FSA "How to maximise the new chips use" thread

Chesty08

FHFC wrote: »

Went for a strong front 8 with a view to using Aguero money to utilise the AOA chip, like many have done.

I'd been suggesting GW11 or 12 and 11 was the one for me as my defence was:
Moreno (che), Naughton (ARS), Souare (inj), Martin (MCI) and Bellerin (swa).
Not expecting more than 2 points from any of those except Bellerin and my 2 defs got clean sheets to put the icing on the cake.

My front 8 of Sterling, KDB, Mane, Mahrez and Sanchez, Pelle, Lukaku and Vardy would have seen me bench Mahrez like many did and play Moreno in 343 so using AOA gained me 13 points.

Is this the highest score gained by AOA?

Does anyone know if you can use the WC and one of your other chips in the one week? Probably not - considering using my BB the week of a DGW when I wildcard in players from teams in that DGW

jimmii

Chesty08 wrote: »

Is this the highest score gained by AOA?

Does anyone know if you can use the WC and one of your other chips in the one week? Probably not - considering using my BB the week of a DGW when I wildcard in players from teams in that DGW

Only one chip per week. Seen a few bigger scores posted on FFS but it's definitely up there.

SantryRed

Playing my AOA chip this weekend. My defenders are Nyom, Bertrand, Dawson, Bellerin and Richards.

I really like the look of Scott Sinclair on Monday against Arsenal so I'm hoping he'll hold his place again this week. Leaves me with the following team:

Ruddy (SWA)
Bertrand (sun), Dawson (mnu)
Sinclair (MCI), Payet (EVE), De Bruyne (vil), Sanchez (TOT), Mahrez (LEI)
Pelle (sun), Martial (WBA), Ighalo (lei)

Subs: McCarthy, Bellerin, Nyom, Richards



Now to decide on who to captain :pac:

OneColdHand

SantryRed wrote: »

Playing my AOA chip this weekend. My defenders are Nyom, Bertrand, Dawson, Bellerin and Richards.

I really like the look of Scott Sinclair on Monday against Arsenal so I'm hoping he'll hold his place again this week. Leaves me with the following team:

Ruddy (SWA)
Bertrand (sun), Dawson (mnu)
Sinclair (MCI), Payet (EVE), De Bruyne (vil), Sanchez (TOT), Mahrez (LEI)
Pelle (sun), Martial (WBA), Ighalo (lei)

Subs: McCarthy, Bellerin, Nyom, Richards



Now to decide on who to captain :pac:

I think that's a poor use of the AOA. A villa player against city is extemely unlikely to get anything. I'd say Nyom has a better chance of a clean sheet.

SantryRed

OneColdHand wrote: »

I think that's a poor use of the AOA. A villa player against city is extemely unlikely to get anything. I'd say Nyom has a better chance of a clean sheet.

City have conceded a goal in 7 of their last 8 games. They haven't looked as defensively solid either. Throw in the new manager buzz at Villa and I think it's worth a punt. I don't really think this chip is valuable and you could go through the whole season without ever seeing an opportunity (you'll see some in hindsight definitely though).

billymitchell

Would it not be best to hold on to these chips for a double game weeks, or am I mis-interpreting how and when they can be used?

Triple captain: 3 x 2 games
AOA: Potentially 8 DGW attackers
Bench boost: Potentially 30 players playing that week

Edit: Ignore, if I read the earlier posts on page 1, I would have gotten my answer

Iused2likebusts

billymitchell wrote: »

Would it not be best to hold on to these chips for a double game weeks, or am I mis-interpreting how and when they can be used?

Triple captain: 3 x 2 games
AOA: Potentially 8 DGW attackers
Bench boost: Potentially 30 players playing that week

Triple captain and bench boost yes. Aoa is the least valuable and comes down to luck a bit as one of your defenders can just as easily outscore your 8th attacker.

AdMMM

I posted on the Transfer thread but had no joy in feedback.

I'm thinking of using AOA this week by getting rid of my 2 point bench fodder in Wanyama and getting in Coutinho instead. I think this is the only opportunity I have to have a strong front eight this season because once I get Aguero in a couple of weeks time, I'll be forced to get Wanyama back (or go for Stanislas).

Is this a somewhat okay decision?

alchemist33

AdMMM wrote: »

I posted on the Transfer thread but had no joy in feedback.

I'm thinking of using AOA this week by getting rid of my 2 point bench fodder in Wanyama and getting in Coutinho instead. I think this is the only opportunity I have to have a strong front eight this season because once I get Aguero in a couple of weeks time, I'll be forced to get Wanyama back (or go for Stanislas).

Is this a somewhat okay decision?

Yup.

Other rationale to use it would be if you had only two fit defenders, but then you'd likely have a poor 8th attacker.

ElTel

Thinking of using AOA chip.
So would benching Ake (Sakhn and Ward other subs) and playing my Fr8 be a good move this week?
Mahrez Ozil/Firmino Alli Payet KDB
Aguero Vardy Lukaku

Wouldl be benching Ozil (or Lukaku if I bring in Firmino) otherwise.
Thanking you in advance.

