Dublin Fingal General Election

dslamjack

Quote:
Originally Posted by kennyb3 View Post

A good thread ruined unfortunately.
I'd have to unfortunately agree

Well I'm all broken up for ye,poor lamb's,the thread title say's''Dublin Fingal General Election'' or should it read''Dublin Fingal General Election for nicey nicey silly chat and poll's from bookies''.
If you want serious debate go join a debating society,their's little chance of a ''real debate'' on an open internet chat forum,look across to the After Hours forum,more often than not''debate'' degenerates to little more that point scoring just for the sake of it.

So the politic's of the last 20 year's,dominated by Fianna Fáil,has nothing to do with where we are today? -- and that's leaving out the political corruption.
Although the 300 million euro the Mahon Tribunal cost would have built some amount of social housing,considering 70 unit's can be built in Lusk for 3.5 million.
I at least made some suggestions on housing,crime,the health service,development,they are my 2 bits worth,populist clap trap possibly,but a view that I'm entitled too ,and what's more I couldn't give a thinkers fiddle if ye don't like them.

It's no wonder we have a health service that is in permanent crisis and has been for nearly 40 years,it's no wonder we have 12,000 registered drug addict's in Dublin City alone because that crisis has remained unchecked,while the criminal's that run the drug's scene,fly in and out of the country,from their high life and villa's on the Costa del Crime,while killing each other in ever increasing numbers on our street's because we have a lousy legal system that believe's these psychopath's have a constitutional right to be at liberty to kill with their gun's and yet another generation with their drug's.
And for what it's worth ,you don't negotiate or seek''ceasefires'' with these sick evil psychopath's,you shoot to kill,a bullet in the head--like the SAS did on the Rock or Lock them up and throw away the key -life without parole-and in solitary confinement- and 2 fingers to their rights.

The problem with the Septic Tiger was't that were too many were house's built,it was that there were too many built in the wrong place's along with hotel's etc in order to fiddle and evade and make use of tax loopholes,put in place by a totally developer backed and run Fianna Fáil government that more than put the big tent in the BallyBrit racecourse to good use,the tent there went back to the Telecom Eireann Day's ,Mr Smurfit and good old Mary O'Rourke,pre and post Telecom sell off day's -Mary never did write the book she promised''about the real truth behind the sell off of one the State's biggest asset,yep and helicopter rental's have never been the same since.
Another thing to be grateful to our politicians for -- The Telecom Eireann sell off,even to the politicians that''couldn't afford to buy the shares'' another huge success just like Irish Water,which too in time will be privatised.

The homelessness crisis is as a result of local council's and corporation's not having built hardly any social development's over the last 15 year's,with the exception of Ballymun,and a large part of that scheme was to replace decrepit housing anyway.
The crisis was not helped in any by the reduction in rent allowance's-- allowances(subsidies to private business)that would not have been needed if a national housing scheme was in progress and been addressed.

And to round off,the whole sorry mess of the last 10 year's could have been avoided,the Lesson's were there for all to see from what happened across the water in the UK in the 90's after Maggie Thatcher sold off council housing stock's to tenant's kick starting the 90's boom that famously ended on that Black Friday,remember comedian Harry Enfield's -STAVROS yesss load's of Money , look at my WAD,yep he really epitomised the Septic Tiger of Paddy the Plasterer and Bertie n Co,not forgetting Ross O'Carroll Kelly,there's a plaque on the wall in a pub in Donnybrook to him.

Not everyone had hummer's to go to the shops in or helicopters for the holy communion's,even in the Septic Tiger,women died on the side of the road in ambulances,thank's to Mary Harney,there are still signs up around the country about the closure's of the various A+E Dept's -- a lot of them still read -- Lies cost lives -- in the west in the last week's their was 1 ambulance to cover Mayo/Sligo.
I remember the outrage about the old A+E Dept in the Mater exploding on the Joe Duffy Liveline show,which led to the building of the new A+E unit, likewise with the Cystic Fibrosis unit in St Vincent's,that had been in planning for 15 year's,that too got built thank's to Liveline ..no other reason.. because the politician's were afraid of the public back lash.
There was the poor divil that froze to death outside his boarded up council flat in Dublin,again Joe seen he was given a bit more dignity in death than he was in life.

One of the biggest scandal's,one of the many has been the way the workers of Clerey's were treated,I did't see Enda or Joan recalling the Dail to insist on emergency legislation to protect workers in the future or to prevent such a disgusting scenario from happening again.
What would you expect from a government that introduced a pension levy on workers hard earned money that was saved for a rainy day in pension fund's that they had all ready paid some of the highest tax's in Europe on.

