Novelty/Special (Awards) Bet: Mercury Prize 2015

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The x12 '2015 Album of the Year' Shortlist (announced Friday 16 October) are:



Aphex Twin 'Syro'
Benjamin Clementine 'At Least For Now'
C Duncan 'Architect'
Eska 'Eska'
Florence + The Machine 'How Big, How Blue, How Beautiful'
Gaz Coombes 'Matador'
Ghostpoet 'Shedding Skin'
Jamie xx 'In Colour'
Róisín Murphy 'Hairless Toys'
Slaves 'Are You Satisfied?'
SOAK 'Before We Forgot How To Dream'
Wolf Alice 'My Love Is Cool’

more details: http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-34528483


Winner to be announced: Friday 20 November 2015 on BBC Four and BBC Radio 6 Music etc.

The Judging Panel are:

Simon Frith (Chairman) – Author and Music Writer; Professor of Music, Edinburgh University
Anna Calvi – Musician and songwriter
Corinne Bailey Rae – Musician and songwriter
Elisa Bray – Music Editor, The Independent
Greg Cochrane – Editor, NME.com
John Kennedy – Presenter, ‘X-Posure’, Xfm
Kat Morris – Festival Director, The Great Escape
Kate Mossman – Music Writer and Broadcaster; Arts Editor, New Statesman
MistaJam – DJ and broadcaster
Mike Flynn – Music Writer; Deputy Editor Jazzwise
Nick Luscombe – DJ and broadcaster; founder ‘Musicity’
Nick Mulvey – Musician and songwriter

Market Prices:
http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/mercury-prize/winning-act

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This is a tricky prediction. the judges usually try to outdo each other, aiming for slightly more obscure and left-field selections.
The Best approach is to eliminate who won't do well and also keep an eye on the amount of exposure on the beeb as this is correlated.

Aphex Twin 'Syro'
Benjamin Clementine 'At Least For Now'
C Duncan 'Architect'
Eska 'Eska'
Florence + The Machine 'How Big, How Blue, How Beautiful'
Gaz Coombes 'Matador'
Ghostpoet 'Shedding Skin'
Jamie xx 'In Colour'
Róisín Murphy 'Hairless Toys'
Slaves 'Are You Satisfied?'
SOAK 'Before We Forgot How To Dream'
Wolf Alice 'My Love Is Cool’

The ones I really don't like are market in red, their voices too annoying. Of Interest are the ones in Green.

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Award due out tomorrow! (Fri 20th 9pm BBC4)

Wolf Alice 'My Love Is Cool’ now only x9 but still looks an excellent good choice.
But slight chance the judges with go for a random choice with someone like Gaz or Slaves.

Might make an updated low stake high return November Noveltyfest from it:
1. Merc: WA x9
2. XFactor: Che (can sing an al tune without much effort) x4.5
3. Dancing show: GMF (she's hot) x13 price last week, now x4.5
4. CelebJungle: The ex-pop singer chap (someone dropped 50k on this selection last week) x7
5. Apprentice: Vana should win, but Joe now looks like winner of the pre-recorded series due to steadfast pricing indications, probably via the production teams. x2
€10 = €25k, but with market limits may have to use triples


Wildcard December add-ons:
SPOTY15: Tony McCoy (hosted in Belfast) x40
Xmas or NYD snow in Aberdeen/Glasgow, of course it's yon el'Nimo x5.

markc91

Esther Beautiful Twig wrote: »

Award due out tomorrow! (Fri 20th 9pm BBC4)

Wolf Alice 'My Love Is Cool’ now only x9 but still looks an excellent good choice.
But slight chance the judges with go for a random choice with someone like Gaz or Slaves.

Might make an updated low stake high return November Noveltyfest from it:
1. Merc: WA x9
2. XFactor: Che (can sing an al tune without much effort) x4.5
3. Dancing show: GMF (she's hot) x13 price last week, now x4.5
4. CelebJungle: The ex-pop singer chap (someone dropped 50k on this selection last week) x7
5. Apprentice: Vana should win, but Joe now looks like winner of the pre-recorded series due to steadfast pricing indications, probably via the production teams. x2
€10 = €25k, but with market limits may have to use triples


Wildcard December add-ons:
SPOTY15: Tony McCoy (hosted in Belfast) x40
Xmas or NYD snow in Aberdeen/Glasgow, of course it's yon el'Nimo x5.

What bookie did you get that on with?

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markc91 wrote: »

What bookie did you get that on with?

Hard to get all the above selections with just one single bookie, best approach is to pick off an selection array of lucky dip triples and four-folds from the pool.

Prices on upcoming special events generally drop dramatically close to event time, e.g. GMF^ was x13 just week ago, is now more or less joint favorite.
http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/

Best prices via Oddschecker but with high variance. The best books for 'accumulated Novelties' are Stanley, WillHill & Lads, however the latter have very small limits on some novelties with max returns of only 250.

The other two have more open max returns esp if mixed up with mainstream sport events. PPower/Boyles etc may offer a good range of tv/specials markets but usually only ever offer singles. Betway offer good random specialist/topical event markets.

interesting note:
William Hill has announced that it has taken its biggest ever TV single wager on English songwriter/actor Tony Hadley winning....

- wonder if this was per-recorded or recorded with time-lagging for the post-production crew to mixdown/edit.

markc91

Stanley closed my account, limited on lads and wills not to worry

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Betway or some of the newer kids on the euroblock can be good for novelties. Best with approach with specials is always low stake & high yield accumulations. Shops may not take combinations for specials.

A word of caution needed with the Mercury Prize (WA), tomorrow as Benjamin Clementine has also shortening on the exchanges for a while and has a bit of story behind him (was a homeless French busker before fame took hold), so may get a few of the judges bonus points.

If the SLaves win (couple of unmusical shouty lads) they should just scrap the award altogether. Can only think it may of been a typo during the shortlisting print out, whereby it was actually meant to read (the fabulous) STaves instead. Soak & Florence far too middle of the road, not great choices for the award.

They may also go the way of recognising good lifetime multi-talented individuals e.g. R.Murphy or Aphex.

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Half-hour to go towards BBC4, and Benjamin Clementine has moved into pole position at x2.75. No value and it could still go in any direction.

Last year's winners Young Fathers, had only sold 2,368 albums when they lifted the trophy, novelty in every sense of the word.
Still hoping for Wolf Alice whose album My Love Is Cool was called "the debut of the decade" by NME magazine v.g.value now at x14.5 on 'fair.

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The winner... Benjamin Clementine, jolly decent fellow.