Iused2likebusts

ElTel wrote: »

Thinking of using AOA chip.
So would benching Ake (Sakhn and Ward other subs) and playing my Fr8 be a good move this week?
Mahrez Ozil/Firmino Alli Payet KDB
Aguero Vardy Lukaku

Wouldl be benching Ozil (or Lukaku if I bring in Firmino) otherwise.
Thanking you in advance.

Great week to use it.

sheroman01

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Great week to use it.

It seemed so :P! Such a waste. Alli with 2, Ozil 0, Lukaku 2. Ah well, it's more of a punt-y chip, wouldn't think many will benefit hugely from it.

FrClintPower

sheroman01 wrote: »

It seemed so :P! Such a waste. Alli with 2, Ozil 0, Lukaku 2. Ah well, it's more of a punt-y chip, wouldn't think many will benefit hugely from it.

I'm just keeping it in case, for some bizarre reason, I only have two playing defenders.

ElTel

ElTel wrote: »

Thinking of using AOA chip.
So would benching Ake (Sakho and Ward other subs) and playing my Fr8 be a good move this week?
Mahrez Ozil/Firmino Alli Payet KDB
Aguero Vardy Lukaku

Wouldl be benching Ozil (or Lukaku if I bring in Firmino) otherwise.
Thanking you in advance.

No points lost or gained but chip is gone, No transfers used up and have 2 FTs this week.

Ziegler1988

Played AOA this GW. Bit more complicated since I only moved to a strong front 8 to use it this week and navigate blanks but would have benched Alli (5 points) or Payet (13 points) and ended up benching Fuchs (5 points). So no gain or 8 point gain from the chip

FHFC

iroced wrote: »

But you're not playing the game alone and comparing your outcome with what it could have been had you better theoretically used your chips and made your choices. You're competing against 3.7m randomers! And in mini-leagues, you're competing against real opponents and I don't understand how you can say their choices don't matter at all.

My point is not to make a "rule" of the above example but I always found that your theoretical ("bustian" should become an FPL adjective ) view of the game is incomplete and/or idealistic.

(*) To give my above example even more context, 2 seasons ago I battled for the whole season with a friend of mine to eventually win our mini-league by 7 pts. For the sake of my obsessive demonstration, let's say I won by 4 pts instead. We had a similar enough team for the whole season. The difference was a couple of (C) choices and a few differentials. So, if I apply our situaton then to my example with FHFC, my "5 relative pts gain" over him from our TC choice gave me top spot despite a lower absolute TC return.

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Their choices don't matter because I can't control their choices I can only control what I do. Of course I prefer if others choices don't work out but there is nothing I can do about it. You try and maximize your overall score and the best way of doing that is by putting tc on the player you think will score the most points in the game week you think it will get you most points.

I agree with Busts but also agree with Iroced that he's not going far enough.

Yes you can only pick your own TC, and Bust is spot on in terms of analysing the differences in the outcomes of the TC against the options YOU have for playing it.

But the other players "choices don't matter" bit is completely wrong imo. Yes you can't control their choices, but in terms of your OR or your mini league rival, their choices matter entirely, and comparing how you maximised your TC return to your rival's, or in terms of OR to every other FPL manager is very relevant.

iroced wrote: »

Let's say you and I have the exact same team for the whole season, bar GW37. In 37 you get Coutinho & Lanzini. I get Payet & Milner. Let's say Lanzini & Milner score the same. And in 38 our different players score the same again. Let's also assume we BB & AOA the same GW (which is not 37) and we always captain the same players bar GW33 you TC Lukaku (I just (C) him) and 37 I TC Payet, you (C) Coutinho.
Or to make it more realistic let's say we did not make all these same choices neither had the same team but ended up on the exact same amount of pts (*) and our season comes down to your Lukaku TC vs my Lukaku (C) in 33 and my Payet TC vs your Coutinho (C) in 37.

With the previous figures. Lukaku 20 pts in 33. Coutinho 10 pts in 37, Payet 15 pts in 37.

GW33: you get 60 pts from Lukaku. I only get 40. You gain 20 pts on me.
GW37: you get 20 pts from Coutinho. I get 45 pts from Payet. I gain 25 pts on you.
Your TC was "absolutely" 5 pts better than mine. But "relatively" I'll finish the season 5 pts ahead of you because I "relatively" gained more from my TC GW.

I think this "case study" was what lougal had in mind in his example.

@Iroced, sorry but your analysis, which is trying to look at TC outcomes, is still irrelevant because you are including our different choice of "normal captain" in your outcome. It is a mathematical fact, not an opinion, that we all only get ONE TC bonus per season so the difference between us based on when we activate the TC chip is based ONLY on the difference in that "C" number.

In the example you give here is how I would break it down (reminding that I've to date called your Normal Captain bonus "B" and TC bonus "C"):

• In GW33 we both got the same "B" and I also got my one off "C" of 20 points because I activated my TC chip on my captain selection.
• In GW37 I lost 5 points due to my decision to NORMAL captain Coutinho rather than Payet - you gain 5 "B" points only based on us picking a different player that we thought would score highest in GW37.
• In GW37 you also got your once off "C" bonus of 15 because you also activated the TC chip on your GW37 captain.

