case it has been because of the upper dynamics and not to do with the temperature of the land. As many systems have only been in their early stages of development as they hit Ireland they were strengthening all the time.

Add to that; the fact that the new Met Eireann Radar greatly underestimates rainfall rates the further west and north from Dublin airport you are. So it may have looked to have been intensifying on the radar simply as it approached the Dublin airport radar.