Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

nagdefy

United road wrote: »

So are we done?
Nothing on the horizon!
I had read with interest MTs long range forecast months back offering snow possibilities and some of his more recent posts a couple of weeks back suggest snow chances around 26th jan, (obviously you give a weeks grace either side of that date) but you suggest we are done altogether now!
Who is right or on track to be right?

With all due respect to MT, who does Trojan work with forecasts here, or any long range forecaster, 10 days is about the absolute max in forecasting. Be it mild weather, snow, heat etc.

esposito

United road wrote: »

So are we done?
Nothing on the horizon!
I had read with interest MTs long range forecast months back offering snow possibilities and some of his more recent posts a couple of weeks back suggest snow chances around 26th jan, (obviously you give a weeks grace either side of that date) but you suggest we are done altogether now!
Who is right or on track to be right?

We are not done. Think there's a bit too much negativity on here. We haven't hit February yet and as we all know, our location means the weather is so changeable and its hard to forecast beyond a week really.

JCX BXC

esposito wrote: »

Think there's a bit too much negativity on here.

It's way better than last year anyway. Last year you couldn't post the possibility of snow without personal attacks, 100's of posts consisting of "NON-EVENT" and "THE WINTERS OVER"

United road

esposito wrote: »

We are not done. Think there's a bit too much negativity on here. We haven't hit February yet and as we all know, our location means the weather is so changeable and its hard to forecast beyond a week really.

Agreed, just asking as even the FI thread is very quiet of late.
Not sure about other post above!!
I was asking a question on whats next, not having a go at MT so no idea why the sudden need to defend him!

Elmer Blooker

esposito wrote: »

We are not done. Think there's a bit too much negativity on here.

The negativity is understandable in my opinion, the harsh reality is that this set up can continue for weeks on end.
How many winters have I seen get eaten up by a big Azores? - far too many!

Meteorite58

5 days away and could certainly change but at present looking like a very powerful wind event for the W and N/W.



Very strong jet...

nagdefy

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The negativity is understandable in my opinion, the harsh reality is that this set up can continue for weeks on end.
How many winters have I seen get eaten up by a big Azores? - far too many!

While i mention 10 days being around the max of prediction i have to agree with Elmer and Wheaten Briar that for even the most optimistic cold/snow lover among us this pattern looks ominous and all too familiar.

I wonder if some of the forecast storms veered a little further north could they shake up the artic/polar air masses a little?

nacho libre

nagdefy wrote: »

While i mention 10 days being around the max of prediction i have to agree with Elmer and Wheaten Briar that for even the most optimistic cold/snow lover among us this pattern looks ominous and all too familiar.

I wonder if some of the forecast storms veered a little further north could they shake up the artic/polar air masses a little?

Storm frank's unusual path actually led to a warming of the arctic, but all we saw was a brief colder interlude, so the answer is no. The next two weeks certainly will be Atlantic driven. However bear in mind strong el ninos events sometimes lead to a colder and dryer finale to winter. so while things look grim at present, it is possible wheaten briar maybe wrong.

kingshankly

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Couldn't agree more Gonzo. Last nights temperatures were very exceptional almost record breaking. I'm very surprised at the lack of comment on here about what was quite an exceptional night in many ways weather wise. Yet normal January weather had a thread extending over 100 pages last week and some people completely losing the run of themselves. Its very damp and dreary all the time here the sooner the spring comes the better. My big fear is that we'll get a very cold Spring again similar to 2013. Your point about our January temperatures being similar to our summer ones is one I'm constantly making. We really are a climate without seasons in many ways.

Couldn't agree more exceptional temperatures unbelievable for January and just a handful of posts relating to it,yet last week we had a frost and this place was delirious

prunudo

kingshankly wrote: »

Couldn't agree more exceptional temperatures unbelievable for January and just a handful of posts relating to it,yet last week we had a frost and this place was delirious

Don't know if it's just the weather forum but I've noticed some of the other forums I follow have been quieter than normal since the site went down last week too.

jvan

jvan wrote: »

Don't know if it's just the weather forum but I've noticed some of the other forums I follow have been quieter than normal since the site went down last week too.

There's only so many times that you'll press the F5 key before you decide it isn't important enough to post and just give up.
As it is yesterday I was working outside in just a t shirt, very rare for January I recorded a high of 14.9C, that's exceptional.

WheatenBriar

United road wrote: »

So are we done?
Nothing on the horizon!
I had read with interest MTs long range forecast months back offering snow possibilities and some of his more recent posts a couple of weeks back suggest snow chances around 26th jan, (obviously you give a weeks grace either side of that date) but you suggest we are done altogether now!
Who is right or on track to be right?

