Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

mickger844posts

A bright morning after more heavy rain overnight. 41.7mm recorded in the last few days bringing the monthly to 186mm. Well on course to be the second wettest month on record at my station.


www.waterfordcityweather.com

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

Heavy rain from 5 to 6am. Lovely mild springlike morning and it looks decent through to the early part of next week. Temp in double digits now.

JCX BXC

Wasn't expecting such a heavy squally hail shower this morning! Its shredding the hedging a bit! Still going.

Missymoohaa

We could do with a bloody good heavy shower where we live, the N81 is absolutely filthy with muck. Can't keep the car clean.

Graces7

Beautiful majestic skies here; always so much sky...changing cloudscapes.... South Kerry mountains 400 asl. Hoping to make my long deferred escape day tomorrow.. Mizen Head and the 99 steps challenge...get some sea air in my heart... The morning looks OK ish...Sweet wild wind now.

WheatenBriar

Not so beautiful today I'd say
Looks like the brief pattern change has ended and we're back into a rut of rainmageddon unfortunately

IF and I mean IF our saviour is to be a large unguaranteed tbh strat warming, its not going to have an effect here until mid to late February
It's highly unlikely to happen at all.
Theres outrageous hopecasting and utter nonsense being said(same every year) on two and netweather is palpable as usual :rolleyes:

Lumi

It's raining again in Galway city....

Out of the 54 days so far this winter I've recorded some form of precipitation on 53 of them. December 27th remains the only totally dry day.

nacho libre

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Not so beautiful today I'd say
Looks like the brief pattern change has ended and we're back into a rut of rainmageddon unfortunately

IF and I mean IF our saviour is to be a large unguaranteed tbh strat warming, its not going to have an effect here until mid to late February
It's highly unlikely to happen at all.
Theres outrageous hopecasting and utter nonsense being said(same every year) on two and netweather is palpable as usual :rolleyes:

Any suggested warming is likely not to to be significant enough to obliterate the vortex, which means we are relying on a displacement of the vortex. unfortunately, this is likely to displace the vortex in an unfavourable position from our perspective due to the current northern hemisphere profile. Also, the uk met, according to Ian Fergusson, who have the best tools to study the strat, see no convincing sign at the moment of a ssw even occurring.

We need to reverse the spin of the earth, or pane over the Atlantic, then mt craniums forecast will include the word snow
far more frequently in his forecasts.

Elmer Blooker

" .... reverse the spin of the earth" - exactly.
Washington DC lies at the same latitude as Seville.

Look at the rainfall radar: http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
Can someone please explain why there hasn't been a drop of rain where I am?
I was going to take the dog out before the rain arrived but it has arrived?

Gonzo

14C @3am tonight last week of January. Insane when you think that we sometimes struggle to reach this temperature in the height of summer. Tomorrow could reach 15C.

Clonmel1000

Couldn't agree more Gonzo. Last nights temperatures were very exceptional almost record breaking. I'm very surprised at the lack of comment on here about what was quite an exceptional night in many ways weather wise. Yet normal January weather had a thread extending over 100 pages last week and some people completely losing the run of themselves. Its very damp and dreary all the time here the sooner the spring comes the better. My big fear is that we'll get a very cold Spring again similar to 2013. Your point about our January temperatures being similar to our summer ones is one I'm constantly making. We really are a climate without seasons in many ways.

Elmer Blooker

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Couldn't agree more Gonzo. Last nights temperatures were very exceptional almost record breaking. I'm very surprised at the lack of comment on here about what was quite an exceptional night in many ways weather wise. Yet normal January weather had a thread extending over 100 pages last week and some people completely losing the run of themselves. Its very damp and dreary all the time here the sooner the spring comes the better. My big fear is that we'll get a very cold Spring again similar to 2013. Your point about our January temperatures being similar to our summer ones is one I'm constantly making. We really are a climate without seasons in many ways.

Sadly these very high temperatures at night are no longer exceptional.

This chart is from the first post on that 100+ pages thread, it was looking like a repeat of Dec '10 and not normal January weather until, surprise surprise it all went pear shaped! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016010612/ECM1-240.GIF?06-0
I think putting a few € on a white Easter might be a good bet.

sryanbruen

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Couldn't agree more Gonzo. Last nights temperatures were very exceptional almost record breaking. I'm very surprised at the lack of comment on here about what was quite an exceptional night in many ways weather wise. Yet normal January weather had a thread extending over 100 pages last week and some people completely losing the run of themselves. Its very damp and dreary all the time here the sooner the spring comes the better. My big fear is that we'll get a very cold Spring again similar to 2013. Your point about our January temperatures being similar to our summer ones is one I'm constantly making. We really are a climate without seasons in many ways.

Well I broke my January record for highest minimum temperature with 12.6c last night.

Gonzo

just back from a walk, clothes are stuck to me with sweat, not often that happens in winter. Apart from the one week cool spell temps have been pretty much double figures here throughout the entire winter with 14-16C hit several times, I think its safe to say that is a record breaking mild winter and probably the mildest winter I have ever experienced in my lifetime.

esposito

Gonzo wrote: »

just back from a walk, clothes are stuck to me with sweat, not often that happens in winter. Apart from the one week cool spell temps have been pretty much double figures here throughout the entire winter with 14-16C hit several times, I think its safe to say that is a record breaking mild winter and probably the mildest winter I have ever experienced in my lifetime.

