Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

Iancar29

Neddyusa wrote: »

Add to that; the fact that the new Met Eireann Radar greatly underestimates rainfall rates the further west and north from Dublin airport you are. So it may have looked to have been intensifying on the radar simply as it approached the Dublin airport radar.

Correct, this is because the strength/accuracy of the beam is based on an inverse square law so the further the beam has to travel the weaker it is on return.

Storm 10

I see in the British press today its been given the name Eva with 70 mph wind gusts, there was no mention of wind on this mornings forecast by ME, why do we leave things so late even on BBC Country File last night the UK Met Office mentioned this event.

maquiladora

Storm 10 wrote: »

I see in the British press today its been given the name Eva with 70 mph wind gusts, there was no mention of wind on this mornings forecast by ME, why do we leave things so late even on BBC Country File last night the UK Met Office mentioned this event.

It hasn't been officially named, Met Office don't even have a yellow warning for it yet. It's still uncertain what the strongest winds will be and where. The ECM looks like it might be weaker than on the GFS too.

Storm 10

maquiladora wrote: »

It hasn't been officially named, Met Office don't even have a yellow warning for it yet. It's still uncertain what the strongest winds will be and where. The ECM looks like it might be weaker than on the GFS too.

Thanks maquiladora ,guess its one to watch

maquiladora

Storm 10 wrote: »

Thanks maquiladora ,guess its one to watch

Yep worth keeping an eye on. Good chance it'll end up being an orange warning on the west coast. Not likely to be severe but still uncertain yet.

Hooter23

It said there on bbc weather it dosn't look like it will be a named storm at the moment and that it will probably track to the north of the UK....

sryanbruen

Where in the world has December been colder than normal so far?

New Zealand has had record breaking temperatures
Europe has had record breaking warmth
New York has had record breaking temperatures

RobertKK

Carnacalla wrote: »

Cavan town one day recorded a Max of -9.9c.

Therefore 25c

Kilkenny got down to below -16C, and the warmest this period is just over 14C, which would be around 30C between those spread of temperatures.

outsourced_ire

Yellow rainfall warning issued for Cork and Kerry for tonight -

snaps

outsourced_ire wrote: »

Yellow rainfall warning issued for Cork and Kerry for tonight -

Has it actually stopped raining in Ireland this month. Here in eastern Europe all we have is dry sunny settled mild weather. We had a record breaking summer too of heat. Something like 68 days of 30+ and no rain for 55 consecutive days.

Clonmel1000

snaps wrote: »

Has it actually stopped raining in Ireland this month. Here in eastern Europe all we have is dry sunny settled mild weather. We had a record breaking summer too of heat. Something like 68 days of 30+ and no rain for 55 consecutive days.

That would be a no.

yellowlabrador

The river Sally has broken its banks again upstream from Dunmanway. There's already a lot of water out there. Luckily, the longer it rains, the more able the rivers seem to be in coping.

leahyl

Lovely, more rain tonight! It's actually lovely here now, blue sky and sunny.

Gaoth Laidir

Neddyusa wrote: »

Add to that; the fact that the new Met Eireann Radar greatly underestimates rainfall rates the further west and north from Dublin airport you are. So it may have looked to have been intensifying on the radar simply as it approached the Dublin airport radar.

Really? Do you have evidence of that? When you include the Castor Bay radar too then the same trend is evident in some cases, rain intensifying as it heads eastwards. This would imply that there is nothing wrong with the Dublin radar.

The main reasons for radar underestimating is:

• Fall-off due to the curvature of the Earth, but this only becomes an issue at around 100 km or more.
• Attenuation of the outward pulse (and hence reflected pulse) due to high terrain or heavy precipitation between the radar and the area of interest.
• The size of the precipitation particles. The reflection intensity is proportional to the 6th power of the drop diameter, so for lighter rain the reflected pulse will be greatly reduced.

Villain

The biggest issue with the radar is the public colour scheme they are now using, the one they us internally is far clearer, too many shades of blue on the public one.

ronnie3585

Villain wrote: »

The biggest issue with the radar is the public colour scheme they are now using, the one they us internally is far clearer, too many shades of blue on the public one.

Indeed, the introduction of the new colour scheme has been terrible. It's very difficult to differentiate between colours and it significantly under-reads the amount of rainfall here on the West coast all of the time. The old scheme was far better at recognising the heavy mist/drizzle of which we get a lot of. With the new scheme, it usually doesn't pick it up at all. I've stopped using it completely and switched to Netweather's radar which is far more accurate. It's a real pity as they're was nothing wrong with Met.ie's initial colour scheme which worked very well.

