Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

sryanbruen

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Office issued a red warning for rainfall in northwest England.

Haven't seen a red warning twice in the same month in the same country

maquiladora

Gusts up to 110 kmh on the west coast Sunday night/Monday morning.

12Z GFS has now further downgraded Tuesdays low to 120 kmh gusts brushing the west and northwest coasts. Wednesday's low would be a bit stronger, with gusts up to around 130 kmh on the west/northwest coast.

UKMO has Tuesdays low further west than the GFS and doesn't seem to develop the second low at all, so further downgrades definitely possible.

Meteorite58

Cleared just enough here late afternoon for the sun to break through just before it set giving a welcome dry walk.

Pic. Fenit 16.10

Meteorite58

Plenty of weather passing over the country on Monday,will be counting the fronts as they pass

ronnie3585

^^^

That's taking the p*ss!

cyclops999

The level of the Shannon in Athlone area has risen by 8cm since 23 Dec and may rise by a further 10cm between now and Wed. 30th Dec.

pad199207

Gerrys Charts on the six one for next week made for some very grim watching if you have been affected by flooding and are looking for dry weather!

Hooter23

Still mentioning possible stormy conditions on rte weather on Tuesday not certain though

JanuarySnowstor

Hooter23 wrote: »

Still mentioning possible stormy conditions on rte weather on Tuesday not certain though

it amazes me how folk take note of the tv broadcasts as if they know something we don't.
We have access to the bulk of what met eireann can see and the storms have been moved West off shore. Gales and rain is the menu

maquiladora

pad199207 wrote: »

Gerrys Charts on the six one for next week made for some very grim watching if you have been affected by flooding and are looking for dry weather!

Yes. Looks like rain rather than wind will be the story next week.

Hooter23

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

it amazes me how folk take note of the tv broadcasts as if they know something we don't.
We have access to the bulk of what met eireann can see and the storms have been moved West off shore. Gales and rain is the menu

Ya I suppose I was just still hoping for a proper storm :pac:

WheatenBriar

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

it amazes me how folk take note of the tv broadcasts as if they know something we don't.
We have access to the bulk of what met eireann can see and the storms have been moved West off shore. Gales and rain is the menu

Actually, Glasnevin have access to an awful lot more technical information than us,not to mention a wealth of regular contact with all of their sister agencies across Europe and their combined decades of experience/opinions
To say otherwise is naive

maquiladora

Relentless rain on the ECM from Tuesday night through to Wednesday night, in addition to Monday's rain.

We do dodge the bullet with that big low staying out in the Atlantic. No support at all for a second strong low of Wednesday which the GFS continues to show. GFS has been very poor lately with these lows.

Gaoth Laidir

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Actually, Glasnevin have access to an awful lot more technical information than us,not to mention a wealth of regular contact with all of their sister agencies across Europe and their combined decades of experience/opinions
To say otherwise is naive

Absolutely. It amazes me to that some people think we don't need a met office as we have access to Meteociel. They have no idea of the work that goes on in a forecasting office.

JanuarySnowstor

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Absolutely. It amazes me to that some people think we don't need a met office as we have access to Meteociel. They have no idea of the work that goes on in a forecasting office.

I don't agree with this.
Imo most of this work goes into preparing charts, tv broadcasts, radio etc.
Time and time again we have seen tv broadcasts which don't incorporate the latest charts! Why because they are prepared hours before they go live.
With the likes of GP and co on NW I don't even watch TV broadcast anymore.
Like newspapers they are out of date as soon as they go to print such is the instant world we live in

Schadenfreudia

Usually escape the worst of the rain here but we've had 40mm the past 36 hours.

RobertKK

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I don't agree with this.
Imo most of this work goes into preparing charts, tv broadcasts, radio etc.
Time and time again we have seen tv broadcasts which don't incorporate the latest charts! Why because they are prepared hours before they go live.
With the likes of GP and co on NW I don't even watch TV broadcast anymore.
Like newspapers they are out of date as soon as they go to print such is the instant world we live in

The people on here are near all amateur weather enthusiasts.

Met Eireann have a responsibility to the public, they can't have a fantasy island section to their weather reports, all they can do is use the best information available to them and they are mostly correct with their forecasts.
Imagine if Met Eireann changed their weather reports every few hours to the latest weather model and then give multiple forecasts for the same day as the ECM is saying one thing and the GFS is saying something else, ok they don't use all the weather models.
The people on here do a great job, but we all know some of it is just in fantasy land and the next weather model might show something different.
Met Eireann can't be giving snowmageddon one day, a record breaking storm the next day and then saying snowmageddon was cancelled and the wind storm went to Iceland instead, because we were looking too far ahead.

JanuarySnowstor

I get your point but one question??
If there was a snowstorm due tomorrow what would you choose to watch the rte weather or the latest gfs run?

RobertKK

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I get your point but one question??
If there was a snowstorm due tomorrow what would you choose to watch the rte weather or the latest gfs run?