Fair point/observation but the winter is not over yet. There'll be a sting in the tail yet! February could well turn out to be a much colder month. Watch this space.

sryanbruen

Grange records broken so far this Winter

*Highest December minimum temperature on record: 12.5c on the 1st
*Highest January minimum temperature on record: 12.6c on the 24th
*Wettest December and month on record: 210.4mm (335% of the LTA)
*Sunniest start to January on record (1st-15th): 49 hours
*Highest number of days with 10c or more in December: 25 days
*Wettest Christmas Day on record: 21.2mm
*Second warmest Christmas day on record: 12.1c

*Most boring cold spell could also be a record!

JCX BXC

For Clonmel.

Look people have explained it to you before. WE LIKE WHITE. If we got it every winter for weeks there'd still be more written about it than warmer weather.

sryanbruen

Carnacalla wrote: »

For Clonmel.

Look people have explained it to you before. WE LIKE WHITE. If we got it every winter for weeks there'd still be more written about it than warmer weather.

We probably like "WHITE" because it is rare here. However, if it wasn't we wouldn't like it. If rain was rare here, we would like it. Since it's not rare here, we don't particularly like it.

Schadenfreudia

For those of you who don't follow the daily weather thread:

Last night's minimum here was 13.3C...and today's max was 15.5C.

I'd say the minimum and the average (14.4C) are possibly both records.

Clonmel1000

Carnacalla wrote: »

For Clonmel.

Look people have explained it to you before. WE LIKE WHITE. If we got it every winter for weeks there'd still be more written about it than warmer weather.

For Carnacalla,

I like all weather, but heaven forbid if you your anyway realistic about cold weather here your seen as some sort of heretic. I pointed out that last nights weather was interesting to those of us who are interested in weather. A lot more remarkable than a lot of 'events' recently. Back to todays weather, miserable dark and dank. Roll on the Spring.

sryanbruen

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

For Carnacalla,

I like all weather, but heaven forbid if you your anyway realistic about cold weather here your seen as some sort of heretic. I pointed out that last nights weather was interesting to those of us who are interested in weather. A lot more remarkable than a lot of 'events' recently. Back to todays weather, miserable dark and dank. Roll on the Spring.

MT and BBC don't seem to say "Roll on the Spring" as they say, it will become exceptionally cold as soon as that time starts...

JCX BXC

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

For Carnacalla,

I like all weather, but heaven forbid if you your anyway realistic about cold weather here your seen as some sort of heretic. I pointed out that last nights weather was interesting to those of us who are interested in weather. A lot more remarkable than a lot of 'events' recently. Back to todays weather, miserable dark and dank. Roll on the Spring.

Last night and today was interesting yeah, I agree. But even if its closer to the norm than last night anything white really gets everyone going.

JCX BXC

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

For those of you who don't follow the daily weather thread:

Last night's minimum here was 13.3C...and today's max was 15.5C.

I'd say the minimum and the average (14.4C) are possibly both records.

Maybe.

For the Republic, the record JAN temp is 18.5c, still weird how close we got too it! Imagine getting only 3c away from the record of 33.3c every summer, the media would be in meltdown.

sryanbruen

Carnacalla wrote: »

Maybe.

For the Republic, the record JAN temp is 18.5c, still weird how close we got too it! Imagine getting only 3c away from the record of 33.3c every summer, the media is would be in meltdown.

Oh yes.... if we ever broke the Summer record... I would be actually stunned! LOL (stunned) :pac:. Anyways this is very strange considering this thread is "WINTER weather" LOL. I am really cracking myself up today. :pac::pac::pac:

Meteorite58

Late Thurs into Fri looking very windy at present, especially in the NW Fri evening

Reckless Abandonment

15.2 degrees. At 8.30pm in January. Crazy.

WheatenBriar

Aye a repeat of the December rut looks increasingly likely and these things go on for a few weeks at a time as ye know, we don't need models to tellus that

Todays week ahead BBC forecast NH maps are very telling,winds streaming out of Canada and the States feeding a front creation/storm creation/jet stream line from Ireland diagonally down practically to the gulf
Its horrendous
Maybe a few brief non discript weak northwesterly attempts at some wet hill snow in between

There are some decent offers on cheap holidays to the sun at the moment, I'd say go for it and forget about snow here,it ain't happening until its too late,even more non descript and a nuisance delay to the summer.

Rebelbrowser

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Aye a repeat of the December rut looks increasingly likely and these things go on for a few weeks at a time as ye know, we don't need models to tellus that

Todays week ahead BBC forecast NH maps are very telling,winds streaming out of Canada and the States feeding a front creation/storm creation/jet stream line from Ireland diagonally down practically to the gulf
Its horrendous
Maybe a few brief non discript weak northwesterly attempts at some wet hill snow in between

There are some decent offers on cheap holidays to the sun at the moment, I'd say go for it and forget about snow here,it ain't happening until its too late,even more non descript and a nuisance delay to the summer.

Or better still go the snow! I was up an Austrian Alp with my eldest kid in temps of -11 with a good 18 inches of snow having fallen in the previous 48 hours this time last week. Snow bunny heaven....

WheatenBriar

Aye I know but you'd probably get two weeks in the sun for one ski holiday,whereas a trip up onto Kippure or lug during one of the weak northwesterlies will get you snow bunny heaven too for a few one euro litres of diesel

United road

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Aye I know but you'd probably get two weeks in the sun for one ski holiday,whereas a trip up onto Kippure or lug during one of the weak northwesterlies will get you snow bunny heaven too for a few one euro litres of diesel

So are we done?
Nothing on the horizon!
I had read with interest MTs long range forecast months back offering snow possibilities and some of his more recent posts a couple of weeks back suggest snow chances around 26th jan, (obviously you give a weeks grace either side of that date) but you suggest we are done altogether now!
Who is right or on track to be right?