So in terms of our decisions when to activate the triple captain chip - I have gained 5 points on you by picking a higher scoring player from the 38 weeks I had to choose from.
Separately, in terms of our normal captain choices you gained 5 points on me because you picked a higher scoring captain for your "B" points in GW37.

In you example we will end up the same relatively speaking based solely on the captain and triple captain bonus for those 2 gameweek. You will have made more ground on me in GW37 because of a better NORMAL captain choice that week. The calculation is:
You got 20(B GW33) + 15 (B GW37)+ 15 (C GW37) = 50
I got 20(B GW33) + 20 (C GW37)+ 10 (B GW37) = 50

How we finish relative to each other will be affected by our selection of the other players in our teams, any by our varying captain choices in the other 37 gameweeks.

The fundamental formula here is that your season points total is made up of:

TS (team selections points - what you get for having the right players in your 11 each week)
CP (captain picks, the EXTRA points you get for the one players extra score you get 38 times in the season)
TC (the ONE triple captain score you get)
BB (the 4 extra player scores you get the week you BB)
(I'm going to ignore AOA as it only changes your weakest defender to your weakest attacker)

So TOTAL FPL Points for the season = TS + CP + TC + BB

The CP captain pick points are based on you selecting from the viable captain option in the given gameweek and it is here that ownership, differential or play safe etc affect the total CP number at the end of the season.

But for the TC number, it only matters that your number is biggest, i.e. that of all the players you select to determine your TC bonus you pick the highest one available across the 38 weeks. Differential or ownership have no relevance.

The more I look at this analysis the more I see that the impact of the BB and TC chips in terms of your overall season is vastly overrated - just like Busts said a long time ago.

iroced

A follow up from post #12 from this thread

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Their choices don't matter because I can't control their choices I can only control what I do. Of course I prefer if others choices don't work out but there is nothing I can do about it. You try and maximize your overall score and the best way of doing that is by putting tc on the player you think will score the most points in the game week you think it will get you most points. In your example FHFC is still going to captain Coutinho over Payet so thats irrelevant.

Original point was "considering everyone will captain Lukaku this week, am I not better going for a more differential TC in 37?"

FHFC & yourself replied that in theory it doesn't matter. What matters is how much your TC will gain you when you'll play it.

I tried to give an example to ilustrate how lougal "unmathematically correct" idea could work (without implying unrealistic returns), partly based on my season 2 years ago.

Now you tell me it's irrelevant because the GW37 TC don't suit the theory. Are we all gonna (C) the same player in 37 like we'll end up doing this week? I'd be very surprised if so!

Anyway, I'll say again that I agree with the/your theory but I'm willing to defend lougal's original point that deserves more credit, in my opinion. Because 1) it could very well match your theory (Payet or someone else could very well get a better GW37 return than Lukaku in GW33) and 2) even if this decision fails in absolute terms, it could still work out in the end if the differential GW37 TC is succeeds.

FHFC wrote: »

In the example you give here is how I would break it down (reminding that I've to date called your Normal Captain bonus "B" and TC bonus "C"):

• In GW33 we both got the same "B" and I also got my one off "C" of 20 points because I activated my TC chip on my captain selection.
• In GW37 I lost 5 points due to my decision to NORMAL captain Coutinho rather than Payet - you gain 5 "B" points only based on us picking a different player that we thought would score highest in GW37.
• In GW37 you also got your once off "C" bonus of 15 because you also activated the TC chip on your GW37 captain.

So in terms of our decisions when to activate the triple captain chip - I have gained 5 points on you by picking a higher scoring player from the 38 weeks I had to choose from.
Separately, in terms of our normal captain choices you gained 5 points on me because you picked a higher scoring captain for your "B" points in GW37.

Right. This is exactly what I was willing to mean. I phrased it wrong (I'm gonna take the excuse that after all I'm French so you try writing this down in Molière's language now :pac:) and yeah did mix up TC with C but yeah that's precsiely why I'm insisting on lougal's original post that does deserve credit, even if like mine, his post was not mathematically correctly put .

If I go into politics one day, I'll ask you to write my speeches !


- edit -
Just to come back to "our" example, In GW37 don't I gain 5 A pts on you too since we don't own the same captain?

FHFC

iroced wrote: »

A follow up from post #12 from this thread


Original point was "considering everyone will captain Lukaku this week, am I not better going for a more differential TC in 37?"

FHFC & yourself replied that in theory it doesn't matter. What matters is how much your TC will gain you when you'll play it.

I tried to give an example to ilustrate how lougal "unmathematically correct" idea could work (without implying unrealistic returns), partly based on my season 2 years ago.

Now you tell me it's irrelevant because the GW37 TC don't suit the theory. Are we all gonna (C) the same player in 37 like we'll end up doing this week? I'd be very surprised if so!

