Ireland Team Talk/Gossip/Rumour Thread V

I've always found Rugby stats to be dubious at best. People always harp on about number of carries made. Is that not just being in the right place at the right time? The ball pops at you and you crash it up. That's what Stander did all day recently and he's being lauded for it. Is it really that impressive? Not a slight at him in particular, just that I find quoting stats in Rugby to be somewhat meaningless, unless you maybe tabulate it across a season. Another stat is meters made. Rob Kearney regularly tops that, but of course he does since he's a fullback. Useless stat.

jm08

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

You have to know how to interpret them though. Sure, Dev's effort looks good. But how long was he on the pitch for on Saturday? Compare with what Keith and Bowe were able to do with the limited time they had to do it. And they are the really standout stats from the above despite at first glance being seemingly overshadowed by better efforts.

Seem to remember Murray giving a key to his interpretations. He also does a
''Ruck involvements per minute of game time''. Keith Earls could be a flanker from those stats in comparison to other backs.

0.75 Richardt Strauss
0.72 Chris Henry
0.64 Nathan White
0.63 Rory Best
0.61 Jamie Heaslip
0.61 Jack McGrath
0.58 Mike Ross
0.57 Paul O’Connell
0.54 Devin Toner
0.51 Sean O’Brien
0.49 Peter O’Mahony
0.45 Iain Henderson
0.40 Cian Healy
0.31 Keith Earls
0.21 Dave Kearney
0.19 Robbie Henshaw
0.15 Tommy Bowe
0.11 Luke Fitzgerald
o.10 Rob Kearney
0.07 Ian Madigan
0.05 Conor Murray
0.04 Johnny Sexton

Neil3030

jm08 wrote: »

Seem to remember Murray giving a key to his interpretations. He also does a
''Ruck involvements per minute of game time''. Keith Earls could be a flanker from those stats in comparison to other backs.

0.75 Richardt Strauss
0.72 Chris Henry
0.64 Nathan White
0.63 Rory Best
0.61 Jamie Heaslip
0.61 Jack McGrath
0.58 Mike Ross
0.57 Paul O’Connell
0.54 Devin Toner
0.51 Sean O’Brien
0.49 Peter O’Mahony
0.45 Iain Henderson
0.40 Cian Healy
0.31 Keith Earls
0.21 Dave Kearney
0.19 Robbie Henshaw
0.15 Tommy Bowe
0.11 Luke Fitzgerald
o.10 Rob Kearney
0.07 Ian Madigan
0.05 Conor Murray
0.04 Johnny Sexton

Wasn't his dad one?

ClanofLams

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

You have to know how to interpret them though. Sure, Dev's effort looks good. But how long was he on the pitch for on Saturday? Compare with what Keith and Bowe were able to do with the limited time they had to do it. And they are the really standout stats from the above despite at first glance being seemingly overshadowed by better efforts.

Those stats are from the world cup game v France not last Saturday.

CMOTDibbler

Deleted User wrote: »

I've always found Rugby stats to be dubious at best. People always harp on about number of carries made. Is that not just being in the right place at the right time? The ball pops at you and you crash it up. That's what Stander did all day recently and he's being lauded for it. Is it really that impressive? Not a slight at him in particular, just that I find quoting stats in Rugby to be somewhat meaningless, unless you maybe tabulate it across a season. Another stat is meters made. Rob Kearney regularly tops that, but of course he does since he's a fullback. Useless stat.

It's not really useless. If you know that the full back is always going to have a high metres run stat (as we do) and wings something similar, you can then appreciate it if say a flanker or a centre get a relatively high figure.

The 'ruck marks' stats are useful as they measure that wonderful involvement in a game known as 'unseen work' .

But you do have to have some inkling of what the value of the individual stat is. Like the 'Turnovers conceded' stat which imo doesn't reflect on the player who turned the ball over, but the team in general for allowing him to get turned over.

flangemeistro

rsh118 wrote: »

Henderson will be a game changer for us. I think he'll compliment Toner beautifully a la Bakkies and Matfield at their best. Here's hoping he can get a good injury free run going!

