Russian boots on the ground in Syria. Another Afghanistan?

Chemical Byrne

Gatling wrote: »

There should now be a strict No fly zone imposed over all of syria ,
Put and end to Putins game before he does more damage

That possibility is fast becoming impossible. The russians are bringing in fairly sophisticated AA defences. They have the potential to impose their own no fly zone and establish air superiority and proceed to do as they please.

BoJack Horseman

Chemical Byrne wrote: »

That possibility is fast becoming impossible. The russians are bringing in fairly sophisticated AA defences. They have the potential to impose their own no fly zone and establish air superiority and proceed to do as they please.

Plus, Russia & the US will carve our their own areas of operation.... they have been discussing this already.

The US will focus on the eastern desert & IS, closer to their bases in the Gulf...
Russia will focus on the rest from the West.

the two will probably never cross paths.

glued

I'm not going to be drawn into a strawman argument. If you want to reply to my post in it's entirety then feel free.

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Plus, Russia & the US will carve our their own areas of operation.... they have been discussing this already.

The US will focus on the eastern desert & IS, closer to their bases in the Gulf...
Russia will focus on the rest from the West.

the two will probably never cross paths.

I think you probably will end up being correct in that the US will fight on the Western front and Russia will stay East securing rebel-held towns south of Damascus, North of Homs and West of Aleppo.

The problem is that the US know that this will keep Assad in power, especially if the Russians can give Assad control of the oil and gas reservoirs east of Palmyra.

Peist2007

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

I just can't buy that the killer of 100,000 of his own citizens and displaced milllions remains the best choice..... it sure wouldn't be my choice.

There are democratic movements in Syria.... its too ridiculously black/white to consider it a choice between secular & islamist tyrany,
Lets be honest, that is no choice at all.

And if there is no choice at all the logical solution is to do what Putin has said. A new cover story needs to be devised here - the Americans were never interested in democracy in the Middle East. If you think they are then you have swallowed the propoganda. The Americans see influence and dollars in the Middle East.

Had to laugh at news reports last night and this morning with Americans stating that the Russians are attacking civilians and that ISIS strongholds are being missed. Someone should sit these people down and show them videos of children born in Fallujah since 2011. Precision bombing my hole.

glued

Magico Gonzalez wrote: »

Russians making the same mistakes as their american cousins, these countries are redundant entities. Syria, Iraq etc. These entities have never recovered from the fall of the Ottoman empire and the ensuing loss of stability. Somehow these countries need to be allowed to fracture into their natural states. That might, as always, involves wars, winners and losers. Long term stability cannot come from hundred year old mistakes imposted by the British, French and Americans.

That's true. Saudi Arabia could easily be broken into 5 territories. Obviously Kurdistan would be created and the remainder of Iraq would be split too. Even Libya should be split into three countries. The boundary lines drawn as a result of the fall of the Ottoman Empire have destroyed the middle east.

BoJack Horseman

Peist2007 wrote: »

the Americans were never interested in democracy in the Middle East. If you think they are then you have swallowed the propoganda. The Americans see influence and dollars in the Middle East.

Had to laugh at news reports last night and this morning with Americans stating that the Russians are attacking civilians and that ISIS strongholds are being missed. Someone should sit these people down and show them videos of children born in Fallujah since 2011.

I dont recall ever mentioning America... perhaps you can quote my post?

I'm simply arguing for the Syrian's themselves to be allowed to self determine, the retention of a brutal dictator is in no way a victory for the people.

Some of you gents seem to be obsessed with the US.

BoJack Horseman

glued wrote: »

That's true. Saudi Arabia could easily be broken into 5 territories. Obviously Kurdistan would be created and the remainder of Iraq would be split too. Even Libya should be split into three countries..

Thusly...

Captain Chaos

Peist2007 wrote: »

Had to laugh at news reports last night and this morning with Americans stating that the Russians are attacking civilians and that ISIS strongholds are being missed. Someone should sit these people down and show them videos of children born in Fallujah since 2011. Precision bombing my hole.

It's not just the Americans saying that, the French are also claiming the same. Russia did not target any IS targets. They went after free state rebels that the US and French and UK back. Russia does not have percision bombs up to the class of the Western forces so they hit alot of civilian buildings.