Anyway, I'll say again that I agree with the/your theory but I'm willing to defend lougal's original point that deserves more credit, in my opinion. Because 1) it could very well match your theory (Payet or someone else could very well get a better GW37 return than Lukaku in GW33) and 2) even if this decision fails in absolute terms, it could still work out in the end if the differential GW37 TC is succeeds.

iroced wrote: »

Right. This is exactly what I was willing to mean. I phrased it wrong (I'm gonna take the excuse that after all I'm French so you try writing this down in Molière's language now :pac:) and yeah did mix up TC with C but yeah that's precsiely why I'm insisting on lougal original post that does deserve credit, even if like mine, his post was not mathematically correctly put .

If I go into politics one day, you'll be the one writing my speeches !


- edit -
Just to come back to "our" example, In GW37 don't I gain 5 A pts on you too since we don't own the same captain?

As above, Lougal's original point (and your example) is relevant to the normal captain bonus, not to the TC bonus - edit see bold above. This is my point, you (and lougal) are mixing up TC and C (or B and C )

As for your edit, yes I didn't notice that in your example we didn't own the opposing captains. So you are confusing the matter even further by including Player ownership (TS) points as well as normal captain (CP) points in your analysis of Triple Captain (TC) outcomes!!!

I really need to do some work (for which I get paid) now.

lougal88

iroced wrote: »

A follow up from post #12 from this thread


Original point was "considering everyone will captain Lukaku this week, am I not better going for a more differential TC in 37?"

FHFC & yourself replied that in theory it doesn't matter. What matters is how much your TC will gain you when you'll play it.

I tried to give an example to ilustrate how lougal "unmathematically correct" idea could work (without implying unrealistic returns), partly based on my season 2 years ago.

Now you tell me it's irrelevant because the GW37 TC don't suit the theory. Are we all gonna (C) the same player in 37 like we'll end up doing this week? I'd be very surprised if so!

Anyway, I'll say again that I agree with the/your theory but I'm willing to defend lougal's original point that deserves more credit, in my opinion. Because 1) it could very well match your theory (Payet or someone else could very well get a better GW37 return than Lukaku in GW33) and 2) even if this decision fails in absolute terms, it could still work out in the end if the differential GW37 TC is succeeds.



Right. This is exactly what I was willing to mean. I phrased it wrong (I'm gonna take the excuse that after all I'm French so you try writing this down in Molière's language now :pac:) and yeah did mix up TC with C but yeah that's precsiely why I'm insisting on lougal's original post that does deserve credit, even if like mine, his post was not mathematically correctly put .

If I go into politics one day, I'll ask you to write my speeches !


- edit -
Just to come back to "our" example, In GW37 don't I gain 5 A pts on you too since we don't own the same captain?

WHAT HAVE I STARTED???

Iused2likebusts

iroced wrote: »

A follow up from post #12 from this thread


Original point was "considering everyone will captain Lukaku this week, am I not better going for a more differential TC in 37?"

FHFC & yourself replied that in theory it doesn't matter. What matters is how much your TC will gain you when you'll play it.

I tried to give an example to ilustrate how lougal "unmathematically correct" idea could work (without implying unrealistic returns), partly based on my season 2 years ago.

Now you tell me it's irrelevant because the GW37 TC don't suit the theory. Are we all gonna (C) the same player in 37 like we'll end up doing this week? I'd be very surprised if so!

Anyway, I'll say again that I agree with the/your theory but I'm willing to defend lougal's original point that deserves more credit, in my opinion. Because 1) it could very well match your theory (Payet or someone else could very well get a better GW37 return than Lukaku in GW33) and 2) even if this decision fails in absolute terms, it could still work out in the end if the differential GW37 TC is succeeds.

Im going to do what Im going to do so I cant worry about what I couldve done as thats based on the outcome not on the decision I had to make at the time. Im going to pick the week when I think TC is best and in the other week when I dont TC Im going to pick the captain that I think is best. It makes no difference to my overall score what happens with other peoples picks. Of course it affects my rank if someone elses pick is successful or not but I cant control that. If im going to TC lukaku this week and captain coutinho in gw 37 thats all I can control. Its my choice to captain coutinho over payet if payet scores highly there is nothing I can do about that. All i can be concerned about is did lukaku in 33 get a higher score than coutinho in 37. If he did I have to be happy as my overall score will be higher than if I reversed the decision. If payet returns a monster score what can I do I wasnt prepared to captain him anyway.
TBH you are approaching it from the statistico maximum pts angle.

iroced

lougal88 wrote: »

WHAT HAVE I STARTED???

Well, an interesting debate (at least to me) since I can't TC Lukaku on 33 (I'm currently WCing) and, after my infamous WC fail last GW, you somehow boosted me up towards a hopeful gigantically successful GW37 TC :pac:!

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Im going to do what Im going to do so I cant worry about what I couldve done as thats based on the outcome not on the decision I had to make at the time. Im going to pick the week when I think TC is best and in the other week when I dont TC Im going to pick the captain that I think is best. It makes no difference to my overall score what happens with other peoples picks. Of course it affects my rank if someone elses pick is successful or not but I cant control that. If im going to TC lukaku this week and captain coutinho in gw 37 thats all I can control. Its my choice to captain coutinho over payet if payet scores highly there is nothing I can do about that. All i can be concerned about is did lukaku in 33 get a higher score than coutinho in 37. If he did I have to be happy as my overall score will be higher than if I reversed the decision. If payet returns a monster score what can I do I wasnt prepared to captain him anyway.
TBH you are approaching it from the statistico maximum pts angle.