Please don't ever compare Devon Toner to the legends that are Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha.
I really hope you were being sarcastic.

flangemeistro

stephen_n wrote: »

Can't find the link but found it during the world cup when a certain Ryan fan was saying he'd be the starting second row in the RWC. One of the English papers ran an article about how important he was to us. They had rated him as our top performing forward in last years 6 Nations, don't no exactly what metric they were using was, but toner had the highest points.

That was me I'll find the post for you if you want.
And I still stick with my opinion that I reckon Toner wouldn't be anywhere near the Irish setup if Ryan wasn't so unlucky with injury, and it's not because I'm a Ryan fan or a Munster fan I just reckon he's a far better all round player if given the chance and has a very similar work ethic to O'Connell .

flangemeistro

awec wrote: »

People have backed up their criticisms just as much as you have backed up any of your opinions Venjur.

You may not like other people's opinions but they are just as valid as yours, and you shouldn't be so dismissive and patronising toward them.

How would you feel if someone started labelling you as "the usual crowd who will over exaggerate the talent and importance of certain players in the squad"? Please stop doing that.

Yes, there are people on here who are overly critical, but there are also others who will refuse to listen to any sort of criticism of certain players in the Ireland team. When the two get together it leads to page after page of frustration, when posters start getting ultra-defensive of the players they like.

^^^^^^^^THIS 1000%^^^^^^^^^^

former total

flangemeistro wrote: »

Please don't ever compare Devon Toner to the legends that are Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha.
I really hope you were being sarcastic.

All he said was that Toner and Henderson would compliment each other, in the way that Botha and Matfield did.

flangemeistro wrote:

And I still stick with my opinion that I reckon Toner wouldn't be anywhere near the Irish setup if Ryan wasn't so unlucky with injury, and it's not because I'm a Ryan fan or a Munster fan I just reckon he's a far better all round player if given the chance and has a very similar work ethic to O'Connell .

That's fair enough, it's an opinion, but Ryan has been back fit for the guts of a year and is actually falling further down the pecking order. If he's a far better player, he's not showing it. He'll get a start in Twickenham so it's a big chance for him (I'm assuming McCarthy is gone).

CMOTDibbler

flangemeistro wrote: »

Please don't ever compare Devon Toner to the legends that are Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha.
I really hope you were being sarcastic.

If you're going to diss the greatest living lighthouse of our time, at least spell his name correctly. :pac:

Devin



Devon

CMOTDibbler

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

If you're going to diss the greatest living lighthouse of our time, at least spell his name correctly. :pac:

hmm, not so sure he's a patch on some of these...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taOL5HJdx1A

I heard that they wrote that for Devin though.

1eg0a3xv7b82of

he is named after the county though.

former total

Leandro Round Billboard wrote: »

he is named after the county though.

County Devin?

flangemeistro

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

If you're going to diss the greatest living lighthouse of our time, at least spell his name correctly. :pac:

Devin



Devon

Sorry I was thinking more along the lines of

former total

Deleted User wrote: »

I heard that they wrote that for Devin though.

It's a little-known fact that the Lighthouse Family's biggest hit, "Lifted", was actually a tribute to Big Dev's prowess on claiming restarts with Ross and Healy hoisting him, and how the lads always bring him down safely.

The Lighthouse Family wrote:

When all our luck runs out again
We're brought back down to solid ground
I wouldn't say I'm mad about the rain
But we'll get through it anyway
We'll get back to the start again

The "mad about the rain" line is believed to be a reference to how difficult it is to get a win at the Sportsground.

CMOTDibbler

Leandro Round Billboard wrote: »

he is named after the county though.

It's an Irish name: Daimhin

shuffol

Donnacha Ryan tends to get overstated on here, he's 32 years old and has only featured in one 6N as a starter, 2013. He's suffered with injuries the last few years but he still hasn't shown enough in his career to claim that he would have been or will be a certain starter for Ireland.

Paul Smeenus

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/35600151

Very good interview with Bryn Cunningham. Addressees succession planning, signing the big names and Ulster's extra NIQ next season.

former total

Paul Smeenus wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/35600151

Very good interview with Bryn Cunningham. Addressees succession planning, signing the big names and Ulster's extra NIQ next season.

