EV Cost Per 162,000 Kms V 55 MPG Diesel.

Some interesting calculations.

Cost to drive 162,000 in the Leaf V 55 mpg diesel at my current consumption of 17.4 Kwh over 20,000 Kms

To calculate the consumption over 162,000 Kms of 17.4 Kwh/100 Kms you have to find how many 100's are in 162,000 and that = 1,620 then multiply that by 17.4 = 28,188 (your consumption in Kwh).

Then multiply your electricity cost (usually night rate) by the 28,188 so in my case if I pay 8 cent per Kwh on night and did all my charging at night it would cost 0.08 x 28,188 = €2,255 Euro's.

Now to put this in to context , I was paying more than that for a years driving in the Prius at 60 mpg , so what do you think about that ?

Anyway the heading was compared to a 55 mpg diesel, so how many can actually achieve this per tank calculated at the pump ? ( no trip readings please which don't give an accurate indication of your overall consumption ) Ideally never reset the trip computer to see what you get (on the motorway) or in town) because it's the average that counts.

Anyway 162,000 @ 55 mpg is 19.47 Kms per litre divide this into 162,000 = 8,320 Litres of diesel needed multiply by the cost per litre about 1.15 per litre = €9,560 Euro's !

Free public charging can dramatically cut the cost of EV use even if I had done all my 20,000 so far this year on night rate leccy it would have cost me about 300 Euro's including the consumption of the charger which is 85% efficient, I have got a lot of free Kwh from the public charge points.

The plan is to start billing for the KWH form public charge points sometime in 2016.

I'm sure you won't manage to drive all 162,000 on night rate leccy in the current Gen electrics but as EV batteries get larger you probably could get away with most of your charging on night rate because you'll have a larger battery to store this energy. These lager 150-200 mile batteries are just a little over 3 years away.

If you had no night meter installed and all your leccy was at peak rate then this would double costing 4,400 Euro's . This is based on my efficiency so far of 17.4 Kwh per 100 kms recorded my Nissan Motor Co in Japan using carwings. 17.4 Kwh/100 Kms isn't driving slow either but not breaking many speed limits either but a good real life demonstration and far better than your Euro NEDC laboratory simulated emissions/mpg Test !

You stand to save far more if fuel prices go up or your car gets less than 55 mpg over this 162,000 Kms which not many cars can.

If your car averages 50 mpg then you pay 10,500 Euro's, so from 55-50 mpg over 162,000 you pay 1000 more.

Add servicing savings, no major servicing required, the biggest service in a Leaf for instance would be a coolant change after 162,000 odd Kms.

Factor motor tax savings V your old car.

No oil and filters over it's life to dispose of. And the battery should still be in very good condition as recent evidence suggests the 132 (updated leaf) after 160,000 Kms loosing less than 10% capacity.

oinkely

I'd have one tomorrow if I could afford one!

those calculations kind of suggest that I can't afford not to have one!

I read these threads with great interest and am sold on the electric concept. Can't justify changing at the moment as the car that it will replace is a 13 year old Renault scenic that just refuses to break. It lashes through petrol at an alarming rate but aside from that costs almost nothing to run.

oinkely

oinkely wrote: »

I'd have one tomorrow if I could afford one!

those calculations kind of suggest that I can't afford not to have one!

I read these threads with great interest and am sold on the electric concept. Can't justify changing at the moment as the car that it will replace is a 13 year old Renault scenic that just refuses to break. It lashes through petrol at an alarming rate but aside from that costs almost nothing to run.

I'm leasing mine 450 PM 25,000 Kms per year 5k trade in.

Looks like I'll go over my mileage allowance but they will write off some of it depends how bad they want my money again. I'm also not limited to Nissan, in 2018 there will be more EV choice.

If you do less miles you pay less per month but the downside is the balloon at the end , however, if you don't intend to keep the car leasing is a pretty good choice and you can refinance the balloon if you do intend to keep it.

Maybe you could check out deals for 2016 on 141 SV and trade the Renault ?

NIMAN

Mad Lad, what would you estimate your monthly cost in total is then? Inc leccy?

