Russian boots on the ground in Syria. Another Afghanistan?

Gatling

WarZ wrote: »

Putin isn't going to publicly start attacking the Syrian government when he has a base there and planes flying over Syria's missile defence systems.

Well see when Russia controls the missile defence systems not a lot syria can do .

And it's been confirmed again by the Kremlin there supplying arms and munitions to the FSA

glued

Gatling wrote: »

Well see when Russia controls the missile defence systems not a lot syria can do .

And it's been confirmed again by the Kremlin there supplying arms and munitions to the FSA

That's an easy allegation for the Kremlin to make as the FSA are possibly the worst organised mass resistance group in the Syrian War. If Russia are supporting pockets of groups that may be deemed to be FSA then it could easily be done without the 'leaders' of the FSA ever knowing.

The FSA exists on paper but not on the Battlefield as a mass resistance organisation.

glued

Well it looks as if the Rebels are being left to burn in Aleppo. No guns or ammo have entered the Rebels in Aleppo for days and now aid is struggling to reach the city. The Rebels are being decimated by the Russian support. The situation is growing worse by the day. A lot of the militias in the city would be moderates and Assad won't be afraid to slaughter them when they retake Aleppo in the coming weeks. Meanwhile the US are doing nothing but talking about Assad...

nacho libre

glued wrote: »

Well it looks as if the Rebels are being left to burn in Aleppo. No guns or ammo have entered the Rebels in Aleppo for days and now aid is struggling to reach the city. The Rebels are being decimated by the Russian support. The situation is growing worse by the day. A lot of the militias in the city would be moderates and Assad won't be afraid to slaughter them when they retake Aleppo in the coming weeks. Meanwhile the US are doing nothing but talking about Assad...

What is it they say about those calling the loudest for a ceasefire. Russia can basically do what it likes, Turkey can make noises, but they won't risk entering the war, nor will Saudi Arabia given they have their hands full in Yemen. It seem inevitable Aleppo will fall and the border with Turkey in that region will be controlled by Assad forces and those loyal to him. I think once that goal is achieved Russia might push Assad to agree to a truce. A outright victory in Aleppo would be a huge boost to Putin's image and demonstrate that Russia are a potent force on the world stage.

Tea drinker

The rebels walked out of the conference, they don't want a ceasefire. At least that's what Kerry inferred.

nacho libre

Tea drinker wrote: »

The rebels walked out of the conference, they don't want a ceasefire. At least that's what Kerry inferred.

I think they walked out because they feel Kerry did not do enough to stop the intensification of the Russian bombardment while the talks in Geneva started. They did it to try and put more pressure on the Americans to reign in Russia. The rebels are desperate for the Turks and Saudis to get involved to halt the momentum of Assad regime and its allies. I think they would be glad if there was a truce at this stage.

gandalf

Looks like the Russians have just bombed a MSF hospital in Northern Syria.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/air-strike-destroys-syrian-medical-centre-a6874676.html

IrishTrajan

gandalf wrote: »

Looks like the Russians have just bombed a MSF hospital in Northern Syria.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/air-strike-destroys-syrian-medical-centre-a6874676.html

I wonder how long it will be before the pro-Russian side will justify the bombing because a "terrorist was there" (or something similar) after mocking the US air strike on a hospital in Afghanistan and saying it's never justifiable.

gandalf

IrishTrajan wrote: »

I wonder how long it will be before the pro-Russian side will justify the bombing because a "terrorist was there" (or something similar) after mocking the US air strike on a hospital in Afghanistan and saying it's never justifiable.

It will be interesting alright. A second hospital has now been hit as well.

Shurimgreat

I just checked the Stop the War coalition website and twitter to see if they are outraged about the Russian bombing of hospitals.

Nothing, nada, zilch.

A lot of hot air about UK foreign policy, nothing about Russian bombing. Joke of an organisation.

Russian bombing fine, anyone else bombs its outrageous. No wonder the Russians feel they can bomb with impunity.