Bryn says that Nucifora "understood the rationale" - but doesn't tell us what that rationale is...

Still, good to hear that IRFU aren't being overly rigid on the NIQ numbers.

jm08

shuffol wrote: »

Donnacha Ryan tends to get overstated on here, he's 32 years old and has only featured in one 6N as a starter, 2013. He's suffered with injuries the last few years but he still hasn't shown enough in his career to claim that he would have been or will be a certain starter for Ireland.

Factually incorrectly. D Ryan was starting lock for 2012 & 2013 6Ns.

He showed enough to be awarded a 3 Year Central Contract in December 2013. Dev Toner has only recently got a 2 year central contracts. Joe Schmidt was Ireland coach at the time.

Podge_irl

jm08 wrote: »

Factually incorrectly. D Ryan was starting lock for 2012 & 2013 6Ns.

He showed enough to be awarded a 3 Year Central Contract in December 2013. Dev Toner has only recently got a 2 year central contracts. Joe Schmidt was Ireland coach at the time.

Are you really resorting to respective contract lengths in order to try and make some kind of point?

Anyway, Toner is a good player. Possibly bordering on very good, but he will never be great. He is fulfilling a role in the team and I think he's doing it fairly well. His work rate is excellent, but he's just ineffective at causing any real damage at ruck time (throwing his go-go-gadget legs in there aside).

jm08

Podge_irl wrote: »

Are you really resorting to respective contract lengths in order to try and make some kind of point?

Anyway, Toner is a good player. Possibly bordering on very good, but he will never be great. He is fulfilling a role in the team and I think he's doing it fairly well. His work rate is excellent, but he's just ineffective at causing any real damage at ruck time (throwing his go-go-gadget legs in there aside).

I was responding to the comment 'that he didn't show enough in his career to claim that he would be a starter for ireland'.

Clearly he showed enough to get a central contract - it's highly unlikely he would have been given such a long contract if he was not going to be considered as a starter for Ireland. The length of contract suggests he was more highly rated than Toner as he got a 3 year central contract and Toner remained on his Leinster contract which has only recently been upgraded to a 2 year Central Contract.

JPNelsforearm

Toners genetic limitations, eg levers, lack of power, weight to height ratio, will always preclude him from being a top class second row. Hes a good player at what he does, lineouts and not making any/usually not making any, egregious errors. He's a great squad player for Ireland and a nailed on started for Leinster and has made the most of his talent when you take into account his physical limitations.
He'll be in the team until someone better comes along, and as of this tournament that player does not exist.

jm08

jm08 wrote: »

I was responding to the comment 'that he didn't show enough in his career to claim that he would be a starter for ireland'.

Clearly he showed enough to get a central contract - it's highly unlikely he would have been given such a long contract if he was not going to be considered as a starter for Ireland. The length of contract suggests he was more highly rated than Toner as he got a 3 year central contract and Toner remained on his Leinster contract which has only recently been upgraded to a 2 year Central Contract.

Denis Leamy got a central contract in 2012. http://dementedmole.com/2012/02/10/central-contracts-for-all-answers-for-none/

Leamy is a physical wreck who has missed extensive portions of three of his last four seasons and hasn’t been an Ireland regular since the 2008 Six Nations – that’s four years ago. Four years.

It started with shoulder surgery in summer 2008, which kept him off the pitch for four months. On his return, he unfortunately suffered a significant knee injury in late November 2008. Since then, he’s had a serious knee injury [sustained December 2009] which meant that he missed the rest of the 2009-10 season, and has recently undergone surgery for a long-standing hip-injury that will keep him out of the game until May 2012.

The injuries haven’t just taken him away from the pitch, but have actively curtailed his performance on it. Anybody that says Denis Leamy is comparable to the player he was at his peak [2005-2008, with the obvious blip of RWC07] is … well, deluded. He’s a diminished player with far less power and only a memory of the pace he once had. This was a guy who batted off Pierre Spies for fun! If it seems like a long time ago, it’s because it was.