Also, when you take a car on PCP, did you get any servicing deals? Or do you have to pay full price on them? Have you had a service done yet, as I'm curious as to what is involved in an EV service?

cros13

NIMAN wrote: »

what is involved in an EV service?

The normal Nissan Leaf service is annual or every 30,000km. Costs €100 and bar the 100,000km service (when the gearbox/motor lubricant gets replaced) is just a visual inspection and a tire rotation.

The service isn't "required" per se. But to keep up the warranty you have to have an inspection at least every 50,000km (that's Nissan's internal guide) or annually whichever comes first. 30,000km inspections are recommended.

BMW officially requires a service every 50,000km or two years (whichever comes first, in my case I'll hit 50,000km in the first year or so (I just passed 25,000km)) with the first three services covered by a €380 service plan that can be purchased anytime in the first three months of ownership. A more expensive €1000 plan adds the brake pads and wiper blades to the basic service plan.

Brake pads on an EV don't see a lot of wear due to regenerative braking. It's often the case that they last until your 100,000km service. Tires on the Leaf also last quite a while but on the i3 I'm wearing through them fairly quickly.

NIMAN

100 to look at your car and check the tyres, Nissan earn the money easily there!

I just think the 450 per month seems a lot. When you see all the car deals in the media none, other than the likes of BMW, are around that sort of money. Normally you'd see 149 to 249.

Understand of course that this figure depends a lot on deposit, term, apr etc

NIMAN

NIMAN wrote: »

Mad Lad, what would you estimate your monthly cost in total is then? Inc leccy?

Also, when you take a car on PCP, did you get any servicing deals? Or do you have to pay full price on them? Have you had a service done yet, as I'm curious as to what is involved in an EV service?

Well my monthly cost is hard to determine exactly because I work shifts and have to charge at peak rate during the day while working nights. But herself reckons about 40 Euro's on the bill. To drive 134 Kms per shift which is about 15 per month. I'd have to go to the roster to check exactly. But I have got a lot of free electricity from the public charge points.

Over my 20,000 Kms so far this year and based on my efficiency and if my charging were done at night it would have cost about 300 Euro's.

cros13

I've got an electricity monitor on the line to my charger. For the first 20,000km I used 1920kWh exactly on my main home charger with the remainder being mainly free public charging but also a bit of charging at my place in Tipp.

I paid 7.4 cents per kWh for that leccy which works out as €142.08.

I average about 15kWh on the i3 per 100km which means 100km costs circa €1.10. The Leaf averages just under 17kWh per 100km which work out about €1.26.

Because I moved to night meters on the properties in my account and moved a lot of use to the night rate hours using timers etc my electricity bill is actually down by 10 - 20%.

So better than free travel!

Leaf averages 17.4 for me but I don't drive slow.

Correction, 17.2 kWh/100 km.

caster

cros13 wrote: »

I average about 15kWh on the i3 per 100km which means 100km costs circa €1.10. The Leaf averages just under 17kWh per 100km which work out about €1.26.

!

Is your driving mostly in the city?

cros13

caster wrote: »

Is your driving mostly in the city?

Yup! That heavy regen does wonders.

caster

cros13 wrote: »

Yup! That heavy regen does wonders.

So as a result of regen, kWh/100 KM is actually better in city driving than rural i.e. the reverse of efficiency in an ICE car ?

Is there an ideal driving speed for electric cars (i.e. equiv of 85/90 kph for ICE)?

Slower the better for ev really, this way you can use as much coasting as possible, 40 mph is a great speed on back roads. You could Get over 160 Kms under these conditions in Summer.

Regen isn't efficient because you're effectively consuming energy to slow down , you would save far more energy by driving efficiently and coasting as much as possible but regen is nice to have when you need it.

Mountain and hilly terrain is where the real value of regen lies.

Regen is compensation for inefficient driving either way you loose.

oinkely

The scenic currently costs €150 a month in petrol tops. Depreciation is zero at this stage (in fact it might even be worth more than we paid for it!) and servicing costs are filters and oil once a year.

Hard to beat that in any motor!

Still have a desire to change it for a Leaf, just can't justify it economically yet. I reckon I'll keep it for another few years and then look for a 2014 leaf with the better battery technology. The kids will also be a bit bigger and rather than three boosters i will only need to fit two in the back.

