EPA says Volkswagen cheated on emissions with 482,000 diesel cars

Joe 90

josip wrote: »

Brilliant, so many emotional conflicts in one sentence that the average family man deals with on a regular basis.

My wife is tickety-boo at filling up occasionally with diesel at Enfield for her daily trips from Dublin to the midlands. But I would not be willing to tell her that with an EV that her precious midweek time with the kids will be reduced by at least an hour.

Also, would she be able to keep up 120kph all the way in an EV at the moment? A few weeks ago a (10.1) Leaf in front of us at Cherrywood swapped lanes and used its GTI-like performance to make it through a red. 4 minutes later our (8.3) oil burner passed it pottering along the M50 doing around 100 in a 120 zone. Does the range drop off markedly above 100 or summat?

It'll take a lot of years for EVs to replace the entrenched diesel market here in Ireland.

http://www.independent.ie/life/motoring/car-news/revealed-secondhand-cars-people-want-most-and-the-ones-that-are-shifting-the-quickest-34723597.html

Power

The power required to overcome the aerodynamic drag is given by:
Note that the power needed to push an object through a fluid increases as the cube of the velocity. A car cruising on a highway at 50 mph (80 km/h) may require only 10 horsepower (7.5 kW) to overcome air drag, but that same car at 100 mph (160 km/h) requires 80 hp (60 kW). With a doubling of speed the drag (force) quadruples per the formula. Exerting four times the force over a fixed distance produces four times as much work. At twice the speed the work (resulting in displacement over a fixed distance) is done twice as fast. Since power is the rate of doing work, four times the work done in half the time requires eight times the power.

grogi

Joe 90 wrote: »

Power

The power required to overcome the aerodynamic drag is given by:
Note that the power needed to push an object through a fluid increases as the cube of the velocity. A car cruising on a highway at 50 mph (80 km/h) may require only 10 horsepower (7.5 kW) to overcome air drag, but that same car at 100 mph (160 km/h) requires 80 hp (60 kW). With a doubling of speed the drag (force) quadruples per the formula. Exerting four times the force over a fixed distance produces four times as much work. At twice the speed the work (resulting in displacement over a fixed distance) is done twice as fast. Since power is the rate of doing work, four times the work done in half the time requires eight times the power.

You're right, but the phrasing of your final conclusion might be misleading.

When travelling at twice the speed one needs ~8 times more power. But the travel will take half the time - thus only (sic!) 4 times more energy will be required to do the same trip.

We also need to remember that at lower speeds the aerodynamic drag lowers significantly and other forces prevail (like surface friction, gravitational drag /that's my own term - the force stopping you from climbing a hill/ etc) - so with reducing the speed the benefits of it are reduced and requirement for energy becomes more less constant.

This number comes mostly from thin air - but I think going slower than 60-70kmh does not give any significant range benefits.

josip

grogi wrote: »

This number comes mostly from thin air - but I think going slower than 60-70kmh does not give any significant range benefits.

And in thicker air would that speed be higher or lower than 60-70?

Joe 90

josip wrote: »

And in thicker air would that speed be higher or lower than 60-70?

In fact, thicker and thinner air is allowed for when looking at the performance of aircraft. It is usually expressed as density altitude.

pippip

Suzuki brought into it.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0518/789177-suzuki-motor/

Markcheese

josip wrote:

It'll take a lot of years for EVs to replace the entrenched diesel market here in Ireland.

It'd take about 1 budget.... diesel sales went through the roof post 2008, they could go through the floor as quick..
Plus most car makers arent working on new diesel engines to pass future euro seven emmissions regs (you could argue they dont pass euro 6 either) .
So they wont be offering new cars with diesel engines... at all,

josip

Markcheese wrote: »

It'd take about 1 budget.... diesel sales went through the roof post 2008, they could go through the floor as quick..
Plus most car makers arent working on new diesel engines to pass future euro seven emmissions regs (you could argue they dont pass euro 6 either) .
So they wont be offering new cars with diesel engines... at all,

I don't disagree with anything above but the current charging network couldn't possibly support a mass take off of EVs.
Switching from petrol to diesel was relatively easy as the infrastructure was already in place.
So much so, that fuel stations still have twice as many petrol pumps as diesel pumps, the already installed capacity for diesel refueling was more than adequate.
It's easy for legislation to affect the type of new unit an individual buys. It's less easy for legislation to bring about massive infrastructural change.

stesaurus

josip wrote: »

I don't disagree with anything above but the current charging network couldn't possibly support a mass take off of EVs.
Switching from petrol to diesel was relatively easy as the infrastructure was already in place.
So much so, that fuel stations still have twice as many petrol pumps as diesel pumps, the already installed capacity for diesel refueling was more than adequate.
It's easy for legislation to affect the type of new unit an individual buys. It's less easy for legislation to bring about massive infrastructural change.

