Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

Alexis Sanchez

Missymoohaa wrote: »

Oh okay, thanks a million, didn't realise it went by year.

I think you're confusing tropical storms with European windstorm. They're two very different types of storms:

The storms we get are called European windstorms and they form over cold seas, so therefore are more common during winter.

Alex is tropical storm. They only can form over sea temperatures of 26.5*C, which can only be found in the topics and subtropics. A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its sustained winds over a 1 minute period reaches 75mph.

Alex is now part of the 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane season, which normally starts in June and last until November, but because El Nino is wreaking havoc across the world, we now have a very rare January hurricane in the North Atlantic.

The last time this happened was in 1938.

maquiladora

The way the models are trending...starting to have a bad feeling about the rest of the month. Maybe we can get something more interesting in February.

weatherfiend

maquiladora wrote: »

The way the models are trending...starting to have a bad feeling about the rest of the month. Maybe we can get something more interesting in February.

Noooooooo Maq - stop!!!!!

rickdangerouss

maquiladora wrote: »

The way the models are trending...starting to have a bad feeling about the rest of the month. Maybe we can get something more interesting in February.

Yep, February 2017.

Graces7

Posts here gave me some hope of alleviation of the bitter cold, but the met ie forecasts will give shivers. Rose here to clear skies and frost stars and everyone so hungry... Pity rough sleepers and hope they are all under cover. Too early to see the mountains but they will be as yesterday as nothing white has fallen near the house..

Rock Lesnar

maquiladora wrote: »

The way the models are trending...starting to have a bad feeling about the rest of the month. Maybe we can get something more interesting in February.

I await the day you post positive news or charts

Redbishop

Just arrived at a clients place in North Longford.
Interesting and beautiful morning here.

northgirl

Redbishop wrote: »

Just arrived at a clients place in North Longford.
Interesting and beautiful morning here.

Beautiful scenery!

Rikand

Redbishop wrote: »

Just arrived at a clients place in North Longford.
Interesting and beautiful morning here.

poor horsies

Redbishop

Rikand wrote: »

poor horsies

They have a shelter.

Graces7

Went to check the car and there was the rainbow which became full and double as snow fell atop the mountains. Then vanished as I got soaked. Shivers out there

ferretr33

I have some beautiful pictures of the snow in meath but I cant post them on the site, very cold hear today and lovely and white time for a nice brisk walk

joujoujou

Ox Mountains today:



And Keshcorran (famous Caves of Kesh over there):

weatherfiend

joujoujou wrote: »

Ox Mountains today:



And Keshcorran (famous Caves of Kesh over there):

Fab photos - thx

ferretr33

How are the charts looking for the next week or so now with the Atlantic mild are pushing in or are they still flip flopping around at the present, if anyone could shed some light on this as I dont know where to find the charts as I am only new to reading them and to learn to under stand them.

rickdangerouss

ferretr33 wrote: »

How are the charts looking for the next week or so now with the Atlantic mild are pushing in or are they still flip flopping around at the present, if anyone could shed some light on this as I dont know where to find the charts as I am only new to reading them and to learn to under stand them.

I am thinking this might be a good place to start.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056531638

Darwin

ferretr33 wrote: »

How are the charts looking for the next week or so now with the Atlantic mild are pushing in or are they still flip flopping around at the present, if anyone could shed some light on this as I dont know where to find the charts as I am only new to reading them and to learn to under stand them.

Taken from the netweather forum, Ian Fergusson of UK met office says:

Key issues into (the nearer-term) medium range are compounded by mismatches between 00z/06z model solutions and imagery. The latter is already looking more amplified in the Atlantic versus output, favouring the slower solutions. This slower progression was always suspected and remains the main caveat set against ongoing deterministic modelling, which continues to show marked swings including run-to-run within the same suites (and even lately between UKMO-GM Operational and Parallel suites). No detailed analysis of current output is really trustworthy into the start of next week...

So basically beyond Sunday is Fantasy Island for the UK at least, I think we are more likely to feel the influence of the Atlantic.

ferretr33

Thanks a mill for that rickdangerouss I will have a good evening learning And than you Darwin for the quick reply

Nabber

In my opinion the Euro HP is preferable to the Atlantic LPs. I'm inclined to think that the Atlantic will be bounced in steeper NW path.
December was a was out, at this stage dry weather will suffice. Depending on where the HP sets up shop, we could see some continual precipitation.

Meteorite58

Messy models but looks very likely that bands of rain from the Atlantic moving across Ireland is the new pattern forming for the foreseeable future IMO . And much milder then of late after tomorrow night with some frosty nights in places depending on cloud cover.

Big change here in Kerry this evening, wet ( 5.8mm ) and overcast with the slow moving weak warm front stalling over the SW. 5.9C down from 8.3C

Near Calm

Bar 1029.6 hPa Steady

Nabber

Hard to say where FI is when Cold air meets warm moist air

But the GEM would be the best of the lot at the moment for colder weather, keep temps ay zero for most of the week after a quick Atlantic incursion



Although it finishes it FI with this beautiful block, this would bring some fabulous weather both day and night, not a drop of rain in sight

Trogdor

Nabber wrote: »

Hard to say where FI is when Cold air meets warm moist air

But the GEM would be the best of the lot at the moment for colder weather, keep temps ay zero for most of the week after a quick Atlantic incursion

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2016011512/gem-0-126.png?12

Although it finishes it FI with this beautiful block, this would bring some fabulous weather both day and night, not a drop of rain in sight
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2016011512/gem-0-240.png?12

The ARPEGE 12z is probably the best actually with cold air back in over us by Tuesday, quite unlikely I'd say but things are very uncertain at the moment.

Schadenfreudia

Trogdor wrote: »

The ARPEGE 12z is probably the best actually with cold air back in over us by Tuesday, quite unlikely I'd say but things are very uncertain at the moment.

Am I confused or what?

Redbishop

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

Am I confused or what?

Not like you schade, but me too.
Met.ie is simple.

Graces7

A still, chill morning up here South Kerry 400 asl. Staying home as they say the roads are icy...a porridge and hot soup day....;)

ferretr33

I see met.ie have started to back track a bit in the mild week next week compared to last nights forecast for next week ahead.

Clonmel1000

Graces7 wrote: »

A still, chill morning up here South Kerry 400 asl. Staying home as they say the roads are icy...a porridge and hot soup day....;)

Others are reporting almost spring like conditions in Kerry this morning?

Pangea

No word of -6 on tonights Met Eireanns forecast

Elmer Blooker

ferretr33 wrote: »

I see met.ie have started to back track a bit in the mild week next week compared to last nights forecast for next week ahead.

Yesterday they were forecasting temps as high as 11c for next week but that has changed to 5-7c.
Compare the difference in the fax charts for 12 Tues, pressure a little higher to the north but unfortunately not high enough, its only a matter of time before the Atlantic breaks through.

esposito

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

its only a matter of time before the Atlantic breaks through.

Yes, it will break through very soon but for how long will it dominate? As long as it dosen't last for weeks I'll be happy. I have a hunch that the cold air will come fighting back in February.