If I were to change now the best I could afford would be a 131 version. Even that would have plenty of range to get either myself or my wife to and from work and cover the other daily trips that we would have to do.

A work colleague gave me a spin in his one the other day and I was very impressed, especially the lack of noise driving it around the car park in work.

I'll still be keeping my big noisy diesel crewcab van for long trips west, towing the caravan and general workhorse duties though! ]I wonder how long it will be before electric can replace that?

cros13

oinkely wrote: »

I'll still be keeping my big noisy diesel crewcab van for long trips west, towing the caravan and general workhorse duties though! ]I wonder how long it will be before electric can replace that?

Well, Tesla have their Model X coming out this week. Seating for 7 adults + storage for all their luggage, 3.2 second 0-100kph and towing for just over 2,200kg. Rumors that they may double towing capacity in a few years too.

Might be a little out of your price range though....

However it just shows you what's possible and I doubt it will take more than 5-6 years for an equivalent to the Model X to reach more affordable pricing (maybe a crossover based on the Model 3 platform).

The reason towing is not recommended on most EVs these days is not because we lack the power but because our motors are generally cooled by ambient air and not rated to operate at the high consistent load towing at up to motorway speed would put on them.
The Model X motor is liquid cooled (like the model S motor) and tested/rated for what the americans call Class 3 towing (2,200 to 4,400kg).

oinkely

oinkely wrote: »

The scenic currently costs €150 a month in petrol tops. Depreciation is zero at this stage (in fact it might even be worth more than we paid for it!) and servicing costs are filters and oil once a year.

Hard to beat that in any motor!

Still have a desire to change it for a Leaf, just can't justify it economically yet. I reckon I'll keep it for another few years and then look for a 2014 leaf with the better battery technology. The kids will also be a bit bigger and rather than three boosters i will only need to fit two in the back.

If I were to change now the best I could afford would be a 131 version. Even that would have plenty of range to get either myself or my wife to and from work and cover the other daily trips that we would have to do.

A work colleague gave me a spin in his one the other day and I was very impressed, especially the lack of noise driving it around the car park in work.

I'll still be keeping my big noisy diesel crewcab van for long trips west, towing the caravan and general workhorse duties though! ]I wonder how long it will be before electric can replace that?

From an economical point of view keeping the old car always makes sense, little to depreciate and spend the rest on fuel.

Buying new or 2nd hand at a similar cost, nothing beats EV.

With 5 K deposit I pay 450 Pm for the top spec Leaf and 25 K Kms per year, that's, I was paying 240 PM for to run the 60 mpg prius at that time. Excluding maintenance, motor tax etc.

The 450 I pay per month now included interest and depreciation becuse I'm on PCP.

Electric motors certainly have the power for toeing but the batteries are not powerful enough, it puts a lot of extra strain on it. The Model S can tow but its battery is a lot bigger and is naturally more powerful.

oinkely

I think you might be right cros13, that will definitely be way out of my budget ;-)

However, it sounds really interesting. I'm off now to google that one.

I'll let you all know when I do take the electric plunge. It will be the day after the Scenic dies!

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

From an economical point of view keeping the old car always makes sense, little to depreciate and spend the rest on fuel.

Buying new or 2nd hand at a similar cost, nothing beats EV.

With 5 K deposit I pay 450 Pm for the top spec Leaf and 25 K Kms per year, that's, I was paying 240 PM for to run the 60 mpg prius at that time. Excluding maintenance, motor tax etc.

The 450 I pay per month now included interest and depreciation becuse I'm on PCP.

while I agree with your comments in general

Buying new or 2nd hand at a similar cost, nothing beats EV.

This simply doesnt add up , If you look at a PCP finance , where you keep the car three years, you will NEVER see a Leaf payback its increased purchase price over and equivalent PETROL car. ( diesel payback is also nonsense in a lot of cases )

your statement would be true ( and will be true in the future ) when EVs have similar pricing to petrol cars

KCross

All
Based on some recent posts on another thread about running costs and how all the EV gains are apparently lost when you add in depreciation, I decided to take a retrospective look back at my own scenario and see how the figures now look a year on.