Well I will leave you to your nicey nicey little chit chat thread to ye,why not go back to talking about those Nike Airmax runners or where they red-- and the serious input of a really important organisation like Paddy Power bookies to influence yere political decision's and input -- real serious stuff all right.
You don't have to take my word for it,not that I care ,go read even a little bit of your recent history,come down out of yere little cosy bubbles and ivory towers,you might even learn some thing and prevent the whole sorry mess from recurring..but somehow I doubt ya will ..and ye will still be twittering about those Nike runner's come the next election ... CYA

Michael8000

kennyb3 wrote: »

OOH, You really got my number!!! Because I don't agree with your babbling I'm a FF'er! Amazingly funny and intelligent play on words there too.

Anyway best of luck, fire away to your hearts content.

A good thread ruined unfortunately. I'm out.

Bigcheeze wrote: »

Yep, unreadable, rambling nonsense which is 90% off topic.

jwwb wrote: »

I'd have to unfortunately agree

Agreed.

The thread has turned into more of a blog at this stage.

RobFowl

My 2 cents worth

Clare Daly has been vocal and active (and effective) in opposition and would be interesting to see in a government position
she'll top the poll

Darragh O Brien will take a seat for FF

FG have 1 definite and 1 possible seat
I think James Reilly had an impossible job in health and was shafted by Howlin in the budgets. Did well to contain the damage but failed to deliver on the ambitious universal health policy, largely due to lack of support form colleagues. he's done well on abortion legislation and superbly well on dealing with smoking (a did M Martin tbf).
Alan Farrell has been quieter but I have seen him organise the goal mile every cold wet Christmas morning !
I think JR will take a seat.
Brendan Ryan is one who I feel I'm missing something on. I see him and anonymous but he has a good reputation and seems a shoe in.
SF should have had a guaranteed seat but the fragmentation of the left vote among many samll parties and inds as well as having a candidate parachuted in seems a bad call. That said Louise o Reilly seems decent enough but the equivocation on Garda McCabe's murder was worrying for me and I suspect others.
Anthony Murphy seems to be popular enough but will finish 7th IMO.
the others are not going to get close which is a pity (esp as I'm voting Greens no 1 ...).

So
Clare Daly then
Darragh O Brien then
James Reilly then
Brendan Ryan then I suspect
Alan Farrell will shade it.

Loiuse O Reilly to be in it at the death but lose out on transfers after probably coming 4th in the first round of voting...

tobsey

RobFowl wrote: »

My 2 cents worth...

Very good analysis. It's how I'd see it playing out too. The last two seats could go anywhere though.

martinn123

Yes good analysis,
Only problem I see is 2 ,F/G seats, don't think the support is there, for both, my money is still on Farrell to take the F/G vote.

RobFowl

martinn123 wrote: »

Yes good analysis,
Only problem I see is 2 ,F/G seats, don't think the support is there, for both, my money is still on Farrell to take the F/G vote.

I can see SF getting AAA/PBP and Clare Daly transfers to an extent but after that they'll struggle.
The last seat will be tight though.

Michael8000

Anyone know where the count is taking place?

Bigcheeze

Michael8000 wrote: »

Anyone know where the count is taking place?

All Dublin counts in RDS I think

Michael8000

Bigcheeze wrote: »

All Dublin counts in RDS I think

Finally managed to find the answer after some furious Googling!

I would have thought the RDS also but turns out it's in Cloghran, which is handy.

Constituency Count Centre
Dublin Fingal Irish Kennel Club, Cloghran, Co. Dublin
Dublin West Phibblestown Communty Hall, Phibblestown, Dublin 15
Dublin Mid-West Citywest Conference Centre, Saggart, Co. Dublin
Dublin South-West Citywest Conference Centre, Saggart, Co. Dublin
Dublin Rathdown National Basketball Arena, Tallaght, Dublin 24
Dún Laoghaire Loughlinstown Community Centre, Loughlinstown, Co. Dublin

https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/index.php/2016-general-election/20-counting-of-votes-for-general-election-2016

martinn123

Are Labour in Free-fall

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/new-poll-shows-lack-of-support-for-labour-party-721499.html

If this poll is correct it shows labour at only 4% down from 8%

Can Brendan Ryan be safe, with this level of abandonment of the Party.

And who will benefit in Fingal?

Michael8000

martinn123 wrote: »

Are Labour in Free-fall

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/new-poll-shows-lack-of-support-for-labour-party-721499.html

If this poll is correct it shows labour at only 4% down from 8%

Can Brendan Ryan be safe, with this level of abandonment of the Party.

And who will benefit in Fingal?

You'd imagine these Labour votes will gravitate to the SF and AAA/PFB candidates.

