September 2015 Boards forecast contest

pauldry

Claremorris was 1.5c mt but mt dillon was 1c on 0800 report so a reading of 0.something not out of the question

M.T. Cranium

There will be colder mornings if the GFS output verifies, will be surprised if we don't get to at least -2 eventually.

pauldry

Isnt it shockin cold this year


Of course in Winter well be saying isnt it horrid mild this winter

pauldry

0.8c mt dillon

M.T. Cranium

The bonus question results _

MAX 17.4

rain 5.0 mm

Four predictions of temperature were just 0.1 too high, those from Rikand, omicron, sunflower3 and dasa29. JD and lostinashford were 0.2 low at 17.2 -- these six will share five points.

MrSkinner hit the rainfall dead on, the next four closest were waterways (4.0), then Lumi (2.4), johnmac (2.2) and dasa29 (2.0).

Only two forecasts gave higher rainfall totals than what was reported. I will be scoring them somewhat generously using the statistical non-symmetric principle as these higher forecasts show more "skill" than the closer zero forecasts which will all be getting one point.

While MrSkinner had the best absolute combination of temperature and rainfall, in terms of ranked forecasts Dasa29 came closest. These two will get a (super) bonus point for their efforts.

It's worth noting that the rain arrived around 3 p.m. so that the forecasts of a dry day verified for the first 60% of the day.

Check back tomorrow when I will have updates for the other portions of the contest based on week three ending today.

M.T. Cranium

The results are in (almost) for the third week. Mullingar has not yet reported a rainfall for yesterday and so I have estimated that in my calculations. They were up to date on temperatures as were all of the locations.

The IMT has settled in at 12.3 C for the five stations, and 12.6 C for the eleven (we are still going by the five until end of 2015 then we'll decide whether or not to expand the grid). Those values are fairly close to the weekly values (12.2 and 12.4).

Rainfall at the eleven sites (estimating Mullingar to be 120%) was 78% for the week which now leaves the month at 99% of normal. If I can edit this when Mullingar updates, then this may change slightly (up or down 1% for every 11% that my estimate for Mullingar proves incorrect -- I estimated a fairly generous 10 mm there yesterday).

Sunshine at the six stations used averaged only 69% which drops the month back to 78% of normal.

I'm not aware of any new Max or Min (20.3, 0.8).

My estimates for end of the month would be 12.2, 21.0, -2.0, 100, 80. But we'll have an update after four weeks that should be just about the final values.

Joe Public

Can we expect the IMT and sunshine to rise to the end of the month going on the current forecast?

M.T. Cranium

Maybe slightly. The missing rainfall stat for Mullingar came on line at 6.9 mm which is not much different from the estimate hence no changes to the tracking.

The IMT at this point sits at 12.2 ... if the last six days averaged 14 (including today) then the finishing value would be 12.6 deg. Sunshine could probably increase by a maximum of 10-15 per cent from current values near 85%. The upper limit for that might be a recovery to normal values.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT for the contest five stations is now 12.2 C after a week at 11.9 C. For the eleven precip stations that include those five, the mean is now 12.5 C after a week of 12.1 C. These values could drift up 0.1 as the don't need much when rounding is taken into account. The days (29-30) are warm enough but some of the stations have had coldish nights.

MAX and MIN have not been changed yet, although I have not seen MIN values for today yet. For yesterday, 1.1 C at Mountdillon was not quite as cold as the 0.8 earlier.

PRC has fallen to 76% as this past week managed a mere 11% of normal. Pretty certain that 29th-30th will log zero, so that will fall a bit further to 71%. Rather strange isn't it, after such heavy rainfalls earlier in the west, but that's precip forecasting for you.

SUN has managed to reach 99% after this past week logged in at 140%. If the last two days follow suit (we already know that the 29th was fairly sunny overall) then the final value will be about 102%.

I may be able to post provisional scoring with the confirmed scoring available by Friday 2nd.

rameire

in case anybody else forgot like me.
here is octobers link
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057500339

M.T. Cranium

Here's the final damages for September ...

IMT was 12.2 C (for the eleven stations used for precip, 12.5 C). The contest value will be 12.2.

MAX was 20.3 and MIN was 0.8 as already reported.