My use case:

- I bought second hand (1 year old Leaf SVE). i.e. Bought a 151 in 161.
- I do 25k km's per year.
- Its practically all home charging.
- Range isnt an issue as we are a two car household so the diesel handles the extra long journeys although I did drive the Leaf from London to Cork!... as well as a few other journeys (Waterford, Dublin, West Cork).

At the time of buying the car(2016) I had a 2011 2.0TDi and so the decision was to switch to EV or stick with ICE.

I've put a simple enough spreadsheet together of the running costs which are accurate for the Leaf as I have a kWh meter on my EVSE so I know exactly what it is consuming and my electric night rate is 7.51c/kWh so I know what it is costing me exactly.

The spreadsheet, hopefully, demonstrates how the Leaf compares to keeping the 2011 and driving it for another 4 years versus buying a 151 VW Golf.

Its hard to be completely unbiased but I think I've been fair and conservative in some cases and I'm including depreciation. The depreciation figures are debatable but shouldnt be too far out, I hope.

I'd like a critical review of the figures and any glaring omissions I've made, particularly on the ICE side. I'll update and repost once I get feedback.

I dont want the thread to disintegrate into a positive and negative things about EV such as range, battery life, looks, environment etc. There are plenty threads already discussing that. Just purely, what are the relative yearly costs between EV and ICE.

I've left some things out like NCT, wipers, tyres, PCP interest etc as they are similar and wont change the bottomline differences much, if any.

I want it to be a fair comparison and of course it has assumptions built in so its not an exact science. Its just one use case (mine), but I think its reasonable.

Obviously there will be other use cases where the figures simply dont work... like where you buy an expensive new one where depreciation might be higher or you do low annual mileage. I'm not saying EV beats ICE everytime.

Again, its just one use case that would-be EV buyers might find useful when making a decision for themselves.

Here goes....

September1

I think you might be a bit optimistic in depreciation and pessimistic with costs of ICE, but it would still make no difference and TCO would be lower for EV.

KCross

September1 wrote: »

I think you might be a bit optimistic in depreciation and pessimistic with costs of ICE, but it would still make no difference and TCO would be lower for EV.

Im not sure I understand. Are you saying optimistic depreciation figures and pessimistic costs of ICE cancel each other out and so the bottomline figure is largely correct?

Note: The depreciation figures are fairly accurate based on whats on Done deal and I used close to the asking price for ICE (which is usually not real world, so that bumps ICE artifically up!) and I stripped an extra €2k off for EV which is pulling EV down.... I dont think it would be fair to massage the figures anymore than that.

If any of my figures are out, can you propose what you think is more reasonable and back it up with data if you can from Done deal.

stimpson

I think your depreciation is way out for the Leaf. According to Auto Express, the Leaf is the second worst car for depreciation and retained just 23% of it's value after 3 years - that's depreciation of 39% pa.

Based on that, the depreciation of an 18K car over 4 years are:

Year 1: 7020.00
Year 2: 4282.20
Year 3: 2612.14
Year 4: 1593.41

Of course the flip side to this is that you should be able to land a 151 UK import for ~12.5K, instead of 18K

KCross

stimpson wrote: »

I think your depreciation is way out for the Leaf. According to Auto Express, the Leaf is the second worst car for depreciation and retained just 23% of it's value after 3 years - that's depreciation of 39% pa.

Based on that, the depreciation of an 18K car over 4 years are:

Year 1: 7020.00
Year 2: 4282.20
Year 3: 2612.14
Year 4: 1593.41

Of course the flip side to this is that you should be able to land a 151 UK import for ~12.5K, instead of 18K

I think you might have misinterpreted the data? My 18k was for a 1yr old car, not buying a 151 now.

Your depreciation figures are from new and as everyone knows the initial years are the worst. Thats exactly why I didnt buy new.

My case is where my starting point has already shed 30% of its new value and depreciation isnt linear.... you dont lose the same % every year like you have calculated it.

