The Daily bets, Banter & Accumulators thread III

PopePalpatine

I'm glad I got on the Pearce train before the odds plummeted.

Lamposts

Lamposts wrote: »

Also took my best former friend Bojan to score 1st at 7/1.

Austria!

fuzzydunlop85 wrote: »

Just reminded me about a bet I seen before Christmas and was gonna have a decent wedge on. I saw pp had wellbeck @7/4 to make the England squad for the euros. Thought that was a great price was their main man in qualifying for the WC and has a great goalscoring record for England. Can play a variety of positions and I think as long as he is injury free he will go to the Euros. Anyone any thoughts? And anyone know where I can get a price for this? Seems to be gone of pp now.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/england-euro-2016-specials/to-make-the-squad

bv only let me put 100 on

shmeee

Liverpool corners racking in tonight when I ain't on them. Over 5.5 was 4/6 with bet365, PP line was over 6.5 @ 11/10.

Anyone take them?

fuzzydunlop85

Austria! wrote: »

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/england-euro-2016-specials/to-make-the-squad

bv only let me put 100 on

4/1 nice price considering I was happy with 7/4 ! Good luck with the bet I don't have accounts with any of those bookies and can't be bothered opening any new ones. Hopefully he makes it.

fuzzydunlop85

Fecking hexed with Liverpool, back them to win they lose , back against them they win! Hopefully stoke can turn it round in the second half.

9de5q7tsr8u2im

Lucas CB , Coutinho injured , stoke 9/4 DC
Outstanding value

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Genoa DNB @ 1.50

4 losses in a row in the league, I dont consider the Cup game as a loss because they drew in normal time

Not gonna happen :pac:

fuzzydunlop85

LuckyDude12 wrote: »

Lucas CB , Coutinho injured , stoke 9/4 DC
Outstanding value

Hmmm this is tempting alright. Already have a hefty enough bet on them dnb though so will have to leave it.

retalivity

I will be amazed if liverpool do not concede in this match.

Actually no, I won't, as liverpool always screw up bets.

shmeee

retalivity wrote: »

I will be amazed if liverpool do not concede in this match.

Actually no, I won't, as liverpool always screw up bets.

They do me when I back them and when against them. Genoa corners hose in with 11 but no good when in a double.

Ah bollox

retalivity

John F*cking Walters

evosteo

stoke were absolutely dreadful tonight, couldn't string a pass and no drive to get forward. how in gods name have they been getting the results they have in the premier league :eek:

ShamoBuc

ShamoBuc wrote: »

Really like the look of Stoke on Tuesday night. Having seen liverpool's distinctly insipid display against West Ham, I think Stoke will do a similar number on them.

Nice bet on Stoke dnb 11/10 and
Stoke over 1.5 goals 2/1

Smaller on
Stoke ht/ft 4/1
Stoke win and over 2.5 at 9/2
Stoke win btts 11/2
Stoke over 2.5 at 8/1

I can easily see a 2-1, 3-1 scoreline.

:mad:

Walters at the end would have done me!

clickerquicklic

Anyone actually look at Stoke stats ? Think they are one of the lowest scoring teams at home in league , they really are poor and over hyped after a couple of recent memory wins , bookies most of cleaned up tonight

shmeee

shmeee wrote: »

Liverpool corners racking in tonight when I ain't on them. Over 5.5 was 4/6 with bet365, PP line was over 6.5 @ 11/10.

Anyone take them?

Classic Liverpool on the corners again there tonight, 4 @ half time, and then 1 in second half.

evosteo

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Anyone actually look at Stoke stats ? Think they are one of the lowest scoring teams at home in league , they really are poor and over hyped after a couple of recent memory wins , bookies most of cleaned up tonight

stoke should of had more than enough to beat that liverpool team. they were there for the taken

clickerquicklic

evosteo wrote: »

stoke should of had more than enough to beat that liverpool team. they were there for the taken

9th August similar Liverpool team 2.14 Betfair sp
Tonight 2.52 sp
Avoid over hyped teams Leicester Stoke etc and take the value = long term profit

ShamoBuc

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Anyone actually look at Stoke stats ? Think they are one of the lowest scoring teams at home in league , they really are poor and over hyped after a couple of recent memory wins , bookies most of cleaned up tonight

Beat both Manchester teams and Chelsea, scored 2,1,2,1,0,2,2 at home( or something like that) and Liverpool have been relatively poor recently. In their cup run I think tonight is stokes first time going behind. I backed Stoke as it worth the value , add in coutinho and lovren going off, Stoke should have made a far better game of it. They didn't.
It happens
Pp boosted pool to 2/1, maybe they thought the same

clickerquicklic

Just pointing out that there is very good value opposing public money , I'm more of a value player than punter .

Hollister11

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Just pointing out that there is very good value opposing public money , I'm more of a value player than punter .