The public charging infrastructure could be sorted out with ease if and a big if the government backed it. Pass legislation to speed up and help with obtaining permissions to install wherever ESB seems viable. Then just provide funding. Fast chargers are not that expensive. They could easily double/triple the infrastructure over a short time frame if the government stepped up.
Once take up starts reaching a decent level then the infrastructure will pay for itself and be a nice profitable business for ESB or whoever takes over the network.

josip

s.welstead wrote: »

The public charging infrastructure could be sorted out with ease if and a big if the government backed it. Pass legislation to speed up and help with obtaining permissions to install wherever ESB seems viable. Then just provide funding. Fast chargers are not that expensive. They could easily double/triple the infrastructure over a short time frame if the government stepped up.
Once take up starts reaching a decent level then the infrastructure will pay for itself and be a nice profitable business for ESB or whoever takes over the network.

I think you're simplifying the scale of the undertaking.
For EV to replace ICE as the primary means of propulsion would require as many geographic charging points as current fuel (filling) stations.

Assuming it takes 20 minutes for a fast charge and 4 minutes for a refuel means that stations would need 5 times the number of chargers and operational (not total) space.

Assuming the range gained from a fast charge increases to 300km at some stage in the future and the range from a full tank of diesel remains the same (900km for me), then you have to multiply the above 5 time by a further 3, so you'd need 15 times the number of charging points as you currently have fuel pumps.

The above could be reduced with home charging but my understanding on this is that home charging is not being encouraged by the ESB due to concerns about the capacity of the local infrastructure. I'd appreciate confirmation/correction of this from someone in the know.

I'd be happy to have large holes in the above pointed out, but I just don't think this change will happen overnight or even in 5 years just because a minister says so. 10 years maybe.

FortySeven

What about demand of electricity? Is our generating capacity and distribution network up to the task of that kind of growth in EV?

If it is anything like any other of our utilities it is surely operating close to breaking point as it is?

samih

josip wrote: »

...home charging is not being encouraged by the ESB due to concerns about the capacity of the local infrastructure. I'd appreciate confirmation/correction of this from someone in the know.

I'd be happy to have large holes in the above pointed out, but I just don't think this change will happen overnight or even in 5 years just because a minister says so. 10 years maybe.

The home charging is definitely encouraged as every new EV sold in Ireland comes with a free home charging point including the installation costs.

robtri

Just doing some maths
I have excluded ins, assuming same in both situations.
New polo 1.0 petrol
106g/km CO2

Costs €15,165
Road tax at current rate for 5 years €950
Servicing for five years €1,000
Fuel at €1.24 (70,000km over 5 years) €2517

Resale going by done deal on five year old polo is € 7,200

Overall cost of ownership €12,432


New Leaf xe 24kw €21,490
Road tax at current rate for 5 years €600
Servicing for 5 years from Nissan €667.80
Electricity cost for 70,00km at 10.19c night saver, as per electric Ireland. €1070
Resale going by done deal on five year old leaf is €9,100

Overall cost of ownership €14,727.80

josip

samih wrote: »

The home charging is definitely encouraged as every new EV sold in Ireland comes with a free home charging point including the installation costs.

What's the latest on that?
The ESB only committed to being free for the first 2,000

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/motors/esb-electric-car-price-plans-jolt-owners-anger-1.2419590

Which they expected to reach in April?

After which would they charge the €900 price they valued it at?

BoatMad

josip wrote: »

Brilliant, so many emotional conflicts in one sentence that the average family man deals with on a regular basis.

My wife is tickety-boo at filling up occasionally with diesel at Enfield for her daily trips from Dublin to the midlands. But I would not be willing to tell her that with an EV that her precious midweek time with the kids will be reduced by at least an hour.

Also, would she be able to keep up 120kph all the way in an EV at the moment? A few weeks ago a (10.1) Leaf in front of us at Cherrywood swapped lanes and used its GTI-like performance to make it through a red. 4 minutes later our (8.3) oil burner passed it pottering along the M50 doing around 100 in a 120 zone. Does the range drop off markedly above 100 or summat?

