FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

arctictree

Not as crazy as the 06z but a nice cold spell nonetheless

sryanbruen

Flooding on Christmas Eve? Ah give me a bleedin' break!

Gonzo

if this keeps up could be the wettest December on record in some parts

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

if this keeps up could be the wettest December on record in some parts

Well it's already been the third wettest December on record in Miami :P

Meteorite58

Models indicating a Low Pressure slowly deepening over Ireland the weekend , I wonder could it draw down colder airs from the N and NW giving some wintry conditions early next week. Temperature charts showing some cold day and night temperatures as the week goes on. The jet looks very fractured around the weekend but takes a more NW route into next week.

Gaoth Laidir

The GFS will usually show a colder outbreak than what materialises. The ECM ensembles out to 15 days are still showing seasonal troughing near Iceland/Greenland and a continuation of the mild southwesterly theme.

arctictree

First XMas day chart appearing on the GFS:



This one looks cold with possible undercutting. Will change of course.

maquiladora

Cold with snow showers on the run up to Christmas Day on the 0Z GFS

icesnowfrost

maquiladora wrote: »

Cold with snow showers on the run up to Christmas Day on the 0Z GFS

Wouldn't that be great if it was only 72hrs away

123 LC

We can dream :P

Snowbiee21

123 LC wrote: »

We can dream :P

What's this bringing:(

force eleven

Cannot see any relenting of the Atlantic train at present. Low pressure close to the North. High pressure over Europe. Has been this way for weeks and looks like into early Jan at least. Think I will take a break from FI watching for a week and see what happens.

Captain Snow

GFS and ECM have been very flip floppy lately , to many big swings Artic blasts and mild southerly flows. Seems they are getting to the wrong output faster. This has happened a few times over the years. Each time i noticed this we have had a cold period of weather or a warm distrubed period. Its one or the other coming up over the next few weeks.

Iancar29

Ho-ho-ho

sryanbruen

Iancar29 wrote: »

Ho-ho-ho

So wait.... I'm seeing some similarities here:

2015
*Very strong El Nino
*Wet, windy and dull November
*Christmas Day storm (possible)

1997
*Very strong El Nino
*Wet, windy and dull November
*Christmas Eve storm

weatherfiend

My daughter just told me that the dad of a friend of her's is a meteorologist and he has said that we will have a snow storm two nights before Christmas Eve yayyyyy hope we do

maquiladora

Rock Lesnar

maquiladora wrote: »

No, No more please, i cant take it anymore

sryanbruen

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

No, No more please, i cant take it anymore

True that! WAY TOO MANY STORMS!

New Year's Day
7th January
9th January
12th January
Storm Rachel
23rd February
30th / 31st March
12th November
17th / 18th November
29th November
5th December

Rock Lesnar

sryanbruen wrote: »

True that! WAY TOO MANY STORMS!

New Year's Day
7th January
9th January
12th January
Storm Rachel
23rd February
30th / 31st March
12th November
17th / 18th November
29th November
5th December

I dont mind the wind part of the storm, the home place is beside a huge wood, so a good wind storm was great growing up, its the rain i cant stand, sick to death of water lying around the house

Oneiric 3

The EC mean 850 hPa temp profile out to day 10. Seems to be hinting at an increasingly tight thermal gradient developing in western Atlantic. If it continues this theme, it sure could be a potentially interesting run up to Christmas.

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

The EC mean 850 hPa temp profile out to day 10. Seems to be hinting at an increasingly tight thermal gradient developing in western Atlantic. If it continues this theme, it sure could be a potentially interesting run up to Christmas.

Very similar to Christmas week of 2013?

The two storms of the 23rd and 27th of that year

Gaoth Laidir

Yes the ECMWF shows a 210-kt jet coming off New Foundling later in the week so that is bound to latch onto something and possibly give a storm that is not yet showing up on the models. I notice too a very zonal jet pattern for a while too, which may stir the polar vortex tank a bit give a very brief cold outbreak.

Oneiric 3

sryanbruen wrote: »

Very similar to Christmas week of 2013?