If it ain't broke...

maquiladora

No big change on the 12Z GFS regarding Wednesday. Gusts up to 120 km/h in the west, probably an Orange warning for those parts if the same winds are shown on Met Eireann's models. Brief passage of strong winds sweeping the country quickly in the evening. Heavy rain at times.

Doesn't look like the low will be taking a track that brings the strongest winds over Ireland.

Eugene Norman

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Really? Do you have evidence of that? When you include the Castor Bay radar too then the same trend is evident in some cases, rain intensifying as it heads eastwards. This would imply that there is nothing wrong with the Dublin radar.

The main reasons for radar underestimating is:

• Fall-off due to the curvature of the Earth, but this only becomes an issue at around 100 km or more.
• Attenuation of the outward pulse (and hence reflected pulse) due to high terrain or heavy precipitation between the radar and the area of interest.
• The size of the precipitation particles. The reflection intensity is proportional to the 6th power of the drop diameter, so for lighter rain the reflected pulse will be greatly reduced.

Whatever seems to be the reason, if the radar shows Atlantic systems causing more rain in Dublin that's wrong. Dublin gets less rain than the west and most of our weather comes from the west.

Oneiric 3

The radar coverage here in the west & NW - as well a good part of the SE - is abysmal, whether you include Caster Bay coverage or not. Coverage from Shannon is next to useless. All too often, heavy downpours over my region in S. Connacht don't show up until the most intense returns reach the Roscommon border, when they suddenly and magically appear. I suspect this was the case this morning also as there was pretty much an equal amount of rain recorded west to east from that front this morning over the central belt of the country (between 1mm and 6mm, lowest at Dublin Apt, highest at Mullingar)

Baggy Trousers

Any snow on the mountains at the moment? Any chance of snow above 500m between now and Jan 4th?

Padster90s

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

Any snow on the mountains at the moment? Any chance of snow above 500m between now and Jan 4th?

Hushed talk on ME forecasts of wintery showers in the W & NW early on Dec 25th. Seem it on a TV forecast today.

Comhrá

GFS for 29/12/2015 shows a mean-looking storm skirting Ireland in a Northerly direction. If it gets about 350 kms. East of it's currently predicted track, we'll be in for a pounding.

maquiladora

18Z GFS, gusts in Orange warning territory for the west coast Wednesday evening. The low becomes quite strong then as it moves further north off the coast of Scotland.




ECM gusts similar to GFS. Up to around 120 km/h on the west coast.

JCX BXC

Winds picking up a fair bit here in west Clare.

The storms had stopped for a while, now looks like we are back into the quick successions of storms.

aisling86

Didn't expect the gusts we currently have in macroom until Wednesday. My net weather app is giving an orange warning until midnight then red until Thursday.

Gaoth Laidir

Eugene Norman wrote: »

Whatever seems to be the reason, if the radar shows Atlantic systems causing more rain in Dublin that's wrong. Dublin gets less rain than the west and most of our weather comes from the west.

But is it wrong? I have not noticed it and there only seems to be anecdotal evidence of it here. It is possible that it can be raining heavier in the east sometimes, so if the radar shows that then it may well be correct.

There is a difference between radar coverage and detection. Regarding the latter I see no evidence of a problem, especially to the NW of Dublin where there is little high terrain to interfere.

Regarding Shannon's coverage of Galway, maybe there are some blindspots, I don't know.

Meteorite58

Met Eireann not getting too bothered about the Low at this stage. Now if it were to take a more Southerly route that would be a different story but these usually tend to take a more Northerly route .

legomaniac

Thankfully that storm for Wednesday that a few people on other sites were hyping will give nothing more than a strong gale on western coasts. Nothing unusual there. Looks like we are in for a benign fortnight. Thankfully.

Villain

Winds bit stronger here than expected tonight

maquiladora

aisling86 wrote: »

Didn't expect the gusts we currently have in macroom until Wednesday. My net weather app is giving an orange warning until midnight then red until Thursday.

Windy tonight alright on the south coast.

Wind Warning for Ireland

Southerly winds will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65 km/hr and gusts of 90 to 109 km/hr later this evening and tonight, strongest along southern coastal counties.