FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

maquiladora

GFS continues to show possible wind event(s) around the 28-30th.

Rock Lesnar

maquiladora wrote: »

GFS continues to show possible wind event(s) around the 28-30th.

Yeah, person from ME on local radio earlier mentioned the possibility of another named event before new years.

maquiladora

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Yeah, person from ME on local radio earlier mentioned the possibility of another named event before new years.

Possibly two.

Rock Lesnar

maquiladora wrote: »

Possibly two.

Great more Rain to, i cant wait, could do with some more flooding, i haven't had any for 10 days in a row now

cyclops999

River Shannon in Athlone could rise by 40mm by the weekend, it has only dropped by about 70mm so still a serious threat of flooding.

Rikand

Windy day monday, but the innocuous looking lump out in the Atlantic turns into a monster on wednesday



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The12thMan

Rikand wrote: »

Windy day monday, but the innocuous looking lump out in the Atlantic turns into a monster on wednesday



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cant believe this one dosent have its own thread yet, if EVE is orange, what will this be.... surely RED

Reckless Abandonment

The12thMan wrote: »

cant believe this one dosent have its own thread yet, if EVE is orange, what will this be.... surely RED

Long way off yet. If it's showing that strong 48h out I'll start getting concerned

Villain

We have seen storms like this FI totally miss us so while it is worth looking at it belongs in FI thread at present.

JanuarySnowstor

12Z gfs ramping it up again
It may not happen
If it did it would be devastating as it's a hurricane in all but name

ninebeanrows

Incredible

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.gif

The12thMan

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

12Z gfs ramping it up again
It may not happen
If it did it would be devastating as it's a hurricane in all but name

very true, have not seen one like that since last feb

ninebeanrows

UKM going for insane low too, but keeps it as a fish. Still v. Windy

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015122312/UW144-21.GIF?23-17

Iancar29

maquiladora

That low on the GFS peaks just before it reaches Ireland. +150 km/h gusts on the southwest coast. If the timing was just a bit different you'd have a truely historic storm.

Chances of it actually happening? Very slim. But not impossible.

ninebeanrows

There is potential for a 'Storm of a generation' in the run up to New Years.

We have been blessed in recent years with the general synoptic pattern to escape a devastating storm on a widespread scale. Our luck will run out soon.

dacogawa

Yes, been watching this one closely for the last few runs as it built (trying to arrange flights for the missus, she doesn't like flying in windy weather) I wonder will the ECM start to pull towards this on the next run...

The Atlantic has been quite for a while now, it's bound to come back with a roar sooner or later :eek:

maquiladora

Just noticed the 12Z GFS brings in a second very deep low just a couple of days after that! Crazy run.

dacogawa

maquiladora wrote: »

Just noticed the 12Z GFS brings in a second very deep low just a couple of days after that! Crazy run.

I know, the GFS must have got it hands on the Christmas sherry

Go home GFS, you're drunk!

B17G

Crystal meth for this ensemble.......

M.T. Cranium

Two of them! c'mon GFS, surely one is enough?

maquiladora

ECM

dacogawa

maquiladora wrote: »

That low on the GFS peaks just before it reaches Ireland. +150 km/h gusts on the southwest coast. If the timing was just a bit different you'd have a truely historic storm.

Chances of it actually happening? Very slim. But not impossible.

I think with that ECM run the odds have come down a bit Maq

And it was nowhere on the last ECM, next few runs of all the models will be interesting...

Hello storm Frank

M.T. Cranium

The 500-mb panel of the GFS for that first of the two very deep lows (30th) is showing a rather difficult to accept 484 dm lobe of the polar vortex swooping down and capturing the wave. The GEM model has almost the same evolution to 29th but does not phase the upper low with the surface low and the result is a rather tame slight deepening to 970 mbs and well off the coast at that by 30th. The second low does not appear at all on the GEM, instead there is slow development off to the south in an increasingly blocked pattern.

Normally one would favour the GFS over the GEM but on occasion the Canadian model performs better. Let's hope this is one such time because that 932 mb low is basically the 1839 storm with minor variations, and the second one is almost as severe looking (it tends to develop a bit later in the approach).

Any of these severe wind storms are quite plausible given the Atlantic SST patterns and the major energy jolts that would be inserted into the jet stream by unusual synoptics over the eastern U.S.A. this next week or two. At the moment there is a significant severe weather outbreak in the Ohio valley to the Gulf of Mexico and in the dry slot behind that tomorrow, highs of 80 F are predicted in Virginia (normal is about 50 F). So it is basically this energy redeveloping over the Gulf stream then being forced into a tighter jet stream that is being partially shaped by the cold blob of ocean waters north of the Azores.

However, I am not totally buying into this yet, a strong windstorm is probably inevitable in the next 2-3 weeks in this pattern but something as strong as the GFS is showing will often downgrade. That 484 dm upper low is suspicious. The second storm then gets a late insertion of rapidly dropping 500 mb heights as well, reaching about 492 dm. (note these are heights, not thicknesses). If these two storms get served by 504 dm type support, then they will back off to today's sort of intensities or perhaps a bit stronger but not destructively so.

maquiladora

dacogawa wrote: »

I think with that ECM run the odds have come down a bit Maq

And it was nowhere on the last ECM, next few runs of all the models will be interesting...

Hello storm Frank

Potential is there for one or more stormy episodes alright. But I wouldn't believe any operational runs at this stage.

B17G

Number 7 is also interesting from the 12Z ensembles. Sends a nasty looking feature in over England, while we appear to dodge the bullet.

ninebeanrows

100mph gusts along the NW Donegal coast on the 12z EC

dacogawa

Bit of a downgrade on that run...

maquiladora

18Z again shows a deep low on the 30th, but this time the track keeps it just out to sea from the west coast.

Would still brush the west coast with 140 km/h gusts.

Hooter23

Kind of pointless looking for the exact track this far out...still interesting though that its seems so certain of a very deep depression in and around ireland in a weeks time