Chemical Byrne

^
That looks like a setup that would suit the US down to the ground. Carve the whole ME up so that none of the entities have any power anymore and the US can then ride them rock solid up the hole for their resources.

Gatling

Chemical Byrne wrote: »

That possibility is fast becoming impossible. The russians are bringing in fairly sophisticated AA defences. They have the potential to impose their own no fly zone and establish air superiority and proceed to do as they please.

They said that when isreal launched its own strikes against syria they actually turned off the the then sophisticated Russian air defences.

Wouldn't take much to remove the the threat if needed to be ,

But as we know russia would use the UN to block any such moves

Peist2007

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

I dont recall ever mentioning America... perhaps you can quote my post?

I'm simply arguing for the Syrian's themselves to be allowed to self determine, the retention of a brutal dictator is in no way a victory for the people.

Some of you gents seem to be obsessed with the US.

I was responding to your admission that there is no choice here. Logically if there is no choice then the sovereign government should remain and the Russians are correct. I couldnt care less about the rest of your point to be honest.

As for your last sentence, well apologies, but if we are talking about the Middle East then this is all about the US. Unless you have been living under a rock for 20 years. The US through their own action and their geo-political policies have absolutely destroyed the region. They want Assad out to suit their own ends and have even helped fund ISIS through their Saudi brothers to do so.

To suggest that people blaming the US for the current situation in the Middle East are obsessed is completely disingenuous. They clearly are to blame. FFS

Peist2007

Captain Chaos wrote: »

It's not just the Americans saying that, the French are also claiming the same. Russia did not target any IS targets. They went after free state rebels that the US and French and UK back. Russia does not have percision bombs up to the class of the Western forces so they hit alot of civilian buildings.

And who are the French allied with?

Precision bombs? Look up the "precision bombing" carried out by allied forces in Iraq and the after effects now. Very precise.

Peist2007

Chemical Byrne wrote: »

^
That looks like a setup that would suit the US down to the ground. Carve the whole ME up so that none of the entities have any power anymore and the US can then ride them rock solid up the hole for their resources.

Could almost be a quote from "Project for a New American Century"

Gatling

Peist2007 wrote: »

And who are the French allied with?

Precision bombs? Look up the "precision bombing" carried out by allied forces in Iraq and the after effects now. Very precise.

It's actually rediculously accurate .

Drop a bomb pick a window or air vent and sit back and enjoy the show

IrishTrajan

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

I'd do this radical thing of allowing the people to decide themselves..

That sounds like a good idea, up until you get the Syrian version of Mohammed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood who would be infinitely worse than Assad.

BoJack Horseman

Peist2007 wrote: »

I couldnt care less about the rest of your point to be honest..

Aah... ok..

Good chat then.

Constructive as always.

Peist2007

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Aah... ok..

Good chat then.

Constructive as always.

You think that people are "obsessed with America" when talking about the Middle East. I never expected anything constructive from that starting position.

Peist2007

Gatling wrote: »

It's actually rediculously accurate .

Drop a bomb pick a window or air vent and sit back and enjoy the show

Zero. Credibility.

BoJack Horseman

IrishTrajan wrote: »

That sounds like a good idea, up until you get the Syrian version of Mohammed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood who would be infinitely worse than Assad.

Based on what though?

I'm not bigging up the MB, but under either, the prospects don't look good for the Syrian people.

The no 1 killer of Syrian civilians was & is Assad.... by a massive margin.
He makes IS look like girl scouts.

Still doesn't negate the legitimacy of allowing Syrian people self determination.

glued

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Assad, who inherited power, failed to implement the reforms the country needed

Without the ballot box and all opposition effectively stifled or in prison, Syrians had no recourse but to protest

Assad did have options - he chose the tanks and artillery route

What was the international community supposed to do? arm him?

Is that what they are supposed to do now that he has largely caused this chaos and the situation has deteriorated under him

That's the solution?

Who is saying to arm Assad? Nobody is saying that. Ultimately Assad and the Islamic extremist factions will have to be defeated here. Arming the rebels is as dumb as arming Assad, something which both the Americans and Saudi's have done. Russia and Iran will want to keep Assad in power but eventually Syria will have to be allowed to decide the fate of their own country. Allowing Syria to vote while the dust settles on a massive civil war would be a massive mistake.