It'll take a lot of years for EVs to replace the entrenched diesel market here in Ireland.

http://www.independent.ie/life/motoring/car-news/revealed-secondhand-cars-people-want-most-and-the-ones-that-are-shifting-the-quickest-34723597.html

the Leaf is optimised for range at around 100 kmph , which is why you will see most people in them driving at that speed. The same is true for my diesel crew cab, which eats diesel over 100kmph

I should dispel some myths, in a modern leaf for example, your wife would have 150-160 KM at 100kmph , she can recharge that range in typically 20-25 minutes , Thats about twice as long as the delay in a busy petrol station , and about the time it takes to take a toilet break and drink a cup of coffee.

I fail to see the issue with a 20 minutes break every 120 km or so

It'll take a lot of years for EVs to replace the entrenched diesel market here in Ireland.

Not at all, increasing taxes on dirty diesels, incentives for EVs, longer range models now only 2 years away, will see a huge swing to EVs

this quarter past , 3 of every 4 cars sold in Norway was a EV !!

BoatMad

josip wrote: »

What's the latest on that?
The ESB only committed to being free for the first 2,000

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/motors/esb-electric-car-price-plans-jolt-owners-anger-1.2419590

Which they expected to reach in April?

After which would they charge the €900 price they valued it at?

The expectation in the free offer will continue

having said that a 16 A EVSE ( its not really a charger) is now retailing at 300 euros plus installation ,

Sabre Man

robtri wrote: »

Just doing some maths
I have excluded ins, assuming same in both situations.
New polo 1.0 petrol
106g/km CO2

Costs €15,165
Road tax at current rate for 5 years €950
Servicing for five years €1,000
Fuel at €1.24 (70,000km over 5 years) €2517

Resale going by done deal on five year old polo is € 7,200

Overall cost of ownership €12,432


New Leaf xe 24kw €21,490
Road tax at current rate for 5 years €600
Servicing for 5 years from Nissan €667.80
Electricity cost for 70,00km at 10.19c night saver, as per electric Ireland. €1070
Resale going by done deal on five year old leaf is €9,100

Overall cost of ownership €14,727.80

Wouldn't the Leaf be quite a bit larger than a Polo?

BoatMad

Sabre Man wrote: »

Wouldn't the Leaf be quite a bit larger than a Polo?

the polo is considerably smaller and far less well specced then a leaf

night rate electricity is easily available at 7.65 cents on any deal and the last time I looked at a filling station petrol was 1.28 a litre

not to mention that the 1 litre polo struggles to maintain speed and has to var worked through the gears , I test drove one before I bought the leaf

you need to compare cars of similar specs and sizes, for example a Nissan Pulsar

grogi

BoatMad wrote: »

the Leaf is optimised for range at around 100 kmph , which is why you will see most people in them driving at that speed. The same is true for my diesel crew cab, which eats diesel over 100kmph

It is hard to speak about optimization at that context... Will it be less energy efficient if you travel slower?

I fail to see the issue with a 20 minutes break every 120 km or so

Don't push it, because you are getting opposite effect. Twisting the reality won't do any good.

I personally did trips of ~1000km/10hours with one stop only for refuelling and short rest without much of a headache (but in a quiet Merc to be honest). In Fabia I needed more frequent stops.

I guess it is safe to say that most people will be fine in driving 3-4 hours straight. If the trip is longer, stop every 2-3 hours is desirable. Compare that with stops that one NEED to make in a Leaf.

this quarter past , 3 of every 4 cars sold in Norway was a EV !!

Because it is even more expensive to buy a keep ICE car there (Note costs ~ €20k, marginally less than Leaf), while EV are signifially cheaper to maintain (no tolls and IIRC no motor-tax). Plus the charging infrastructure is miles ahead - there are charging points around every second corner.

stesaurus

josip wrote: »

I think you're simplifying the scale of the undertaking.
For EV to replace ICE as the primary means of propulsion would require as many geographic charging points as current fuel (filling) stations.

I wasn't thinking an overnight majority switch to EV from Ice. I just meant enough numbers to support a viable network without need for incentives and government help. We could easily get there within 3-5 years. It is pretty simple but needs the government to add a few incentives, remove a few planning roadblocks and some funding in the short term. After that we'd be paying for the network as it won't be free by then.

josip wrote: »

Assuming it takes 20 minutes for a fast charge and 4 minutes for a refuel means that stations would need 5 times the number of chargers and operational (not total) space.

