Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

Lumi

Mod Note
As per DOCARCH's note above lets get this thread back to discussing the Weather Please
If you want to send personal messages to another contributor then do so via PM and not on this thread

Thanks

Meteorite58

Fri and Sat look like great days for outdoors frosty hikes in the countryside before the wind and rain on Sunday. Looking much milder next week with no shortage of wind and rain by the looks of it.

Musicman2000

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Fri and Sat look like great days for outdoors frosty hikes in the countryside before the wind and rain on Sunday. Looking much milder next week with no shortage of wind and rain by the looks of it.

I wouldn't be to sure about much milder next week the way the euros are trending. Take those charts from the GFS 18z run with a pinch of salt

Baggy Trousers

blackbird99 wrote: »

photographic evidence of this morning

Blackbird, how are the Galtees looking today (Wednesday) ?

Funky looking clouds in South Dublin a few minutes ago

icesnowfrost

Lovely crisp frosty morning in North drogheda. Everywhere is still white white. no rush as yet on a thaw

Redbishop

Dónal wrote: »

Funky looking clouds in South Dublin a few minutes ago

Wouldn't like to be at the butt end of that bugger.
I m in north Longford this morning and its raining constantly and very cold.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

Clear, crisp, cold this morning. A lovely morning for a country walk.

Lumi

Musa Teeny Bugle wrote: »

Clear, crisp, cold this morning. A lovely morning for a country walk.

Where Musa Teeny Bugle?

maquiladora

GFS again showing the risk of flooding returning from Sunday. ECM maintains high pressure and so has a more dry outlook.

WheatenBriar

maquiladora wrote: »

GFS again showing the risk of flooding returning from Sunday. ECM maintains high pressure and so has a more dry outlook.

Well I can tell you the BBC news 24 forecast just now spoke of high pressure sunday and very very cold nights
No sign of the GFS rain on the maps,if so,how poorly has it been performing lately and its software updated recently?

JanuarySnowstor

The trend is very much cold at the moment.
Severe frost would be right
As for floods.....no thanks gfs

maquiladora

BBC forecast shows the rain returning a few days later than the GFS. The models are not in agreement with that yet.

Always the risk of fronts stalling or moving very slowly, running into high pressure to our east, which increases the flooding risk. Might still be cold enough in the UK for this to fall as snow in places too.

ferretr33

So much for our long awaited cold snap, just our standard Irish January by the looks of those GFS are any thing to go by for the forcible days ahead, looks like M.T has been on the money with his predictions so fair since we got back up on the Tread for winter 2015/2016.

HighLine

ferretr33 wrote: »

looks like M.T has been on the money with his predictions so fair since we got back up on the Tread for winter 2015/2016.

Completely disagree. No mention of the record warm (not mild) temperatures for the first half of November. Then a barrage of storm after storm from end of November to December and record amounts of rain throughout the country leading to unprecedented flooding.

Each to their own but just reading the FI thread is a perfect example of how changeable the charts can be on a medium term scale not to mention the silliness of attempting long range. Sure if you mention enough brief possibilities, you will be right on some occasions as is a stopped clock.

Elmer Blooker

Met Eireann:

Next week: Becoming milder and unsettled with weather fronts moving in from the Atlantic.

... doesn't look like it according to ECM, used of course by M.E. - a bit contradictory??
I suppose when in doubt just say "rain spreading from west"

Gonzo

just managed to get the first proper frost of winter, it melted by 10am with a shower of rain. Looks like more scattered outbreaks of rain for today followed by a cold night. This is about as exciting as this cold spell is gonna get.

maquiladora

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Met Eireann:
... doesn't look like it according to ECM, used of course by M.E. - a bit contradictory??
I suppose when in doubt just say "rain spreading from west"

Because that forecast was based on yesterday's 12Z ECM.

pad199207

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Met Eireann:
... doesn't look like it according to ECM, used of course by M.E. - a bit contradictory??
I suppose when in doubt just say "rain spreading from west"

Very fluid situation so it's probably safe to go with the default Atlantic Fronts

Lucreto

First day I had to wear gloves but I could have done without them.

Very thin layer of frost on the car and it was nearly fully melted by 9AM.

Naas seems to me milder than others areas around it.

Gonzo

looks like we could be back to square one next week, atlantic firmly back in charge and plenty of mild and possibly wet and windy conditions.

howlinwolf

Gonzo wrote: »

looks like we could be back to square one next week, atlantic firmly back in charge and plenty of mild and possibly wet and windy conditions.

yeah it does seem the atlantic is winning the little war going into next week. It will be interesting to see if met.ie outlook summary stays the same as the models continue to flipflop around.

Clonmel1000

I said it elsewhere and nearly got run out of the place but this "spell" is typical January weather. No more no less....

Speak Now

Gonzo wrote: »

looks like we could be back to square one next week, atlantic firmly back in charge and plenty of mild and possibly wet and windy conditions.

It's definitely not square one even it does happen. Northern hemisphere profile is nothing like pre Christmas now.

Speak Now

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

I said it elsewhere and nearly got run out of the place but this "spell" is typical January weather. No more no less....

Weather enthusiasts will talk about the weather typical or not though. That's what we do

Nabber

Not so sure about the Atlantic winning.
If we take up to +96hr as relatively reliable. Then most model concensus is for 1035/1040 go directly over Ireland. Which would be nice compared tho Dec weather.

After that whom knows? I don't see much chance for cold. But HP ove us, I'll take that in winter and summer

Trogdor

Gonzo wrote: »

looks like we could be back to square one next week, atlantic firmly back in charge and plenty of mild and possibly wet and windy conditions.

Not if the 0z ECM is right which has cold dry weather persisting through next week. The models are all over the place at the minute but ECM is generally the most accurate. I would say there's not much point looking past about 72-96 hours out at the moment, and certainly not into next week.

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

I said it elsewhere and nearly got run out of the place but this "spell" is typical January weather. No more no less....

Upper air temperatures would suggest we are quite a bit below typical (bold red line)

Gonzo

hopefully we will get a few more dry days after today, right now its lashing rain outside and very cold.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Photographic evidence of this cold spell

Taken just now in Clontarf.

JCX BXC

Loving all the pretty hail showers temporarily coating things in white. Temp here currently a mild 5.5c in west Clare but just at the end of a nice hail shower!