FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

squarecircles

Latest from bbc weather saying next week is looking increasingly stormy.

RobertKK

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Read reports from December 1946 here.


http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/46250351

Yeah, my father who was 19 years old at that time, said it was freezing for weeks before the snow came, there was an easterly wind and knowing nothing good comes the east in winter - this was before they had electricity. He spent the time collecting wood everyday and then the snow came...

maquiladora

Not to derail this thread further, but the winter of 46/47 did feature cold spells in Ireland in December. However it was not until the later half of January that the "real" cold began.

The first half of January 47 was mild, wet and windy in Ireland. Dublin Airport recorded double digit temperatures up until the middle of the month. The famous relentless severe cold spell began around Jan 23rd in Ireland.

Anyway...back to that charts that won't happen!

Captain Snow

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Merry Christmas

maquiladora

0Z GFS shows a direct hit. 130-140 km/h gusts inland right over the country.



0Z UKMO evolution looks similar. The tight gradient would also probably pass up over Ireland here a few hours before this.



Happy Christmas!

maquiladora

0Z ECM looks similar at 120 hours. Strong winds would have over or very close to Ireland just before this.



And then it shows a beast approaching us at 168 hours. Isobars packed severely tight.

Gaoth Laidir

Here are the gaps filled in on the ECMWF. I think this is the crescendo of the Atlantic before it retires for January.

maquiladora

06Z GFS again showing very stormy conditions Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Still several days away so not nailed down yet. But potential is there for something quite significant.

B17G

Variant 6 on the latest ensembles generates a low of 915mb but keeps the worst of the winds out to sea.

Gaoth Laidir

Euro ensembles show strong height anomalies over Scandinavia for a while in early Jan but not hanging around for long.

Rock Lesnar

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS again showing very stormy conditions Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Still several days away so not nailed down yet. But potential is there for something quite significant.

Maq, its christmas, take a break from delivering the good news for one day

ninebeanrows

Breezy..

ninebeanrows

And that's before round 2

ninebeanrows

UKM global keeps storm in the Atlantic

maquiladora

Two storms for the price of one on the 12Z GFS.

The first, "weaker" one has inland gusts over 150 kmh...

cyclops999

Maq percentage wise what are your thoughts on forecasted storms happening.

maquiladora

cyclops999 wrote: »

Maq percentage wise what are your thoughts on forecasted storms happening.

Impossible to say. The models aren't in agreement so anything between a severe storm and a regular yellow wind warning is possible.

Edit: GEM and UKMO both keep the out further out in the Atlantic. We'll see what the ECM does but for now the stormy GFS output looks questionable.

munsterlegend

The U.K. Met office have an early warning out so obviously concerned even at this early stage. They did say a lot of uncertainty as to track.

maquiladora

Most of the GEFS members do seem to show impacts from one or two of the lows of various strength. The potential is definitely there but will need to see what the ECM does and then see how it looks again tomorrow. Just too soon to say.

legomaniac

My neighbour who is 89 reckons we are in for a savage storm. He said the still cold dank day in South Donegal will be followed soon by a big wind. I usually don't heed this kind of thing but I'm a little intrigued as the models are suggesting a chance of a storm on Tuesday. Interesting all the same.

maquiladora

ECM is similar but still different to the GFS at 96 hours. It has the first low deeper and further west than on the GFS. It looks like the ECM track would keep the strongest winds offshore whereas the GFS has that right over the country.

Senna

legomaniac wrote: »

My neighbour who is 89 reckons we are in for a savage storm. He said the still cold dank day in South Donegal will be followed soon by a big wind. I usually don't heed this kind of thing but I'm a little intrigued as the models are suggesting a chance of a storm on Tuesday. Interesting all the same.

He's not a retired postman, is he?

ninebeanrows

EC going for an intense storm, but hitting less populated areas.

Would smash NW Ireland with gusts to 150kph

maquiladora

ECM also showing another possible low about to swing up over us on New Years Day, and from a cold perspective, it could be setting up a potential easterly. A lot to keep an eye on.

Captain Snow

post images

Nice ECM 12z 240 chart. All that cold lurking to the east. Great potential Easterly.

maquiladora

Closer look at the ECM on Tuesday. Strong winds brushing the the usual coastal areas but the really strong winds are kept offshore. Not severe at all inland, in complete contrast to the GFS which was showing 150km gusts crossing right up in the country.



Still needs a couple of more runs before we will be sure of the track, but right now I think this track is more likely than the GFS one.

Hooter23

Its amazing just how many of these storms seem to track just off the Mayo coast its like their on a track:pac:

JanuarySnowstor

History tells us these systems curve off to our northwest more often than not.
We seem to get two bites at the cherry though so I would think there's a good chance one will cross the country

Stealthfins

Is this storm bringing cold weather as well ?

Oscar Bravo

Gerry Murphys chart for 11am Tuesday