Post-civil war there is no doubt that Syria will have to be dividend in order to remain somewhat peaceful. The problem is that the people who you appear to be supporting aren't going to bring peace to Syria. The rebels or Assad aren't the answer and nor is the SNC, for that matter.

What did you want the Russians to do? Leave the United States systematically destroy another country in the Middle East? Russia has its own interests to protect as do the Americans. Russia are just using Syria to create their only military outpost in the Middle East.

The US are making allies with the wrong people. The US have done nothing to stop the war. They're more than happy to arm the rebels who recruit child soldiers, have raped many women and killed thousands of women and children as part of their American backed campaign to oust Assad.

Don't you see the problem here? The US are too focused on stopping Assad. That won't end the war. They've now given guns, armour and training to many Islamic Extremists. Do you think they'll just pack up and go back to work when Assad is removed? This is just going to end in power struggle after power struggle.

IrishTrajan

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Based on what though?

From our standpoint. Assad is brutal, yes. But he's a known quantity. Even if Syria recovers from the civil war, he won't be doing anything radical to hurt us. The Muslim Brotherhood are not exactly sly in their calls for the destruction of the Western world and way of life.

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

I'm not bigging up the MB, but under either, the prospects don't look good for the Syrian people.

Lesser of two evils, I guess.

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

The no 1 killer of Syrian civilians was & is Assad.... by a massive margin.
He makes IS look like girl scouts.

I'm not praising the man, but he's a better alternative to someone motivated religiously. He can be reasoned with, he can be beat. Most religious fundamentalists can't be reasoned with and the only way to beat them is to drag them tooth and nail, kicking and screaming, from every nook and cranny they hide in. Like ISIS, they're going to have to be torn apart piece by piece until not a single one is left.

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Still doesn't negate the legitimacy of allowing Syrian people self determination.

In an ideal world, self-determination would be nice. But realistically, if an Islamist got into power, we'd probably be in a worse state. Look at Egypt; Mubarak was deposed, Morsi took power and tried to become a dictator, and had to be deposed by the military until al-Sisi came to power.

Gatling

Peist2007 wrote: »

Zero. Credibility.

So basically you made a false claim

Magico Gonzalez

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Thusly...

I think the breakup of Saudi Arabia in this map is wish fulfilment on behalf of "A libertarian future" , the internal pressure does not exist to break it up. There are dissident groups (there are separatist groups in Texas!) but not anywhere near the amount required to even table a serious discussion about the integrity of current Saudi borders.

That has more to do with a worldview which allows the US to commercially dominate the oil revenues in this region than any real definition of state borders.

Thinkingaboutit

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

It wont be anything like Afghanistan.
Russians will be in lower numbers & largely working from military installations.

Their target appears to be the remnants of the FSA & their islamist allies.

The opposition governemt in Idlib (the one our government see as the legitimate government) will soon be crushed.

Remnants?



You are aware that Assad is suffering repeated defeats in spite of the basic unity of his side (Assad family squabbles aside), and the lavish aid of Iran and Russia. The rebels have one third of the country (Daesh another third and nearly all the oil fields), which is why an allied force under the name of the Army of Conquest was the main target of the Russian bombing. They took Idlib city and province and are moving steadily into Latakia governorate. Russia is hard pressed financially, so I see little likelihood of much happening from their bombings except further offending Western states. Western bombings of Daesh achieved little except helping to beat back some of their more over-ambitious offensives. Only on Russia Today or wherever a Russian spokesman is, has Russia targeted Daesh.

Gatling

Thinkingaboutit wrote: »

Only on Russia Today or wherever a Russian spokesman is, has Russia targeted Daesh.

Yeah they also claim they weren't in Crimea or have any troops or military equipment in East Ukraine.
If they claim there hitting isis it's safe to say it's a lie

glued

Magico Gonzalez wrote: »

I think the breakup of Saudi Arabia in this map is wish fulfilment on behalf of "A libertarian future" , the internal pressure does not exist to break it up. There are dissident groups (there are separatist groups in Texas!) but not anywhere near the amount required to even table a serious discussion about the integrity of current Saudi borders.