And the figures I've used are based on what the cars are making today on done deal. If your figures were right my 18k car will be worth about 2k when its 5yrs old. There are plenty of 5 and 6 year old Leafs for sale(UK and Ireland) and none of them are below 5k, not to mind 2k so I cant take your depreciation figures seriously, to be honest.

I appreciate your feedback though. The depreciation is a guessing game anyway.

stimpson

KCross wrote: »

I think you might have misinterpreted the data? My 18k was for a 1yr old car, not buying a 151 now.

Your depreciation figures are from new and as everyone knows the initial years are the worst. Thats exactly why I didnt buy new.

My case is where my starting point has already shed 30% of its new value and depreciation isnt linear.... you dont lose the same % every year like you have calculated it.

And the figures I've used are based on what the cars are making today on done deal. If your figures were right my 18k car will be worth about 2k when its 5yrs old. There are plenty of 5 and 6 year old Leafs for sale(UK and Ireland) and none of them are below 5k, not to mind 2k so I cant take your depreciation figures seriously, to be honest.

I appreciate your feedback though. The depreciation is a guessing game anyway.

Depreciation isn't linear because the value you use to calculate it is reduced every year. It's still 38%, but 38% of a reducing number. Admittedly once you get to 5K or less then the condition of the vehicle will have more bearing on the price. There is a 4 year old leaf on Autotrader for 5.5k. And an asking price on done deal is only an asking price, not a selling price.

As an example, here's a 151 with no battery lease for less than 10K sterling.

oinkely

stimpson wrote: »

I think your depreciation is way out for the Leaf. According to Auto Express, the Leaf is the second worst car for depreciation and retained just 23% of it's value after 3 years - that's depreciation of 39% pa.

Based on that, the depreciation of an 18K car over 4 years are:

Year 1: 7020.00
Year 2: 4282.20
Year 3: 2612.14
Year 4: 1593.41

Of course the flip side to this is that you should be able to land a 151 UK import for ~12.5K, instead of 18K

I'm half looking for a replacement for our second leaf at the moment and keep a close eye on autotrader.co.uk. I don't think that your depreciation figures are close to reality. Maybe if you have links in the trade and can get your hands on trade vehicles then 12.5k for a 151 might be realistic. For joe soap not so much.

I have a 132 gen 1 for sale at €10.5k and have had a few offers around €8k with the reasoning that they could land one from the UK at that price. Again, I have never seen a late 13 for even close to €8k. The ones that low seem to be older, 11 or 12 and usually visia spec or battery lease models.

I think the difficulty is that we compare the lowest price on autotrader and see that as representing the true value, which is really not correct. you need to look at like for like and when you do that you are looking at better depreciation picture from an owners perspective.

stimpson

KCross wrote: »

If your figures were right my 18k car will be worth about 2k when its 5yrs old. .

There might be some confusion there. That values I posted are the amount it has depreciated each year, so if you bought a 2 year old car for 18K, based on those figures it's worth €4,000 at 5 years old (18000 - 7020.00 - 4282.20 - 2612.14)

I do think it's probably a bit pessimistic (and I do think condition will be important to a buyer at 5 years), but I'd say it's within a grand or two.

Using your numbers it would be worth €10,500 but you could land a 2 year old one from UK for that money right now.

listermint

stimpson wrote: »

There might be some confusion there. That values I posted are the amount it has depreciated each year, so if you bought a 2 year old car for 18K, based on those figures it's worth €4,000 at 5 years old (18000 - 7020.00 - 4282.20 - 2612.14)

I do think it's probably a bit pessimistic (and I do think condition will be important to a buyer at 5 years), but I'd say it's within a grand or two.

Using your numbers it would be worth €10,500 but you could land a 2 year old one from UK for that money right now.

Not pessimistic so to speak. Made up.

September1

KCross wrote: »

Im not sure I understand. Are you saying optimistic depreciation figures and pessimistic costs of ICE cancel each other out and so the bottomline figure is largely correct?

Note: The depreciation figures are fairly accurate based on whats on Done deal and I used close to the asking price for ICE (which is usually not real world, so that bumps ICE artifically up!) and I stripped an extra €2k off for EV which is pulling EV down.... I dont think it would be fair to massage the figures anymore than that.