BoJack Horseman

Shurimgreat wrote: »

I just checked the Stop the War coalition website and twitter.

'Stop The West' are stuffed with Kremlin cash, so its only to be expected.

Lockstep

I have no time for Stop The War. Like our own Galway Alliance Against War, they're only critical of military intervention when it's done by the US.

Stop The War are a joke. The Economist did a good job highlighting the problems and double standards with the group.

That is the thing with Stop the War. It is not anti-war so much as anti-West; a permanent howl of relativist anguish at NATO and its members. For example, the group could hardly be more indulgent of Vladimir Putin’s wars. It defended the invasion of Georgia as a reaction to “the ambition of the USA to exercise global hegemony”, called many of the Maidan protesters in Kiev neo-Nazis and excused Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine and the Crimea. Tellingly, at its “anti-war” demonstration in London on December 1st a poster emblazoned with Syrian flags and the slogan “Support For Bashar Al-Assad” was brandished above the crowd.

Gatling

gandalf wrote: »

It will be interesting alright. A second hospital has now been hit as well.

I believe 24 + hospitals have been directly targeted by russian airforce jets since September

Gatling

Syrian ambassador to russia now claiming the US /coalition destroyed the MSF hospital today

BoJack Horseman

Gatling wrote: »

Syrian ambassador to russia now claiming the US /coalition destroyed the MSF hospital today

Sure, only a few days ago Russia was saying that A-10's were bombing targets in Aleppo, despite the US not flying manned missions that close to the RuAF area of operations.

It's like these guys are sexually aroused by lying.

Shurimgreat

The hospital was in an area the Russians/Syrians are trying desperately to take control of before a supposed ceasefire this Friday. The Americans are nowhere near that area, as I don't think IS are.

That said a lot of people will buy the lie that the Americans were responsible.

The Russians lie constantly, but when you have many people, in fact probably most people both in Russia and outside willing to believe them, then why not. Russia has managed to portray itself as the good guys in most people's eyes. They also have vocal shills like the Anti War Coalition on their side. Its very hard for anyone else to get a word in.

I don't think the ceasefire will happen on Friday. Russia/Syria know Obama is a weak president who runs away from confrontation.

Manach

After reading books like U.S. Military Operations: Law, Policy, and Practice
Geoffrey S. Corn, my take is that the US does make a better job at planning and handling targeting : ie it does take into account most best practices about protecting civilians. But even with this, mistakes were made by them and colateral damage results.
Russia is not so advanced and would look to be solely interested in wining by main force. So the destruction of such facilities is likely to be a war crime. However the issue with reckoning comes into the contact with the reality of their being no disinterested official body that can hold belligenerents to account, especially if they are regional/great powers.

BoJack Horseman

Indeed & many have been calling for the US to 'loosen up their rules of engagement.
I'm not sure they should though.... while it does make the dwindling number of targets harder to hit, the cost seems too great.

Gatling

So we might get a cease fire on Friday but according to russia there not part of any agreement and they will continue bombing.

Pointless exercise

BoJack Horseman

Gatling wrote: »

So we might get a cease fire on Friday but according to russia there not part of any agreement and they will continue bombing.

Pointless exercise

Oh absolutely....

ISIS, the SAA and every rebel group were not party to this thing... Russia said they can continue to attack 'terrorists', ie: everyone.... so the Uas signed a ceasefire with itself.

John Kerrys 'Neville Chamberlain' moment... the utter moron.

nacho libre

The Russians are employing the Grozny strategy all over again. They didn't really care about collateral damage then, and they don't care now. The bombing of Hospitals is wrong and it should be condemned, no matter who is responsible.
I read recently that 640 health workers have lost their lives in Syria within the past two years. That's despicable.

glued

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Sure, only a few days ago Russia was saying that A-10's were bombing targets in Aleppo, despite the US not flying manned missions that close to the RuAF area of operations.