The two storms of the 23rd and 27th of that year

Impossible to say at this point, but looking at the anomaly version of the same chart above, there does look to be a grim potential.

Captain Snow

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

The EC mean 850 hPa temp profile out to day 10. Seems to be hinting at an increasingly tight thermal gradient developing in western Atlantic. If it continues this theme, it sure could be a potentially interesting run up to Christmas.

Then after that a few polar lows embedded in a cold Arctic flow.........:pac:


http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

Still cold Atlantic. Does,nt look to be decreasing.

Captain Snow

click image upload


Or maybe a super low forming off the coast of Norway pulling down Arctic Air....

Captain Snow

forum image hosting


See how this goes?

maquiladora

Bit of a horror show FI chart here for Christmas Day. Atmospheric river...

Iancar29

How did we miss this one? Someone come pick my jaw up off the floor !!

sryanbruen

Iancar29 wrote: »

How did we miss this one? Someone come pick my jaw up off the floor !!

I don't believe this....

Iancar29

This is the FI thread, nothing here should be believable ! lol

teddybones

Iancar29 wrote: »

This is the FI thread, nothing here should be believable ! lol

Would make a nice post Christmas weather event if ya Don't happen to get what you want off Santa.

Gaoth Laidir

teddybones wrote: »

Would make a nice post Christmas weather event if ya Don't happen to get what you want off Santa.

Or a nice Christmas present. Print it off, frame it and give it to someone...

Elmer Blooker

.... a day at the beach with a picnic of turkey sandwiches?



Its almost funny at this stage, after winters 13/14 and 14/15 we thought it couldn't get any worse but it is!!
I would bet my gaff that this winter is going to be dominated by a euro high.

B17G

Comes charging through on the 23rd/24th. Quite a few ensembles seem to be showing a stormy setup 7 to 10 days out.

maquiladora

Guys can we keep this thread for FI charts?

This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

MidMan25

maquiladora wrote: »

Guys can we keep this thread for FI charts?

Are there any worth showing? :pac:

maquiladora

Both 12Z GEM and GFS showing a potential storm on the 23rd, but less developed on this GFS op run. Still impressive to see two models with something similar at that range.




GEM also has another deepening low approaching from the southwest on the 24th at the end of the run.

Lumi

maquiladora wrote: »

Guys can we keep this thread for FI charts?

I've moved a number of Off-Topic posts into the Winter Chat Thread
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI Charts ONLY

Thanks

sryanbruen

B17G wrote: »

Comes charging through on the 23rd/24th. Quite a few ensembles seem to be showing a stormy setup 7 to 10 days out.

Ah here, this is copying 1997 all over!

maquiladora

25th, 26th, 27th.... :mad:

hatrickpatrick

Which eejit was it who predicted a ridiculously stormy winter on account of the record El Nino?
I'm holding them INDIRECTLY responsible for the sh!te it looks like we'll have to put up with.

patneve2

Looking very poor for any prospects of decent cold - arctic oscillation index forecast to hit +5 in just over a week. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

Iancar29

A few runs have been showing HP building up towards Scandi, if it locks into place, things would start to get interesting into the new year!

Elmer Blooker

does it get any more zonal than this - a westerly all the way from Newfoundland to Mongolia. Its not even depressing anymore. its just laughable

maquiladora

Not the first time we've seen hints of stormy conditions around the 22nd.

WheatenBriar

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

does it get any more zonal than this - a westerly all the way from Newfoundland to Mongolia. Its not even depressing anymore. its just laughable

Aye circulating around one of the biggest expanses of polar vortices I've seen in a long time
The jetstream is barrelling into the best area possible (us ) to support those vortices and keep them in there

Iancar29

Polar vortex comes to play on the 12z ... :pac:

cherryghost

It's a sad day when its just a rain belt for the rest of the month and we're looking beyond 2 weeks for signs of cold

Villain

cherryghost wrote: »

It's a sad day when its just a rain belt for the rest of the month and we're looking beyond 2 weeks for signs of cold

Nah it's just Winter in Ireland, but FI only brings us to start of the 2nd Winter month so plenty of FI charts to drool over yet :P