Russian boots on the ground in Syria. Another Afghanistan?

BoJack Horseman

And another image of civi-grade GPS helping the new empire do their thing.



Apparently the Garmin-152 is from 2002..... tried & true.

Gatling

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

And another image of civi-grade GPS helping the new empire do their thing.



Apparently the Garmin-152 is from 2002..... tried & true.

Can only imagine what's duct taped inside there smart bombs or cruise missles.

BoJack Horseman

Gatling wrote: »

Can only imagine what's duct taped inside there smart bombs or cruise missles.

Whatever is cheapest.

It's easy to mock Russia's remaining decrepit equipment.... but afaik this plane is the last one not to have a properly integrated GPS system.

Still mortifying though.

InTheTrees

Shurimgreat wrote: »

Slightly worrying.

Oh my god...

:eek:

InTheTrees

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

It's easy to mock Russia's remaining decrepit equipment....

Its more than that...

Its that apart from oil and cheap military equipment what does russia actually produce?

Its that russia still cant even come up with its own consumer electronics, they have to buy off the shelf american gps.

Remember the cold war saying "as reliable as a russian watch"?

glued

IrishTrajan wrote: »

Does Turkey have an oil/gas reserve like the EU? Iran may be willing to plough a few million barrels of oil into Turkey at reduced prices to gain market share (as they are expected to do in Asia once sanctions are lifted), or Turkey may invest in Kurdish (Iraqi Kurdistan - who they are largely amicable with, not the Syrian Kurds) oil?

Turkey has small oil and gas reserves and imports about 93~% of it's oil and gas. I think they can supply about 9% of their oil currently. Turkey has largely benefited from being a energy hub between Russia and Europe but milking the lines aren't enough to supply Turkey with it's huge energy demand. Turkey has experienced a significantly high growth in energy demand which they have been unable to meet. Iran has already been supplying Turkey with oil; much to the angst of the US.

If both countries are in as tough a position as we think, then that's just more of an argument in favour that no escalation need occur.

Also, regarding the highlighted part, do you have any reading material? As I understand it, the Turkish are trying to fund oil projects in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan (the Azeri oil is supposed to flow mid 2018?).

The Turkish aren't financing these projects. Private energy companies fund about 97% of these projects with the remainder being supplied by private Turkish companies.

Didn't the French, Japanese and Brazilian carry out surveys/feasibility studies regarding nuclear power plants in Saudi Arabia a few months ago? Surely someone would be willing to build this nuclear plant (I chose France because they are practically the go-to country for nuclear power in Europe, even the Brits contract them to help build plants).

Oh, I have no doubt that another nation could build a power plant. It's the lack of financing from the Turkish side that has put off many bidders. French and Japanese power plants would be of a higher spec than Russian ones but would cost more to build. I doubt anyone even bothered to compete against Russia's bid considering what happened with Ilisu Dam and the lack of funding from Turkey to properly finance and maintain these projects.

A lot of private Russian investors stand to make a lot of money at the expense of Turkey's energy crisis. That might be the reason why Putin may not escalate against Turkey.

I'll try to locate some reading material later on.

glued

Gatling wrote: »

That's the problem,

The UN won't be allowed unless they change how they do business and get rid of vetoes ,

Nato possibly could if they wanted they would have no opposition outside of the Russians,

For instance turkey ,iraq and Isreal all border syria and a large combined modern airforce they could set a several hundred mile excursion zone close to each of their respective borders ,
But it would take a fairly large diplomatic effort for anyone to get involved,

It's not feasible as Turkey and the US can't even agree on a 50*90 KM no fly zone between Mare and Jerablus as Turkey wanted a buffer zone to stop the Syrian Kurds advancing. Israel also have no ambition of getting involved fully in Syria. Never mind the fact that the US won't commit boots on the ground. Russian involvement in Syria was probably the final nail in the coffin for any prospect of a no-fly zone.

donaghs

Gatling wrote: »

Doubt it might have to wait to see what happens in Ukraine for the next while at least ,

If they had any sense they should impose no fly zones from Iraq ,Turkey and Isreal .

Why would you impose a no fly zone? ISIL are the main problem and they don't have planes. Air power was crucial in helping the Kurds defeat them in recent battles.

Also, the Russians are the only people flying in Syria who actually have permission from the Syrian government.

Elmer Blooker

InTheTrees wrote: »

Its more than that...

Its that apart from oil and cheap military equipment what does russia actually produce?

Its that russia still cant even come up with its own consumer electronics, they have to buy off the shelf american gps.

Remember the cold war saying "as reliable as a russian watch"?

Really? You shouldn't let your prejudiced, Russophobic views get in the way of facts .... and that goes for the other usual suspects who contribute to this thread!
http://defensetech.org/2015/06/26/pentagon-will-rely-on-russian-rocket-engines-for-years/
Next time I see the International Space Station shoot across the sky at 27,000kph I'll remember its all held together with duct tape!

InTheTrees

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Next time I see the International Space Station shoot across the sky at 27,000kph I'll remember its all held together with duct tape!

I'd hardly call the ISS "consumer electronics"!

:eek:

ancapailldorcha

InTheTrees wrote: »

I'd hardly call the ISS "consumer electronics"!