How do you know what public money is on ?

mailburner

clickerquicklic wrote: »

9th August similar Liverpool team 2.14 Betfair sp
Tonight 2.52 sp
Avoid over hyped teams Leicester Stoke etc and take the value = long term profit

always look to oppose pool esp away from home, think they were evens or less when losing three of their last four away to watf,newc, wham and only scraping past sunder
stoke were poor tonight, hard to know which pool is gonna turn up these days

at least you probably took about three times the amount from the bookies as the rest of the forum lost so fair play, dont think anyone wouldve won a cent from the draw

ShamoBuc

mailburner wrote: »

always look to oppose pool esp away from home, think they were evens or less when losing three of their last four away to watf,newc, wham and only scraping past sunder
stoke were poor tonight, hard to know which pool is gonna turn up these days

at least you probably took about three times the amount from the bookies as the rest of the forum lost so fair play, dont think anyone wouldve won a cent from the draw[/QUOTE]

I would have been delighted, my biggest bet was on dnb and I backed 1-1 at 5/1 mid way through second half. Walters chance at the end was like a dagger :pac:

mailburner

ShamoBuc wrote: »

mailburner wrote: »

always look to oppose pool esp away from home, think they were evens or less when losing three of their last four away to watf,newc, wham and only scraping past sunder
stoke were poor tonight, hard to know which pool is gonna turn up these days

at least you probably took about three times the amount from the bookies as the rest of the forum lost so fair play, dont think anyone wouldve won a cent from the draw[/QUOTE]

I would have been delighted, my biggest bet was on dnb and I backed 1-1 at 5/1 mid way through second half. Walters chance at the end was like a dagger :pac:

sorry shamo
I shouldve at least had a proper look before i posted

ShamoBuc

mailburner wrote: »

ShamoBuc wrote: »

sorry shamo
I shouldve at least had a proper look before i posted

Not at all fella. Betting has more ups and downs than the grand national, :pac:
All part of the fun:)

evosteo

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Just pointing out that there is very good value opposing public money , I'm more of a value player than punter .

iv been burned way too many times by liverpool to ever bet on them. i dont think ill ever trust them again but thats a personal decision

were stoke favorites tonight??????

i only put a bet on stoke dbl chance at half time when i got home from training.

thought i was buying money :pac::pac::pac:

shmeee

evosteo wrote: »

iv been burned way too many times by liverpool to ever bet on them. i dont think ill ever trust them again but thats a personal decision

were stoke favorites tonight??????

i only put a bet on stoke dbl chance at half time when i got home from training.

thought i was buying money :pac::pac::pac:

Liverpool @ 6/4
Stoke @ 11/5

Best about on oddschecker before game.

KevIRL

Lukaku A/T enhanced from 7/4 to 5/2 with PP. Will have some of that. In form and up against a leaky city defense.

clickerquicklic

Hollister11 wrote: »

How do you know what public money is on ?

Lots of indicators just have to read Twitter and you can see how football bias is working , past prices for similar games etc . I also know someone who works for a syndicate and i asked him how over priced are Liverpool and he said very , I didn't know pp was 2/1 if it was in shops probably a reason for Betfair sp.

I was cheering on Stoke for you guys .
Anyway I pass on what I know or am told for information purposes only it's not to brag or point out errors , if liverpool where playing Barcelona and 20/1 I be all over here saying its a great bet , doesn't mean I think it has any chance of winning . My good bets are just bets more likely to happen than odds suggest unlike some pure quality punters here who can pick winner after winner or. Mail burner !

Colonialboy

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Lots of indicators just have to read Twitter and you can see how football bias is working , past prices for similar games etc . I also know someone who works for a syndicate and i asked him how over priced are Liverpool and he said very , I didn't know pp was 2/1 if it was in shops probably a reason for Betfair sp.

I was cheering on Stoke for you guys .
Anyway I pass on what I know or am told for information purposes only it's not to brag or point out errors , if liverpool where playing Barcelona and 20/1 I be all over here saying its a great bet , doesn't mean I think it has any chance of winning . My good bets are just bets more likely to happen than odds suggest unlike some pure quality punters here who can pick winner after winner or. Mail burner !

congrats on the win, I took Stoke butno hard feelings, I think everyone here appreciates people posting bets, opinions etc.

I think Stoke and Liverpool both represented good value last night.
I got 2/1 on Stoke, 2/1 on a team at home playing against an opponent who is only 1 point ahead of them in the PL and Stoke have a better GD.
Thats like getting 2/1 on Man City at home to Arsenal.

If people could also get 2/1 on Liverpool then for the same reason that was good value.
It was a League cup match , Liverpool involved, on a Tuesday night post xmas, anything could have happened.

clickerquicklic

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/betting-psychology/wisdom-of-the-crowd-applied-to-betting

That's a good read , league position largely irrelevant for compiling odds , goal expectancy etc be more of a factor , look at Chelsea odds per game v league position . Pinnacle sports have some great articles if your interested in that thing .

Colonialboy

clickerquicklic wrote: »

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/betting-psychology/wisdom-of-the-crowd-applied-to-betting

That's a good read , league position largely irrelevant for compiling odds , goal expectancy etc be more of a factor , look at Chelsea odds per game v league position . Pinnacle sports have some great articles if your interested in that thing .

very interesting ..