PRC turned out to be 74% of normal. In the report for week four above, I made a couple of slight errors on PRC and SUN which mean that the report should have said we were at 77% not 76, and the dry end brought us down to 74 rather than my estimate. No big deal there but that's why the numbers are slightly different.

SUN finished at 95% of normal. Stations averaged between 85 and 105 per cent of normal with the east being sunnier. Here again, I think I took the wrong baseline from week three into week four, that should have read "SUN has moved up to 93% etc" and the sunnier last two days finished things off at 95%.

BONUS was already reported above to be 17.4 C and 5.0 mm.

Scores will follow within the hour, I hope.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for September 2015

FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN ___ BONUS _____ TOTALS

Rameire ___________17 _ 18*_ 16*_ 14 _ 10 ____ 02 _ 02 _______ 79
200motels _________ 17 _ 20 _ 12*_ 10 _ 07 ____ 04 _ 01 _______ 71
mickger844posts ____16 _ 19*_ 11*_ 12 _ 07 ____ 03 _ 01 _______ 69
omicron ___________17 _ 14*_ 15*_ 08 _ 08 ____ 05 _ 01 _______ 68
DOCARCH _________ 19 _ 16*_ 12*_ 09 _ 08 ____ 03 _ 01 _______ 68
pauldry ___________ 19 _ 08*_ 13*_ 13 _ 07 ____ 03 _ 04 _______ 67
lostinashford _______ 24 _ 06*_ 12*_ 08 _ 07 ____ 05 _ 04 _______ 66
dasa29 ____________23 _ 05*_ 11*_ 05 _ 09 ____ 05 _ 05 +1 ____ 64
Sunflower3 ________ 21 _ 10*_ 11*_ 10 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _______ 63
Tae laidir __________ 22 _ 10*_ 04*_ 14 _ 06 ____ 01 _ 04 _______ 61
Bsal ______________ 16 _ 11*_ 14*_ 08 _ 08 ____ 01 _ 03 _______ 61

Con Sensus ________ 17 _ 08*_ 11*_ 10 _ 07 ____ 04 _ 03 _______ 60

M.T. Cranium _______22 _ 13*_ 01*_ 09 _ 09 ____ 01 _ 04 _______ 59
Lumi ______________16 _ 15*_ 03*_ 10 _ 07 ____ 02 _ 05 _______ 58
MrSkinner__________12 _ 02*_ 18*_ 10 _ 05 ____ 04 _ 05 +1 _____57
Harps _____________16 _ 04*_ 09*_ 15 _ 05 ____ 04 _ 04 _______ 57
Rikand ____________ 17 _ 11*_ 08*_ 10 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _______ 57
waterways _________ 16 _ 08*_ 06*_ 12 _ 05 ____ 00 _ 05 _______ 52
Jpmarn____________ 09 _ 01*_ 18*_ 15 _ 04 ____ 03 _ 02 _______ 52
Schadenfreudia _____ 18 _ 06*_ 09*_ 06 _ 09 ____ 03 _ 01 _______ 52
john mac __________ 17 _ 06*_ 08*_ 07 _ 07 ____ 02 _ 05 _______ 52
Dacogawa _________ 13 _ 08*_ 13*_ 05 _ 05 ____ 00 _ 02 _______ 46
JD _______________ 14 _ 02*_ 07*_ 08 _ 07 ____ 05 _ 01 _______ 44
Joe Public __________18 _ 04*_ 02*_ 11 _ 03 ____ 04 _ 01 _______ 43
_____________________________________________________________

* minimum progression rule applied to most scores in MAX and MIN

Congrats to Rameire, 200motels and mickger844posts for their high scores this month. Overall, a rather even month for scoring as many of us kept pace with Con Sensus. We will see how this leaves the annual race in a while, watch for that.