:eek:

Please try and make a more substantial contribution to the debate than this.

Dannyboy83

glued wrote: »

No, really, you don't get it as evidenced by your cheerleading for the Turks. The map you provided is nothing but absolute rubbish.

Russia could easily escalate against Turkey. You're losing the run of yourself here. The anti-Russian rhetoric in here is getting worse by the day.

No, they really couldn't and they know it, which is why Putin's spokesman said there will be no military retaliation yesterday...The dear leader blinked.

Nato aside, Turkey has strong air forces and air defences and large scale ground operations are out of the question for Russia.
Russia is not capable of projecting power in the region - the only reason they are allowed to operate here at is due to the acquiesence of the other powers. If the US or Turkey resolve to remove Russia from the equation, they can make the entire operation quite unsustaibable for Russia. Quickly. With their supply lines cut, the best they could hope for is to be allowed to evacuate peacefully.
And even with the limited operations, it's placing a severe burden on their finances, with even Kudrin saying they are in serious trouble (publicly)

Russian tourism in Turkey has collapsed over the past 18 months, but the past 7 especially. Russia's second largest airlines recently collapsed and the Ruble is worth in 2015, only half of what it was worth in 2014. Not much leverage for economic sanctions here.
Russian trade accounts for less than 4% of Turkish foreign trade and Turkey has essentially blocked the Turkish Stream gas line already.

Russia is burning through 2/3rds of currency reserves if all goes better than expected financially next year.
Russia is terrified of the Qatar/Greek/Balkan gas line.
Turkey can shut down the Bosphorus meaning the Russian supply line collapses unless they can work out a very expensive alternative. (not ideal when a batallion of Russian Marines just began ground operations in Syria)
Russia spent most of her long range naval cruise missiles already.
Russia needs Turkey more than Turkey needs Russia - now - due to their listless economy - and in the future, when Iranian oil will really start to hurt Russia where it hurts Russia most. (although I believe the Russian Federation won't last that long anyway)

p.p.s.
It's not anti-Russian rhetoric, it's anti-totalitarian. (I assume you have heard of the 'stabbed in the back myth' before...)

glued

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

No, they really couldn't and they know it, which is why Putin's spokesman said there will be no military retaliation yesterday...The dear leader blinked.

Nato aside, Turkey has strong air forces and air defences and large scale ground operations are out of the question for Russia.
Russia is not capable of projecting power in the region - the only reason they are allowed to operate here at is due to the acquiesence of the other powers. If the US or Turkey resolve to remove Russia from the equation, they can make the entire operation quite unsustaibable for Russia. Quickly. With their supply lines cut, the best they could hope for is to be allowed to evacuate peacefully.
And even with the limited operations, it's placing a severe burden on their finances, with even Kudrin saying they are in serious trouble (publicly)

Russian tourism in Turkey has collapsed over the past 18 months, but the past 7 especially. Russia's second largest airlines recently collapsed and the Ruble is worth in 2015, only half of what it was worth in 2014. Not much leverage for economic sanctions here.
Russian trade accounts for less than 4% of Turkish foreign trade and Turkey has essentially blocked the Turkish Stream gas line already.

Russia is burning through 2/3rds of currency reserves if all goes better than expected financially next year.
Russia is terrified of the Qatar/Greek/Balkan gas line.
Turkey can shut down the Bosphorus meaning the Russian supply line collapses unless they can work out a very expensive alternative. (not ideal when a batallion of Russian Marines just began ground operations in Syria)
Russia spent most of her long range naval cruise missiles already.
Russia needs Turkey more than Turkey needs Russia - now - due to their listless economy - and in the future, when Iranian oil will really start to hurt Russia where it hurts Russia most. (although I believe the Russian Federation won't last that long anyway)

p.p.s.
It's not anti-Russian rhetoric, it's anti-totalitarian. (I assume you have heard of the 'stabbed in the back myth' before...)

That's not true at all. You're completely oversimplifying the situation. Russia does not need Turkey as much as you claim and I've explained why on the previous page. Both countries need each other at the minute. This cheerleading of the Turks is getting a bit embarrassing, a bit like the map you provided.

It's hard to take anyone seriously when they're providing misleading information to back up their points.

P.s. If you're not anti-Russian then I have no explanation as to why you're using misleading information to back up your negative viewpoint of Russia. Bizarre to say the least.

glued

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

No, they really couldn't and they know it, which is why Putin's spokesman said there will be no military retaliation yesterday...The dear leader blinked.

Why would Putin react militarily? He's not stupid. It makes zero sense for Russia to attack Turkey, as doing so would impair their objectives in Syria

Nato aside, Turkey has strong air forces and air defences and large scale ground operations are out of the question for Russia.
Russia is not capable of projecting power in the region - the only reason they are allowed to operate here at is due to the acquiesence of the other powers. If the US or Turkey resolve to remove Russia from the equation, they can make the entire operation quite unsustaibable for Russia. Quickly. With their supply lines cut, the best they could hope for is to be allowed to evacuate peacefully.
And even with the limited operations, it's placing a severe burden on their finances, with even Kudrin saying they are in serious trouble (publicly)

This is nothing but pure bluster. Firstly, your point about power and influence makes no sense. Turkey could not remove the Russian's on their own and suggesting they can is delirious. Supply lines cut? Turkey have very little leverage and they certainly cannot afford to escalate. You're making absurd statements with very little relevance to the topic on hand.