It's like these guys are sexually aroused by lying.

All sides are doing it. Sure the Rebels accused Assad of creating ISIS. The problem is that the 'moderate rebels' that you so vehemently defended during this war have proven themselves to be nothing but Salfists. The irony of all this is that Syria was far more peaceful before the US decided to provide weapons and ammunition to illiterate extremists with no cause bar the promotion of their bizarre and blinkered view of the world. I'm not advocating Assad but it's the truth. The narrative your trying to tar the government with is being played by all sides.

It's well known the the US have delayed the retirement of the a A-10 to keep them in Syria. It's also probably the most distinguishable aircraft the US military has. They would be sitting ducks in the sky but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that A-10's were near Alepoo, as unlikely as that would be. Even older AA weaponry would easily pull an A-10 from the sky.

Nevertheless, it appears that is was the Russians who bombed the hospital which will only give the US more grounds to impose further sanctions on Russia via the UN.

Gatling

glued wrote: »

It's well known the the US have delayed the retirement of the a A-10 to keep them in Syria. It's also probably the most distinguishable aircraft the US military has. They would be sitting ducks in the sky but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that A-10's were near Alepoo, as unlikely as that would be. Even older AA weaponry would easily pull an A-10 from the sky.

Totally wrong on all points .

The A10 wasn't kept for syria sorry .
The A10 just happens to be the baddest flying tank in the sky and the best close support aircraft in any military service any where ,the main reason troops and senior commanders wanted it kept flying is pretty simple and it's has nothing to do with syria ,
They have nothing comparable to replace it with it flys low and slow and can unleash burrrrrrrrrrrrr from hell.

And for the second time there is only russia and what's left of assads airforce attacking civilian populations. schools and hospitals

IrishTrajan

glued wrote: »

All sides are doing it. Sure the Rebels accused Assad of creating ISIS. The problem is that the 'moderate rebels' that you so vehemently defended during this war have proven themselves to be nothing but Salfists. The irony of all this is that Syria was far more peaceful before the US decided to provide weapons and ammunition to illiterate extremists with no cause bar the promotion of their bizarre and blinkered view of the world. I'm not advocating Assad but it's the truth. The narrative your trying to tar the government with is being played by all sides.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Democratic_Forces

You're wrong though.

BoJack Horseman

glued wrote: »

It's well known the the US have delayed the retirement of the a A-10 to keep them in Syria.

No, what is well known is that the Thunderbold is expected to be in the USAF service until the late 2020s & possible beyond if the air frames can take it.

It's also probably the most distinguishable aircraft the US military has. They would be sitting ducks in the sky

Indeed... which makes you wonder, why did the RUaf or the dictatorships forces provide any proof?
A 'hog would be very easy to prove on radar.

Nevertheless, it appears that is was the Russians who bombed the hospital.

Au contraire mon frere!
Stop the presses! The Assad dictatorship & it's Russian owners have shown us the light... it was actually the evil US who destroyed those MSF hospitals a few days ago!

Remember what BoJack posted above about the Kremlins horn for lying!
Kleenex all round for these dipsticks.

It's beyond pity that anyone would believe these tyrants.

BoJack Horseman

glued wrote: »

The problem is that the 'moderate rebels' that you so vehemently defended during this war have proven themselves to be nothing but Salfists.

2 things... yes, there are moderates... always have been.. there just is fewer now after 5 years of being pounded by far stronger forces.

What do you mean by 'Salafists'?

Almost all of the worlds Salafists live in Bangladesh & India, who are not involved in the Syrian civil war (to my knowledge)... what do you mean above?

Gatling

Only 7 A10s have been shot down in nearly 40 years of combat service despite doing the most dangerous job you can ask a pilot and aircraft to do

Overheal

Gatling wrote: »

Totally wrong on all points .

