Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

Meteorite58

Good simple chart from the BBC showing the length of the trailing cold front that is expected to produce a lot of the heavy rain.

Graces7

Carnacalla wrote: »

Many applause to Met Eireann for the advance notice of the possible storm. Will prepare people in advancd in vulnerable areas (And in all areas).

Seems Met Eireann are expecting quite an event.

Just read the met eireann forecasts ( early bird here) and yes, Heartsink time. Even mentioning may be named Frank. Chilly and clear and still up here this morning. May even get to see the mountains. South Kerry 400 asl

maquiladora

ARPGEGE is showing 4 day rain totals of 100mm widely over the south.

Graces7

Looking for the "best" day to be out this week and there seems little choice.. may head out early tomorrow although many places still closed of course,.

Supercell

Second air frost of the winter here this morning, got down to -0.8C , lovely to see outside.

sryanbruen

Cork Airport hit 308.7mm. Genie mac! What did it reach in December 1999? Just interested in case it bet the record?

Trogdor

Seems the level of the Shannon surpassed that of a few weeks ago last night in Athlone rising to 5.701m, the highest since 2009 (when it was 15cm higher). With a lot more rain on the way this week further increases seem likely.

maquiladora

And this is just up until 6am Wednesday, with more rain to come...Flooding looks inevitable.

squarecircles

As teresa Mannion said 'THIS IS ALL ABOUT THE RAIN!'
No mention of anything significant now wind wise from met eireann,just a normal winter gale.

squarecircles

RTE News reporting on the impending storm

Met Éireann is urging people to pay close attention to weather warnings over the next few days as a storm is forecast to arrive in Ireland on Tuesday.

Most of the country was affected by sharp frost and icy patches with poor viability on the roads this morning.

Tomorrow conditions will become wet and windy. By Tuesday Met Éireann says people can expect "another powerful Atlantic storm (may be named Frank) out to the west of Ireland which may produce some damaging gusts and further flooding."

Captain Snow

squarecircles wrote: »

As teresa Mannion said 'THIS IS ALL ABOUT THE RAIN!'
No mention of anything significant now wind wise from met eireann,just a normal winter gale.

Would'nt bate a fox out of a Hen House Weather.

joujoujou

Very quiet, still.

Quiet enough to do this:

Meteorite58

Tues/ Weds Storm centre now predicted at 946 hPa , that is a slightly deeper centre then the previous run.




GFS gusts an hour later then above chart.




Later in the evening

Trogdor

Trogdor wrote: »

Seems the level of the Shannon surpassed that of a few weeks ago last night in Athlone rising to 5.701m, the highest since 2009 (when it was 15cm higher). With a lot more rain on the way this week further increases seem likely.

Where did you get this chart from?

cyclops999

Deleted User wrote: »

Where did you get this chart from?

http://waterlevel.ie/

Ordnance datum graph

squarecircles

Stormy spell begins later on Tuesday
We then enter into a very stormy and wet run of weather as we near the close of 2015. Southerly winds are expected rapidly increase from the west during the second part of Tuesday as a very deep low pressure system moves up west of Ireland and toward Iceland. Gusts of 60-80mph are likely by evening up through Irish Channel coast areas and through into west Scotland. Even some gusts in excess of 90mph in exposed parts of the far northwest of Scotland are possible. The 60-80mph gusts then spread east overnight and into Wednesday to other parts of northern Britain.


Netweather.

ninebeanrows

Some potential for cold on the UK 144 chart

maquiladora

ARPEGE showing some pretty strong gust totals in the east/southeast, up to 120 kmh. Extreme west coast 130-140 kmh.

Windy but not the type of severe event we were looking at a few days ago.

Very, very wet though. Showing the majority of the country with 100mm (or more) of rain by New Years Day!

uck51js9zml2yt

So it's going to be wet and windy this week for a change....do you guys never bring good news


...gets my coat....hat.....wellies...umbrella and boat

sryanbruen

Anybody got any ideas on the weather next week?

Up to Saturday:

Monday - wet and windy
Tuesday - becoming very windy and wet
Wednesday - exceptionally wet and windy
Thursday - showery
Friday - showery and cooler
Saturday - wet and windy

maquiladora

12Z ECM now showing that second smaller low on Wednesday. Worth keeping an eye on. Could bring proper stormy conditions inland on that track with that intensity.

JCX BXC

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork and Kerry
Southeast winds of 45-60 km/h with gusts of 80-95 km/h later Sunday night and for a time on Monday. Highest winds in coastal regions.

Issued:Sunday 27 December 2015 16:00
Valid:Monday 28 December 2015 00:01 to Monday 28 December 2015 13:00

aisling86

Should we expect orange or red warnings for Tuesday for cork/Kerry?

maquiladora

aisling86 wrote: »

Should we expect orange or red warnings for Tuesday for cork/Kerry?

Probably Orange on Tuesday for Kerry. Cork might be borderline Orange/Yellow. Depends on the exact track. Not sure if they will go with Red as it will really only be the exposed coastal areas that might see +130 kmh gusts briefly on Tuesday. Maybe Galway/Mayo/Donegal.

ninebeanrows

Certainly some interesting signs in the extended forecast range

ninebeanrows

Nice cold pool out to our east...

maquiladora

All depends on what the uppers would be on the day. If it was on the right side of marginal..."Do not make unnecessary snowmen!"

ninebeanrows

maquiladora

There's some little spots of 300mm over Cork...

Meteorite58

Thats a scary amount of water falling in such a short space of time.

By the way maquiladora how do you rate the WRF model ?