Russian tourism in Turkey has collapsed over the past 18 months, but the past 7 especially. Russia's second largest airlines recently collapsed and the Ruble is worth in 2015, only half of what it was worth in 2014. Not much leverage for economic sanctions here.
Russian trade accounts for less than 4% of Turkish foreign trade and Turkey has essentially blocked the Turkish Stream gas line already.

You do realise Russian tourism in Turkey has a negative impact on the Turkish Economy? I'm not sure what exactly you're trying to prove by making that statement, again, with no relevance to the topic on hand. Turkey relies on Russia for energy and the Turkish have been pleading with Gazprom to supply them with more gas as Turkey desperately struggles to meet its energy needs. Gazprom rejected a request from Turkey to supply an additional 3bcm of Gas. If you're trying to paint a picture that Turkey has the upper hand, either politically or financially, you're not being honest.

Russia is burning through 2/3rds of currency reserves if all goes better than expected financially next year.
Russia is terrified of the Qatar/Greek/Balkan gas line.
Turkey can shut down the Bosphorus meaning the Russian supply line collapses unless they can work out a very expensive alternative. (not ideal when a batallion of Russian Marines just began ground operations in Syria)
Russia spent most of her long range naval cruise missiles already.
Russia needs Turkey more than Turkey needs Russia - now - due to their listless economy - and in the future, when Iranian oil will really start to hurt Russia where it hurts Russia most. (although I believe the Russian Federation won't last that long anyway)

The Russian economy, despite the sanctions, is in better shape the Turkish economy. I'm not sure why you're, again, misleading people with false information. Both countries are struggling. Turkey has a major energy problem and the Russian economy is floundering under sanctions yet the Russians still have a higher GDP than Turkey. Neither country can afford to go to war with each other. Turkey are struggling so badly for energy they've been supporting ISIS by buying oil from them. The rest of your point about Russian gas is nothing but a lie. There is a plethora of projects being proposed about pipelines, particularly in the Middle East. Most of these projects never get built and are always a major overreaction to Russian/Saudi/Qatari etc. price increases.

As for the collapse of the Russian Federation? What a preposterous assumption.

Dannyboy83

glued wrote: »

Why would Putin react militarily? He's not stupid. It makes zero sense for Russia to attack Turkey, as doing so would impair their objectives in Syria

As I said - the dear leader blinked.:)

Putin is like the bully who was enjoying pushing the quiet kids around, but then he started picking on the wrong kid - he didn't realise Erdogan is actually fairly fcuking unhinged, LOL!

Turkey could not remove the Russian's on their own and suggesting they can is delirious.

Why?
Elaborate.:)

Supply lines cut? Turkey have very little leverage and they certainly cannot afford to escalate. You're making absurd statements with very little relevance to the topic on hand.

How are Russian supply lines in Syria not have relevant to this topic?
Explain.

You do realise Russian tourism in Turkey has a negative impact on the Turkish Economy?

*facepalm*

As for the collapse of the Russian Federation? What a preposterous assumption.

A report issued by Moscow's Higher School of Economics (HSE) in May found that 20 of Russia's 83 regions may be technically in default already.

40 of Russia’s 83 regions — excluding Crimea and Sevastopol — have debt exceeding 60% of their revenues, and 10 are nearing 100%

Collapse of the Soviet Union was a preposterous assumption too, once upon a time...

Lockstep

Turkey isn't a pushover which is a large factor in why Russia hasn't escalated anything: even leaving aside NATO, Turkey is one of the world's most powerful militaries and Russia isn't capable of using force against it without getting dragged into a bloody war of attrition.

Likewise, given Russia's weak economy, it doesn't have much leverage for economic force. Even on energy, both are quite interdependent so it's unlikely either will do anything.

glued

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

As I said - the dear leader blinked.:)

Putin is like the bully who was enjoying pushing the quiet kids around, but then he started picking on the wrong kid - he didn't realise Erdogan is actually fairly fcuking unhinged, LOL!


Why?
Elaborate.:)



How are Russian supply lines in Syria not have relevant to this topic?
Explain.



*facepalm*





Collapse of the Soviet Union was a preposterous assumption too, once upon a time...

Are you for real? You want me to elaborate on a preposterous assumption that you made? As for the collapse of the Russian Federation; that is nothing but wishful thinking.

Seriously, it's becoming impossible to post in this thread with people constantly posting misleading information and maps. It's Nazi schoolbook stuff at times.

cerastes

It's fairly hostile given turkeys own experience and record with crossing borders in their own aircraft, maybe the Russians will move up some aams for similar violations of uninvited air forces?

Dannyboy83

glued wrote: »

Are you for real? You want me to elaborate on a preposterous assumption that you made? As for the collapse of the Russian Federation; that is nothing but wishful thinking.

Seriously, it's becoming impossible to post in this thread with people constantly posting misleading information and maps. It's Nazi schoolbook stuff at times.

No I want you to elaborate on the statements which you made.

