Mediterranean migrants- specific questions

Lockstep

RandomName2 wrote: »

The real question isn't: why are Syrians coming to Europe?

It's: why now?

The Syrian Civil War is into fourth year, but only now has the trickle of refugees into Europe become a flood. Yet, there haven't been any major changes in the frontlines, or tactics employed by any side in the conflict in the last year.

Some of the refugees are presumably rebels who have fallen foul of recent government advances (the crowd videoed chanting Allahu Akbar and anti Assad soundbites would probably fit into this category); but this can't be predominantly the case.

So what is it? Is Turkey giving refugees the boot? Is the inability of the EU to deal with migrants from Africa providing encouragement to refugees to find better places to stay outside of Lebanon, Turkey, etc? Is there some other possibility?

I'd say there's multiple reasons but a large one is the recent and deep spending cuts to refugee camps : with Syrians living in increasingly difficult conditions and despairing of being able to return home. Given refugees in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon are prohibited from working, they don't really have any other option to survive.

Nodin

Lockstep wrote: »

I'd say there's multiple reasons but a large one is the recent and deep spending cuts to refugee camps : with Syrians living in increasingly difficult conditions and despairing of being able to return home. Given refugees in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon are prohibited from working, they don't really have any other option to survive.

That and the increased Turkish hostility towards the Kurds.

Wurzelbert

gobsh!te wrote: »

The UN says 51% are Syrian at present.

51% of mediterranian sea arrivals that is…much less in the overall number…for germany, according to this, in august 2015 some 30% of asylum seekers were syrian…

Lockstep

Wurzelbert wrote: »

51% of mediterranian sea arrivals that is…much less in the overall number…for germany, according to this, in august 2015 some 30% of asylum seekers were syrian…

Can't see anywhere there claiming 30% of asylum seekers are Syrian. It's linking to the homepage. Can you provide a direct link?

Wurzelbert

Lockstep wrote: »

Are they? If this was the case, surely the figure would be much higher than 51%

maybe not everybody is a liar…after all, faking one’s identity already takes some criminal energy…

Lockstep

Wurzelbert wrote: »

maybe not everybody is a liar…after all, faking one’s identity already takes some criminal energy…

No but if people are desperate enough to make the dangerous crossing to Europe and enter illegally, surely the numbers claiming to be Syrian would be much higher, given Syrians have a nearly 100% success rate for claiming asylum.

Wurzelbert

Lockstep wrote: »

No but if people are desperate enough to make the dangerous crossing to Europe and enter illegally, surely the numbers claiming to be Syrian would be much higher, given Syrians have a nearly 100% success rate for claiming asylum.

you’d think so…though it might be difficult for someone from eritrea or nigeria or so to pass for a syrian…

Lockstep

Wurzelbert wrote: »

you’d think so…though it might be difficult for someone from eritrea or nigeria or so to pass for a syrian…

Seeing as Eritreans have 84% success rate, their chances of being accepted are still very high. Presumably, those too dark to pretend to be Syrian would claim to be from Eritrea to increase their likelihood of gaining asylum and yet they make up just 8% of those crossing the Mediterranean.
If you're trying to argue that the UNHCR is using terrible data for how it records nationality, the onus is on you to disprove it. One would expect the UNHCR to be competent to undertake this, given this is exactly why it exists. Of course, it is capable of making mistakes but the onus is on you to disprove it.

Wurzelbert

Lockstep wrote: »

Can't see anywhere there claiming 30% of asylum seekers are Syrian. It's linking to the homepage. Can you provide a direct link?

sorry, only now saw your post…yes, there is a .pdf i downloaded from their statistics section under asylum figures...though it seems that’s only available in german for now…don’t think i can post pictures, otherwise i’d post a screenshot…
”hauptherkunftsländer” would be the main countries of origin…and i see from january 1st to august 31st 2015 the syrian percentage in germany is only some 23%...in the same .pdf

Rightwing

Lockstep wrote: »

There does seem to be a common misconception that Syrians are desperate to come here and claim social welfare.
There's very little evidence for this: before its civil war, Syria was a middle income country with a literate population. There was never this sort of migration crisis from Syria before (to my knowledge)
As such, it is a large stretch to think that Syrians are suddenly deciding they want to move to Europe and sit on the dole, ignoring that their country has collapsed and over half of the population is either internally displaced within their failed state or else stuck in places like Turkey and Lebanon where they're unable to claim asylum or provide for themselves.