The A10 wasn't kept for syria sorry .
The A10 just happens to be the baddest flying tank in the sky and the best close support aircraft in any military service any where ,the main reason troops and senior commanders wanted it kept flying is pretty simple and it's has nothing to do with syria ,
They have nothing comparable to replace it with it flys low and slow and can unleash burrrrrrrrrrrrr from hell.

And for the second time there is only russia and what's left of assads airforce attacking civilian populations. schools and hospitals

The F35 is designated to replace the CAS role of the A10 at a future date. Currently the software features for the F35 are in an incomplete state to accomplish that role. Additionally, there is a certain fear factor to the A10 that works well against ISIS forces and the like, and its a proven warframe. The F35 will abandon this doctrine, instead providing high-altitude CAS via JDAM bombs coordinated with boots on the ground via SADL-EPLRS networking.

If the F35 was on its original schedule, and not almost 7 years behind schedule or so, it would already be replacing A10s in the field. As it is, the needs of the military are prolonging the A10 program.

glued

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

2 things... yes, there are moderates... always have been.. there just is fewer now after 5 years of being pounded by far stronger forces.

What do you mean by 'Salafists'?

Almost all of the worlds Salafists live in Bangladesh & India, who are not involved in the Syrian civil war (to my knowledge)... what do you mean above?

You must have very little understanding of it to ask me a question like that.

BoJack Horseman

glued wrote: »

You must have very little understanding of it to ask me a question like that.

Really.

You are the one conflating an Indian sub-continent sect of Islam with Syria.

I implore you to help me lift my veil of ignorance & explain further!

Count Dooku

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Really.

You are the one conflating an Indian sub-continent sect of Islam with Syria.

I implore you to help me lift my veil of ignorance & explain further!

You should start to read your own links before posting

Wahhabism is a more strict, Saudi form of Salafism,[85][86] according to Mark Durie, who states that Saudi leaders "are active and diligent" using their considerable financial resources "in funding and promoting Salafism all around the world."[87] Ahmad Moussalli tends to agree with the view that Wahhabism is a subset of Salafism, saying "As a rule, all Wahhabis are salafists, but not all salafists are Wahhabis"

Hande hoche!

Seems like the Russians are withdrawing some of their forces http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35807689

BoJack Horseman

Yeah, partial withdrawl of some of the ground forces.

AbusesToilets

Some interesting points about possibles contributing factors for their withdrawal in this article. Main points being the increase in MANPADs seeing use by the rebels groups, which pose a significant risk to Russian aircraft, as they lack warning systems for inbound missiles.

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/putin-orders-immediate-draw-down-of-russian-forces-in-s-1764803423

BoJack Horseman

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Some interesting points about possibles contributing factors for their withdrawal in this article. Main points being the increase in MANPADs seeing use by the rebels groups, which pose a significant risk to Russian aircraft, as they lack warning systems for inbound missiles.

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/putin-orders-immediate-draw-down-of-russian-forces-in-s-1764803423

I think Tyler Rogoway is perhaps overstating the MANPAD threat.

Russia has flown thousands of sorties & has suffered zero losses to MANPADS.
What very limited MANPAD availability there is can simply be countered by flying above their ceiling & for what the SAA have, is only about 12,000ft.

But I think this drawdown (if it actually happens) will be ground troops.... I think the air-force remain as is.

AbusesToilets

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

I think Tyler Rogoway is perhaps overstating the MANPAD threat.

Russia has flown thousands of sorties & has suffered zero losses to MANPADS.
What very limited MANPAD availability there is can simply be countered by flying above their ceiling & for what the SAA have, is only about 12,000ft.

But I think this drawdown (if it actually happens) will be ground troops.... I think the air-force remain as is.

His point I think, was in reference to an escalation of armament on the rebels part going forward. Certainly viewed through the prism of the wider conflict between Saudi and Iran, there is scope for mischief on the part of the Saudis by improving the quality of arms they are undoubtedly funneling into Syria.