Here, I will post them again for you:

glued wrote:

1. Turkey could not remove the Russian's on their own and suggesting they can is delirious.

2. Russian supply lines in Syria are not relevant to this topic.

3. Russian tourism in Turkey has a negative impact on the Turkish Economy

Elaborate.

glued

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

No I want you to elaborate on the statements which you made.

Here, I will post them again for you:



Elaborate.

You really don't get it. You don't get to make points without a shred of evidence and proof and then when someone counters them you ask for proof. You're the one making the original argument so you provide proof and elaborate on your points.

If you can't see how falling Russian tourism would negatively impact Turkey's economy then I don't really know what to say.

When you provide proof and elaborate on your points then I will come back to you.

Let's not forget youposted a grossly misleading map to back up your point so I won't hold out much hope.

K-9

Glued calm it down please.

We're reaching an impasse here and calling everybody anti-Russian and saying they are misleading people and just that, isn't helping. We'd tell the other side to knock it off if they were just mud slinging and name calling.

If somebody is posting what you say is misleading info, correct them by posting links and then you can refer them to those to prove your point. The charter for politics allows for people to have opinions, even incorrect ones, the way to debate this is by correcting them and showing how their information is wrong.

People can't keep pointing out others are purposely misleading others without proof, otherwise the thread becomes a train wreck.

JJJJNR

S-400s have been deployed to Syria, absolute game changer, what were Turkey thinking taking down that plane, Russia have just secured air supremacy for the entire area in one move.

DFGrange

JJJJNR wrote: »

S-400s have been deployed to Syria, absolute game changer, what were Turkey thinking taking down that plane, Russia have just secured air supremacy for the entire area in one move.

It's game changer for Russian commitment to the theatre, the S400 is a precious piece of Russian tech, not fully tested, being put on a front line. It changes nothing for the risk of flying in Turkish airspace though.

JJJJNR

They can counter attack though, on any target within a 600km radius, that takes out a Russian fighter, any aircraft wanting to engage now is basically on a suicide mission, given what I've read about it.

BoJack Horseman

JJJJNR wrote: »

They can counter attack though, on any target within a 600km radius, that takes out a Russian fighter, any aircraft wanting to engage now is basically on a suicide mission, given what I've read about it.

the tone regarding the S-400 is that its some sort of world altering super weapon.

Its essentially the equivelent of (cleverly) combining an America's Patriot battery & a THAAD battery in the one system.

In February, the UAE signed off on a deal with Lockheed to purchase a THAAD battery, this will cover almost all of the Iranian coastline & a good distance inland....
There was no awestruck response for this though & AFAIK, the Iranain AF will still be able to fly their planes.

gandalf

JJJJNR wrote: »

They can counter attack though, on any target within a 600km radius, that takes out a Russian fighter, any aircraft wanting to engage now is basically on a suicide mission, given what I've read about it.

And if they do that then the Turks will respond. Remember the Turkish armed forces have a strength of over 1,000,000 between active and reserve units. It wouldn't be very clever for the Russians to provoke a "hardman" like Erdogan who seems to behave exactly the way Putin does.

I didn't realise how substantial the Turkish armed forces are until I checked them out the other day.

I am hoping all the rhetoric coming from Putin and Erdogan is just chest puffing for the home audience and it doesn't translate into aggressive action because it won't take a lot to escalate this even further and based on the persona's involved they will sacrifice people before they will contemplate losing face.

Manach

Turks were historically (18th-20th) good troops, armed with contemporary weapons and could field significant armies. However the Russians (from what I've read on their various conflicts) did manage to push them their frontiers back significantly over that period. Leaving aside any alliances, even border skirmishes between the two had a tendency to escalate to full war. So hopefully an outbreak of common sense will occur before this escalates even further.

Dannyboy83

Manach wrote: »

Turks were historically (18th-20th) good troops, armed with contemporary weapons and could field significant armies. However the Russians (from what I've read on their various conflicts) did manage to push them their frontiers back significantly over that period. Leaving aside any alliances, even border skirmishes between the two had a tendency to escalate to full war. So hopefully an outbreak of common sense will occur before this escalates even further.

Economic considerations will probably mean peace will prevail before anything gets started. (I don't say common sense, because appeasing Putler is not necessarily so)

The US/Russia have a memorandum in place concerning Air Safety and the Russians are extremely unlikely to violate that.
Tomahawk missiles can be configured to take out S-400 sites, and F-22 to clean up.

Russian bombers are now going to be escorted by Russian fighters (Russian sortie costs and wear'n'tear have just doubled meaning less of them probably)

The game changer here is Erdogan standing up to Putin, not the S-400 deployment (that was planned for). Ukraine have now embargoed Russian gas and have closed air space to ALL Russian aircraft, with shoot orders if their borders are violated...Other countries are going to start to look weak unless they compel the Russians to respect their borders.

Don't forget, it's only a few months since the Russians violated Irish air space with nuclear weapons onboard (we are weak tho, militarily at least)

IrishTrajan

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

The game changer here is Erdogan standing up to Putin, not the S-400 deployment (that was planned for). Ukraine have now embargoed Russian gas and have closed air space to ALL Russian aircraft, with shoot orders if their borders are violated...Other countries are going to start to look weak unless they compel the Russians to respect their borders.