I think (before I go do some work) that you have hit on the difference between you and Iroced here.

You are talking about maximizing your personal score.

He (and I) is talking about improving your overall rank by having a better TC outcome than the "herd".

You're both right!

lougal88

iroced wrote: »

Well, an interesting debate (at least to me) since I can't TC Lukaku on 33 (I'm currently WCing) and, after my infamous WC fail last GW, you somehow boosted me up towards a hopeful gigantically successful GW37 TC :pac:!

I certainly started a debate!

And thank you kind sir for wording my failed argument a lot better than I managed in my mother tongue :P

Basically I think that although FHFC points out the TC is an absolute, and if my TC performs better than yours/others it can be viewed as a win, I still think there is more to be gained by captaining the player when most others will captain him anyway and put the TC on a slight differential.

Of course it can blow up and my punty TC can fail, but that's what this whole season is about. For the same reason I captained Wijnaldum in a home game just before Xmas. Of course I got the wrong game and missed one of his explosions, but no risk no reward.

iroced

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

TBH you are approaching it from the statistico maximum pts angle.

. The statistico website is all about you and your choices. It actually tells you what were your best picks. Maybe you did not consider them so fair enough you missed them out but everytime you were on a 50/50 decisions it tells you if you got it right or wrong.

I don't think that's the approach I expressed neither it is how I play the game. I just said that I don't agree with the "other people choices don't matter". FHFC nailed my point down in his last post.

In fairness I haven't checked the statictico website for ages now. I'll definitely save my season outcome since I do think there are interesting figures to be analysed there. I used to track and build a much simpler file myself and it helped me change some tactics (e.g. GKs, (C) choices like a default one or changing every week, etc...) so now I can relax since a website does the job for me .

PARlance

I'm going to partition for Iroced, FHFC and Busts to have to include a tl;dr at the end of their posts. I actually went a bit cross-eyed there

Iused2likebusts

FHFC wrote: »

I think (before I go do some work) that you have hit on the difference between you and Iroced here.

You are talking about maximizing your personal score.

He (and I) is talking about improving your overall rank by having a better TC outcome than the "herd".

You're both right!

I get what your saying but again I cant control what the herd do or the outcome. Like everyone Id love to have a TC that very few have and the herds captain fails. Im going to pick whoever I think is best so there is no point beating myself up about what I could have done. Ill make my decision based on the info I have available like every decision you make in the game some work out some dont. The best thing to do is always pick who you think will score the most points unless you are trying to close off a league near the end.

Iused2likebusts

iroced wrote: »

. The statistico website is all about you and your choices. It actually tells you what were your best picks. Maybe you did not consider them so fair enough you missed them out but everytime you were on a 50/50 decisions it tells you if you got it right or wrong.

I don't think that's the approach I expressed neither it is how I play the game. I just said that I don't agree with the "other people choices don't matter". FHFC nailed my point down in his last post.

In fairness I haven't checked the statictico website for ages now. I'll definitely save my season outcome since I do think there are interesting figures to be analysed there. I used to track and build a much simpler file myself and it helped me change some tactics (e.g. GKs, (C) choices like a default one or changing every week, etc...) so now I can relax since a website does the job for me .

It was just you made reference to my theory being like the statistico approach whereas Id feel the way you are coming at it is a statistico approach. Im not saying you approach the playing of the game in that way. Just I feel your theory is based on the best possible outcome which is beyond our control as we have to make our choices before the event.

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

I get what your saying but again I cant control what the herd do or the outcome. Like everyone Id love to have a TC that very few have and the herds captain fails. Im going to pick whoever I think is best so there is no point beating myself up about what I could have done. Ill make my decision based on the info I have available like every decision you make in the game some work out some dont. The best thing to do is always pick who you think will score the most points unless you are trying to close off a league near the end.

This is a crucial point. I think as I said in the captain thread that by the looks if it the TC will for a lot of serious players be a dogfight between Lukaku in 33, Sanchez in 34 and Payet in 37.

While one or other of those could blank (2 pts) and another hit 2 hat tricks (40 plus points) its probably a fair chance there will not be that big a variance across the three. Maybe 10 or 15 points (e.g. Lukaku 10, Sanchez 25, Payet 15).

So the ultimate gain on a high proportion of serious players from this fabled TC chip could be as little as 10 or 15 points. Or to put it another way just over 0.5% of your average season total of around 2,300 or 2,400pts. Even if you did get a 40pt TC it would still only be likely to be 20 points or so above the average of all TC scores.

Your normal captain totals could be anything from 8% to 12.5% of your season total and are therefore infinitely more important than your TC.

In the TS + CP + BB + TC formula the latter 2 are only maybe 1% of the total.

I'm thinking of writing a proper article on this which I may submit to FFS.

iroced

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Just I feel your theory is based on the best possible outcome which is beyond our control as we have to make our choices before the event.