If any of my figures are out, can you propose what you think is more reasonable and back it up with data if you can from Done deal.

https://www.donedeal.ie/cars/Volkswagen/Golf?area=Ireland&year_from=2012&year_to=2012&transmission=Manual&sort=price%20asc&fuelType=Diesel&engine_from=1.6&engine_to=1.6&mileage_to=50000&mileage_from=30000

Cheapest low mileage 1.6 TDI Golf from 2012 is 14k asking, and even lower mileage LEAF is 10k so that is 4k of price differential minimum. In your graph difference is 3k. There is now enough data to compare high mileage vehicles and see how depreciation affects them. In theory 100kkm LEAF is safer choice than 100kkm TDI, but would public agree with this is another question.

There is also question of reliability in first 5 years of owning a car, when I had LEAF it had 3 years warranty so in last year you would be looking at expensive bills if breaks needs to be fixed for example.

KCross

stimpson wrote: »

I think your depreciation is way out for the Leaf. According to Auto Express, the Leaf is the second worst car for depreciation and retained just 23% of it's value after 3 years - that's depreciation of 39% pa.

Based on that, the depreciation of an 18K car over 4 years are:

Year 1: 7020.00
Year 2: 4282.20
Year 3: 2612.14
Year 4: 1593.41

Of course the flip side to this is that you should be able to land a 151 UK import for ~12.5K, instead of 18K

One other important point on the depreciation value that autoexpress give is that they base it off the RRP of the car. From looking at the UK forums, no one pays anywhere near the RRP for a leaf. The discounts are quite large up front (3-4k discounts) and hence why they are much cheaper for us to buy 2nd hand and bring them in.

Im still struggling to match your depreciation figures with the real world. Maybe the truth is somewhere between the two of us.

Maybe ICE depreciation is too optimistic as well as I took close to asking price there and as by your own admission asking price is not reality?

What would you pay for a 5yr old 1.6d Golf?

stimpson

listermint wrote: »

Not pessimistic so to speak. Made up.

Stats from depreciation experts CAP, calculated with maths and backed up with examples from AutoTrader. Feel free to point out exactly what I've made up.

KCross

September1 wrote: »

Cheapest low mileage 1.6 TDI Golf from 2012 is 14k asking, and even lower mileage LEAF is 10k so that is 4k of price differential minimum. In your graph difference is 3k. There is now enough data to compare high mileage vehicles and see how depreciation affects them. In theory 100kkm LEAF is safer choice than 100kkm TDI, but would public agree with this is another question.

There is also question of reliability in first 5 years of owning a car, when I had LEAF it had 3 years warranty so in last year you would be looking at expensive bills if breaks needs to be fixed for example.

When coming up with Golf prices I didnt restrict my query to low mileage. Doing that and finding one car and then using that as your sample size isnt reasonable, IMO.

Most 2nd hand cars would have more than 50k on the clock after 5yrs. Im not trying to massage the figures to give me the answer I want but a one car sample size isnt enough, IMO.

I can see some 5yr old Golf's with reasonable mileage for less than 11k asking...
https://www.donedeal.ie/cars-for-sale/vw-golf/14476329
https://www.donedeal.ie/cars-for-sale/2012-volkswagen-golf-1-6-tdi/14297714

September1

KCross wrote: »

When coming up with Golf prices I didnt restrict my query to low mileage. Doing that and finding one car and then using that as your sample size isnt reasonable, IMO.

Most 2nd hand cars would have more than 50k on the clock after 5yrs. Im not trying to massage the figures to give me the answer I want but a one car sample size isnt enough, IMO.

Of course you did not restrict because it would not be "reasonable".

Carzone has much better numbers:
http://www.carzone.ie/search/result/cars/make/nissan/model/leaf/min-year/2012/max-year/2012/min-mileage/min/max-mileage/39999
http://www.carzone.ie/search/result/cars/make/volkswagen/model/golf/min-year/2012/max-year/2012/fuel-type/diesel/min-mileage/min/max-mileage/39999

Clearly difference there seems to be more significant and hopefully sample is large enough for you to consider adjusting depreciation costs.

