Abortion Discussion, Part Trois

silverharp

it looks like there are ways of importing the pills in a way that customs wouldn't find out
http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/emily-s-story-an-illegal-abortion-in-ireland-1.2376568

“I was working part time and trying to get college projects finished. The thought of having a child on a meagre wage, living in an apartment I share with my mother . . . I wouldn’t be able to finish my education or look for work. What kind of start would that be for a baby?”

She had heard of a Netherlands-based NGO that posts abortion pills to women all over the world; she looked it up, then filled in its medical consultation form at home, on her laptop.

The site says that the pills cannot be posted to the Republic of Ireland but can be sent to Northern Ireland.

Emily paid €90 by PayPal – “It’s not cheap, but it is a lot less than travelling for an abortion” – and arranged to have the drugs delivered to the Co Antrim depot of Parcel Motel, the north-south delivery service, and from there to a collection kiosk near her home.

Absolam

Deleted User wrote: »

No. Adding the word I added made the post make far more sense. I pointed out that you missed that opportunity, and added the word.

I obviously wasn't quick enough editing my reply when I noticed you'd added to my point without plainly stating that you'd done so

Deleted User wrote: »

In much the same way that there are no accurate figures for other contraband imports into the state (weapons, drugs, cigarettes, alcohol) , the figures that we have for the items that have been stopped are confounded by several factors <...> confounding factors.

So in short, no, you can't give a substantive reason to think they have a significant effect on the statistics?

Shrap

silverharp wrote: »

it looks like there are ways of importing the pills in a way that customs wouldn't find out
http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/emily-s-story-an-illegal-abortion-in-ireland-1.2376568

Yes, that's a well known route of import. We'll never know how many have availed of it, but I imagine the stats of pill purchases addressed to the NI parcel service will become public at some point.

Absolam

silverharp wrote: »

it looks like there are ways of importing the pills in a way that customs wouldn't find out
http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/emily-s-story-an-illegal-abortion-in-ireland-1.2376568

Apparently in April 2015 Customs were already intercepting parcel motel deliveries, so it seems the Irish Times were about six months late letting that particular cat out of the bag...

Absolam

Absolam wrote: »

I obviously wasn't quick enough editing my reply when I noticed you'd added to my point without plainly stating that you'd done so

I assumed the emboldened and increased font would have drawn attention to my edit. Would a different colour have helped?

Absolam wrote: »

So in short, no, you can't give a substantive reason to think they have a significant effect on the statistics?

Sorry what?

I have explained to you that your attempted use of the 'found contraband' as a proxy or indicator of the 'attempted deliveries' and (but more importantly) 'successful deliveries' is only of virtue if you can control for the confounding factors.

Can you?

You have arbitrarily offered 'not likely' as the probability of a Customs' 'find rate' of 10%. Why?

Kiwi in IE

Absolam wrote: »

Yes; it's a silly swipe. I understand that any position adopted by a male that affects a female is readily portrayed as misogyny, but that's simply lazy argumentation.
The Church's stated position on contraception is based on what it sees as the gift of life from God; not on any position with regard to women. Yes, I understand that it is portrayed as misogyny because the Church hierarchy is male and the teaching affects women. That doesn't make it so though.

I'll assume you are aware of the history of how women have been treated historically in Ireland in all matters regarding fertility and reproduction, so I won't bother going into it. You are free to defend the indefensible if you wish, but don't expect me to show any respect for the RCC's stance on reproductive choices, until a time comes where only those who are part of the club, and freely choose to follow their doctrine, are effected by it. At the moment that is not the case. When the RCC minds its own business and does not insist that it's doctrine intrude upon the lives of non Catholics, I will cease criticising.

Absolam

Deleted User wrote: »

I assumed the emboldened and increased font would have drawn attention to my edit. Would a different colour have helped?

Saying you edited it would certainly have helped, but sure no harm done, I don't imagine there was any malicious intent

Deleted User wrote: »

Sorry what? I have explained to you that your attempted use of the 'found contraband' as a proxy or indicator of the 'attempted deliveries' and (but more importantly) 'successful deliveries' is only of virtue if you can control for the confounding factors. Can you?