20 Minutes is very optimistic. It will definitely be longer on larger batteries, especially in winter.

josip wrote: »

Assuming the range gained from a fast charge increases to 300km at some stage in the future and the range from a full tank of diesel remains the same (900km for me), then you have to multiply the above 5 time by a further 3, so you'd need 15 times the number of charging points as you currently have fuel pumps.

How many people brim their cars every time? Do you need to drive 900km without stopping??? I never used to do that, I'd put in a set amount on a weekly basis and have occasional top ups. With an EV i have my charge at home and an occasional top up when going outside my range. Absolutely no need for 15 times charge points. It's just a different usage pattern.
You're way over estimating the number of locations needed for a viable network. Having an EV is different to an Ice. You have in essence a petrol station at home so by and large you don't need the infrastructure. So replacing like for like is not needed.
Most journeys are well within current EV limits and will only increase with larger capacity batteries. That means you only need the infrastructure for longer distances.

josip wrote: »

The above could be reduced with home charging but my understanding on this is that home charging is not being encouraged by the ESB due to concerns about the capacity of the local infrastructure. I'd appreciate confirmation/correction of this from someone in the know.

Home charging in the short term is definitely being encourage, the future who knows. A few new estate builds have had chargepoints built in as part of their plans. ESB give a free home charger with every new purchase.
OK there is a bit of a limit in that if numbers increased massively then there would be pressure on local grid networks but that shouldn't be a reason to curtail. Things will have to be upgraded. Our energy usage patterns are only ever going in one direction so sooner or later we'd have to start thinking of increased capacity anyway. Maybe a massive switchover to 3 phase?

josip wrote: »

I'd be happy to have large holes in the above pointed out, but I just don't think this change will happen overnight or even in 5 years just because a minister says so. 10 years maybe.

I tried my best to pick a few!!!

josip

BoatMad wrote: »

the Leaf is optimised for range at around 100 kmph , which is why you will see most people in them driving at that speed. The same is true for my diesel crew cab, which eats diesel over 100kmph

I should dispel some myths, in a modern leaf for example, your wife would have 150-160 KM at 100kmph , she can recharge that range in typically 20-25 minutes , Thats about twice as long as the delay in a busy petrol station , and about the time it takes to take a toilet break and drink a cup of coffee.

and if you compare like for like?

You've compared an EV family car with a diesel crew cab.
You've compared the time taken to charge at a completely free EV charging point with a busy petrol station

robtri

BoatMad wrote: »

the polo is considerably smaller and far less well specced then a leaf

night rate electricity is easily available at 7.65 cents on any deal and the last time I looked at a filling station petrol was 1.28 a litre

not to mention that the 1 litre polo struggles to maintain speed and has to var worked through the gears , I test drove one before I bought the leaf

you need to compare cars of similar specs and sizes, for example a Nissan Pulsar

cant use a pulsar as no 2011 pulsar available for price comparison.
petrol price is from filling up at weekend in local station here, night rate is standard rate from Electric Ireland INC VAT... https://www.electricireland.ie/news-media/article/news/2014/05/21/all-you-need-to-know-about-the-nightsaver-meter

spec... entry level model used on both cars...

after 5 years... risk of battery needing replacement is an ongoing concern, especially at €4000.


so lets try again with say a golf 1.2TSI..

Just doing some maths
I have excluded ins, assuming same in both situations.
Costs €19,995
Road tax at current rate for 5 years €1,000
Servicing for five years €1,000
Fuel at €1.24 (70,000km over 5 years) €2604

Resale going by done deal on five year old golf is € 10,900

Overall cost of ownership €13,699


New Leaf xe 24kw €21,490
Road tax at current rate for 5 years €600
Servicing for 5 years from Nissan €667.80
Electricity cost for 70,00km at 10.19c night saver, as per electric Ireland. €1070
Resale going by done deal on five year old leaf is €9,100

Overall cost of ownership €14,727.80

samih

robtri wrote: »

Just doing some maths
I have excluded ins, assuming same in both situations.
Costs 19,995
Road tax at current rate for 5 years 1,000
Servicing for five years 1,000
Fuel at 1.24 (70,000km over 5 years) 2604

