EV Cost Per 162,000 Kms V 55 MPG Diesel.

stimpson

listermint wrote: »

Not pessimistic so to speak. Made up.

Stats from depreciation experts CAP, calculated with maths and backed up with examples from AutoTrader. Feel free to point out exactly what I've made up.

KCross

September1 wrote: »

Cheapest low mileage 1.6 TDI Golf from 2012 is 14k asking, and even lower mileage LEAF is 10k so that is 4k of price differential minimum. In your graph difference is 3k. There is now enough data to compare high mileage vehicles and see how depreciation affects them. In theory 100kkm LEAF is safer choice than 100kkm TDI, but would public agree with this is another question.

There is also question of reliability in first 5 years of owning a car, when I had LEAF it had 3 years warranty so in last year you would be looking at expensive bills if breaks needs to be fixed for example.

When coming up with Golf prices I didnt restrict my query to low mileage. Doing that and finding one car and then using that as your sample size isnt reasonable, IMO.

Most 2nd hand cars would have more than 50k on the clock after 5yrs. Im not trying to massage the figures to give me the answer I want but a one car sample size isnt enough, IMO.

I can see some 5yr old Golf's with reasonable mileage for less than 11k asking...
https://www.donedeal.ie/cars-for-sale/vw-golf/14476329
https://www.donedeal.ie/cars-for-sale/2012-volkswagen-golf-1-6-tdi/14297714

September1

KCross wrote: »

When coming up with Golf prices I didnt restrict my query to low mileage. Doing that and finding one car and then using that as your sample size isnt reasonable, IMO.

Most 2nd hand cars would have more than 50k on the clock after 5yrs. Im not trying to massage the figures to give me the answer I want but a one car sample size isnt enough, IMO.

Of course you did not restrict because it would not be "reasonable".

Carzone has much better numbers:
http://www.carzone.ie/search/result/cars/make/nissan/model/leaf/min-year/2012/max-year/2012/min-mileage/min/max-mileage/39999
http://www.carzone.ie/search/result/cars/make/volkswagen/model/golf/min-year/2012/max-year/2012/fuel-type/diesel/min-mileage/min/max-mileage/39999

Clearly difference there seems to be more significant and hopefully sample is large enough for you to consider adjusting depreciation costs.

There is also breakeven point, a year in which EV is better than ICE - because every year depreciation is small in absolute terms, but annual savings are fixed (or even increasing once warranty and service plans are over). This means that there might be a certain age of LEAF where it just makes sense to buy it vs same age ICE car. Is it possible to find it out from your excel, please?

KCross

September1 wrote: »

There is also question of reliability in first 5 years of owning a car, when I had LEAF it had 3 years warranty so in last year you would be looking at expensive bills if breaks needs to be fixed for example.

True. But I dont think thats EV specific.

I heard of expensive EV repairs outside warranty and we all know there are expensive repairs for ICE outside warranty.... I've wrote the cheques myself!

That is why I've left them out of the equation because its the look of the draw whether you get hit with one of those large bills or not regardless of ICE or EV.

EV should be more reliable though.

stimpson

KCross wrote: »

One other important point on the depreciation value that autoexpress give is that they base it off the RRP of the car. From looking at the UK forums, no one pays anywhere near the RRP for a leaf. The discounts are quite large up front (3-4k discounts) and hence why they are much cheaper for us to buy 2nd hand and bring them in.

Im still struggling to match your depreciation figures with the real world. Maybe the truth is somewhere between the two of us.

Maybe ICE depreciation is too optimistic as well as I took close to asking price there and as by your own admission asking price is not reality?

What would you pay for a 5yr old 1.6d Golf?

I agree that is partly the reason for the steep depreciation, but as noted in the article, the flood of ex-lease cars due on the market could depress prices even further.

Regardless of the reasons, cheap imports (and zero VRT) will have an effect on Irish prices. Personally, I'm waiting to land one for €5k as a second car. Even with a depleted battery it would be perfect for doing the school run.

KCross

September1 wrote: »

Of course you did not restrict because it would not be "reasonable".

Carzone has much better numbers:
http://www.carzone.ie/search/result/cars/make/nissan/model/leaf/min-year/2012/max-year/2012/min-mileage/min/max-mileage/39999
http://www.carzone.ie/search/result/cars/make/volkswagen/model/golf/min-year/2012/max-year/2012/fuel-type/diesel/min-mileage/min/max-mileage/39999

Clearly difference there seems to be more significant and hopefully sample is large enough for you to consider adjusting depreciation costs.

There is also breakeven point, a year in which EV is better than ICE - because every year depreciation is small in absolute terms, but annual savings are fixed (or even increasing once warranty and service plans are over). This means that there might be a certain age of LEAF where it just makes sense to buy it vs same age ICE car. Is it possible to find it out from your excel, please?

Limiting your query to low mileage is giving you the "best" cars and hence the highest prices.

I've shown a few examples above where you can get high spec Golf's for €11k and not that much more mileage. I wouldnt pay €10k for the Leaf's either btw.

Also, if you say a 2012 Golf is really worth €14k it means, in my spreadsheet, it only depreciated a little over €1k a year from 1 year old? Do you believe that?

Lets not to and fro too much on it.... ultimately your opinion is that the gap between Leaf and Golf should be €4k when they are 5yrs old.... thats ultimately what you want to see in the calc... yes?