BoJack Horseman

AbusesToilets wrote: »

His point I think, was in reference to an escalation of armament on the rebels part going forward. Certainly viewed through the prism of the wider conflict between Saudi and Iran, there is scope for mischief on the part of the Saudis by improving the quality of arms they are undoubtedly funneling into Syria.

Thing is, I don't think the KSA have any MANPADS to smuggle into Syria....

Qatar has done so apparently.... sending in some of these.
Whatever else is there is likely to be stock pilfered or taken from the SAA's own stocks.

And it looks like I was wrong.... the BBC at least are saying some aircraft are preparing to leave Syria.

Gatling

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

And it looks like I was wrong.... the BBC at least are saying some aircraft are preparing to leave Syria.

Apparently several are leaving but Russian ministers have said airstrikes against "Terrorists" will continue

I wonder if the cost of bombing syria is catching up with Putin

BoJack Horseman

Gatling wrote: »

I wonder if the cost of bombing syria is catching up with Putin

Apparently it's costing between $3m-$4m per day....

That is bearable, but the reason for the Russian intervention has been achieved... so the case for spending more probably diminishes.

Gatling

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Apparently it's costing between $3m-$4m per day....

That is bearable, but the reason for the Russian intervention has been achieved... so the case for spending more probably diminishes.

Around a billion give or take .

He's likely going going to turn his attention to further destabilisatise europe with the rise of right wing anti migration parties across the continent and we know who's the biggest backer of right wing groups and parties

Elmer Blooker

Gatling wrote: »

He's likely going going to turn his attention to further destabilisatise europe with the rise of right wing anti migration parties across the continent and we know who's the biggest backer of right wing groups and parties

I wasn't aware that Poland's dictatorship is backed by Putin. The EU of course looks the other way.

It has been distressing these past weeks to watch Poland, long the poster child of Eastern European states that shed the Kremlin’s suffocating embrace, adopting dictatorial measures of its own, not least a right-wing, nationalistic assault on the country’s media and judiciary. The European Commission is scheduled to examine possible sanctions on Wednesday, but it is unlikely to take any,

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/13/opinion/poland-deviates-from-democracy.html?_r=0

Poland doesn't want immigrants! That's right, millions of Poles living in western Europe as immigrants and they don't like immigrants!
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/02/poles-dont-want-immigrants-they-dont-understand-them-dont-like-them

Hande hoche!

Gatling wrote: »

Around a billion give or take .

He's likely going going to turn his attention to further destabilisatise europe with the rise of right wing anti migration parties across the continent and we know who's the biggest backer of right wing groups and parties

The proportion of the population that votes for them?

Gatling

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I wasn't aware that Poland's dictatorship is backed by Putin. The EU of course

Your comical Elmer

70 years of Russian boots and oppression of your country will do that .

Elmer Blooker

Gatling wrote: »

70 years of Russian boots and oppression of your country will do that .

70 years of Soviet occupation? 1945 + 70 = 2015.

UK foreign secretary condemns tactics of Russian pilots, saying they are running return raids on targets to hit rescue workers

Do people actually believe this stuff? This is desperation.
I see this this Guardian journalist is based in Adana in Turkey, is he afraid to cross the border into Syria and find out for himself whats going on instead of depending on .. cough .. cough .. "activists" for information?
Surely the freedom loving moderates wouldn't lay a finger on him.


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/15/russia-accused-of-breaching-norms-of-war-by-targeting-civilians-in-syria

Gatling

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Do people actually believe this stuff?

But you expect the world to believe your account of whats happening in syria and other conflicts russians are involved in .

Have you been to syria lately at all .

There's plenty of accounts from medial staff on the ground of first strikes and subsequent follow up airstrikes while people are been rescued by first responders ,

Count Dooku

Hande hoche! wrote: »

Seems like the Russians are withdrawing some of their forces http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35807689

Actually it never was a secret that Russia was going for short mission
Russian air strikes in Syria to last three-four months: Putin ally | Reuters
Only russophobes were trying to find reasons why Putin should stay in Syria forever and conquer the world.