There is also breakeven point, a year in which EV is better than ICE - because every year depreciation is small in absolute terms, but annual savings are fixed (or even increasing once warranty and service plans are over). This means that there might be a certain age of LEAF where it just makes sense to buy it vs same age ICE car. Is it possible to find it out from your excel, please?

KCross

September1 wrote: »

There is also question of reliability in first 5 years of owning a car, when I had LEAF it had 3 years warranty so in last year you would be looking at expensive bills if breaks needs to be fixed for example.

True. But I dont think thats EV specific.

I heard of expensive EV repairs outside warranty and we all know there are expensive repairs for ICE outside warranty.... I've wrote the cheques myself!

That is why I've left them out of the equation because its the look of the draw whether you get hit with one of those large bills or not regardless of ICE or EV.

EV should be more reliable though.

stimpson

KCross wrote: »

One other important point on the depreciation value that autoexpress give is that they base it off the RRP of the car. From looking at the UK forums, no one pays anywhere near the RRP for a leaf. The discounts are quite large up front (3-4k discounts) and hence why they are much cheaper for us to buy 2nd hand and bring them in.

Im still struggling to match your depreciation figures with the real world. Maybe the truth is somewhere between the two of us.

Maybe ICE depreciation is too optimistic as well as I took close to asking price there and as by your own admission asking price is not reality?

What would you pay for a 5yr old 1.6d Golf?

I agree that is partly the reason for the steep depreciation, but as noted in the article, the flood of ex-lease cars due on the market could depress prices even further.

Regardless of the reasons, cheap imports (and zero VRT) will have an effect on Irish prices. Personally, I'm waiting to land one for €5k as a second car. Even with a depleted battery it would be perfect for doing the school run.

KCross

September1 wrote: »

Of course you did not restrict because it would not be "reasonable".

Carzone has much better numbers:
http://www.carzone.ie/search/result/cars/make/nissan/model/leaf/min-year/2012/max-year/2012/min-mileage/min/max-mileage/39999
http://www.carzone.ie/search/result/cars/make/volkswagen/model/golf/min-year/2012/max-year/2012/fuel-type/diesel/min-mileage/min/max-mileage/39999

Clearly difference there seems to be more significant and hopefully sample is large enough for you to consider adjusting depreciation costs.

There is also breakeven point, a year in which EV is better than ICE - because every year depreciation is small in absolute terms, but annual savings are fixed (or even increasing once warranty and service plans are over). This means that there might be a certain age of LEAF where it just makes sense to buy it vs same age ICE car. Is it possible to find it out from your excel, please?

Limiting your query to low mileage is giving you the "best" cars and hence the highest prices.

I've shown a few examples above where you can get high spec Golf's for €11k and not that much more mileage. I wouldnt pay €10k for the Leaf's either btw.

Also, if you say a 2012 Golf is really worth €14k it means, in my spreadsheet, it only depreciated a little over €1k a year from 1 year old? Do you believe that?

Lets not to and fro too much on it.... ultimately your opinion is that the gap between Leaf and Golf should be €4k when they are 5yrs old.... thats ultimately what you want to see in the calc... yes?

Maybe in the interest of balance I'll add a column to show your POV and then its up to whoever is reading it to pick the one they think is right.

Lets see what other feedback I get first.

KCross

One other thing I'd like to clarify.... the 151 Leaf I have quoted at 18k was for a top of the range SVE with 6.6kW charger. I could have bought an SV for about 1500-2000 or so less.

The Golf I picked at 19k is not a highline.... its a mid range.

Maybe I should adjust those to be closer in spec as the 2nd hands here are mainly SV's not SVE's. I'll leave it for now.

n97 mini

Just did my own comparison. We bought our 152 Leaf in 162, i.e. one year old, for a lot less than 18k. The 2nd car is a 2004 Civic IMA that's in excellent mechanical order, never misses a beat though it's looking a bit rough around the edges.

2011 Leaf is based on what a friend bought.

grogi

n97 mini wrote: »

Just did my own comparison.

Where the hell would you get insurance for €350?!

n97 mini

grogi wrote: »

Where the hell would you get insurance for €350?!

