Dublin Airport New Routes 2016

Jamie2k9

sandbelter wrote: »

Given Dublin's growth run rate is currently growing at 17% (38% transatlantic) and EI is increasing capacity by 9% (17% transatlantic) it implies that EI's market share is falling.

Much of our focus has been on long haul, but I've seen press reports that FR is delivering 70% of the growth at DUB (Anna Aero, 3 Feb 16)

So, does anyone what's happening EI short haul and any further news on European routes and frequencies? Apart from the announced increase in winter sun routes to the Iberian peninsula, is there any shorter term strategies in place at EI to arrest their decline in market share? (seasonal European routes to go year round, use of BA Cityflyer as a stopgap, maybe more A320?

FR are very creative with figures, they would have you believe that every single extra passenger they deliver are a tourist and not a single increase ex Ireland like the CSO shows.

EI are still largest by capacity this summer at DUB. EI are not the type who care about FR taking no 1 spot.

Tenger

sandbelter wrote: »

Given Dublin's growth run rate is currently growing at 17% (38% transatlantic) and EI is increasing capacity by 9% (17% transatlantic) it implies that EI's market share is falling. ......
So, does anyone what's happening EI short haul and any further news on European routes and frequencies? Apart from the announced increase in winter sun routes to the Iberian peninsula, is there any shorter term strategies in place at EI to arrest their decline in market share?...

Dont really know to be honest.
The only change from S15 to S16 for the EI fleet was the replacement of the 4 A319's in DUB with A320 from Little Red. So that is an slight increase in capacity. But there is no actual increase in fleet numbers for EI. I'm not sure if there will be any additional deployment of the A330 across shorthaul routes this summer (FAO I think is happened 2x weekly) And at the moment there is no increase in shorthaul fleet expected within 2-3 years.

The sudden influx of aircraft into the FR fleet allows them to add capacity, and thus increase market share at DUB. EI cant just turn on the tap and get more aircraft without leasing in costly 3rd party aircraft. This would be prohibitively expensive merely to "arrest their decline in market share"

As long as EI can maintain their load factors on their existing routes and keep their margins stable they dont need to worry about market share for now.

L1011

There's been an increase, small as it may be, in the ATR fleet which will release some 320 capacity back though.

pclive

There will be a small increase in capacity with the Embraer 190s:

https://www.aerlingus.com/travel-information/aer-lingus-news/embraer190-features-benefits/

goingnowhere

Plus EI have a 4th 757 coming soon and 2 A330-300's due mid/late Summer

L1011

goingnowhere wrote: »

Plus EI have a 4th 757 coming soon and 2 A330-300's due mid/late Summer

It was shorthaul capacity and the lack of increase we were discussing though :pac:

L1011

L1011 wrote: »

It was shorthaul capacity and the lack of increase we were discussing though :pac:

There's talk of either Stobart being asked to get small regional jets or a link up with CityJet. Passengers aren't happy with the amount of bags being left behind on the ATR's regularly.

Locker10a

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There's talk of either Stobart being asked to get small regional jets or a link up with CityJet. Passengers aren't happy with the amount of bags being left behind on the ATR's regularly.

Really? I didn't realise that was an issue, that's not great then especially if it involves connecting pax!

On another note, but regarding extra capacity, I'm surprised EI still base only the 1 A320 at SNN, I'm surprised they haven't got Air Contractors to supply an aircraft to operate the SNN/LHR a la JFK and BOS!
It doesn't make much sense to me to just keep 1 aircraft as a base, it could be added to DUB or ORK.
Before anyone shoots me down I'm not at all suggesting SNN-LHR should be scrapped, nor am I suggesting they should close the crew base at SNN, that could all remain just on an ASL aircraft

LXFlyer

What has any of this to do with Dublin Airport new routes?

Locker10a

lxflyer wrote: »

What has any of this to do with Dublin Airport new routes?

It began as part of the discussion about expansion of connecting traffic through DUB, specifically regarding EI regional to EI transatlantic flights and the issue of luggage created as a result of such connections

LXFlyer

Locker10a wrote: »

It began as part of the discussion about expansion of connecting traffic through DUB, specifically regarding EI regional to EI transatlantic flights and the issue of luggage created as a result of such connections

I know that - I was trying to make a subtle point - the thread is way off topic!

Growler!!!

lxflyer wrote: »

I know that - I was trying to make a subtle point - the thread is way off topic!

No point being subtle. Report the posts to the mods. They'll sort out the rest.

Now that Norwegian has got tentative approval hopefully we see movement on their plans to base 787's and 737's in Dublin.

Locker10a

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Now that Norwegian has got tentative approval hopefully we see movement on their plans to base 787's and 737's in Dublin.

Could you remind us of these plans? I don't recall ever reading about them setting up a base in DUB, FR won't like that, nor will EI if they plan 787s too....

billie1b

Locker10a wrote: »

Could you remind us of these plans? I don't recall ever reading about them setting up a base in DUB, FR won't like that, nor will EI if they plan 787s too....

Their plan was to set up low cost long haul out if DUB on their 787's

Avada

billie1b wrote: »

Their plan was to set up low cost long haul out if DUB on their 787's

IIRC the plan was to base the company in Ireland (which it is) to get around Norwegian labour laws, not base the actual aircraft here.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/norwegian-air-boss-rejects-criticism-over-budget-airline-plan-1.2008678

Jamie2k9

Avada wrote: »

IIRC the plan was to base the company in Ireland (which it is) to get around Norwegian labour laws, not base the actual aircraft here.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/norwegian-air-boss-rejects-criticism-over-budget-airline-plan-1.2008678

aircraft were/are planned also.