I would tend to agree with you. A problem people have, myself included, is no one really knows where many of these people are coming from, or who they are.

I don't really care whether they are economic migrants or genuine refugees. As far as I can see it, the whole world has an obligation to do something, not just Europe because it is close. Starving Africans have as much a right to seek refugee status as those in war torn countries as far as I can tell.

Lockstep

Wurzelbert wrote: »

sorry, only now saw your post…yes, there is a .pdf i downloaded from their statistics section under asylum figures...though it seems that’s only available in german for now…don’t think i can post pictures, otherwise i’d post a screenshot…
”hauptherkunftsländer” would be the main countries of origin…and i see from january 1st to august 31st 2015 the syrian percentage in germany is only some 23%...in the same .pdf

Thanks for that: although this would only involve those who have successfully reached Germany. Given how difficult this is from Syria, it would be a lot lower than the total numbers of asylum seekers.

Wurzelbert

Lockstep wrote: »

Thanks for that: although this would only involve those who have successfully reached Germany. Given how difficult this is from Syria, it would be a lot lower than the total numbers of asylum seekers.

yes, these are the figures for asylum seekers in germany…according to eurostat syrians made up some 21% of first time asylum applicants in the eu-28 in q2 2015…

Wurzelbert

Lockstep wrote: »

There does seem to be a common misconception that Syrians are desperate to come here and claim social welfare.
There's very little evidence for this: before its civil war, Syria was a middle income country with a literate population. There was never this sort of migration crisis from Syria before (to my knowledge)
As such, it is a large stretch to think that Syrians are suddenly deciding they want to move to Europe and sit on the dole, ignoring that their country has collapsed and over half of the population is either internally displaced within their failed state or else stuck in places like Turkey and Lebanon where they're unable to claim asylum or provide for themselves.

true, and if it was only syrians on the move, things wouldn’t be as bad as they are…

A Primal Nut

Lockstep wrote: »

Arabs aren't any more evil or fanatical than Westerners. We have plenty of them here. Luckily, our states are far more capable of preventing such groups from gaining traction.

In small numbers, yes. There is a danger of them being overwhelmed however. As they said before, when terrorist attacks happen, they can't monitor everyone.

A Primal Nut

Lockstep wrote: »

Not necessarily as they vary a fair amount. I wouldn't like to live in any of them, but they're not as bad as each other. Tunisia is a free country, others like Kuwait are less so while Saudi Arabia is right at the bottom.
A secular Arab nationalist state like Egypt is very different form a theocracy like Saudi Arabia. This is something a lot of people seem to miss out on. Syrians grew up under an oppressive but secular state and the origins for the civil war are democracy protests in 2011. And yet, listening to the media nowadays, you'd think all the Syrians are frothing bigots, desperate to impose Sharia law.

The media are afraid to discuss the reality of large numbers of Muslims immigrating to Europe. Most are in favour of it.

Yes, there are cultural differences in different Muslim countries particularly in the Balkans, Central Asia and Africa; but in the Middle East when it comes to Sharia Law Muslims are fairly consistent:

http://www.pewforum.org/2013/04/30/the-worlds-muslims-religion-politics-society-overview/

No stats related to Syria, but in Jordan, a similar country; 71% want Sharia Law in their country.

Now I know you will say there are different interpretations of Sharia Law, but any mention of making Sharia Law the official law in their country has no place in the political opinions of anyone who is tolerant of other religious beliefs.

According to that report, regarding interpretation of Sharia Law, the percentage of people in South Asia and Middle East - North Africa supporting the death penalty for anyone who leaves Islam is scary.

Nodin

A Primal Nut wrote: »

The media are afraid to discuss the reality of large numbers of Muslims immigrating to Europe. Most are in favour of it.