Maybe in the interest of balance I'll add a column to show your POV and then its up to whoever is reading it to pick the one they think is right.

Lets see what other feedback I get first.

KCross

One other thing I'd like to clarify.... the 151 Leaf I have quoted at 18k was for a top of the range SVE with 6.6kW charger. I could have bought an SV for about 1500-2000 or so less.

The Golf I picked at 19k is not a highline.... its a mid range.

Maybe I should adjust those to be closer in spec as the 2nd hands here are mainly SV's not SVE's. I'll leave it for now.

n97 mini

Just did my own comparison. We bought our 152 Leaf in 162, i.e. one year old, for a lot less than 18k. The 2nd car is a 2004 Civic IMA that's in excellent mechanical order, never misses a beat though it's looking a bit rough around the edges.

2011 Leaf is based on what a friend bought.

grogi

n97 mini wrote: »

Just did my own comparison.

Where the hell would you get insurance for €350?!

n97 mini

grogi wrote: »

Where the hell would you get insurance for €350?!

I shop around religiously. Both cars currently insured with Liberty and we're named drivers on each other's policies.

n97 mini

I just updated my spreadsheet with some speculation about an Ioniq, which might be our next car, but not till 2018 when I'd consider a 1 year old.

KCross

grogi wrote: »

Where the hell would you get insurance for €350?!

Thats what I paid a few weeks ago with Zurich. They are specialising in EV and specifically call it out on their website.
http://www.zurichinsurance.ie/car-insurance/electric-car-insurance.htm

And its a fully loaded policy..... full bonus protection , 24hr assist, fully comp.


My renewal quote this Jan from my ICE insurer for last year was €850 eventhough I had only paid them €450 for the previous 12 months!!!

Zurich all the way for EV drivers!

KCross

n97 mini wrote: »

I just updated my spreadsheet with some speculation about an Ioniq, which might be our next car, but not till 2018 when I'd consider a 1 year old.

Wow, you are really expecting the value of that Ioniq to tank next year!

Even if a new longer range model comes out it wont be at the same price. That would be suicide for Hyundai if they did that.

n97 mini

KCross wrote: »

Wow, you are really expecting the value of that Ioniq to tank next year!

Even if a new longer range model comes out it wont be at the same price. That would be suicide for Hyundai if they did that.

Only time will tell, so it's pure speculation. If Hyundai bring out a significantly higher capacity battery then I'd expect the 28kwh model to depreciate maybe only slightly better than the Leaf. So yeah, probably 45% or so after its first year.

KCross

n97 mini wrote: »

Only time will tell, so it's pure speculation. If Hyundai bring out a significantly higher capacity battery then I'd expect the 28kwh model to depreciate maybe only slightly better than the Leaf. So yeah, probably 45% or so after its first year.

@unkel is probably in cardiac arrest around now!

unkel

Nope

I'm buying mine to keep for about 7 years and even if it is worth only €4k at the end of that, my depreciation is just €3k per year. I can live with that.

Purchase value 2017 is incorrect BTW at €28.5k. It's €28.5 minus €4k scrappage plus delivery (€1,000) and metallic (€795) minus your negotiated discount depending on your negotiating skills plus the value of your scrappage car. In my case this total sum is thousands less than €28.5k

As for n97 mini's prediction that he will be able to pick up a 171 reg Hyundai Ioniq (presumably non-white) for €15k in January of 2018? I bet he is wrong by at least €1k, probably a good bit more. But only time will tell. We'll keep this thread open until the reckoning next year

As for total cost of ownership, using n97 mini's figures he comes in at €12,880 or €268 per month. Buying new (keeping for 7 years) using the same figures would cost €28,190 or €335 per month. But if the 1 year old Ioniq would set him back €18k, then his monthly costs would be the same as mine!!!

September1

unkel wrote: »

As for total cost of ownership, using n97 mini's figures he comes in at €12,880 or €268 per month. Buying new (keeping for 7 years) using the same figures would cost €28,190 or €335 per month. But if the 1 year old Ioniq would set him back €18k, then his monthly costs would be the same as mine!!!

What is your typical mileage in a year?

unkel

For ease of comparison I used 16k km (like n97 mini is doing). My mileage up to now is a good bit less, but I'm holding back / economising as driving a very heavy Jaguar with a 3l V6 engine does cost quite a lot in petrol...

I'd say my mileage will go up quite a bit once I have the Ioniq

n97 mini

unkel wrote: »

I'm buying mine to keep for about 7 years and even if it is worth only €4k at the end of that, my depreciation is just €3k per year. I can live with that.
... In my case this total sum is thousands less than €28.5k

As for n97 mini's prediction that he will be able to pick up a 171 reg Hyundai Ioniq (presumably non-white) for €15k in January of 2018? I bet he is wrong by at least €1k

You're saying you paid around 7x3+4=25k. In that case I would expect 15k a reasonable, maybe even optimistic, price in a year's time. Might get it for less.

unkel

Who knows. If this time next year Tesla changes his mind and introduces the Model 3 for $25,000 instead of $35,000 then for sure any nearly new Leaf / Ionic / i3 / Zoe and what not will lose half their value overnight. Or if another budget family size EV comes out that has at least 50% more range than the Ioniq for similar money.