Mediterranean migrants- specific questions

Sand

That and the reality that the Italians were never, ever asked for approval of the incredibly radical policy of permitting and enabling illegal mass migration into Europe. Of course you don't leave people to drown. But it doesn't follow that you then have to permit them entry and reward illegal behaviour, and divert resources from helping the truly desperate who could not illegally enter Europe.

Europeans have not become more right wing: 'moderate' politicians have become increasingly non-electable through the pursuit of radical and misguided policies. People are increasingly voting for parties with sensible policies regarding what is a growing problem for so many European countries. Its maybe still not the priority when people are casting their votes, as seen in France, the Netherlands and Germany but its only increasing as an issue.

Berlusconi's policy of deporting 600,000 illegal migrants from Italy only sounds radical from a position that thinks accepting 600,000 illegal migrants is completely normal and reasonable.

4068ac1elhodqr

Italy in this instance, also suffers severely from highly organised crime in the South and Sicily.
The €Billion trafficking industry and illegal labour markets benefits the very few, and not the many.

As such, Italy is now joint favourite (with bankrupt Greece) to be the next country to leave Europe.

With weeks to go until elections, Italy's Northern League is starting to dangle the 'EU exit carrot'.

oscarBravo

Penny Agreeable Sauerkraut wrote: »

With weeks to go until elections, Italy's Northern League is starting to dangle the 'EU exit carrot'.

"Look how well it's going for the UK!"

Yeah, that's some carrot.

Pepefrogok

oscarBravo wrote: »

"Look how well it's going for the UK!"

Yeah, that's some carrot.

Actually not going to bad! Growth revised up, low unemployment, wage growth and inflation peaked at 3%, hardly the disaster project fear predicted now is it? If anything whatever countries are next to leave will laugh at project fear in their own debates. Think about it, if the average Italian looking on at his country being swamped by third worlders commuting crime, rape and carrying disease at per capita very high rates and the best argument to staying in the EU is "look how bad the UK is doing" it's not going to fly.

4068ac1elhodqr

Brexit hasn’t happened as yet, so can’t be assumed to be either good nor bad. Only several years after it fully occurs could it be properly assessed, and even then that depends on which tools of measurement are used (fiscal, self-determination, migration, employment, crime etc). No doubt another referendum to rejoin will appear anyway around 2025 if it's deemed not successful enough.

Although there was a temporary dip in Dec, border crossings to Italy have doubled for Janurary, to 4,800.

Data on “irregular border crossings” released by European border agency (Frontex) yesterday, revealed Eritreans made up the largest group of migrants on the route, followed by Pakistanis and Tunisians.

Meanwhile in Spain the 1,300 arrivals detected last month was more than 20 per cent higher than a year ago. As the weather improves, expect to see plenty more…

A European Commission spokesman said migration would remain a challenge “for decades”

weisses

Pepefrogok wrote: »

Actually not going to bad! Growth revised up, low unemployment, wage growth and inflation peaked at 3%, hardly the disaster project fear predicted now is it? If anything whatever countries are next to leave will laugh at project fear in their own debates. Think about it, if the average Italian looking on at his country being swamped by third worlders commuting crime, rape and carrying disease at per capita very high rates and the best argument to staying in the EU is "look how bad the UK is doing" it's not going to fly.

Aahhh yes ... all depends on what color glasses you choose to wear

http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2018/02/08/na021418-uk-economy-must-get-more-efficient

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/feb/13/uk-inflation-living-standards-squeeze-brexit-pound

Sand

Penny Agreeable Sauerkraut wrote: »

With weeks to go until elections, Italy's Northern League is starting to dangle the 'EU exit carrot'.

Leaving the EU is electoral cancer, not a carrot. In France, Le Pen now admits she cant win office whilst campaigning to take France out of the EU. She campaigned on leaving the Euro when contemporary polling showed that 72% wanted to remain in it! Utterly stupid. In the Netherlands Geert Wilders vowed to call an EU referendum if he won office in 2017. He then promptly lost the 2017 election. As demonstrated in the German elections, despite Merkel presiding over an unmitigated disaster in 2015 and presenting them with perfect electoral conditions, the AfD will never amount to more than a protest vote while they too toy with exiting the EU.

The lesson was learned by parties of the now Austrian government: they made it extremely clear they were not campaigning to take Austria out of the EU and they won.