That has more to do with a worldview which allows the US to commercially dominate the oil revenues in this region than any real definition of state borders.

That's not necessarily true. There is growing support for Sunni Extremism over Wahhabi absolutism (which the Saudi government currently employs) in Saudi Arabia. Although, ultimately it may not have any impact on their borders.

Also, people who think that you can just introduce democracy to some parts in the Middle East have a major misunderstanding of Muslims in the region. Just because you oppose Assad doesn't mean you support democracy. Many of the rebel factions will support Sunni Extremism which is anything but democratic.

BoJack Horseman

Thinkingaboutit wrote: »

Remnants?

Yes, Remnants.

The FSA as an organised deployable entity is all but defunct.

The war has been long, they took on the full might of the regime that didn't defect & suffered major & disproportionate casualties.

Most are dead, fled or switched to a stronger faction.

ancapailldorcha

Peist2007 wrote: »

Zero. Credibility.

This sort of comment adds nothing to the discussion. Please read the charter before posting again.

Dohnjoe

Thinkingaboutit wrote: »

Remnants?



You are aware that Assad is suffering repeated defeats in spite of the basic unity of his side (Assad family squabbles aside), and the lavish aid of Iran and Russia. The rebels have one third of the country (Daesh another third and nearly all the oil fields), which is why an allied force under the name of the Army of Conquest was the main target of the Russian bombing. They took Idlib city and province and are moving steadily into Latakia governorate. Russia is hard pressed financially, so I see little likelihood of much happening from their bombings except further offending Western states. Western bombings of Daesh achieved little except helping to beat back some of their more over-ambitious offensives. Only on Russia Today or wherever a Russian spokesman is, has Russia targeted Daesh.

Agreed, and not to mention Russia has only 30-odd aircraft in Latakia, with not so up-to-date munitions - ISIS is for the press, it's definitely to stall the rebel advances, which must be preparation for some sort of Assad exit

Peist2007

Gatling wrote: »

So basically you made a false claim

You are the only one making false claims, and across a number of threads. Very noticeable. Responded to AsherBassad's reasonable queries yet?

Peist2007

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This sort of comment adds nothing to the discussion. Please read the charter before posting again.

If it points some readers onto the fact that the user i was referring to comes from an extremely dubious place then i feel it definitely adds something to the discussion.

IrishTrajan

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Agreed, and not to mention Russia has only 30-odd aircraft in Latakia, with not so up-to-date munitions - ISIS is for the press, it's definitely to stall the rebel advances, which must be preparation for some sort of Assad exit

Not so. Russia could just as easily fill the SAA with new weapons and train them while its aircraft are pounding rebel forces, to allow for counter-offensives. If anything, this is Russia making sure the fight is at least prolonged and creating a stronger regional bond with Iran once the Iran-EU+3 deal goes through.

Gatling

IrishTrajan wrote: »

Not so. Russia could just as easily fill the SAA with new weapons and train them while its aircraft are pounding rebel forces, to allow for counter-offensives. If anything, this is Russia making sure the fight is at least prolonged and creating a stronger regional bond with Iran once the Iran-EU+3 deal goes through.

There saying now Iranian government troops are heading to syria along with Hezbollah troops apparently in preparation for an assad regime ground offensive with Russia providing aircover ,

This is really going to get messy

Gringo180

Gatling wrote: »

There saying now Iranian government troops are heading to syria along with Hezbollah troops apparently in preparation for an assad regime ground offensive with Russia providing aircover ,

This is really going to get messy

I don't think it can get any messier than it already is. But its better to see ground troops from the region getting involved rather than the the west sending there men out to die fighting a war that has nothing got to do with them.

Gatling

Gringo180 wrote: »

I don't think it can get any messier than it already is. But its better to see ground troops from the region getting involved rather than the the west sending there men out to die fighting a war that has nothing got to do with them.

But Iran ,Russian and Hezbollah killing syrian civilians isnt the way to go ,
If anything you can expect Israel to get involved at some point in the near future

ancapailldorcha

Peist2007 wrote: »

If it points some readers onto the fact that the user i was referring to comes from an extremely dubious place then i feel it definitely adds something to the discussion.