Resale going by done deal on five year old golf is 10,900

Overall cost of ownership 13,699


New Leaf xe 24kw 21,490
Road tax at current rate for 5 years 600
Servicing for 5 years from Nissan 667.80
Electricity cost for 70,00km at 10.19c night saver, as per electric Ireland. 1070
Resale going by done deal on five year old leaf is 9,100

Overall cost of ownership 14,727.80

Where did you get the fuel figure for the Golf. According to your calculations Golf averages 3 l/100km (= 100 mpg). Surely that's not reasonable estimation. The correct value should probably be around 6 l/100km which results a fuel cost of 5208. So it's 16303 vs 14727 for LEAF. If you do a bigger mileage per year, e.g. 25k the savings will be more.

samih

In my case the LEAF covers 25k km a year. If I charged it exclusively at home with my current night time electricity rate of 7.9 c/kWh inc VAT I would be using 0.16 kWh/km (actual average figure) x 0.08 EUR/kWh x 25000km x 1.1 (charger inefficiency) = 352 EUR per year. Over 5 years that would be 1760 EUR. Currently the public charging is free so in reality I have probably used around 100 less than that. However, free usage of public chargers probably won't last forever so no point basing calculations on that.

Driving a Golf for 125k at 6 l/100km would cost 9375 EUR in fuel if petrol stays at 1.25 a liter. Even if the Leaf's battery needed replacement after 5 years EV would end up costing less than Golf, I think.

conzy

robtri should work in marketing. great at skewing "facts" and figure to suit himself :pac:

robtri

samih wrote: »

Where did you get the fuel figure for the Golf. According to your calculations Golf averages 3 l/100km (= 100 mpg). Surely that's not reasonable estimation. The correct value should probably be around 6 l/100km which results a fuel cost of 5208. So it's 16303 vs 14727 for LEAF. If you do a bigger mileage per year, e.g. 25k the savings will be more.

http://www.cbg.ie/new-cars-2016/family-hatch/volkswagen-golf-hatchback/1.2-tsi-85hp-trendline

BoatMad

robtri wrote: »

http://www.cbg.ie/new-cars-2016/family-hatch/volkswagen-golf-hatchback/1.2-tsi-85hp-trendline

Real life fuel figures for most new 1.6 l diesels are about the same averaging around 5-6l per 100km over a variety of driving uses. Published figures are junk and based on a completely discredited NEDC test ( the same test that gives the leaf 250 km range -hah)

grogi

Sabre Man wrote: »

Wouldn't the Leaf be quite a bit larger than a Polo?

And petrol cost seems a bit off...

At 5l/100km (optimistic) it will burn 5*700l=3500|. That gives €4340...

September1

I think oldest LEAFs from 2011 have costed 30k https://www.esb.ie/electric-cars/electric-car-news-and-events/electric-car-press-releases/first-nissan-leaf-electric-car-customer.jsp unlike ones that are now sold for much less. It gives a wrong message about real depreciation.

Leonard Hofstadter

If I was calculating fuel costs for a 1.2 TSI Golf I'd be working on the basis of it doing 40 mpg....

That said, you can't put a price on the convenience of not ever having to worry about running out of charge and taking half the day to get the car going again. That's not taking anything away from the Leaf - if you can make it fit around your lifestyle, then fair play and enjoy the savings and not spewing toxic gases everywhere! For the rest of us, though, petrol or diesel will continue to make far more sense.

samih

September1 wrote: »

I think oldest LEAFs from 2011 have costed 30k https://www.esb.ie/electric-cars/electric-car-news-and-events/electric-car-press-releases/first-nissan-leaf-electric-car-customer.jsp unlike ones that are now sold for much less. It gives a wrong message about real depreciation.

That is true and unfortunately for current owners (but great for future buyers) the advances in battery technology will result in more durable batteries with more range at less and less money per kWh depressing the used prices of older cars more so than with other types of cars. Hence current crop of BEVs will probably depreciate at greater range than other vehicles.

It's bit like mobiles phones a few years ago, i.e. something considerably better is always around corner for same/less money. However, I think we are not many years from the moment when we have large enough batteries to cover even the occasional long trips without time penalty compared to other cars. When that happens I suggest that the non-BEVs will be hit with savage depreciation.

The Dutch/Norwegian target of 2025 to ban the petrol/diesel cars looks very doable at this stage. In Norway, even today you would have to be a "fossil" not to buy a Tesla Model S instead of one of conventional luxury sedans.