I'm not attributing anything at all to what has been seized by Customs though; I was asking whether there was any substantive reason to think that what hasn't been seized is a statistically significant contributor to the drop in the number of abortions. From what you said I got the impression that you think there's no way of knowing what hasn't been seized, so can't provide anything substantive to show that the pills are a statistically significant contributor. Is that wrong?

Deleted User wrote: »

You have arbitrarily offered 'not likely' as the probability of a Customs' 'find rate' of 10%. Why?

Because if over 9000 abortion pills were getting through and being used, those 9000, plus the abortions carried out in the UK, and the abortions carried out in other jurisdictions, not forgetting those carried out in Ireland legally, would mean the abortion rate amongst Irish women had quadrupled since the pills became available, not just bucking the world wide trend, but increasing at a rate higher than any other country I've seen statistics for. And that seems implausible? But if there are indicitive statistics worth considering, I'll happily revise that...

Absolam

Absolam wrote: »

I'm not attributing anything at all to what has been seized by Customs though; I was asking whether there was any substantive reason to think that what hasn't been seized is a statistically significant contributor to the drop in the number of abortions. From what you said I got the impression that you think there's no way of knowing what hasn't been seized, so can't provide anything substantive to show that the pills are a statistically significant contributor. Is that wrong?

The only thing that we can infer from the number of seizures is the number of seizures.

I hope this helps.

Absolam

Kiwi in IE wrote: »

I'll assume you are aware of the history of how women have been treated historically in Ireland in all matters regarding fertility and reproduction, so I won't bother going into it.

I am, though I would draw a distinction between that subject and the one you commented on; the Church's stance on contraception.

Kiwi in IE wrote: »

You are free to defend the indefensible if you wish, but don't expect me to show any respect for the RCC's stance on reproductive choices, until a time comes where only those who are part of the club, and freely choose to follow their doctrine, are effected by it. At the moment that is not the case. When the RCC minds its own business and does not insist that it's doctrine intrude upon the lives of non Catholics, I will cease criticising.

I certainly wouldn't ask you to respect it, and it seems you certainly don't want to understand it... which means you may find I criticise your criticism from time to time I'm afraid.

Absolam

Deleted User wrote: »

The only thing that we can infer from the number of seizures is the number of seizures.
I hope this helps.

Not really; I already said I wasn't inferring anything from the number of seizures, and it was clear you wouldn't. But that wasn't the question, so I'm puzzled as to why you'd hope it helps.

What do you think, is there a substantive reason to think the number of abortions by illegally imported pills is a statistically significant contributor to the drop in rates of abortions on Irish women in other jurisdictions, or would you say such a notion is speculative?

silverharp

Absolam wrote: »

Apparently in April 2015 Customs were already intercepting parcel motel deliveries, so it seems the Irish Times were about six months late letting that particular cat out of the bag...

I assume one can just hop on a train to Newry and pick it up there? it looks like it is just internet and pin driven.

One eyed Jack

Cabaal wrote: »

Numbers are down due greater sex education (no thanks to catholic church), better access to condoms (no thanks to catholic church) and more availability to the morning after pill etc (again, no thanks to catholic church).

As sex education improves, numbers go down. If ignorance grows so do unplanned pregnancy's, this is supported by the many states in the USA who don't have proper sex ed programs in schools. (don't have sex is not a valid sex ed program!)

Now the drop in numbers is very much a good thing for everyone, it puts less stress on women and couples, our health care and social system. That however does not mean that better access in Ireland to abortion services should not be granted.

At the end of the day we continue to fail women in a number of different situations, this can't be ignored and if you choose to ignore this they it shows a lack of care for the health and well being of women and couples in general.

I think you're actually over-estimating the quality of sex education in Ireland tbh in order to support that point. Suffice to say, it's poor, it's very, very poor:

Sex ed in Ireland: ‘It’s all disease, risk and crisis pregnancy’

(Now I could go and get actual statistics and reports if you need 'em, but we're really not that far off "abstinence = good, sex = bad" than you might think we are)

You'd also be ignoring the fact that our increasing birth rate is the envy of Europe, which overall has a declining birth rate:

Ireland's birth rate continues to rise in baby boom as rates in most countries fall

Baby boom hits Ireland as we top the European birth rate

Ireland has highest birth rate in the EU

(again, I can pull up the reports if you need 'em)


I would say it's down to attitudes to abortion are changing, but not in the way that you might actually think. Abortion is still a taboo subject, but attitudes towards unmarried parenting and single parenthood, coupled with the supports that are now available to parents and children (they're not great tbh, but they're better than they were historically speaking at least), means that the fear for many women of becoming a parent with no support just isn't what it used to be.