RobFowl

That labour poll result would make me think they might not get a seat here and would end up FG 2, FF1, SF 1 and Clare Daly

koutoubia

I really dont think either Ryan or O'Reilly will get a seat.
If they do they will scrape it.
The animosity towards FG and Lab is huge.

Anyway the way the numbers are falling they will probably get another shot within a year.
Dont see any hope of any stable govt forming this time.

martinn123

Well if it's a hung Dail, we will get another go within 6/8 weeks,

But do we get to Hang the present crowd ?

koutoubia

If Social Democrats had a candidate I would give them my number 1.
Pity as there isnt.
I wont even put a number near Daly this time after her antics at Shannon.

RobFowl

koutoubia wrote: »

If Social Democrats had a candidate I would give them my number 1.
Pity as there isnt.
I wont even put a number near Daly this time after her antics at Shannon.

Greens Daly and Reilly are prob my top 3
Will go all the way and give every candidate a preference,
Even going to give sf one for the first time.

Anger at what FF then FG and lab did is huge, conreibuted to a severe health problem in my case, only good friends and family got me well again

Will give Reilly a vote as I know him and feel he is a good man at heart.

Night all and whatever you do make sure you vote even if you write none of the above

jwwb

Under Dublin Fingal: Irish Mail on Sunday calls 1. Daly 2. O'Brien 3. Reilly 4. Ryan 5. O'Reilly with Farrell mentioned as being also in contention.

https://twitter.com/IrishMailSunday/status/701193375802732544

dslamjack

Poll's vary,fool's differ and politics remain and stay the same.
Why because public opinion will say one thing and people will do the complete opposite,this will be seen to be done next Friday,very little will change for the Coalition in Fingal and around the country.
People will err on the side of caution,as I've said before and the electorate are massively sore and angry at all the main parties,Man U fan's are livid at Van Gaal,but they will be at Old Trafford as usual on Saturday.
But looking at the turn out in Dublin yesterday for the Right 2 Water march on the eve of a general election with a crowd(Guards say 30,000,R2W say 80,000 people),and their were no other huge sporting or public event's on.
It's a far cry from a totally out raged electorate,and a long way off 250,000/500,000 you would have expected.
Well a week is an eternity in politic's,we're in to the quick step at the Ballroom of Chance.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/george-redmond-among-most-corrupt-officials-in-irish-history-1.2541848

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/enda-kenny-i-have-no-interest-in-the-trappings-of-power-34471544.html

dslamjack

UHL is one of several hospitals which will feature in a special RTE General Election, Prime Time Investigates programme, recorded by its team of undercover reporters.
It airs at 9.30pm this coming Monday night

Full Story...http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/emergency-department-at-limerick-hospital-is-absolute-hell-reveals-whistleblower-721655.html

Michael8000

martinn123 wrote: »

Are Labour in Free-fall

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/new-poll-shows-lack-of-support-for-labour-party-721499.html

If this poll is correct it shows labour at only 4% down from 8%

Can Brendan Ryan be safe, with this level of abandonment of the Party.

And who will benefit in Fingal?

Michael8000 wrote: »

You'd imagine these Labour votes will gravitate to the SF and AAA/PFB candidates.

Looks like the Shinners are going hard after the Labour vote.

Allyall

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fianna-f%C3%A1il-female-candidate-claims-intimidation-by-ff-supporters-1.2545680

A female Fianna Fáil candidate has claimed she was verbally assaulted by party members working for her running mate while out canvassing earlier this week.
Lorraine Clifford-Lee, who is standing for the party in Dublin Fingal, says supporters of Senator Darragh O’Brien intimidated some of her team during the canvass in Portmarnock, north Dublin on Tuesday..


...Ms Clifford-Lee was added to the party ticket in Dublin Fingal with Mr O’Brien, in part to ensure Fianna Fáil complied with gender quota rules which say that 30 per cent of all candidates must be female..


..She added the encounter lasted around five minutes, during which rivals shouted that she was not actually from Portmarnock and was a “blow in”..


..“We were going around minding our own business. It’s going really well and we are pushing for two seats. To be told I am not living in this area. Everyone knows where I live. I am very concerned about it. We’re both standing for the same party. We should be competing for two seats.”

Pathetic.

dslamjack

A female Fianna Fáil candidate has claimed she was verbally assaulted by party members working for her running mate while out canvassing earlier this week.
Lorraine Clifford-Lee, who is standing for the party in Dublin Fingal, says supporters of Senator Darragh O’Brien intimidated some of her team during the canvass in Portmarnock, north Dublin on Tuesday..