Tea drinker

Gatling wrote: »

But you expect the world to believe your account of whats happening in syria and other conflicts russians are involved in .

Have you been to syria lately at all .

There's plenty of accounts from medial staff on the ground of first strikes and subsequent follow up airstrikes while people are been rescued by first responders ,

So what? Is it only when Russia does this it is bad? US bombs weddings, funerals and even the funerals of the first funeral they bombed.
Lot's of sour grapes over how EU and NATO was made to look wholly inadequate.

Meanwhile EU dictator Angie Merkel, head of the German regime has ignored calls from Europe to not accept illegal migrants and insists that all countries must take a share of the problem she encouraged.
EU-NATO fomented and armed rebellion in Libya, Syria and the migrant flow and millions of displaced for past years is fault of recent Russian intervention.
EU-NATO started wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and the dictatorship lied and deceived the public for the real reasons for the war. Now there is a flood of migrants from these and other countries that the EU navy actually transports onto the EU Shores.
The EU has allowed ISIS to infiltrate it's borders, refuses to protect it's borders, will not deport illegals in meaningful amounts.
Even this week that Algerian guy killed in Brussels, had come to attention of authorities for theft in 2014 - yet EU refused to deport him.
Ya reap what you sow, no use trying to blame Putin when our foreign and domestic policy fails spectacularly.

IrishTrajan

Tea drinker wrote: »

So what? Is it only when Russia does this it is bad? US bombs weddings, funerals and even the funerals of the first funeral they bombed.
Lot's of sour grapes over how EU and NATO was made to look wholly inadequate.

"Look, the US did something bad, that justifies in Russia doing something bad!"

That's not how it works.

Tea drinker wrote: »

Meanwhile EU dictator Angie Merkel, head of the German regime has ignored calls from Europe to not accept illegal migrants and insists that all countries must take a share of the problem she encouraged.
EU-NATO fomented and armed rebellion in Libya, Syria and the migrant flow and millions of displaced for past years is fault of recent Russian intervention.
EU-NATO started wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and the dictatorship lied and deceived the public for the real reasons for the war. Now there is a flood of migrants from these and other countries that the EU navy actually transports onto the EU Shores.
The EU has allowed ISIS to infiltrate it's borders, refuses to protect it's borders, will not deport illegals in meaningful amounts.
Even this week that Algerian guy killed in Brussels, had come to attention of authorities for theft in 2014 - yet EU refused to deport him.

The fact that you call the EU a dictatorship, but then ride Putin's jock-strap, when he's an actual dictator, is laughable.

Tea drinker wrote: »

Ya reap what you sow, no use trying to blame Putin when our foreign and domestic policy fails spectacularly.

I don't think anyone has blamed the problems of the West on Russia. Russia isn't that important on the world stage.

That in no way changes the fact that Russia has committed gross atrocities in Syria by callously bombing (and re-bombing) areas with civilians.

Tea drinker

Doesn't change the fact that EU has lost control of it's borders, cannot protect it's citizens and will not condemn Arab dictatorships it's aligned with. Horrific double standards, and easily covered up with a few well chosen platitudes. Just the usual claptrap for the masses that the migrant crisis has been caused by Putin etc. Keep drinking that peaceful and moral NATO kool aid.
NATO air display and fly pasts for the Jihadi's for a year before Putin sorted them out, and NATO had to stop pretending. Massive influx of migrants and no way to stop them, all from NATO wars.
That's what losing a war looks like. But Putin is bad ;-) and another Afghanistan for Russki's
Well yeah he may be bad, but I don't live there, I live in EU which is going to be transformed by our lost wars.

Gatling

So then Kurds have gone and set up their own Automus region in syria hardly new .
but they've been running their own region for two years
Much to the annoyance of syria ,Turkey ,Iraq russia .
The kurds are also looking to set up close ties to isreal .

And isis is still here