People want an end to mass migration from outside the EU AND they want to remain in the EU and enjoy the prosperity, common purpose and the freedoms that come with it. The ever closer union of the peoples of Europe might be more or less popular, but a total rejection of that union is not a vote winner. A European identity is seen as complementary to a national identity, not a threat to it as it is seen in the UK. The UK is unique in being itself a multi-national union, so it sees the EU (a larger multi-national union) as a rival. No one else feels that way on any sort of scale. Anti-EU policies are the domain of cranks and fantasists as the UK is finding out.

4068ac1elhodqr

Sand wrote: »

Leaving the EU is electoral cancer, not a carrot.

It was a carrot that was offered, taken, bitten by the UK on June 2016.

As already stated, Italy is joint favourite to leave the EU. France, Netherlands or Germany are unlikely to leave anytime soon, this is of course fair to assume.

But with further expansion of the EU on the longer-term horizon particularly with Turkey, perhaps this will be seen by many as a stick too far.

Not to mention the Barcelona Declaration, which aims to create influence across the entire Mediterranean basin i.e. North Africa. Nor another decade of mass migration to contend with.

Would not be surprised to see others follow the UK's lead within the decade, if it works out for them.

Sand

Penny Agreeable Sauerkraut wrote: »

It was a carrot that was offered, taken, bitten by the UK on June 2016.

The carrot was offered and rejected in France, Netherlands and Germany. The dream that Britain was going to be the first of many to exit the EU has been shown to be false.

As noted, the UK is unique in its constitution and the crisis in that consistution. Its unique in its population being subjected to decades of propaganda. And its unique in that its primary population, the English, have little or no political method of expression for their national identity (unlike the Scots, unlike the Welsh, unlike the Northern Irish).

The British experience of Brexit is serving as an abject lesson in why you shouldn't indulge cranks and fantasists. They are tearing themselves apart and it would be amusing if it wasn't so sad. If the Italians want to resolve the migration crisis, then they need to focus on being elected to resolve the migration crisis for Italy. Not any other hobby horse issues which are electoral cancer.

4068ac1elhodqr

Sand wrote: »

The carrot was offered and rejected in France, Netherlands and Germany. The dream that Britain was going to be the first of many to exit the EU has been shown to be false.

As noted, the UK is unique in its constitution and the crisis in that consistution. Its unique in its population being subjected to decades of propaganda. And its unique in that its primary population, the English, have little or no political method of expression for their national identity (unlike the Scots, unlike the Welsh, unlike the Northern Irish).

The British experience of Brexit is serving as an abject lesson in why you shouldn't indulge cranks and fantasists. They are tearing themselves apart and it would be amusing if it wasn't so sad. If the Italians want to resolve the migration crisis, then they need to focus on being elected to resolve the migration crisis for Italy. Not any other hobby horse issues which are electoral cancer.

The carrot was never really expected to get taken the euro heartlands of Germany or France, still for LePen to have had a 20-30% chance of power at one stage, surpassed what Farage's UKIP have ever achieved.

You can't simply dismiss 52% of the 2nd largest ever vote ever in the UK as being 'misguided or misinformed', they had real unresolved issues with the EU and expressed them as such.

The unfortunate truth for Italy within the EU is that there is no 'easy solution' to another decade of migration issues, they'll just have to put up with it.

Poland, Italy and Hungry etc appear to have expressed some issues now with the EU, and so it's largely up to the EU to resolve them.

Sand

Penny Agreeable Sauerkraut wrote: »

Still for LePen to have had a 20-30% chance of power at one stage, surpassed what Farage's UKIP have ever achieved.

LePen could have won had she not been so dead set on a policy that the French voter is so dead set against. The AfD could have delivered a knockout blow to Merkel had they not threatened the average German voter with a policy they are so against. Wilders could have won in the Netherlands had he not championed a policy the Dutch voters are against.

What you're admitting is what I stated: proclaiming a policy to exit the EU is electoral cancer. Where we differ is you think the policy has no effect on the voter's decision. The Austrian government won power because they didn't force the voters to choose between their policies on mass migration and EU membership.

You can't simply dismiss 52% of the 2nd largest ever vote ever in the UK as being 'misguided or misinformed', they had real unresolved issues with the EU and expressed them as such.

I didn't say any of those things, and to be honest I've little interest in discussing Brexit. It was a purely British phenomenon for the reasons I've already noted. There is in any case an entirely different thread for it.