To be fair my approach of this game would be:
- your "theory" first (maximising my squad pts)
- "mine" second (assessing the relative best timing of my choices compare with most players)
- assess if both concur or not
- make my choice(s) accordingly depending whether I fancy my own opinion or I feel better going with the "crowd".

After all we're having captain polls every week, we know the FFS poll (C) figures, we discuss our transfers, we follow the popular moves (via the price changes thread also), we look at our rivals teams, etc... so, in a way, we do have a little bit of control on everyone else's playing of the game in the sense that we know many of their moves/choices. And we do, more or less, take them into account, even yourself!

FHFC

Had to get this down and out of my head....

Any thoughts/feedback on this as an article summing up the possible overvaluation of the new Chips....

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B6agCUvr8Q1GV24yRzEwWVN1UHM

Shedite27

FHFC wrote: »

This is a crucial point. I think as I said in the captain thread that by the looks if it the TC will for a lot of serious players be a dogfight between Lukaku in 33, Sanchez in 34 and Payet in 37.

While one or other of those could blank (2 pts) and another hit 2 hat tricks (40 plus points) its probably a fair chance there will not be that big a variance across the three. Maybe 10 or 15 points (e.g. Lukaku 10, Sanchez 25, Payet 15).

So the ultimate gain on a high proportion of serious players from this fabled TC chip could be as little as 10 or 15 points. Or to put it another way just over 0.5% of your average season total of around 2,300 or 2,400pts. Even if you did get a 40pt TC it would still only be likely to be 20 points or so above the average of all TC scores.

Your normal captain totals could be anything from 8% to 12.5% of your season total and are therefore infinitely more important than your TC.

In the TS + CP + BB + TC formula the latter 2 are only maybe 1% of the total.

I'm thinking of writing a proper article on this which I may submit to FFS.

So you're saying we should all captain Bolassie?

Iused2likebusts

FHFC wrote: »

Had to get this down and out of my head....

Any thoughts/feedback on this as an article summing up the possible overvaluation of the new Chips....

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B6agCUvr8Q1GV24yRzEwWVN1UHM

Excellent and spot on

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Excellent and spot on

You should be listed under references in fairness! You started grumbling about this months ago!!

iroced

FHFC wrote: »

Had to get this down and out of my head....

Any thoughts/feedback on this as an article summing up the possible overvaluation of the new Chips....

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B6agCUvr8Q1GV24yRzEwWVN1UHM

Great post FHFC. Think you called PS TS from the "Soggy Chips??" section. And didn't you mix up your BB & TC numbers in your final formula?

-

Just to post a general comment about it.

In theory and overall you're right, these new chips only represent a small percentage of our overall score. But this small percentage could be more valuable than you/we'd think.

I'd refer to 2 examples from my previous seasons. I know. Different stories. But the boosts I got were also tiny percentages of my overall score.

• 2011/12. DGW36. A late WC got me 129 pts (avg 69, highest 186) that shot me up to 20k from 50k. The team I had picked helped me secure a top 20k finish.

• 2013/14. DGW31. 8 pts hits to stock up on DGW players. 175 (-8) (avg 107, highest 205). I was stagnating between 1k & 2k for 4-5 GWs. That got me to my highest ever OR (767th) and gave me a chance to finish inside top 1k. I eventually failed but that was down to later choices (I mean not because of my DGW team).

So alright, it may only represent 1 or 2% of your overall score, but these 1 or 2% could be crucial in both your overall rank and private leagues finish!

FHFC

iroced wrote: »

Great post FHFC. Think you called PS TS from the "Soggy Chips??" section. And didn't you mix up your BB & TC numbers in your final formula?

-

Just to post a general comment about it.

In theory and overall you're right, these new chips only represent a small percentage of our overall score. But this small percentage could be more valuable than you/we'd think.

I'd refer to 2 examples from my previous seasons. I know. Different stories. But the boosts I got were also tiny percentages of my overall score.

• 2011/12. DGW36. A late WC got me 129 pts (avg 69, highest 186) that shot me up to 20k from 50k. The team I had picked helped me secure a top 20k finish.

• 2013/14. DGW31. 8 pts hits to stock up on DGW players. 175 (-8) (avg 107, highest 205). I was stagnating between 1k & 2k for 4-5 GWs. That got me to my highest ever OR (767th) and gave me a chance to finish inside top 1k. I eventually failed but that was down to later choices (I mean not because of my DGW team).

So alright, it may only represent 1 or 2% of your overall score, but these 1 or 2% could be crucial in both your overall rank and private leagues finish!

Thanks for the proof read.

I agree that 1 or 2% or 40ish points could be crucial for mini league finish. But the point is that the amount of effort, planning and debate going into when/how to BB or TC is disproportionate. It has become as if these chips will have a huge effect on how and where we finish whereas they have minimal impact compared to getting your regular captains right. I made 2 or 3 mistakes or 50/50 calls costing me 50 to 60 points this season which is more than I expect to get from BB & TC together.