Source?
Ukraine has quite large gas reserves, but can they extract them for use around the country, or are they buying LNG from the Arab States?

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Don't forget, it's only a few months since the Russians violated Irish air space with nuclear weapons onboard (we are weak tho, militarily at least)

They never actually went into Irish space, they came into air space that the IAA is responsible for. I'd like us to have acquired fast jets to counter it, but the DF doesn't have the resources devoted to it for that.

InTheTrees

JJJJNR wrote: »

They can counter attack though, on any target within a 600km radius, that takes out a Russian fighter, any aircraft wanting to engage now is basically on a suicide mission, given what I've read about it.

I think both sides posses anti-radar missiles. The US certainly does.

A s400 unit is just a huge lorry with a launcher. It has no defense agaisnt a targeted bomb.

I'm no expert though.

Gatling

IrishTrajan wrote: »

Source?
Ukraine has quite large gas reserves, but can they extract them for use around the country, or are they buying LNG from the Arab States?

Over the last 12 months they reduced their dependence on Russian gas and coal by around 30 % ,
Now what they have done is there buying gas from the eu countries getting special low gas rates off russia, who then use pipelines to send it back to Ukraine.
Russia in turn will at some point shut down gas to various eu countries for helping Ukraine.

Also today the Kremlin stopped all coal supplies to Ukraine.

Gatling

InTheTrees wrote: »

I think both sides posses anti-radar missiles. The US certainly does.

A s400 unit is just a huge lorry with a launcher. It has no defense agaisnt a targeted bomb.

I'm no expert though.

They do have a separate system designed to prevent strikes against the S400.
The Pansir S1 system which strangely has been in syria since russia began its build it last month

InTheTrees

Gatling wrote: »

They do have a separate system designed to prevent strikes against the S400

There's very few technologies that will take out an incoming missile and they're extremely expensive.

Gatling

InTheTrees wrote: »

There's very few technologies that will take out an incoming missile and they're extremely expensive.

The Pansir S1 system russia sent over a month ago to syria
Would be used to defend the S400s

Dannyboy83

IrishTrajan wrote: »

Source?
Ukraine has quite large gas reserves, but can they extract them for use around the country, or are they buying LNG from the Arab States?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/11/25/ukraine-crisis-russia-gas-idUKL8N13K1R820151125
"The government has decided to order (state energy firm) Naftogaz to stop buying Russian gas. It is not that they are not delivering us gas, it is that we are not buying any," Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk told a government meeting.

Seems they are trying to source a cheaper alternative.
There are new LNG facilities coming online in Europe (Norway and Lithuania - the Russians penalised Lithuania for that with economic sanctions), but it's questionable whether they can meet demand.

Realpolitik as I understand it so far is that Russians want money upfront and want to rip the Ukrainians off, the Ukrainians don't want to pay upfront and don't want to be ripped off.
Both are claiming they 'cut the other side' off.
Russians are also trying to use the issue as leverage to get power restored to Crimea, where power lines are apparently being brought down on a regular basis.

Gazprom’s CEO, Alexey Miller, warned that Ukraine’s move could have grave consequences for the rest of Europe, saying that it “threatens safe gas transit to Europe … this coming winter”.

This is Russian code for saying they are ****ting bricks.
Bear in mind, Russia covertly invaded Ukraine well over a year ago.
Yet they kept the gas flowing - because they have to!

If the Russian planes violate Ukrainian airspace, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will act similarly to the Turkish Air Force response against the Russian Su-24, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Oleksandr Turchynov said on Tuesday, according to an UNIAN correspondent.

Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/politics/1192745-turchynov-ukrainian-military-will-to-act-similarly-to-turkish-in-case-russia-violates-airspace.html

Seems they are under orders not to respond to ground based militant provocation however, I assume this is in compliance with Minsk II, but it's unclear presently.

They never actually went into Irish space, they came into air space that the IAA is responsible for. I'd like us to have acquired fast jets to counter it, but the DF doesn't have the resources devoted to it for that.

The point here is that they have flagrantly and repeatedly disregarded international borders, be they Georgian, Ukrainian or Turkish or Irish: Russian bomber in Irish air space 'had nuclear weapon'
or Swedish: Sweden Complains to Russia Over Airspace Violation
or etc. etc.
There is a comprehensive list of similar events here:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/full-list-of-incidents-involving-russian-military-and-nato-since-march-2014-9851309.html

Erdogan is of course using a double standard, the realpolitik is that the Russian's were murdering Turkish associates and Turkey resolved to show Putin he cannot act with impunity.

The Russians are quite shocked that someone has refused to appease them and Lavrov announced today the suspension of Turkish Visas.

Russians will decry Erdogan of supporting Jabhat Al Nusra, Al Qaeda or whoever, while expecting the rest of the world to forget about Igor Strelkov and the Little Green Men.
Russia can violate the rules (and they do - constantly), but what they cannot do is cry foul when when somebody else plays them at their own game (and wins).

Dannyboy83

InTheTrees wrote: »

I think both sides posses anti-radar missiles. The US certainly does.