The unfortunate truth for Italy within the EU is that there is no 'easy solution' to another decade of migration issues, they'll just have to put up with it.

Poland, Italy and Hungry etc appear to have expressed some issues now with the EU, and so it's largely up to the EU to resolve them

There is some fairly achievable solutions. Close their ports to vessels ferrying illegal migrants to Italy. Pay Libya to accept the immediate return of rescued migrants from the sea, rather than bringing them to Italy. Deport the illegal migrants that are in Italy. Close or greatly restrict family re-unification. Use survivor stories to educate people in the countries of origins about the reality of the horrors they would face attempting to make the trip and the utter futility of it when they are denied entry. Lobby the EU to adopt similar measures on a wider basis - as you note, there is a faction developing within the EU against mass migration. The EU is ultimately a reflection of its members interests. As they change, the EU changes.

Nihilism is not a great selling point with voters: they want governments which identify and implement solutions. Not parties which profess there are no solutions and no policies. That's the mistake 'centrist' parties have made when discussing mass migration in particular, and globalism in general.

4068ac1elhodqr

Sand wrote: »

There is some fairly achievable solutions. Close their ports to vessels ferrying illegal migrants to Italy. Pay Libya to accept the immediate return of rescued migrants from the sea, rather than bringing them to Italy. Deport the illegal migrants that are in Italy. Close or greatly restrict family re-unification. Use survivor stories to educate people in the countries of origins about the reality of the horrors they would face attempting to make the trip and the utter futility of it when they are denied entry. Lobby the EU to adopt similar measures on a wider basis - as you note, there is a faction developing within the EU against mass migration. The EU is ultimately a reflection of its members interests. As they change, the EU changes.

So, 'no easy solutions'.

creeper1

How similar was Australia’s situation? Is it in any way applicable to the European crisis?

I know they simply refused to allow migrants to apply for asylum on Australian territory.

I doubt the migrants would allow themselves to be transferred back to Libya once on board a rescue ship. They paid a handsome amount to people traffickers and traversed continents to be in Europe.

Any announcement of return to Libya would signal disorder, disobedience and probably extreme violence.

4068ac1elhodqr

creeper1 wrote: »

How similar was Australia’s situation? Is it in any way applicable to the European crisis?

I know they simply refused to allow migrants to apply for asylum on Australian territory.

I doubt the migrants would allow themselves to be transferred back to Libya once on board a rescue ship. They paid a handsome amount to people traffickers and traversed continents to be in Europe.

Any announcement of return to Libya would signal disorder, disobedience and probably extreme violence.

The Aussies do what they want, whereas member states of the EU have to abide by wider consensus, and often what they're told to by unelected officials.

Illegal migration and traffickers don't and shouldn't really have any say, irrespective of how much they paid their journey. If places like Libya actually controlled their own borders, the problem wouldn't be as bad.

Of course there are some genuine cases seeking refuge, once the flow is stemmed, the next priority should be to asses these cases. Ideally not upon transfer to a sea taxi from a floating dingy where no documentation or verification are made available.

Mass migration over the centuries has generally been very beneficial for all, however by 2030 up to 50% of the global workforce will be lost due to the rise of the 4th industrial revolution (automation, ai, robotics). There will be close to zero demand for unskilled blue collar workers, in the near future.

recedite

This guy seems to have had a "sexual emergency" en route from Dublin to Carlow.

The court heard that a deportation order is in place, which he is appealing.

Crazy that somebody like that can remain in the country, with the Irish taxpayer/sucker paying the legal bills for both sides in the deportation debate, in an endless cycle of stalling and appeal.

Sand

creeper1 wrote: »

I doubt the migrants would allow themselves to be transferred back to Libya once on board a rescue ship. They paid a handsome amount to people traffickers and traversed continents to be in Europe.

Any announcement of return to Libya would signal disorder, disobedience and probably extreme violence.

By unarmed, exhausted, half drowned people pulled out of the sea, against fresh and armed sailors? I wouldn't fancy their chances if it came to that.

The reality though is people are routinely deported against their will. It's still done. In the case of the above you simply get the people below decks ASAP so they are disorientated, don't announce your intention and simply tell them they are disembarking in Italy. Sure, they'll be upset when they figure it out. But they'll be upset in Libya.