EchoIndia

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

aircraft were/are planned also.

Nothing in that article to say that.

Locker10a

EchoIndia wrote: »

Nothing in that article to say that.

I see no benefit to them basing aircraft in DUB, they would struggle against FR on any European expansion they set up, FR wouldn't allow them even a week without crushing them, and to do long haul stuff they don't need to base an aircraft, they have enough foreign based crew to operate flights into DUB from one of their US/ Asian bases

Jamie2k9

EchoIndia wrote: »

Nothing in that article to say that.

They have previously expressed an interest on operating some long haul ops ex DUB, now I'm not sure if that went public or just to the daa.

I see no benefit to them basing aircraft in DUB, they would struggle against FR on any European expansion they set up, FR wouldn't allow them even a week without crushing them, and to do long haul stuff they don't need to base an aircraft, they have enough foreign based crew to operate flights into DUB from one of their US/ Asian bases

They might however at the time I would not of expected Vueling or Transavia. Now they tried by dumping capacity but both carriers have increased there presence here since ops started.

Overall EI would be the biggest losers.

vonbarracuda

Any case for Norwegian 787 DUB to LAS☺️

Rawr

billie1b wrote: »

Their plan was to set up low cost long haul out if DUB on their 787's

Ooooo...maybe they would then sometimes use 787s on the OSL - DUB route. Coming home to Ireland on holiday would be a nicer experience

(Their 737-800s currently used are nice, but a 787 would be nicer!)

Rawr

vonbarracuda wrote: »

Any case for Norwegian 787 DUB to LAS☺️

They recently launched OSL - LAS. So maybe?

Locker10a

Locker10a wrote: »

I see no benefit to them basing aircraft in DUB, they would struggle against FR on any European expansion they set up, FR wouldn't allow them even a week without crushing them, and to do long haul stuff they don't need to base an aircraft, they have enough foreign based crew to operate flights into DUB from one of their US/ Asian bases

I take it you haven't read or heard about the link up and possible merger of Ryanair and Norwegian then. They've been sweet talking and taking each other out for candle lit dinners for the last 6 months or so with a merger being talked about for 2-3 years time. Word on the street is that Ryanair wants them for their long haul business ETOPs and 787's ready to go.

Jamie2k9

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

They have previously expressed an interest on operating some long haul ops ex DUB, now I'm not sure if that went public or just to the daa.

Yes 2x 787's based to initially service JFK and BOS to compete directly with EI. A pack of 737's to feed them as well.

Locker10a

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I take it you haven't read or heard about the link up and possible merger of Ryanair and Norwegian then. They've been sweet talking and taking each other out for candle lit dinners for the last 6 months or so with a merger being talked about for 2-3 years time. Word on the street is that Ryanair wants them for their long haul business ETOPs and 787's ready to go.

I've not heard this! Combined they would be create a mega European airline, kind of scary if it happened!

Tenger

Just gate checked a lot of posts about cabin baggage. We dont mind a little diversion but lets mostly try to stick to routes ex DUB please.

IQO

Blut2 wrote: »

The recent American changes to the VWP program that prohibits anyone who travels to Iran for applying to the VWP program for 5 years afterwards would be a major road block for this.

I was recently looking into a trip to Iran but cancelled it due to this; I didn't fancy having to go to the US embassy to attend an interview the next time I went to America. I would imagine a lot of leisure travelers (and possibly connecting passengers - depending on how they would be classified by the Americans) would be influenced in a similar way.

Don't think there will be enough demand to justify a direct DUB to IKA route.

Concerning the new VWP program rules; I went in 2014 for 2 weeks to Iran, and now still have the Iranian visa in my passport. Since then I went twice to the US with a valid ESTA, and planning to go again in June. Because of the new rules I went last week to the US embassy to get a US visa - the interview was actually pretty quick (5 minutes, I said I came because of the Iranian visa in my passport and that I traveled many times before to the US. Printed all kinds of documentation (travel plans in the US, financial credibility, insurance etc) but after the guy doing the interview didn't even want to see it or even keep the docs). One day later I got an email that I'll get the US visa.

dogcat wrote: »

Hmm, interesting point actually. Would leisure travellers try to circumvent this ban by using a different passport (I don't know if that would work), or would they even know of the ban?

I thought about this too but if there would be one slight chance the US would know about my Iran trip (f.e. made a note during previous US visits) and would deny a new ESTA because of lying, biggest risk would be that they would ban me from entering the US completely (for some time), better pay that 150 euro.

sandbelter

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Overall EI would be the biggest losers.

Not necessarily, I'm not sure they would be, Air New Zealand is an example of national brand combined with a legacy carrier that has done very well at pushing back and containing low cost carriers. It has many of the attributes of EI including a competitive cost base. Probably their strongest attribute has been innovation on the revenue line and a willingness to take a calculated risk both short haul and long haul.

That said I think the prospect of Norwegian doing DUB-FLL has probably ensured the next US route out of DUB is likely to be MIA.

Jamie2k9

sandbelter wrote: »

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Overall EI would be the biggest losers.

Not necessarily, I'm not sure they would be, Air New Zealand is an example of national brand combined with a legacy carrier that has done very well at pushing back and containing low cost carriers. It has many of the attributes of EI including a competitive cost base. Probably their strongest attribute has been innovation on the revenue line and a willingness to take a calculated risk both short haul and long haul.

That said I think the prospect of Norwegian doing DUB-FLL has probably ensured the next US route out of DUB is likely to be MIA.

EI are not a carrier to respond to competition like that. MIA will happen if the sums add up.