A s400 unit is just a huge lorry with a launcher. It has no defense agaisnt a targeted bomb.

I'm no expert though.

S-400 is a formidable piece of equipment, with long range, comprehensive processing abilities (up to 300 targets at once iirc), and multiple range missiles.
Considered among the most advanced of air defence systems, and it's a serious threat to Turkey and Israel.

Not so much to the US.
The Tomahawk flys low and slow to evade radar and doesn't create a sonic boom.
And the F-22 has the radar cross section of a small bird (good luck picking out the bird with a radar homing missile).

cerastes

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Russians will decry Erdogan of supporting Jabhat Al Nusra, Al Qaeda or whoever, while expecting the rest of the world to forget about Igor Strelkov and the Little Green Men.
Russia can violate the rules (and they do - constantly), but what they cannot do is cry foul when when somebody else plays them at their own game (and wins).

Isn't this what Turkey has done with the Greek border? and over Syria?

Yet they decide to take down an aircraft that crossed their territory counted in seconds?
If anything, this is blatant double standards by Turkey

Dannyboy83

cerastes wrote: »

Isn't this what Turkey has done with the Greek border? and over Syria?

Yet they decide to take down an aircraft that crossed their territory counted in seconds?
If anything, this is blatant double standards by Turkey

Of course it is, that's what I said.
Erdogan is using a double standard, I think there were 22,000 Greek and Turkish border violations in the last year or something insane (but no bombing of civilians hence no shot down aircraft).

If you can find it, there is a quote (I'm paraphrasing) - "A temporary border violation is no excuse to attack military assets". This was said by Erdogan in reference to Syrians shooting down a Turkish aircraft.

The Russians were very clearly warned last Friday by the Turkish government to stop killing their associates, and the US even independently warned Russia that Erdogan will not appease them.

The Russians can't handle the fact that Erdogan is using their exact same tactics AGAINST them, (except more successfully) lol! And they are livid because the best retaliation they can muster so far is cancellation of the visa-free system. They look emotional, not calculating.

Russians have lost face both abroad and at home.
It now looks like they are incapable of leading a coalition - hence the 'stabbed in the back' meme.
Russian airforce will be more cautious around NATO borders, and borders of other countries now and apparently they are considering using GPS in their aircraft now (so much for GLONASS) and improved air-to-air defenses (considering they claim to be fighting ISIS, this is really undermining them)

There is unlikely to be a 'quick victory' or 'Mission accomplished' for Russia, if they pull out with their tail between their legs, it might even topple Putin and the Russian economy looks unlikely to stabilize next year according to Kudrin (especially not with the recent developments in Ukraine & Turkey)

The Russian economy is likely to decline in 2016, while a growth is possible in 2017, former Russian Finance Minister, Civil Initiatives Committee head Alexei Kudrin has said.

Inflation is rampant and food prices will increase even more.

This is turning into a Quagmire for Russia.

cerastes

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Don't forget, it's only a few months since the Russians violated Irish air space with nuclear weapons onboard (we are weak tho, militarily at least)

I never heard it this way, but I see someone (after your post confirmed what I thought had occurred)

IrishTrajan wrote: »

They never actually went into Irish space, they came into air space that the IAA is responsible for. I'd like us to have acquired fast jets to counter it, but the DF doesn't have the resources devoted to it for that.

The things is, the AirCorps/Irish system is woefully unprepared to handle a fast jet set up, aside from the fact that the aircraft, guns and missles cost a fortune in maintenance, (how could they ever be justified over other utility aircraft or even improving some other situation elsewhere in our country?) for the odd incursion where there is no military intent against us.
Fast jets need other support systems and for it to be completely reliable as an air defence system would probably mean having radar fully in the control of a military command, even though I think a private operator would more likely run it cheaper and better,
on top of this the type of aircraft needed would have to match a certain type of requirement, and from what I read about Bears and Tornados, this put the Tornado at a distinct disadvantage regarding the operating speed and range of those intercepting aircraft and their ability to catch up to, catch and maintain contact long enough for them to engage (I know its Eurofighters now which may differ, but there are still likely disadvantages).

Its not simply a matter of picking out nice new toys and heading off to shoot down enemy aircraft.

Anyway, who the hell is going to organise the rules of engagement? who would authorise an engagement? and now after all that, why? when we are not being attacked, where in fact no one is being attacked???

On top of this, how does anyone know the aircraft were carrying nuclear weapons? I thought this was not commonplace in peacetime or at least since the end of the coldwar for aircraft to be carrying live capable nuclear weaponry? wouldnt that suggest a ratcheting up of the Russian equivalent of defcon status? to actually take off with live nukes capable onboard?

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

This is Russian code for saying they are ****ting bricks.
Bear in mind, Russia covertly invaded Ukraine well over a year ago.
Yet they kept the gas flowing - because they have to!

Seems they are under orders not to respond to ground based militant provocation however, I assume this is in compliance with Minsk II, but it's unclear presently.