So we have at least one example of this absolutely not being the case.

irishbucsfan

jm08 wrote: »

I was responding to the comment 'that he didn't show enough in his career to claim that he would be a starter for ireland'.

Clearly he showed enough to get a central contract - it's highly unlikely he would have been given such a long contract if he was not going to be considered as a starter for Ireland. The length of contract suggests he was more highly rated than Toner as he got a 3 year central contract and Toner remained on his Leinster contract which has only recently been upgraded to a 2 year Central Contract.

And at the time Sean O'Brien was on a Leinster contract. Obviously there's a lot more that goes into the decision-making on both sides than just the quality of the players.

Yeah_Right

Toner and Ryan (and McCarthy) are very good provincial players and good solid internationals. As someone else said, you wouldn't build an international pack around them. If all locks were fit and available, would any Irish locks apart from Henderson make the Lions?

Yeah_Right

Yeah_Right wrote: »

Toner and Ryan (and McCarthy) are very good provincial players and good solid internationals. As someone else said, you wouldn't build an international pack around them. If all locks were fit and available, would any Irish locks apart from Henderson make the Lions?

no.

I'd take Launchbury, Lawes, Henderson, Gray (the younger) and AWJ ahead of them.

Kruis, Ryan, Charteris, Toner and Gray (the elder) could duke it out for any additional spaces.

CMOTDibbler

JPNelsforearm wrote: »

Toners genetic limitations, eg levers, lack of power, weight to height ratio, will always preclude him from being a top class second row. Hes a good player at what he does, lineouts and not making any/usually not making any, egregious errors. He's a great squad player for Ireland and a nailed on started for Leinster and has made the most of his talent when you take into account his physical limitations.
He'll be in the team until someone better comes along, and as of this tournament that player does not exist.

I don't often agree with you, but in this case I believe you've hit the nail on the head.

awec

I've seen very little (none) of Dillane, what's the consensus on him? Likely to ever be anything more than a decent test lock?

RobbieRuns

awec wrote: »

I've seen very little (none) of Dillane, what's the consensus on him? Likely to ever be anything more than a decent test lock?

Kid is pure class, a real athlete.

What is actually wrong with being a decent test lock? I know a few who would settle for that accolade !

Magpie1951

awec wrote: »

I've seen very little (none) of Dillane, what's the consensus on him? Likely to ever be anything more than a decent test lock?

Raw but with lots of upside in terms of ability/talent and an explosive athlete although from a Connacht point of view I would say they hope he doesn't impress too much in the Ireland camp otherwise he will be in a blue coloured jersey when his contract is up!!!!!

jm08

Deleted User wrote: »

Denis Leamy got a central contract in 2012. http://dementedmole.com/2012/02/10/central-contracts-for-all-answers-for-none/

You have not read the comment I was responding to which was:

''….but he still hasn't shown enough in his career to claim that he would have been or will be a certain starter for Ireland.''


Nothing like the Denis Leamy situation who was a proven international with many years service to Ireland who was injured and out of contract. That was a disgraceful piece from Demented Mole. I await with baited breath for a similar article on Cian Healy's new Central Contract.

awec

awec wrote: »

I've seen very little (none) of Dillane, what's the consensus on him? Likely to ever be anything more than a decent test lock?

He appears to have the attributes and certainly seems to fit a lot of power into his existing frame.

I'd say it will be another season or so before the jury is in, but at the moment he looks to be international quality. Whether he moves into the Henderson bracket of potential remains to be seen.

We've produced a lot of good second rows that look the real deal until they hit international / HEC standard and then seem to taper off in effectiveness (actually this could be said about all positions but seems particularly to be a second row issue). POC and Henderson are the only world beaters we've produced in a while in the second row, and Henderson I think still needs to work on his set piece before he's the complete article.

Ryan and Moloney in Leinster are both looking like top drawer prospects, but whether they take that final step is completely up for debate, and Ryan is still in his teens so far too early to be saying much.