The important thing is it wont be an enduring requirement. Ensure the cases of failed illegal migration are heavily publicised in their countries of origin and the flow of people into Europe will stop.

recedite wrote: »

Crazy that somebody like that can remain in the country, with the Irish taxpayer/sucker paying the legal bills for both sides in the deportation debate, in an endless cycle of stalling and appeal.

And that's not even the craziest thing in that case.

The court heard that identifying the man will not identify the victim but that she does not want him named because it will “destroy his life”.

What about the next victim of this guy getting some warning? Because there will be a next victim if he is not deported.

recedite

Predictable results being reported today in the Italian election results, with alternative politics being the big winners; Lega Nord and the 5 Star movement.
Lega Nord has been around for a while, criticising the imposition of Franco German european policies especially regarding the open borders.

5 Star being relatively new, with an emphasis on direct democracy and sustainablility. They have embraced the concept of the steady state economy, which is at odds with the constant growth model favoured by banksters such as Peter Sutherland and George Soros, which requires constant immigration.
The 5 Star leader said last year...

Luigi Di Maio, who is expected to lead the populist Five-Star movement in next year’s vote, called for“an immediate stop to the sea-taxi service”. The Five-Star is ahead of the ruling Democratic Party in polls.

Unfortunately that "sea-taxi service" would have included the Irish Navy as well as MSF and a few other NGOs that were operating at the time (some still operating)

Whichever govt. is formed will now join Austria and the Visegrad countries in their attempts to remedy the damage done by Merkel's former open door policy for Europe.

piplip87

Instead of supplying the Sea Taxi Service. Could the EU all member states not commit troops on the ground in coordination with the Africian Union to stop them from boarding the boats. Send police officers from each nation to help investigate and detain the traffickers.


I think there is sections within the EU that want as many migrants as possible to take low paid work in the future.

4068ac1elhodqr

piplip87 wrote: »

Instead of supplying the Sea Taxi Service. Could the EU all member states not commit troops on the ground in coordination with the Africian Union to stop them from boarding the boats. Send police officers from each nation to help investigate and detain the traffickers.

I think there is sections within the EU that want as many migrants as possible to take low paid work in the future.

That's what the various Italian parties want, more distribution across the EU or in some cases the Africa Marshall Plan.

Note: There will be little or no low paid work in the future (automation), this workforce concept has had it's day.

recedite

piplip87 wrote: »

Instead of supplying the Sea Taxi Service. Could the EU all member states not commit troops on the ground in coordination with the African Union to stop them from boarding the boats.

In theory a good idea. In practice, you'd be violating Libyan sovereignty (that's assuming it was a nation under one govt, as opposed to a bunch of warring factions)
Also its unlikely that the AU would want to contribute troops anyway. Emigration to Europe is probably a useful "pressure release valve" for governments there.

recedite

Penny Agreeable Sauerkraut wrote: »

That's what the various Italian parties want, more distribution across the EU

That's what the outgoing parties wanted. Mandatory relocation of migrants and more funding etc..

The incoming parties are a bit more realistic. They are talking about deportations.

4068ac1elhodqr

recedite wrote: »

That's what the outgoing parties wanted. Mandatory relocation of migrants and more funding etc..

The incoming parties are a bit more realistic. They are talking about deportations.

Cen-right, but 5☆ said they'd consider 'distribution across the rest of Europe' obviously that could be a big issue for the likes of Poland or Hungry.

recedite

Penny Agreeable Sauerkraut wrote: »

but 5☆ said they'd consider 'distribution across the rest of Europe' obviously that could be a big issue for the likes of Poland or Hungry.

It depends on what exact coalition emerges. If the Lega Nord and Berlosconi right wing is involved, that will be steered more towards deportations and reinforcing the EU external border. In other words it will align with what the Visegrad countries and Austria are already saying.

That in turn will put pressure on the French and Germans to drop their failed policy of a porous EU external border combined with mandatory migrant relocations.

Varik

recedite wrote: »

In theory a good idea. In practice, you'd be violating Libyan sovereignty (that's assuming it was a nation under one govt, as opposed to a bunch of warring factions)
Also its unlikely that the AU would want to contribute troops anyway. Emigration to Europe is probably a useful "pressure release valve" for governments there.

Italian Navy already does, and doe so with some partial agreement from some of the factions.

Tea drinker

recedite wrote: »

In theory a good idea. In practice, you'd be violating Libyan sovereignty (that's assuming it was a nation under one govt, as opposed to a bunch of warring factions)
Also its unlikely that the AU would want to contribute troops anyway. Emigration to Europe is probably a useful "pressure release valve" for governments there.