The point here is that they have flagrantly and repeatedly disregarded international borders, be they Georgian, Ukrainian or Turkish or Irish: Russian bomber in Irish air space 'had nuclear weapon'
or Swedish: Sweden Complains to Russia Over Airspace Violation
or etc. etc.
There is a comprehensive list of similar events here:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/full-list-of-incidents-involving-russian-military-and-nato-since-march-2014-9851309.html

Erdogan is of course using a double standard, the realpolitik is that the Russian's were murdering Turkish associates and Turkey resolved to show Putin he cannot act with impunity.

The Russians are quite shocked that someone has refused to appease them and Lavrov announced today the suspension of Turkish Visas.

Russians will decry Erdogan of supporting Jabhat Al Nusra, Al Qaeda or whoever, while expecting the rest of the world to forget about Igor Strelkov and the Little Green Men.
Russia can violate the rules (and they do - constantly), but what they cannot do is cry foul when when somebody else plays them at their own game (and wins).

And if a Turkish jet fires on another Russian bomber/attack aircraft again and it happens to be escorted by a fighter aircraft? do you think the Russians will fly idly by? maybe the Russians should be more careful around the border of a conflict zone, but the aircraft was not directing its attack at Turkey, it could easily have been a navigational error, the warning to the pilot could have been not communicated (ie who says they are listening on the correct frequency or even understood the warning?)
It could very easily have inflamed the situation worse by what has been done.

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

(considering they claim to be fighting ISIS, this is really undermining them)

There is unlikely to be a 'quick victory' or 'Mission accomplished' for Russia, if they pull out with their tail between their legs, it might even topple Putin and the Russian economy looks unlikely to stabilize next year according to Kudrin (especially not with the recent developments in Ukraine & Turkey)


Inflation is rampant and food prices will increase even more.

This is turning into a Quagmire for Russia.

The problem is, humiliating a country, even a bully may not improve the situation, this is not exactly like Putin and Russia is a windbag, they might be a bully that have the capacity to do actual damage if they chose to or were pushed too far and to prove the point they are not incapable, they might be forced to prove that point.

The idea that rampant inflation or increasing food prices will weaken Russia to the point of giving up might seem like the outcome to some, but it seems as likely to be a reason that a conflict will increase in intensity or expand.
What Turkey has done seems to support their fifth column in Syria, it seems to prove their actions to be less legitimate, I hope Russian aircraft steer clear of the Turkish border but I hope the Russians pound the Turkish supported terrorists into the ground,
The thing is, if any Turkish aircraft or any other uninvited nations aircraft enter Syrian airspace, it seems to be a green light of acceptance for the Russians to shoot them down, I would not be suprised if any Turkish aircraft strayed over were blown out of the sky, this has only ratcheted up tension and the problems in the region, as there is the potential for other nations aircraft to be accidentally shot down if misidentified as a turkish aircraft.

karma_

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Of course it is, that's what I said.
Erdogan is using a double standard, I think there were 22,000 Greek and Turkish border violations in the last year or something insane (but no bombing of civilians hence no shot down aircraft).

If you can find it, there is a quote (I'm paraphrasing) - "A temporary border violation is no excuse to attack military assets". This was said by Erdogan in reference to Syrians shooting down a Turkish aircraft.

The Russians were very clearly warned last Friday by the Turkish government to stop killing their associates, and the US even independently warned Russia that Erdogan will not appease them.

The Russians can't handle the fact that Erdogan is using their exact same tactics AGAINST them, (except more successfully) lol! And they are livid because the best retaliation they can muster so far is cancellation of the visa-free system. They look emotional, not calculating.

Russians have lost face both abroad and at home.
It now looks like they are incapable of leading a coalition - hence the 'stabbed in the back' meme.
Russian airforce will be more cautious around NATO borders, and borders of other countries now and apparently they are considering using GPS in their aircraft now (so much for GLONASS) and improved air-to-air defenses (considering they claim to be fighting ISIS, this is really undermining them)

There is unlikely to be a 'quick victory' or 'Mission accomplished' for Russia, if they pull out with their tail between their legs, it might even topple Putin and the Russian economy looks unlikely to stabilize next year according to Kudrin (especially not with the recent developments in Ukraine & Turkey)


Inflation is rampant and food prices will increase even more.

This is turning into a Quagmire for Russia.

For me it was the Turks, through hubris who made the error here. when I think about what Turkey has been up to, I think of Charlie from Always Sunny and 'Wildcard bítches", it was that stupid.

The cynic in me would say that Russia encouraged this by continually flying close to gain political advantage and it's worked to some extent, for I've been surprised that much of the media here has been critical if Erdogan for over reacting.

Look at what has changed since; for a country that enjoyed regular incursions into Syrian airspace it has by all accounts been turned into a no-fly zone for them, it has now seen Russia give direct aid to the YPG at the Turkish border, which will hurt Erdogan in the pocket. Russia has also doubled down on aircraft numbers and it has finally placed a spotlight on the actions of Turkey in the region plus Russia now has increased co-operation from France. These are all things that Erdogan could have done without, he's far from a genius, that much is certain.

Sand

karma_ wrote: »

The cynic in me would say that Russia encouraged this by continually flying close to gain political advantage and it's worked to some extent, for I've been surprised that much of the media here has been critical if Erdogan for over reacting.