BTW, your examples prove my case on the chips better still - your good selections in a non chip environment netted you 60ish above the GW average on 2 occasions. Again more than I'd say most will get from their 2 chips we have all been obsessing over.

Iused2likebusts

PARlance wrote: »

I'm going to partition for Iroced, FHFC and Busts to have to include a tl;dr at the end of their posts. I actually went a bit cross-eyed there

wait till gw35 when someone with 10 players suggests a 4 pt hit isnt really a 4 pt hit;)

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

wait till gw35 when someone with 10 players suggests a 4 pt hit isnt really a 4 pt hit;)

iroced

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

wait till gw35 when someone with 10 players suggests a 4 pt hit isnt really a 4 pt hit;)

"absolute" vs "relative" could be the summary of all our debates :cool:.

ElTel

FHFC wrote: »

Had to get this down and out of my head....

Any thoughts/feedback on this as an article summing up the possible overvaluation of the new Chips....

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B6agCUvr8Q1GV24yRzEwWVN1UHM

Liked it but after reading it (having followed the discussion here) feel a summary of this debate here would be useful in the article as it focuses the reader to your precise point. Also feel you should stress a bit more the time spent obsessing over them and perhaps how they influence when WCs are played.

Neamhshuntasach

Lets look at potential gains from a well played BB. Assuming you play it in a DGW with a squad packed with Double players you are likely to get 4 players extra with 2 matches each. As these are the players you would otherwise bench it won’t be the big hitters scores we are counting here.

The part above is what i wouldn't agree with. Especially the last part. I wildcarded and had a very healthy team value. I haven't made huge changes as i had a number of players people are bringing in. And in my opinion I have upgraded my "bench players" taking fixtures and form into account as well as just being DGW players.

For example,

Courtois, Hennessy - Out
Mignolet, Robles - In

Azpi, Wollscheid, Williams and Alderwerield - Out
Smalling, Bellerin, Gabriel, Evans - In

Siggy, Eriksen, Westwood - Out
Coutinho, Payet, Barkley - In

Kane, Vardy - Out
Lukaku, Martial - In

They are all transfers I could have made in a single game week and when you take the extra game into account my bench players have been improved. I'm not crazy about Barkley and may change. But he's an upgrade on Westwood for sure. Also add to the fact he has 3 extra games than Westwood. I'm also left with 9 players for GW35 with 2 FT. Assuming no injuries I should field 11 with no hits.

I agree with the essence of what you are saying and there probably is too much stock being put into the doubles and chips. But if you can create a balanced team without disrupting things too much. It can work here better than any other spot in the season.

FHFC

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

Lets look at potential gains from a well played BB. Assuming you play it in a DGW with a squad packed with Double players you are likely to get 4 players extra with 2 matches each. As these are the players you would otherwise bench it won’t be the big hitters scores we are counting here.

The part above is what i wouldn't agree with. Especially the last part. I wildcarded and had a very healthy team value. I haven't made huge changes as i had a number of players people are bringing in. And in my opinion I have upgraded my "bench players" taking fixtures and form into account as well as just being DGW players.

For example,

Courtois, Hennessy - Out
Mignolet, Robles - In

Azpi, Wollscheid, Williams and Alderwerield - Out
Smalling, Bellerin, Gabriel, Evans - In

Siggy, Eriksen, Westwood - Out
Coutinho, Payet, Barkley - In

Kane, Vardy - Out
Lukaku, Martial - In

They are all transfers I could have made in a single game week and when you take the extra game into account my bench players have been improved. I'm not crazy about Barkley and may change. But he's an upgrade on Westwood for sure. Also add to the fact he has 3 extra games than Westwood. I'm also left with 9 players for GW35 with 2 FT. Assuming no injuries I should field 11 with no hits.

I agree with the essence of what you are saying and there probably is too much stock being put into the doubles and chips. But if you can create a balanced team without disrupting things too much. It can work here better than any other spot in the season.

I'm in no way debating that a dgw after wildcarding is not the best way to maximise the BB. The statement you quoted simply says that the 4 extra players, your bench, that I am counting as your BB extra points are going to be (from your example) the likes of Gabriel, Evans and Barkley rather than Aguero and Sanchez. Hence I went on to use 4ppg as a metric rather than a higher figure you might hope for from a 'big hitter'.

steve_r

I enjoyed the article. Hopefully it gets a wider audience.

The big takeaway I took from it was the importance (and difficulty) of captaincy choices. There's acres of good coverage on this forum about DGW planning, gw transfers, use of chips etc but I'm starting to feel that level of detail should be geared towards the captaincy choices.

There was a thread a while back on people's sucess rate picking captains which depressed the hell out of me. I think it's a very hard thing to get right. My own approach has been defensive in that I stick with the pack, and the pack tends to go with either a premium player (e.g Aguero) or a player with a very good fixture (H to Aston Villa). Most weeks I end up wishing I went with the likes of Payet, or a defender who is playing well who chips in with the odd assist (e.g. Fuchs this week). Generally a few of my squad will outscore my captain.


Back on topic regarding the new chips, it will be interesting to see how it all washes out in the end. I'd agree with the thrust of the article in thinking it'll be marginal in the end with other factors having a much greater importance.