===================================================

M.T. Cranium

Updated annual 2015 scoring January to September


FORECASTER _________ Jan_ Feb_Mar_ Apr_ May_Jun_ Jul_ Aug_Sep ____ 2015 Total (rank) __ best 8/9 (rank)

M.T. Cranium __________68 _ 17 _ 71 _ 86 _ 62 _ 70 _ 46 _ 61 _ 59 __ 540 (7) ______ 523 (1)
Lumi _________________68 _ 72 _ 59 _ 66 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 78 _ 58 __ 573 (1) ______ 520 (2)
Jpmarn _______________64 _ 57 _ 71 _ 78 _ 82 _ 67 _ 44 _ 48 _ 52 __ 563 (2) ______ 519 (3)

Con Sensus ___________ 70 _ 71 _ 63 _ 65 _ 58 _ 62 _ 55 _ 69 _ 60 __ 573 (1) ______ 518 (4)

MrSkinner _____________--- _ 71 _ 85 _ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 61 _ 78 _ 57 __ 512 (14) _____ 512 (4)
dasa29 _______________ 47 _ 69 _ 67 _ 45 _ 57 _ 57 _ 70 _ 76 _ 64 __ 552 (3) ______ 505 (5)
Rikand _______________ 84 _ 59 _ 48 _ 73 _ 54 _ 66 _ 51 _ 57 _ 57 __ 549 (4) ______ 501 (6t)
sunflower3 ____________ 69 _ 61 _ 59 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 54 _ 72 _ 63 __ 545 (5) ______ 501 (6t)
Bsal _________________ 77 _ 55 _ 68 _ 50 _ 57 _ 71 _ 48 _ 55 _ 61 __ 542 (6) ______ 494 (8)
mickger844posts _______ 50 _ 90 _ 53 _ 61 _ 45 _ 57 _ 28 _ 67 _ 69 __ 520 (13) _____ 492 (9)
Tae laidir _____________ 33 _ 60 _ 46 _ 68 _ 68 _ 56 _ 74 _ 60 _ 61 __ 526 (10) _____ 493 (10)
rameire ______________ 55 _ 40 _ 46 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 56 _ 79 _ 79 __ 527 (9) ______ 487 (11)
Pauldry _______________51 _ 48 _ 70 _ 51 _ 67 _ 61 _ 58 _ 60 _ 67 __ 533 (8) ______ 485 (12t)
DOCARCH _____________75 _ 79 _ 40 _ 64 _ 36 _ 65 _ 42 _ 52 _ 68 __ 521 (12) _____ 485 (12t)
lostinashford __________ 56 _ --- _ 53 _ 64 _ 74 _ 62 _ 55 _ 52 _ 66 __ 482 (19) _____ 482 (14)
Harps ________________ 69 _ 57 _ 34 _ 70 _ 45 _ 70 _ 45 _ 61 _ 57 __ 508 (15) _____ 474 (15)
John mac _____________ 73 _ 55 _ 58 _ 60 _ 50 _ 50 _ 69 _ 55 _ 52 __ 522 (11) _____ 472 (16)
jd ___________________ 72 _ 61 _ 68 _ 62 _ 31 _ 50 _ 53 _ 59 _ 44 __ 500 (16t) ____ 469 (17)
Schadenfreudia _________61 _ 67 _ 53 _ 60 _ 58 _ 36 _ 38 _ 75 _ 52 __ 500 (16t) ____ 464 (18)
dacogawa _____________ 48 _ 62 _ 63 _ 77 _ 58 _ --- _ 62 _ 43 _ 46 __ 459 (21) ____ 459 (19)
Joe Public _____________ 69 _ 42 _ 64 _ 72 _ 39 _ 54 _ 69 _ 44 _ 43 __ 496 (18) ____ 457 (20)
kindredspirit ___________ 63 _ 57 _ 52 _ 59 _ 47 _ 60 _ 61 _ 56 _ --- __ 455 (22) ____ 455 (21)
omicron _______________41 _ 77 _ 40 _ 67 _ 49 _ 36 _ 42 _ 55 _ 68 __ 475 (20) ____ 439 (22)
waterways _____________--- _ 70 _ 58 _ 58 _ 40 _ 53 _ 32 _ 63 _ 52 __ 426 (23) ____ 426 (23)
200motels _____________30 _ --- _ 59 _ 65 _ 58 _ 40 _ 35 _ 49 _ 71 __ 407 (24) ____ 407 (24)

see August table for entrants with fewer scores.
__________________________________________________________

The annual race is slowly getting tighter, as the pack gains a bit on the three leaders.

High monthly scores are shown in bold type above.

Next month I will adjust the main scoring column to best 8 of 10 as we close in on the final portion of the year.