Violating sovereignty is meaningless now.
Look at US in Syria, Turkey in Syria.
US in Kosovo.
Russian's in Crimea. The law is what you can defend with an artillery barrage.

recedite

Violating sovereignty leads to hostile reaction from the country in question, which is usually counter productive.
Its possible to go in with a limited amount of military assets, by agreement.
That does not violate sovereignty. Like the Russians in Syria.
There are some EU assets operating in the Sahara in cooperation with Libyan personnel AFAIK, which is part of a newer policy.

Sand

Penny Agreeable Sauerkraut wrote: »

That's what the various Italian parties want, more distribution across the EU or in some cases the Africa Marshall Plan.

Note: There will be little or no low paid work in the future (automation), this workforce concept has had it's day.

Italian parties wont get either, to be honest. Firstly, other countries do not want migrants. And the EU has proven unable to force them to take migrants.

And a Marshall Plan for Africa has a number of issues. Italy has no money to fund it. If there was a source of money to fund employment, the large numbers of unemployed young people in Italy, Greece, Spain and so on should take priority for it. Thirdly, Africa's issues are not a shortage of wealth, resources or even investment. Its a shortage of good governance. Throwing more money at Africa will simply be more money wasted. Fourthly, these people are not interested in finding jobs: they want to find social welfare benefits. Sweden is seeing this with pitiful numbers of migrants (2-3%) willing to take advantage of training provided to them for free.

The only valid solution is to stop trafficking the migrants from Libya to Italy, and to deport the illegal migrants who already reached Italy. That would immediately aid Italy and can secure wide EU support.

4068ac1elhodqr

Sand wrote: »

Italian parties wont get either, to be honest. Firstly, other countries do not want migrants. And the EU has proven unable to force them to take migrants.

And a Marshall Plan for Africa has a number of issues. Italy has no money to fund it. If there was a source of money to fund employment, the large numbers of unemployed young people in Italy, Greece, Spain and so on should take priority for it. Thirdly, Africa's issues are not a shortage of wealth, resources or even investment. Its a shortage of good governance. Throwing more money at Africa will simply be more money wasted. Fourthly, these people are not interested in finding jobs: they want to find social welfare benefits. Sweden is seeing this with pitiful numbers of migrants (2-3%) willing to take advantage of training provided to them for free.

The only valid solution is to stop trafficking the migrants from Libya to Italy, and to deport the illegal migrants who already reached Italy. That would immediately aid Italy and can secure wide EU support.

(All) the Italian parties want either distribution or of the MAP or similar (eu funded, stopping and deporting). They won't consider other options that equate to more of the same.

So if the EU won't stop or force other members to take them, the Italians in a likely stalemate of a political hornets nest, will begin re-examine the whole point of their club membership.

recedite

Spring is in the air, and the Irish Navy once again sets sail for the Med.
But the mission is different this year.

The naval vessel LE Samuel Beckett has left for the Mediterranean to take part in an EU operation to disrupt human trafficking and smuggling networks there.
A crew of 54 members of the Defence Forces is taking part in Operation Sophia.
The mission mandates the crew to identify, capture and dispose of vessels involved in human trafficking in an area of the south-central Mediterranean

What are the chances of the LE Sam Beckett sinking a migrant/people trafficker boat? And if they do, where will they take the people who were on board?
https://www.rte.ie/news/munster/2018/0415/954631-le-samuel-beckett-cork/

4068ac1elhodqr

recedite wrote: »

Spring is in the air, and the Irish Navy once again sets sail for the Med.
But the mission is different this year.

What are the chances of the LE Sam Beckett sinking a migrant/people trafficker boat? And if they do, where will they take the people who were on board?
https://www.rte.ie/news/munster/2018/0415/954631-le-samuel-beckett-cork/

It might well be a pig in a dress, if they sink their unsafe vessels they'll naturally have a responsibility for the safety and well-being of passengers, and thus continue the annual taxi service up to Sicily or somewhere.

The only real change would be cruise close in along the shoreline of NA (along with other partners) to seek, seize and tow anything shanty-looking, back in their before they get out too far.

The recent Italian elections highlighted Italy's concerns, and the need for better solutions. Likely the processing of applicants on dry land in NA, instead of hundred of miles way out in the deep blue.