I thought Marshall looked a really good prospect, next season could be a big year for him with Connacht if he stays healthy.

awec

RobbieRuns wrote: »

Kid is pure class, a real athlete.

What is actually wrong with being a decent test lock? I know a few who would settle for that accolade !

Nothing wrong with it, I'm just curious what sort of prospect he is.

Is he used in the lineout at Connacht?

jm08

jm08 wrote: »

I was responding to the comment 'that he didn't show enough in his career to claim that he would be a starter for ireland'.

Clearly he showed enough to get a central contract - it's highly unlikely he would have been given such a long contract if he was not going to be considered as a starter for Ireland. The length of contract suggests he was more highly rated than Toner as he got a 3 year central contract and Toner remained on his Leinster contract which has only recently been upgraded to a 2 year Central Contract.

You're not wrong that they got 2 and 3 year contracts. It is your extrapolation of that fact (and many other facts and factoids) that are often ridiculous.

jm08

irishbucsfan wrote: »

And at the time Sean O'Brien was on a Leinster contract. Obviously there's a lot more that goes into the decision-making on both sides than just the quality of the players.

Didn't Sean O'Brien turn down a central contract around then? Something to do with his farming activities/image rights.

jm08

jm08 wrote: »

You have not read the comment I was responding to which was:

''….but he still hasn't shown enough in his career to claim that he would have been or will be a certain starter for Ireland.''


Nothing like the Denis Leamy situation who was a proven international with many years service to Ireland who was injured and out of contract. That was a disgraceful piece from Demented Mole. I await with baited breath for a similar article on Cian Healy's new Central Contract.

Cian Healy is 28 and has featured for Ireland every single time he has been fit enough to in the past 7 years.
Denis Leamy signed a central contract in 2012 at the age of 31, having not played for Ireland regularly (through injury and form and basically not being as good as alternative options {no shame here considering who they were!}) for 4 years, with no inclination that he would be returning to be a regular for the coming years of his contract.

Again, your quote was

jm08 wrote:

it's highly unlikely he would have been given such a long contract if he was not going to be considered as a starter for Ireland.

We have an example to hand of this absolutely not being the case.

Of course, you can ignore it if you wish, but that doesn't make it go away.

Bazzo

awec wrote: »

Nothing wrong with it, I'm just curious what sort of prospect he is.

Is he used in the lineout at Connacht?

I don't think he's used that much in the lineout, pretty sure Muldowney takes the majority of them.

jm08

Deleted User wrote: »

You're not wrong that they got 2 and 3 year contracts. It is your extrapolation of that fact (and many other facts and factoids) that are often ridiculous.

What is ridiculous about thinking that a player receiving a 3 year Central Contract is considered by the Ireland coaching staff to be an International starter?

What would you extrapolate from it?

sydthebeat

jm08 wrote: »

What is ridiculous about thinking that a player receiving a 3 year Central Contract is considered by the Ireland coaching staff to be an International starter?

What would you extrapolate from it?

do you deliberately refuse to read relevant posts?

former total

jm08 wrote: »

What is ridiculous about thinking that a player receiving a 3 year Central Contract is considered by the Ireland coaching staff to be an International starter?

What would you extrapolate from it?

Declan Fitzpatrick was given a central contract in January 2014.

Declan.




Fitzpatrick.



Can we agree that getting a central contract may not be a foolproof indication of anything?

andymx11

Just because.. Well just because- can somebody tell me the unlikely events that will have to happen for Ireland to retain the championship?

Obviously we need to win our remaining games but what big upsets need to happen?

jm08

jm08 wrote: »

What is ridiculous about thinking that a player receiving a 3 year Central Contract is considered by the Ireland coaching staff to be an International starter?

What would you extrapolate from it?

I think this is a ridiculous point to come up with to praise Ryan and belittle Toner. Again, you're not wrong with these facts, I just think it's a pedantic angle to take to prove a point.

I wouldn't extrapolate anything from it. There are too many variables involved. I'm sure I could prove all sorts if I took two players' contract lengths.

rsh118

Toner has done very well with what he's got and responded to coaching by improving on areas of weakness. Just a shame he can't fill out his frame because a lot of his weight seems to come from his extra height...