The rest of your post though I do agree with, but I wouldn't argue for it on the basis of the report that was published recently, as that report really doesn't tell us much at all with regard to the issue of abortion in Ireland and doesn't really offer any support for it's necessity if you were to view the report in a wider context.

frostyjacks

silverharp wrote: »

it looks like there are ways of importing the pills in a way that customs wouldn't find out
http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/emily-s-story-an-illegal-abortion-in-ireland-1.2376568

What a grotesque story. I hope justice catches up with her in some shape or form. Why on earth did she get pregnant if she didn't want to have a baby?

Delirium

frostyjacks wrote: »

What a grotesque story. I hope justice catches up with her in some shape or form. Why on earth did she get pregnant if she didn't want to have a baby?

from the article:

Emily tells how, when she found out that she was “two to three weeks” pregnant last year, there was never any question but that she would terminate.

That would suggest that she didn't become pregnant deliberately.

Absolam

Absolam wrote: »

Not really; I already said I wasn't inferring anything from the number of seizures, and it was clear you wouldn't. But that wasn't the question, so I'm puzzled as to why you'd hope it helps.

.

Absolam wrote: »

That would suggest that the drop in abortion rates for Irish women in other countries probably isn't attributable to the sudden realisation that some people may be successful in importing abortion pills (especially since Customs seized approx. 1000 abortion pills in 2014, a number that was double the previous year), but that abortion incidence is simply dropping for the same reasons as it is dropping everywhere else.

Can you expand on why you think that the number of pills seized is especially relevant to the preceding sentence?

Especially knowing as you do now, that the number of seized pills is an absolutely woeful metric to try to infer number of attempted deliveries, or number of successful deliveries.

Couldn't I equally suggest (without any further logic or support) that the doubling of the the number of pills seized over the course of a year, given that there was no distinct, visible or remarked change in detection policies, suggests that there must have been also a large increase in the number of attempts and possibly successful attempts to the country?

Absolam wrote: »

What do you think, is there a substantive reason to think the number of abortions by illegally imported pills is a statistically significant contributor to the drop in rates of abortions on Irish women in other jurisdictions, or would you say such a notion is speculative?

This is a poor attempt to shift the burden of proof.

As a way of humoring you, I would suggest you might add up the street value of all of the drugs seized at Irish borders in the past year, and then check out a wide variety of estimated worth of the drugs trade within Ireland.

UK statistics are probably more available if you'd prefer. I asked you this earlier, but it seems you missed it;

Deleted User wrote: »

You have arbitrarily offered 'not likely' as the probability of a Customs' 'find rate' of 10%. Why?

I wonder if you think that Irish Customs' officials are orders of magnitude more effective at locating and seizing the Abortion Pills than other illicit drugs

Absolam

silverharp wrote: »

I assume one can just hop on a train to Newry and pick it up there? it looks like it is just internet and pin driven.

I'd assume one could if there were a drop-off point one could collect from there, that just wasn't a way of importing the pills in a way that customs wouldn't find out mentioned in the story you linked.

Cabaal

frostyjacks wrote: »

What a grotesque story. I hope justice catches up with her in some shape or form. Why on earth did she get pregnant if she didn't want to have a baby?

Both you and I know that our legal system won't touch her, they are scared as hell of opening a can of worms on this subject in Ireland.

Even Pro Life groups wouldn't want to see her prosecuted as they also know it'll open a big can of worms that could very likely end up pushing the issue to a vote once and for all (something they fear).

Kiwi in IE

Absolam wrote: »

I am, though I would draw a distinction between that subject and the one you commented on; the Church's stance on contraception.

The Church's stance on contraception is not tied in with its stance on reproduction and fertility in general?

Absolam wrote: »

I certainly wouldn't ask you to respect it, and it seems you certainly don't want to understand it... which means you may find I criticise your criticism from time to time I'm afraid.