Yes, there are cultural differences in different Muslim countries particularly in the Balkans, Central Asia and Africa; but in the Middle East when it comes to Sharia Law Muslims are fairly consistent:
............

I really don't see how generalisations about muslims are valid in relation to what is primarily a refugee crisis, to be blunt. Nor the whole 'they believe in Sharia law' line in general - we aren't going to be introducing it, nor is Germany etc.

Lockstep

A Primal Nut wrote: »

The media are afraid to discuss the reality of large numbers of Muslims immigrating to Europe. Most are in favour of it.

Yes, there are cultural differences in different Muslim countries particularly in the Balkans, Central Asia and Africa; but in the Middle East when it comes to Sharia Law Muslims are fairly consistent:

http://www.pewforum.org/2013/04/30/the-worlds-muslims-religion-politics-society-overview/

No stats related to Syria, but in Jordan, a similar country; 71% want Sharia Law in their country.

Now I know you will say there are different interpretations of Sharia Law, but any mention of making Sharia Law the official law in their country has no place in the political opinions of anyone who is tolerant of other religious beliefs.

According to that report, regarding interpretation of Sharia Law, the percentage of people in South Asia and Middle East - North Africa supporting the death penalty for anyone who leaves Islam is scary.

I'm not sure how Jordan is similar to Syria, given different governments (monarchy vs secular republic) ethnicities (significant Kurdish population in Syria) or that Syria is one of the most advanced countries in the Middle East when it comes to women's rights.

Not sure why you think Jordan can be used a barometer for Syrians.

Lockstep

Wurzelbert wrote: »

true, and if it was only syrians on the move, things wouldn’t be as bad as they are…

Yes but the vast majority arriving across the Mediterranean are coming from Syria, Eritrea and Afghanistan: three countries where they have a very, very high chance of getting asylum due to valid fears of persecution.

Wurzelbert

Nodin wrote: »

I really don't see how generalisations about muslims are valid in relation to what is primarily a refugee crisis, to be blunt. Nor the whole 'they believe in Sharia law' line in general - we aren't going to be introducing it, nor is Germany etc.

it is really a migrant crisis which actual refugees are merely one element of…and while you are right in that sharia law won’t be introduced around here anytime soon, this is only a question of majorities and therefore of time…and of course sharia law already “applies” in many ghettos all over europe…

Lockstep

Wurzelbert wrote: »

yes, these are the figures for asylum seekers in germany…according to eurostat syrians made up some 21% of first time asylum applicants in the eu-28 in q2 2015…

Addressed above

Lockstep

A Primal Nut wrote: »

In small numbers, yes. There is a danger of them being overwhelmed however. As they said before, when terrorist attacks happen, they can't monitor everyone.

Wait, just how many refugees do you think are being taken in? Enough to overwhelm Europe?
No need for hysteria.

Wurzelbert

Lockstep wrote: »

Addressed above

yes, let’s wait until they update their statistics, shouldn’t be too long…

Nodin

Wurzelbert wrote: »

it is really a migrant crisis which actual refugees are merely one element of…and while you are right in that sharia law won’t be introduced around here anytime soon, this is only a question of majorities and therefore of time…and of course sharia law already “applies” in many ghettos all over europe…

More nonsense and wild speculation, tbh.

A Primal Nut

Lockstep wrote: »

I'm not sure how Jordan is similar to Syria, given different governments (monarchy vs secular republic) ethnicities (significant Kurdish population in Syria) or that Syria is one of the most advanced countries in the Middle East when it comes to women's rights.

Not sure why you think Jordan can be used a barometer for Syrians.

The Kurdish population in Syria is only 10-15%.

It's naive to think that Syria is somehow immune from the cultural beliefs of the surrounding countries.

"Secular" Tunisia has 56% support for sharia law as the law for their country.

Anyway, many refugees are from Afghanistan where they have a 99% support for Sharia Law, and Iraq which is at 91%.

RandomName2

Lockstep wrote: »

Wait, just how many refugees do you think are being taken in? Enough to overwhelm Europe?
No need for hysteria.