1. Met Eireann
2. UK met
3. Look at the various weather models and see what people on here are saying
4. My own weather station to see the temperatures and wind direction if there was snow forecast.

Mycroft H

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I get your point but one question??
If there was a snowstorm due tomorrow what would you choose to watch the rte weather or the latest gfs run?

If on the balance of probability that there was a snowstorm tomorrow; Met Eireann would have already forecast it

maquiladora

-6 uppers covering most of the country on NYE on the GFS. Wintry showers would be streaming into the West.

Gaoth Laidir

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I get your point but one question??
If there was a snowstorm due tomorrow what would you choose to watch the rte weather or the latest gfs run?

That's the attitude I'm talking about. It's so ridiculous that it doesn't warrant discussion.

squarecircles

It will become very wet and very windy during the afternoon as heavy rain pushes in from the Atlantic in gale force southeasterly winds.
This is from another powerful Atlantic storm (may be named Frank) out to the west of Ireland which may produce some damaging gusts over Ireland and further flooding so please keep in touch with the latest forecasts and warnings from Met Eireann. Be aware also that there will be exceptionally high Atlantic waves in coastal areas.

Met.ie

JCX BXC

Many applause to Met Eireann for the advance notice of the possible storm. Will prepare people in advancd in vulnerable areas (And in all areas).

Seems Met Eireann are expecting quite an event.

JCX BXC

Next paragraph is also interesting.

"Wednesday: The storm center will have moved on to Iceland but the trailing front over Ireland will produce further spells of heavy rain with further flooding inevitable unfortunately. Rainfall amounts between Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 40 to 60mm range for many areas and more over the mountains."

Meteorite58

Just for discussion : looking at the present models and the last few runs I would think that there is good agreement that there will be a fairly significant wind event beginning with very strong winds developing in the West from about mid afternoon Tues (orange at least possible red in the W/NW )to mid morning on Weds, most notibly giving strong winds countrywide during the early hours of Weds morning ( probably at least orange for most of the country ).

Too early to put a guesstimate on it ?

Elmer Blooker

New York, warmest for 33 years.

Temperature readings in Central Park reached 66 degrees at 12:31 a.m. Friday, breaking the previous record of 64 degrees set in 1982.

http://abc7ny.com/weather/new-york-city-has-its-warmest-christmas-ever/1134498/

Moscow, warmest for 33 years.

On Monday, Moscow temperatures broke the 33-year-old warmth record.

https://www.rt.com/news/326679-moscow-winter-warm-temperatures/
........ 82-3 of course being a very strong El Nino winter like this one.
I think we can write off this winter as a dead loss!
Cheerio.

Oscar Bravo

in all fairness that is one of the best updates from Met Eireann ive seen, very detailed and wrote in a way in which people who rarely read a forecast will get

26 December 2015 23:13

Today
Cold tonight with clear spells. Poor driving conditions in places with fog patches and also some icy patches. Lowest air temperatures between +2 and -1 degrees.
However towards morning cloud will increase in the southwest and west with temperatures beginning to rise here.




Tomorrow

Tomorrow, Sunday will start cold and frosty over much of the country with some sunny spells. It will be mostly dry in the morning but a band of light rain or drizzle will move northward during the afternoon.
It will become windy during the day with strong and gusty south to southeast winds developing.
Top temperatures of 6 to 12 degrees, coldest in the north.

Outlook

Sunday night: Mild and windy and most areas dry but there will be some rain in parts of the west and southwest. Temperatures of 10 or 11 degrees in fresh to strong southeasterly winds.

Monday: A mild, windy and cloudy day with outbreaks of rain, heavy at times. Temperatures of 11 to 13 degrees in strong to gale force southeasterly winds. The winds will veer westerly in the evening and the rain will clear and it will turn cooler. Cool and breezy Monday night and dry apart from some patchy rain in southwestern and southern coastal fringes where temperatures will stay around 9 degrees. But generally lowest temperatures 3 to 5 degrees with a slight ground frost and a few icy patches.

Tuesday: Sunny spells at first on Tuesday and mostly dry for the morning.
It will become very wet and very windy during the afternoon as heavy rain pushes in from the Atlantic in gale force southeasterly winds.
This is from another powerful Atlantic storm (may be named Frank) out to the west of Ireland which may produce some damaging gusts over Ireland and further flooding so please keep in touch with the latest forecasts and warnings from Met Eireann. Be aware also that there will be exceptionally high Atlantic waves in coastal areas.

Wednesday: The storm center will have moved on to Iceland but the trailing front over Ireland will produce further spells of heavy rain with further flooding inevitable unfortunately. Rainfall amounts between Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 40 to 60mm range for many areas and more over the mountains.

maquiladora

It will be a very strong low, but the track is pretty much nailed down now, and we are lucky indeed that it's taking a track off the coast because if those tightened isobars were crossing the country the damage would be extensive.



There will be strong winds brushing the west coast. I'd estimate between 120-140 kmh. Wouldn't rule out the possibility of a red warning for coastal Galway/Mayo.

Meteorite58

Yea the jet should take care of it's track all right...