Understand what Absolam? The churches stance on contraception, which is tied into their stance on reproduction and relationships, which has resulted in the Magdalene launderies, symphysiotomies, mother and baby homes, babies being sold to the highest bidder, unsaleable babies being left to die of neglect and then thrown into a mass pit, families having absurd numbers of children whether they could afford to feed them or not, women spending the entirety of their fertile years in a constant state of breeding, divorce laws, the inability to rid yourself of an abusive spouse, contraception being banned, abortion being banned? How is one to understand all that outside of the context of misogyny? No matter how the church like to dress it up with sugary coatings such as "God's gift of life", it is nothing only misogyny.

Loafing Oaf

Cabaal wrote: »

Both you and I know that our legal system won't touch her, they are scared as hell of opening a can of worms on this subject in Ireland.

Even Pro Life groups wouldn't want to see her prosecuted as they also know it'll open a big can of worms that could very likely end up pushing the issue to a vote once and for all (something they fear).

Anyway I assume Kitty is entitled to protect her source so I can't see how she would be identified...

silverharp

Absolam wrote: »

I'd assume one could if there were a drop-off point one could collect from there, that just wasn't a way of importing the pills in a way that customs wouldn't find out mentioned in the story you linked.

it just the usual cat and mouse , if a particular way is known to be risky people will find another avenue . Picking a Spar or whatnot over the border as a drop off point will become known after a time and here the customs have no power.
So it appears currently that anyone who wants access to them can get them even if by a convoluted route

Cabaal

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Anyway I assume Kitty is entitled to protect her source so I can't see how she would be identified...

Well of course, there is that.
But lets speculate that her flatmate, friend, family member finds out and reports her.

She wouldn't be going to jail or getting a sentence, its too much of a powder-cake.

Absolam

Deleted User wrote: »

Can you expand on why you think that the number of pills seized is especially relevant to the preceding sentence?
Especially knowing as you do now, that the number of seized pills is an absolutely woeful metric to try to infer number of attempted deliveries, or number of successful deliveries.

Because it demonstrates that the realisation that some people may be successful in importing abortion pills wasn't all that sudden given that Customs were already intercepting increasing packages. Thought that was clear, sorry.

Deleted User wrote: »

Couldn't I equally suggest (without any further logic or support) that the doubling of the the number of pills seized over the course of a year, given that there was no distinct, visible or remarked change in detection policies, suggests that there must have been also a large increase in the number of attempts and possibly successful attempts to the country?

You certainly could, but I think you know I wouldn't accept that such a suggestion would be a substantive reason to think the number of abortions by illegally imported pills is a statistically significant contributor to the drop in rates of abortions on Irish women in other jurisdictions. In fairness, you'd probably agree yourself...

Deleted User wrote: »

This is a poor attempt to shift the burden of proof.

Well, hardly... it was the starting point, so hardly an attempt to shift the burden of proof and more still asking for proof... if in fact you do think the notion has merit.

Deleted User wrote: »

As a way of humoring you, I would suggest you might add up the street value of all of the drugs seized at Irish borders in the past year, and then check out a wide variety of estimated worth of the drugs trade within Ireland.

That wouldn't humour me at all! Nor am I inclined to think there's any correlation between illegally importing abortion drugs for personal use and illegally importing recreational drugs for resale, so you'll have to try harder

Deleted User wrote: »

UK statistics are probably more available if you'd prefer. I asked you this earlier, but it seems you missed it; I wonder if you think that Irish Customs' officials are orders of magnitude more effective at locating and seizing the Abortion Pills than other illicit drugs

I did miss it, but I'm not looking to speculate about what they might be good at seizing; after all you've said what they seize is not indicative anyway, didn't you? Until we have substantive information about what actually does get through and is used, we have no reason to think that it significantly affects the statistics on Irish women having abortions, do we?

robdonn

Absolam wrote: »

That would suggest that the drop in abortion rates for Irish women in other countries probably isn't attributable to the sudden realisation that some people may be successful in importing abortion pills (especially since Customs seized approx. 1000 abortion pills in 2014, a number that was double the previous year), but that abortion incidence is simply dropping for the same reasons as it is dropping everywhere else.