I don't see how Russia gains political advantage. Putin got a bloody nose and an embarrassing loss which highlighted the poor equipment (civillian GPS systems) in their military, and sheer inability to protect themselves on their little overseas adventure. The Russians will be on notice that flying anywhere near the Turkish border is very dangerous for them. The fact that Russia is now moving additional assets in only highlights that Putin didn't properly protect his military personnel in the first place. The bottom line is Turkey shot down a Russian jet and short of huffing and puffing, Russia cant do jack about it bar some silly agricultural inspections which further drive a wedge between Russia and another of its neighbours. How many low level conflicts and wars is Putin going to drag Russia into?

Nobody believes the Russian version of events, only highlighting how low Russia's stock is under Putin. They are quite literally the boy who called wolf. Even if they are totally correct in their version of events, no one believes it because Putin and the Kremlin are shameless pathological liars.

cerastes

And what if Russia decide to shoot down anything they cant identify as theirs?
The Turks have given them the green light to shoot anything down that crosses the Syrian borders

Sand

cerastes wrote: »

And what if Russia decide to shoot down anything they cant identify as theirs?
The Turks have given them the green light to shoot anything down that crosses the Syrian borders

If the Russians try to engage a NATO jet they're more than likely the ones who are going to be shot down. The Syrians are Russian allies. Who else is flying over Syria?

Or do you mean Russia will shoot down another civilian airliner?

karma_

Sand wrote: »

If the Russians try to engage a NATO jet they're more than likely the ones who are going to be shot down. The Syrians are Russian allies. Who else is flying over Syria?

Or do you mean Russia will shoot down another civilian airliner?

NATO is for collective defence, the mechanism wouldn't kick in if a Turkish Jet was shot down in syrian airspace, in fact Syria have already shot one down and it didn't invoke NATO wrath.

cerastes

Sand wrote: »

If the Russians try to engage a NATO jet they're more than likely the ones who are going to be shot down. The Syrians are Russian allies. Who else is flying over Syria?

Or do you mean Russia will shoot down another civilian airliner?

What are you talking about? are airliners still flying over conflict zones.
Its quite clear Im talking about military aircraft, I have not referred to civilian aircraft.
Ive clearly stated that Turkey has now set a standard (a low one of one rule for them and another for Russia) which by their bluster means they can expect to be held to that anytime from the shooting down of the Russian bomber/attack aircraft.

In other words, what complaint can they make if the Russians were to take down any aircraft but especially a Turkish one if they cross into Syria. So any aircraft which can be identified as having characteristics of a military jet or that of an aircraft operated by Turkey or any which is used by their allies which could be misidentified as a Turkish aircraft, ie speed/altitude.

The Turks have unnecessarily upped the ante here as the error was marginal, how can it be not a given that the Russians will arm their air to air capable aircraft with missles now or will shoot down in defence or to pre-empt any potential attack, especially as the Turks have already overflown Syria themselves, and complained of the same thing when the shoe was on the other foot.

The Russian aircraft should not have been over Turkey but I think there had to be more options than shooting it down, on top of that how is anyone to know any of the warnings were received or understood?

Its inviting trouble taking this step, maybe the Russians wont do anything or not now, but Id be surprised to think this will be just forgotten.

Gatling

karma_ wrote: »

in fact Syria have already shot one down and it didn't invoke NATO wrath.

For one reason turkey didn't invoke that all important Article 5 .

Till a member invokes Article 5 then nothing major happens

Elmer Blooker

Sand wrote: »

If the Russians try to engage a NATO jet they're more than likely the ones who are going to be shot down. The Syrians are Russian allies. Who else is flying over Syria?

Or do you mean Russia will shoot down another civilian airliner?

That civilian airliner would be MH17 I presume?
I never could quite figure out how the flight recorders ended up in a country that wasn't even involved in the inquest, in fact they weren't even used in the inquest for some strange reason?

Gatling

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

That civilian airliner would be MH17 I presume?
I never could quite figure out how the flight recorders ended up in a country that wasn't even involved in the inquest, in fact they weren't even used in the inquest for some strange reason?

Well again your wrong elmer .

The UK were asked to examine the black box's to see If they had been tampered with ,also their independent.
The inquest isn't done as you very well know the Technical Report was released ,and yes the Black boxes were used because they were able to use the cockpit microphones to determine where exactly and when the Buk missle detonated .
It's all contained in the Published Technical Report readily available on line .

Coming in February '16 The Criminal Investigation Report which will identify who was responsible for downing MH17.

BoJack Horseman

Gatling wrote: »

Coming in February '16 The Criminal Investigation Report which will identify who was responsible for downing MH17.

Squeeky bum time for the FSB.

Elmer Blooker

Gatling wrote: »

Well again your wrong elmer .

The UK were asked to examine the black box's to see If they had been tampered with ,also their independent.
The inquest isn't done as you very well know the Technical Report was released ,and yes the Black boxes were used because they were able to use the cockpit microphones to determine where exactly and when the Buk missle detonated .
It's all contained in the Published Technical Report readily available on line .

Coming in February '16 The Criminal Investigation Report which will identify who was responsible for downing MH17.

Hasn't the media (the best media that money can buy!) already decided who was responsible?
I found it very odd that no questions from the press were permitted on the day the Dutch investigation board released their .... findings.
Of course they're ....... independent.