100,000 people aren't going to be enough to overwhelm Europe - though there will be inevitable problems with that sort of number.

10 million would be enough to overwhelm Europe however; while even a million would be sufficient to potentially cause long term issues. At the moment, discussions are focusing on only a fraction of that number (800,000 in Germany).

Would 10 million be on the cards? Sure, why not? At the moment Europe (with the exception of Spain and Hungary) is actively helping anybody attempting to gain entry to the EU. I mean, if I were a poor man in Sudan or Niger, I'd hop on a dinghy and claim asylum as an Eritrean; but not before going to Germany, Sweden, the UK, France or Belgium first.

Not all people in Africa or Asia would be better off in the EU; but there'd be plenty who would: certainly enough to overwhelm the EU. It's already been implied that anyone coming from problem areas like Afghanistan will receive almost automatic permanent asylum; therefore all bets are off.

Nodin

A Primal Nut wrote: »

The Kurdish population in Syria is only 10-15%.

It's naive to think that Syria is somehow immune from the cultural beliefs of the surrounding countries.

"Secular" Tunisia has 56% support for sharia law as the law for their country.

Anyway, many refugees are from Afghanistan where they have a 99% support for Sharia Law, and Iraq which is at 91%.

And again, "scary scary muslims" is not a logical argument against accepting refugees, nor is it a legal basis for same.

RDM_83 again

Lockstep wrote: »

I'd say there's multiple reasons but a large one is the recent and deep spending cuts to refugee camps : with Syrians living in increasingly difficult conditions and despairing of being able to return home. Given refugees in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon are prohibited from working, they don't really have any other option to survive.

In the light of this view it seems ironic that people have such an issue with the current approach of the British, they contribute 2nd after the USA to these programs and are so arguably doing more for those in need than countries like Germany which appear to favour the most wealthy or least risk averse/physically capable.

jackofalltrades

Lockstep wrote: »

That's only going up as far as June: numbers have risen a lot since then, particularly sea crossings in August , particualrly given the exponential growth in Syrian refugees.

It will be interesting to see the figures for Q3 2015.
Because the figure for Syrians as a percentage of total asylum seekers, hasn't increased all that much Q1 2015 to Q2 2015 showing an increase from 16% to 21%.
I think there's a effort to frame this crisis as mainly a Syrian crisis.
And while there definitely is a Syrian crisis, it's only a small part of a much bigger picture.

According to Frontex, Syrians constitute 42% of those making illegal border crossings alone in 2015.

Where exactly is the 42% figure on that page?

Lockstep

Wurzelbert wrote: »

it is really a migrant crisis which actual refugees are merely one element of…and while you are right in that sharia law won’t be introduced around here anytime soon, this is only a question of majorities and therefore of time…and of course sharia law already “applies” in many ghettos all over europe…

Well, seeing as over 70% of arrivals in Europe are from three countries where there's such a risk of persecution that they have an excellent chance of successfully claiming asylum, it's much more valid to call it a refugee crisis than a migrant one.

Lockstep

jackofalltrades wrote: »

It will be interesting to see the figures for Q3 2015.
Because the figure for Syrians as a percentage of total asylum seekers, hasn't increased all that much Q1 2015 to Q2 2015 showing an increase from 16% to 21%.

Actually, it has. Between 2014 and the end of the second quarter in 2015, the number of Syrian refugees rose by over 100%
Particularly since July, August and part of September have seen more refugees arrive than the previous quarter combined. This is especially the case for Syrian refugees given the recent spending cuts to their aid, forcing them to head elsewhere.

jackofalltrades wrote: »

I think there's a effort to frame this crisis as mainly a Syrian crisis.
And while there definitely is a Syrian crisis, it's only a small part of a much bigger picture.

A very significant part. Not a small part.

jackofalltrades wrote: »

Where exactly is the 42% figure on that page?

Hover over the coloured arrows.
Add together the numbers of Syrians (211431) and divide it by the total number of refugees and migrants (504588). 42% if my calculations aren't off.