Prime Time special on a United Ireland

Jawgap

For anyone who might be interested......

Godge

Oh why, did you post that up here? At least we will get to see many of the regular contributors on here in the audience. Will be looking for Tom from Waterford or Jack the successful Northern businessman or the happy looking guy involved in community activity in south Fermanagh.:D:D:D:D

Berserker

I saw an advert for this earlier. Miriam and Stephen Nolan are presenting it. Should be interesting. Waiting to see how those who are pro try to spin that it is financially viable. If Pearse 'Numbers' Doherty is there, god only knows what economic wonders we will witness.

Godge wrote: »

Oh why, did you post that up here? At least we will get to see many of the regular contributors on here in the audience.

Expected one of them to start this thread. They are probably off trying to source tickets as we speak.

Connacht15

I bet a surprising amount of Taigs up North will support The Union,!

Connacht15

Berserker wrote: »

I saw an advert for this earlier. Miriam and Stephen Nolan are presenting it. Should be interesting. Waiting to see how those who are pro try to spin that it is financially viable. If Pearse 'Numbers' Doherty is there, god only knows what economic wonders we will witness.



Expected one of them to start this thread. They are probably off trying to source tickets as we speak.

Will Miriam be transferred to The Beeb as a result?

feargale

I thought that following the GFA it was deemed acceptable to hold one view or the other.

Second Toughest in_the Freshers

...audience to reflect Irish society.

fat chance of that. it wouldn't be a thing the vast majority down here really think about.

"man in the second row, with the blue shirt, whats your opinion?" I, I don't really know... I've no opinion on it, one way or the other, to be honest Miriam...

timthumbni

Berserker wrote: »

I saw an advert for this earlier. Miriam and Stephen Nolan are presenting it. Should be interesting. Waiting to see how those who are pro try to spin that it is financially viable. If Pearse 'Numbers' Doherty is there, god only knows what economic wonders we will witness.



Expected one of them to start this thread. They are probably off trying to source tickets as we speak.

I've no idea who Miriam is but if Steakie Nolan is involved then you can be pretty sure it will be quite low brow entertainment.

Berserker

Connacht15 wrote: »

Will Miriam be transferred to The Beeb as a result?

Not sure. Checked the tv listings and it is being televised up there by the looks of things.

Connacht15

I would be surprised if a United Ireland was supported by more than 30% up there and more and more are into McIlroyism - I.E. defining themselves as 'Northern Irish'!

timthumbni

Doherty from SF does not like to break it down into the religious aspect apparently. He leaves that to Gerry Kelly.

Happyman42

timthumbni wrote: »

Doherty from SF does not like to break it down into the religious aspect apparently. He leaves that to Gerry Kelly.

He left it to the RTE/BBC and the pollsters (which is what Gerry Kelly quoted...a poll) to do it>

If I quote this survey to promote my stance am I being sectarian?

Berserker

Without even taking time to put the finances under a microscope, which will display the financial difficulties that a UI would bring for all, the majority of people are against this. I think it's time to put this old nonsense to bed. Had to laugh at the FF man claiming that they are pro UI when they were slating people who crossed the border to shop when they were in power.

Berserker

Lol, 1 of 10 people in NI would go for it, if it means more tax. Pearse is some man for talking utter nonsense. Not a number in sight from him.

Happyman42

This is nonsense, nobody is getting a chance with loudmouth in BBC studios

timthumbni

Sinn Fein have just got an awful beat down there on the united Ireland pipe dream. Probably a big mistake to put Doherty on.

The DUP will get their arse handed to them on the gay marriage issue.

JustTheOne

timthumbni wrote: »

Sinn Fein have just got an awful beat down there on the united Ireland pipe dream. Probably a big mistake to put Doherty on.

The DUP will get their arse handed to them on the gay marriage issue.

Hes finance minister for Sinn Fein and he cant even give numbers.

Happyman42

JustTheOne wrote: »

Hes finance minister for Sinn Fein and he cant even give numbers.

Nobody knows the numbers was his point.

Iwasfrozen

Happyman42 wrote: »

Nobody knows the numbers was his point.

11% Happyman 11%....

Looks like this idea is dead for the next 50 years at minimum.

Second Toughest in_the Freshers

Second Toughest in_the Freshers wrote: »

"man in the second row, with the blue shirt, whats your opinion?" I, I don't really know... I've no opinion on it, one way or the other, to be honest Miriam...

I just don't know, Miriam, never really thought about it, to be honest...

Happyman42

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

11% Happyman 11%....

I not suprised by the short time findings and I agree with Pearse on the Scottish referendum, when you get the debate happening properly those figures will change dramatically.