PATHETIC is the word for it,for a pretty pathetic election from a pretty pathetic shower all round,christ none of them would fill you with hope for the future.
Politics in this country really has hit a new low,their is none of them gleaming in glory,this election is like a long bus jouney,on a wet cold night on a cold bus with no heat and broken windows and steamed up windows,you just want it to be over and for the journey to end so the bus can carry on and you can get home,and let the sad old bus go on its sad old way.
One though that did come to mind is maybe they should't all be paid the same,when they are elected,eg those in government get 70%,opposition 60%,the rest of their pay/allowances should be based on attendance in the house ,voting record,bill's passed,a house wide bonus scheme for increased productivity ie,number of bill's passed,above previous sittings,set real KPI's and SOP(speed of passage) targets for them.
One thing is for sure,the Dail and how this country does politics need's to change Fast and quickly.
When this election is over the pressure for change needs to be kept up,before they have their first break for Easter and come back only to disappear again for the best part of the summer and the best part of the year.

AndyBoBandy

Has anyone had anyone at their door yet? I'm in Rush, and have not had a single candidate, or any of their 'team' at my door yet!

mahoganygas

AndyBoBandy wrote:

Has anyone had anyone at their door yet? I'm in Rush, and have not had a single candidate, or any of their 'team' at my door yet!

None yet. Plenty at Malahide train station the past two mornings though.

mahoganygas

I have been undecided throughout this election but I'm starting to form an idea of how I will vote. If I was to vote today this is probably how I would mark my card:

Reilly FG
Farrell FG
Ryan LAB
O'Brien GRE
O'Brien FF
Clifford Lee FF
Molloy REN

I'm undecided on who to give my 1 and 2. Who do you think would benefit better with my transfer?

If SD ran a candidate I'd consider putting them 3.

dslamjack

Terry Kelleher's canvassers were about in Lusk last night,no sign of himself,but they were very nice if a little cold.

jwwb

Interesting odds now on PP. Can someone cut and paste...

kennyb3

Singles Only. Applies to the named candidate to win a seat in the next General Election. All in run or not. Others on request.

Clare Daly (United Left) 1/80
Louise O'Reilly (Sinn Fein) 8/15
Terry Kelleher (AAA-PBP) 14/1
Darragh O'Brien (Fianna Fail) 1/25
Barry Martin (AAA-PBP) 11/4
Roslyn Fuller (Ind) 50/1
James Reilly (Fine Gael) 1/3
Tony Murphy (Ind) 6/1
Gerry Molloy (Renua) 50/1
Alan Farrell (Fine Gael) 4/11
Joe O'Brien (Green Party) 9/1
Marcus De Brun (Ind) 66/1
Brendan Ryan (Labour) 4/11
Lorraine Clifford-Lee (Fianna Fail) 10/1
Fergal O'Connell (Ind) 500/1

martinn123

kennyb3 wrote: »

Singles Only. Applies to the named candidate to win a seat in the next General Election. All in run or not. Others on request.

Clare Daly (United Left) 1/80
Louise O'Reilly (Sinn Fein) 8/15
Terry Kelleher (AAA-PBP) 14/1
Darragh O'Brien (Fianna Fail) 1/25
Barry Martin (AAA-PBP) 11/4
Roslyn Fuller (Ind) 50/1
James Reilly (Fine Gael) 1/3
Tony Murphy (Ind) 6/1
Gerry Molloy (Renua) 50/1
Alan Farrell (Fine Gael) 4/11
Joe O'Brien (Green Party) 9/1
Marcus De Brun (Ind) 66/1
Brendan Ryan (Labour) 4/11
Lorraine Clifford-Lee (Fianna Fail) 10/1
Fergal O'Connell (Ind) 500/1

If I am reading this right, PP are now calling the last 3 seats

Alan Farrell, 4/11
Brendan Ryan, 4/11
James Reilly 4/12

How has Reilly fared so bad in the eyes of the bookies, that he scrapes in last.

jwwb

Ladbrookes

Clare Daly - United Left
1/33
Darragh O'Brien - Fianna Fáil
1/16
James Reilly - Fine Gael
1/6
Brendan Ryan - Labour Party
1/5
Louise O'Reilly - Sinn Féin
4/7
Alan Farrell - Fine Gael
4/6
Barry Martin - AAA–PBP
4/1
Tony Murphy - Independent
5/1
Joe O'Brien - Green Party
7/1
Lorraine Clifford-Lee - Fianna Fáil
7/1
Terry Kelleher - AAA–PBP
9/1
Gerry Molloy - Renua Ireland
25/1
Roslyn Fuller - Independent
50/1
Marcus de Brun - Independent
50/1
Enda D.Reynolds - United People
100/1