I shop around religiously. Both cars currently insured with Liberty and we're named drivers on each other's policies.

n97 mini

I just updated my spreadsheet with some speculation about an Ioniq, which might be our next car, but not till 2018 when I'd consider a 1 year old.

KCross

grogi wrote: »

Where the hell would you get insurance for €350?!

Thats what I paid a few weeks ago with Zurich. They are specialising in EV and specifically call it out on their website.
http://www.zurichinsurance.ie/car-insurance/electric-car-insurance.htm

And its a fully loaded policy..... full bonus protection , 24hr assist, fully comp.


My renewal quote this Jan from my ICE insurer for last year was €850 eventhough I had only paid them €450 for the previous 12 months!!!

Zurich all the way for EV drivers!

KCross

n97 mini wrote: »

I just updated my spreadsheet with some speculation about an Ioniq, which might be our next car, but not till 2018 when I'd consider a 1 year old.

Wow, you are really expecting the value of that Ioniq to tank next year!

Even if a new longer range model comes out it wont be at the same price. That would be suicide for Hyundai if they did that.

n97 mini

KCross wrote: »

Wow, you are really expecting the value of that Ioniq to tank next year!

Even if a new longer range model comes out it wont be at the same price. That would be suicide for Hyundai if they did that.

Only time will tell, so it's pure speculation. If Hyundai bring out a significantly higher capacity battery then I'd expect the 28kwh model to depreciate maybe only slightly better than the Leaf. So yeah, probably 45% or so after its first year.

KCross

n97 mini wrote: »

Only time will tell, so it's pure speculation. If Hyundai bring out a significantly higher capacity battery then I'd expect the 28kwh model to depreciate maybe only slightly better than the Leaf. So yeah, probably 45% or so after its first year.

@unkel is probably in cardiac arrest around now!

unkel

Nope

I'm buying mine to keep for about 7 years and even if it is worth only €4k at the end of that, my depreciation is just €3k per year. I can live with that.

Purchase value 2017 is incorrect BTW at €28.5k. It's €28.5 minus €4k scrappage plus delivery (€1,000) and metallic (€795) minus your negotiated discount depending on your negotiating skills plus the value of your scrappage car. In my case this total sum is thousands less than €28.5k

As for n97 mini's prediction that he will be able to pick up a 171 reg Hyundai Ioniq (presumably non-white) for €15k in January of 2018? I bet he is wrong by at least €1k, probably a good bit more. But only time will tell. We'll keep this thread open until the reckoning next year

As for total cost of ownership, using n97 mini's figures he comes in at €12,880 or €268 per month. Buying new (keeping for 7 years) using the same figures would cost €28,190 or €335 per month. But if the 1 year old Ioniq would set him back €18k, then his monthly costs would be the same as mine!!!

September1

unkel wrote: »

As for total cost of ownership, using n97 mini's figures he comes in at €12,880 or €268 per month. Buying new (keeping for 7 years) using the same figures would cost €28,190 or €335 per month. But if the 1 year old Ioniq would set him back €18k, then his monthly costs would be the same as mine!!!

What is your typical mileage in a year?

unkel

For ease of comparison I used 16k km (like n97 mini is doing). My mileage up to now is a good bit less, but I'm holding back / economising as driving a very heavy Jaguar with a 3l V6 engine does cost quite a lot in petrol...

I'd say my mileage will go up quite a bit once I have the Ioniq

n97 mini

unkel wrote: »

I'm buying mine to keep for about 7 years and even if it is worth only €4k at the end of that, my depreciation is just €3k per year. I can live with that.
... In my case this total sum is thousands less than €28.5k

As for n97 mini's prediction that he will be able to pick up a 171 reg Hyundai Ioniq (presumably non-white) for €15k in January of 2018? I bet he is wrong by at least €1k

You're saying you paid around 7x3+4=25k. In that case I would expect 15k a reasonable, maybe even optimistic, price in a year's time. Might get it for less.

unkel

Who knows. If this time next year Tesla changes his mind and introduces the Model 3 for $25,000 instead of $35,000 then for sure any nearly new Leaf / Ionic / i3 / Zoe and what not will lose half their value overnight. Or if another budget family size EV comes out that has at least 50% more range than the Ioniq for similar money.