The story on Francis Galton left out the most important part. He reasoned that being an educated man of means, his estimate for the bull would be far closer than median guess of the ordinary people about him. It came as a shock to his breeding and ego that 'the people' were right and he was wrong.

I enjoyed this anecdote ..
English manager, Redknapp had enjoyed a successful spell with Spurs and the public was seemingly behind his appointment), while many bettors were willing to rely on the judgment of others (and the media). Not being privy to the information of others bettors assumed that the information amounted to more than just speculation or wishful thinking. It didn’t – Roy Hodgson was announced as the new England manager on 1st May 2012.

Anyone remember how England did in the World Cup under Hodgson. Maybe 'the peoples money' was right and Harry should have had the job.

Mr. Green

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Lots of indicators just have to read Twitter and you can see how football bias is working , past prices for similar games etc . I also know someone who works for a syndicate and i asked him how over priced are Liverpool and he said very , I didn't know pp was 2/1 if it was in shops probably a reason for Betfair sp.

Really good bet.
I watched the game yesterday and watched that Stoke is the favorite despite a large coefficient.
Saw that Stoke city are getting cheaper by the movement of the line.
And saw that many forums offer Stoke DC.
There were also many suggestions for btts and over 2.5.
I look at the most popular bets, special offer bookmakers.

But out of the line (in my opinion such a game) is very difficult to determine the movement of money.
Because the bookmaker in addition to the movement of the money puts down a line of players ' expectations.
Betfair not an indicator.

So for me the big question will be where else can you look at the movement of money?

Shanotheslayer

Everton Win 13/5
Everton +1 4/5
Everton Over 5.5 Corners 10/11
Everton +1 corner 5/6

mailburner

have to follow lukaku at 5/2

clickerquicklic

Mr. Green wrote: »

Really good bet.
I watched the game yesterday and watched that Stoke is the favorite despite a large coefficient.
Saw that Stoke city are getting cheaper by the movement of the line.
And saw that many forums offer Stoke DC.
There were also many suggestions for btts and over 2.5.
I look at the most popular bets, special offer bookmakers.

But out of the line (in my opinion such a game) is very difficult to determine the movement of money.
Because the bookmaker in addition to the movement of the money puts down a line of players ' expectations.
Betfair not an indicator.

So for me the big question will be where else can you look at the movement of money?

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/soccer/how-to-calculate-poisson-distribution

Have a read of this

BlimpyBoy

mailburner wrote: »

have to follow lukaku at 5/2

Definitely. 11 goals in his last 11 games

And City have 1 clean sheet in their last 10 games

Mr. Green

clickerquicklic wrote: »

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/soccer/how-to-calculate-poisson-distribution

Have a read of this

The Poisson distribution is interesting.
But a very high likelihood that the strategy will be errors.
Poisson calculates on the basis of the law of "large numbers".
But does not take into account form, injuries, game before and after the game, team motivation.

I think the main movement of money is in England, Asian countries.
So I think the odds to win the favorite (team with the name, Real, Barcelona, Manchester, Bayern) is usually underestimated.
But that is not a cash flow.
In rates one of the factors for me is not the change in the coefficient of winning favorite.
Logically I think the favorite I put a lot, but the coefficient does not change. So here the bookie can trap the player.

For example, take the match Napoli - Torino today.
I am sure that a lot of people bet on Napoli to win, but coeffcient on Pinnacle Sports does not change (1.42 - 1.41).
Although the money would have to shift it down.

ShamoBuc

3 bets for tonight, 5/2

Lukaku bet will have to be taken.

I like the look of btts first half, 11/4, came in for a few of Everton home games recently I think

Small on btts both halves also 10/1


Hopefully a few more goals than last night.

FatRat

City corners are definitely overpriced tonight. Not sure how exactly to try and take advantage of it though. I'm gonna go all out:

City race to 9 corners @11/2 (Betfair)

Great value in what will be a very attacking and tight game with plenty of goals - If Everton's recent games are anything to go by.

langer91

Lukaku scores tonight we'll forget all about Stoke last night!

If he doesn't...

Mr. Green

Napoli -vs- Torino, Torino +1 @ 2.480

The coefficient is not changed even after the recaps

9de5q7tsr8u2im

Only if you're a betvictor customer, and not all may receive!
Just got an email €20 free inplay if a €20 placed single on the match beforehand (EvertonvCity)

clickerquicklic

langer91 wrote: »

Lukaku scores tonight we'll forget all about Stoke last night!

If he doesn't...

Is a great price on Betfair if you have no paddys IMO I'm heavily invested at 9/4

eh i dunno

Hoping on the Lukaku funbus @5/2 and a double of benfica/napoli @1.77

clickerquicklic

Lukaku wincast bwin 7.5 looks a great price.

spock.

Yaya anytime @ 4.33

evosteo

just got a free 10 yoyo bet on b365, stuck it on lukaku AT & everton to win 2-1 @20/1

mailburner

have no luck with two or more but it wont stop me

lukaku 10/1 (skyb)

Gone for no goalscorer @ 14/1