The data that you have provided shows that the abortion incidence is dropping regionally, but we do not know if it is dropping in Ireland.

Although the metric used in the The Guttmacher Institute study (which we have already discussed in this thread) to measure the abortion incidence in Ireland includes those who travel to the UK for abortions that give a ROI address, "Dr Gilda Sedgh of the Guttmacher Institute in New York who led the study published in the Lancet Journal told the Irish Independent the rate of four abortions per 1,000 women of child bearing age would not stand up to scrutiny. It is based on figures showing around 4,000 women from the Republic have abortions in the UK annually."

She said it is unclear how many women are having medical abortions by buying drugs over the internet.

"We also do not know how many women are really travelling to England or elsewhere and not going on record on their address."

The official abortion rate for northern European countries is 18 per 1,000 women but it is not possible to say what the real picture in Ireland is.

The study found that generally the abortion rate in countries where abortion is banned or restricted is on average the same as that in countries where it is available on demand.

Major abortion study claims Ireland still under-estimating true number

So we have no idea if the abortion incidence in Ireland "is simply dropping for the same reasons as it is dropping everywhere else" because we don't know what the abortion incidence is or if it is actually dropping at all.

@Absolam

@Absolam

Is there anything remaining for me to respond to there? You've done that old trick of yours again. You know the one you do.

robdonn

Absolam wrote: »

[...] we have no reason to think that it significantly affects the statistics on Irish women having abortions, do we?

And we have no reason to think it doesn't. If there were no examples of people trying to import them then maybe you would be right, but 60 importations being caught with over a 1000 pills (which could have provided abortions to about a third of the number of women who travelled to the UK and gave an Irish address) means that there is a demand for them, people are in fact purchasing them and enough accounts of people using them indicate that some of them are getting through to Ireland or to Irish women via one method or another.

These facts indicate that the statistics on Irish women having abortions are influenced by importation of abortion pills, and without knowing how many are making it through, make the currently available statistics simply unreliable.

Every indication we have points to the number of Irish women having abortions is probably higher than records account for and any judgement on the significance of abortion pills influence in that number is simply guess work.

frostyjacks

Cabaal wrote: »

Well of course, there is that.
But lets speculate that her flatmate, friend, family member finds out and reports her.

She wouldn't be going to jail or getting a sentence, its too much of a powder-cake.

I agree, she probably won't get the jail time she deserves, but as with the recent case in the north I would still expect her to be prosecuted and convicted. We can't live in a society where people pick and choose which laws they want to obey.

robdonn

frostyjacks wrote: »

Cabaal wrote: »

Well of course, there is that.
But lets speculate that her flatmate, friend, family member finds out and reports her.

She wouldn't be going to jail or getting a sentence, its too much of a powder-cake.

I agree, she probably won't get the jail time she deserves, but as with the recent case in the north I would still expect her to be prosecuted and convicted. We can't live in a society where people pick and choose which laws they want to obey.

We also can't live in a society where the laws do not reflect the opinions of the people.

Most people in Ireland want abortion decriminalised - new poll

lazygal

frostyjacks wrote: »

I agree, she probably won't get the jail time she deserves, but as with the recent case in the north I would still expect her to be prosecuted and convicted. We can't live in a society where people pick and choose which laws they want to obey.

Should she serve 14 years for taking the abortion pill? And be added to The List?

robdonn

Destroyed women, abandoned babies: why Ireland must move forward on abortion

Not sure if this was shared before - Interesting that the URL seems to indicate that the title was originally on the lines of "Why does Ireland hate women?"

One eyed Jack

robdonn wrote: »

These facts indicate that the statistics on Irish women having abortions are influenced by importation of abortion pills, and without knowing how many are making it through, make the currently available statistics simply unreliable.

Well if the statistics are unreliable, we really can't say at all that the statistics on Irish women having abortions are influenced by the importation of abortion pills? We'd only be guessing, due to the lack of factual data!

robdonn wrote: »

Every indication we have points to the number of Irish women having abortions is probably higher than records account for and any judgement on the significance of abortion pills influence in that number is simply guess work.

Soooo, you're admonishing people for their guesswork, but your guesswork is ok?

Come on now, if that's not the definition of double standards...