Henderson and Dillane has the potential to be very very interesting indeed.

jm08

Deleted User wrote: »

Cian Healy is 28 and has featured for Ireland every single time he has been fit enough to in the past 7 years.
Denis Leamy signed a central contract in 2012 at the age of 31, having not played for Ireland regularly (through injury and form and basically not being as good as alternative options {no shame here considering who they were!}) for 4 years, with no inclination that he would be returning to be a regular for the coming years of his contract.

So you think the IRFU should have thrown him to the wolves while injured after all the talk about looking after players welfare etc. to keep the top players in Ireland? Don't ever go into human resources if you think that is a good idea.

Apart from anything else, around 2012 there were probably double the quantity of central contracts available.

And of course, you don't know the details of the contract - i.e., there could have been just a contract to get him fit and a pay for play scenario after that. The only difference is that the IRFU were dealing with it rather than Munster.

I do recall that Luke Fitzgerald was offered a central contract at the time at a reduced level which he turned down and which the IRFU later withdrew.

We have an example to hand of this absolutely not being the case.Of course, you can ignore it if you wish, but that doesn't make it go away.

Who are you talking about?

rsh118

How on a knife edge is the IRFU financially? As far as I can tell RU worldwide seems to walk a pretty fine line of continuing to exist professionally. I know the NZRU turns tiny profits and the ARU seems constantly in crisis.

Is it a worry over nothing?

moycullen14

In answer to 'What would it take for Ireland to win 6N"

Wales beat England & France, lose to Italy
France beat England, lose to Scotland
Ireland win all three games

Ireland 7
Wales 7
France 6
Eng 4
Scotland/Italy 0/2

Ireland win on pts difference from Wales. Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

The great thing is the Scotland Italy result won't matter!

jm08

jm08 wrote: »

So you think the IRFU should have thrown him to the wolves while injured after all the talk about looking after players welfare etc. to keep the top players in Ireland? Don't ever go into human resources if you think that is a good idea.

Central Contracts are not Insurance.

jm08 wrote: »

Apart from anything else, around 2012 there were probably double the quantity of central contracts available.

How many central contracts were there then? How many now?
Link?

jm08 wrote: »

And of course, you don't know the details of the contract - i.e., there could have been just a contract to get him fit and a pay for play scenario after that. The only difference is that the IRFU were dealing with it rather than Munster.

Of course I don't. Not sure that has to do with anything. You are the person who suggested that we infer from the awarding of a central contract that the person is deemed to be an international starter. You are the one who must make that case in light of the offered examples of both Leamy and Fitzpatrick which suggest otherwise.

jm08 wrote: »

I do recall that Luke Fitzgerald was offered a central contract at the time at a reduced level which he turned down and which the IRFU later withdrew.

Cool. Tangential to the discussion, not really got anything to do with your statement about Ryan's contract suggesting him as a starter though?

jm08 wrote: »

Who are you talking about?

You ignoring the examples which directly contradict the logic that you're trying to apply to Ryan's contract offer.

former total

rsh118 wrote: »

Toner has done very well with what he's got and responded to coaching by improving on areas of weakness. Just a shame he can't fill out his frame because a lot of his weight seems to come from his extra height...

He already weighs 125 kg. Ask the props who have to lift him whether they would like him to pack on a few more kg :pac:

Bazzo

rsh118 wrote: »

How on a knife edge is the IRFU financially? As far as I can tell RU worldwide seems to walk a pretty fine line of continuing to exist professionally. I know the NZRU turns tiny profits and the ARU seems constantly in crisis.

Is it a worry over nothing?

I think they're currently in a pretty good place. Here's an article from about 6 months ago: http://www.irishrugby.ie/news/35253.php#.VsW3KNBYr-U

Irish Rugby wrote:

The Irish Rugby Football Union today presented its 2014/15 Annual Report and Accounts, reporting a surplus in excess of 8.7 million euro due to continuing strong ticket sales, new broadcast agreements and the prize-monies generated by the national team thanks to their success in the RBS 6 Nations Championship.