Impossible to say
Its January 24 and experience tells us once this Atlantic train gets going,we'll have at least 2 or three weeks of it maybe 4
That puts us closer to march tbh and when you're that late in the season,you'd be looking for a rarer and rarer shot of more extreme cold for to allow daytime snow to survive sunlight
It makes it harder to happen away from high ground yes
I've seen it happen at sea level in march,where it was cold enough to stick around for a week but that was 1978
For significant cold and snow for more than a week in February, that lasts a week or more, we need to go back to 1991
Both possible but very rare
Mind you so are January episodes but jan and feb are the months youd want to see them unless its a deeper even more unusual cold like the end nov and dec 2010
Most of the exciting easterly /n easterlies I remember from the 1980s were in January or February

Lumi

A quick glance through this thread in feedback discussing the effects of the ongoing DDOS attack might explain the lack of comment - posters are still experiencing issues with logging in, posting, uploading attachments etc. and not everyone has the time or the know-how to to try to work around these issues.
The tech staff are doing Trojan work to resolve this - it is taking time to prioritise and work through the various problems but they will get there!

For the record, I recorded a high of 13.9C at midday yesterday in Galway city and it was still a balmy 13.4C at midnight - exceptionally mild for January.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Lumi wrote: »

A quick glance through this thread in feedback discussing the effects of the ongoing DDOS attack might explain the lack of comment - posters are still experiencing issues with logging in, posting, uploading attachments etc. and not everyone has the time or the know-how to to try to work around these issues.
The tech staff are doing Trojan work to resolve this - it is taking time to prioritise and work through the various problems but they will get there!

For the record, I recorded a high of 13.9C at midday yesterday in Galway city and it was still a balmy 13.4C at midnight - exceptionally mild for January.

Seems to all be much better now !

JCX BXC

Thanks to almost unbroken sunshine all morning and afternoon the temp has actually been rising despite the forecasts to reach a current MAX of 10.7c.

jon burrows

http://s629.photobucket.com/user/dvmchugh/media/Europe_zpse7wvo9a5.png.html?sort=3&o=0

JCX BXC

jon burrows wrote: »

http://s629.photobucket.com/user/dvmchugh/media/Europe_zpse7wvo9a5.png.html?sort=3&o=0

I quite like that map.

jon burrows

Carnacalla wrote: »

I quite like that map.

Shnee everywhere:D:D:D:D:D

Schadenfreudia

Hit 15.5C here yesterday and a minimum of 13.3C....and I'm finding boards pages very slow to load since I returned after the Great Crash

Graces7

Morning from South Kerry, 400 asl... An old missionary lady used to say there are two kinds of people. Those who say" Good morning God" and those who say" Good God! Morning!" Today's awakening around 5 am up here was definitely the latter. Does not come with volume control , the weather...Loud and rumbustious. hurling rain and hail against the windows and howling at an invisible moon.. Had not been online since Friday; nasty bug attack picked up at Mizen Head Saturday..not checked eg Kerry coco etc but the road conditions from Bantry to Kenmare on Saturday were challenging especially Caha Pass. Everywhere is still sodden so will not take much to flood. Safe home now until next week so I can observe rather than participate apart from getting fuel in.. Jeepers; the NOISE up here!

SeaBreezes

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

Hit 15.5C here yesterday and a minimum of 13.3C....and I'm finding boards pages very slow to load since I returned after the Great Crash

I was having problems logging in as well, and even though I cleared my cache, it didnt work. Chrome has an option to go incognito, and that works and I can log in as well. No clue why tho ..

sryanbruen

Well loading speed is absolutely brilliant for me now, except when I post a post!

Schadenfreudia

sryanbruen wrote: »

Well loading speed is absolutely brilliant for me now, except when I post a post!

Ditto.

JCX BXC

I nearly missed the calming noise of rain beating off the window. The hail became a bit loud and not long sustained.

sryanbruen

Does anybody find it very remarkable how Aboyne in Scotland recorded its wettest January on record in the first 8 days?

Comhrá

Just took a look at the GFS and it's nothing but Westerly and South Westerly airflow with varying amounts of wind right out to 10/02/2016. No major storms flagged, just the usual few gales & windy days.

jack o shea

the sooner this "winter" is over the better,pathetic is the only word for it.

Graces7

Another wild wet NOISY night up here in the South Kerry mountains 400 asl. Checking the road reports and all the "usual" roads are flooded... https://twitter.com/countykerry?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Thankfully going nowhere until next week. All fine here ..cats in, dog fed, me fed.... not seen the state of the lane yet.. may make an interesting photo later.

cherryghost

Surprised nobody is mentioning snowfall for Saturday morning. Some people might awaken to some.

waterways

cherryghost wrote: »

Surprised nobody is mentioning snowfall for Saturday morning. Some people might awaken to some.

It was mentionend in the daily forecast here this morning.