It's a game within a game for me. It seems at this stage the accepted forum consensus is WC, then either BB or TC in a DGW. I think the logic is sound, but if the DGW's turn out to be a damp squib then maybe people will lean towards a different approach next year!

FHFC

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2016/04/06/chips-versus-bread-butter-fantasy-management/

Iused2likebusts

FHFC wrote: »

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2016/04/06/chips-versus-bread-butter-fantasy-management/

Good stuff I wouldn't have let them know about the number 1 fantasy football resource this forum though.

Iused2likebusts

Reading some of the comments on it. People again are failing to take into account that the people that arent using the chips now used them at another timeand benefitted from it then.

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Reading some of the comments on it. People again are failing to take into account that the people that arent using the chips now used them at another timeand benefitted from it then.

Ony getting time to look at it now as was in meetings. Most of the comments are quite favourable. Was actually expecting it to be torn apart a bit by the FFS heads.

And how could I not credit the FSA. Don't think we're gonna have a huge influx of FFS lads looking to pick our brains somehow!

iroced

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Reading some of the comments on it. People again are failing to take into account that the people that arent using the chips now used them at another timeand benefitted from it then.

Benefitted or not !!!

How many wasted chips have all you guys been posting each week. Of course there were a couple of Aguero vs Newcastle TC but for what I remember many were "wasted". And even if they weren't. You have to factor that... what is the exact figure? 50%? of the top 10k already used them. So someone like you who's well inside top 10k have a HUGE advantage on them. And people like me, way way behind have a tiny hope of making it with exceptional returns from the chips!

FHFC

iroced wrote: »

Benefitted or not !!!

How many wasted chips have all you guys been posting each week. Of course there were a couple of Aguero vs Newcastle TC but for what I remember many were "wasted". And even if they weren't. You have to factor that... what is the exact figure? 50%? of the top 10k already used them. So someone like you who's well inside top 10k have a HUGE advantage on them. And people like me, way way behind have a tiny hope of making it with exceptional returns from the chips!

Of course you have an advantage by having your chips from here forward. Which is what a lot of people are saying on Ffs and the article doesn't say you don't. If course you should try to maximise them and play them well.

My piece effectively just says we shouldn't build our whole season around them.

And if you did "waste" your TC it probably cost you maybe 20 points on average. The TC is just one extra captain score and messing it up is no worse that getting the captain wrong any given week.

Iused2likebusts

iroced wrote: »

Benefitted or not !!!

How many wasted chips have all you guys been posting each week. Of course there were a couple of Aguero vs Newcastle TC but for what I remember many were "wasted". And even if they weren't. You have to factor that... what is the exact figure? 50%? of the top 10k already used them. So someone like you who's well inside top 10k have a HUGE advantage on them. And people like me, way way behind have a tiny hope of making it with exceptional returns from the chips!

They should have benefitted whether they did or not we couldn't predict beforehand. The same way a person bb in 34 with 15 players should benefit. If they don't it doesn't make it a bad decision. I don't approach this game in terms of outcome I think of what should I do to give me the best chance. Anything can happen on any given game week. My worst gw rank of the season was probably the week of my second wildcard I had a strong team it was just one of those weeks when players didn't deliver. My thoughts on all these chips since Xmas when I really had a good think about it has remained the same.
Aoa use whenever it's of no benefit.
2nd wildcard hold for the dgws once you are happy with your team. If your not happy with your team play it as you should benefit in the short term to help offset the difficulties you may face around dgws.
Tc has to be played in a dgw. The people that got the monster score in a sgw from aguero still made the wrong decision Imo.
BB ideally is played in a dgw like 34 to give yourself maximum advantage with at least 13dgw players without decimating your gw35 team. If no wildcard play when the fixtures suit your squad. People with a wildcard a few weeks back were talking about playing BB with 5 sgw players. They had held the wildcard so long to only half go for it. This has changed the past week and a lot more teams have more dgw players now.
There is a train of thought that the late wildcard, gw 34 bb and Tc will bring a huge bonanza in pts. From where we are now it should and people should rise the rankings. The flip side of that is that when other people wildcarded , bb and Tc they should also have made gains which some people seem to be forgetting about.

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

2nd wildcard hold for the dgws once you are happy with your team. If your not happy with your team play it as you should benefit in the short term to help offset the difficulties you may face around dgws.

Exactly, I posted this on FFS earlier in the only comment I did put up under the article. Some people may have held on grimly to the wildcard with their team in trouble, in the expectation of this illusion of a huge DGW score. Playing a wildcard when it was needed may have gained more than the 60 points or so you might gain from the Wildcard/chip combo. You proved this, although Charlie fupping Daniels skews your scores a bit!!
In my case my team was flying in Jan and Feb, I won several monthly prizes, so it suited me to hold the WC.

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Tc has to be played in a dgw. The people that got the monster score in a sgw from aguero still made the wrong decision Imo.

Correct. Especially given his form at the time it was a daft decision. It may well up being the best result but you have to play the odds in this game and use it when statistically you're more likely to have a big score.