Don't dispute mod warnings on thread. Please use the PM function.

BoJack Horseman

Gatling wrote: »

If anything you can expect Israel to get involved at some point in the near future

If Israel feels weapons shipments to Hezbollah need dealing with, then they do.

Aside from that, Israel hasn't nor is likely to do anything I imagine.

Gringo180

Gatling wrote: »

But Iran ,Russian and Hezbollah killing syrian civilians isnt the way to go ,
If anything you can expect Israel to get involved at some point in the near future

Any aerial bombardment and ground invasion will inevitably cause civilian casualties. Let the Russians and Iranians sort this mess out, it can hardly get any worse than Iraq and god forbid if it does the blow back wont fall on the west's door.

IrishTrajan

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

If Israel feels weapons shipments to Hezbollah need dealing with, then they do.

Aside from that, Israel hasn't nor is likely to do anything I imagine.

There were reports of Israeli airstrikes in the south against Government supply depots, no?

BoJack Horseman

IrishTrajan wrote: »

There were reports of Israeli airstrikes in the south against Government supply depots, no?

I hadnt noticed anything recently.... but there certainly have been in the past.

Here is an interesting take on an Israeli incursion from last year...

Elmer Blooker

I'm watching BBC news now, could someone please tell me who these US backed rebels are? The FSA has ceased to exist, the "moderate" rebels were invented by the media. The only conclusion I can come to is that the US is backing al-Nusra/al-Qaeda.

Gatling

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

the "moderate" rebels were invented by the media.

Who's this according to

glued

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I'm watching BBC news now, could someone please tell me who these US backed rebels are? The FSA has ceased to exist, the "moderate" rebels were invented by the media. The only conclusion I can come to is that the US is backing al-Nusra/al-Qaeda.

The CIA have armed various rebel groups who they initially considered to be moderate Muslims. Most of which have gone on to join Islamic Extremist groups. An obvious would be the Shamiyya Front.

Dohnjoe

Gatling wrote: »

There saying now Iranian government troops are heading to syria along with Hezbollah troops apparently in preparation for an assad regime ground offensive with Russia providing aircover ,

This is really going to get messy

Will really drive up the price of oil if it gets messy..

Wait a second..

Gatling

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Will really drive up the price of oil if it gets messy..

Wait a second..

Not really no .

Opec decide that

Dohnjoe

Gatling wrote: »

Not really no .

Opec decide that

I mean really messy

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/01/us-mideast-crisis-syria-iranians-exclusi-idUSKCN0RV4DN20151001

plus Russian air

OPEC has it's limits if this spirals out of control

BoJack Horseman

BBC news @ 10 had some good footage of Russian attacks on FSA positions in Talbisah (between Homs & Hamah)....
18 killed... some very big ordnance dropped.

Some Russian Air force footage dropping what appeared to be cluster munitions aswell.

Lavrov actually said today that the FSA are not a terrorist organisation & are part of the Syrian solution.
He should let his colleagues in the air-force know.

Gatling

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

BBC news @ 10 had some good footage of Russian attacks on FSA positions in Talbisah (between Homs & Hamah)....
18 killed... some very big ordnance dropped.

Some Russian Air force footage dropping what appeared to be cluster munitions aswell.

Lavrov actually said today that the FSA are not a terrorist organisation & are part of the Syrian solution.
He should let his colleagues in the air-force know.

He also stated if it looks like a terrorist, walks like a terrorist, acts like a terrorist then it's is a terrorist,

Definitely cluster bombs and dumb Bombs

BoJack Horseman

Gatling wrote: »

and dumb Bombs

Yup....

The piece from Syria also briefly showed Russian ground crews loading up 'OFAB-250s' onto the underside of I think an SU-24..



in service by the Russian air force & Syrian airforce (amongst others)... as you can see... some stabilisation fins... but very much a dumb bomb.

Eugene Norman

The rebels were always Sunni sectarian rebels against a flawed but non-sectarian dictator. They are always bad news for Christians, Shia, or Alawites. ISIS is basically that group with different marketing.