Actually, have you noticed something about the rest of the findings...very little difference in thinking on social issues. As I have always said on here, that is my experience, Unionism on the ground is a very pragmatic ideology. That is very heartening, the Unionist politicians are out of touch, there is no doubt about that.

As fear diminishes (and the don't give in mentality disappears) and as the British show their punitive hand (which has begun) I expect the figures to shift much more.

Iwasfrozen

Happyman42 wrote: »

I not suprised by the short time findings and I agree with Pearse on the Scottish referendum, when you get the debate happening properly those figures will change dramatically.

Actually, have you noticed something about the rest of the findings...very little difference in thinking on social issues. As I have always said on here, that is my experience, Unionism on the ground is a very pragmatic ideology. That is very heartening, the Unionist politicians are out of touch, there is no doubt about that.

As fear diminishes (and the don't give in mentality disappears) and as the British show their punitive hand (which has begun) I expect the figures to shift much more.

Why would you expect a change? Unless you can show unification won't require an increase in taxes you have no reason to expect a change.

Also given those numbers a border poll will never be called so you won't have a chance to hope for a "Scottish move".

Berserker

Happyman42 wrote: »

Nobody knows the numbers was his point.

But it's up to those who are for it to come up with those numbers. Those for it, need to sell the idea to those against it. I am no fan of SF but they were woefully under-prepared for that tonight. This is their ultimate dream, apparently. Have they given up on it behind the facade?

Btw, respect to you for coming on here to post tonight after a beating like that. The rest of the crew seem to have disappeared.

Happyman42

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Why would you expect a change? Unless you can show unification won't require an increase in taxes you have no reason to expect a change.

Also given those numbers a border poll will never be called so you won't have a chance to hope for a "Scottish move".

Because of the numbers who want a UI in their lifetime and the don't knows. You are just choosing to ignore that aspiration. To me it means, present the right vircumstances and the figures will change. Loads of potential there.
You may block the poll, but you won't block the debate and you won't block closer ties.

*Looking at the poll would you be confident that Unionist politicians are speaking for the people...they plainly aren't on those figures. A UI is a huge barrier for Unionist people but I have always believed that it will diminish, the 'don't know' figures in the Unionist side was interesting.

Dyr

I don't watch prime time because O'Callaghan is embarassing . What were these polling figures and were they adjusted for don't know's?



I would have said 70-80% in the republic in favour and 50-60% agin in norn iron, that seems to be about the norm over the years. Probably depends on the sample size and how honest RTE were feeling

The figure to watch is amount of papist bead rattlers in the north who are agin, that's what scuppers the deal. Jaysus you'd think they'd go for it just to see the fleggers attain heights of hysteria thought achievable without hallucinogens.

timthumbni

JustTheOne wrote: »

Hes finance minister for Sinn Fein and he cant even give numbers.

I really think Sinn Fein throw the United Ireland line out the odd time just to keep their grassroots supporters happy. I don't think they are really that serious.
Tonight was quite laughable actually.

SF are the ones who apparently most want a United Ireland but they don't appear to have any clue, nor even put a bit of effort into research apparently re the benefits,costs or anything else about the issue.

Maybe Pearse's fact finding Greek vacations have taken it out of him....

Iwasfrozen

Happyman42 wrote: »

Because of the numbers who want a UI in their lifetime and the don't knows. You are just choosing to ignore that aspiration. To me it means, present the right vircumstances and the figures will change. Loads of potential there.
You may block the poll, but you won't block the debate and you won't block closer ties.

*Looking at the poll would you be confident that Unionist politicians are speaking for the people...they plainly aren't on those figures. A UI is a huge barrier for Unionist people but I have always believed that it will diminish, the 'don't know' figures in the Unionist side was interesting.

You're grasping, the don't know figure made no difference to the result. There isn't a debate to be had Happy, most people are clearly happy with partition. Perhaps things will change in the future but you're looking at no border poll for "at least" 50 years.

Also note this poll was taken at a time of political strife in NI so would have hurt the pro union figures.

Iwasfrozen

Happyman42 wrote: »

Because of the numbers who want a UI in their lifetime and the don't knows. You are just choosing to ignore that aspiration. To me it means, present the right vircumstances and the figures will change. Loads of potential there.
You may block the poll, but you won't block the debate and you won't block closer ties.

*Looking at the poll would you be confident that Unionist politicians are speaking for the people...they plainly aren't on those figures. A UI is a huge barrier for Unionist people but I have always believed that it will diminish, the 'don't know' figures in the Unionist side was interesting.

You're grasping, the don't know figure made no difference to the result. There isn't a debate to be had Happy, most people are clearly happy with partition. Perhaps things will change in the future but you're looking at no border poll for "at least" 50 years.

Also note this poll was taken at a time of political strife in NI so would have hurt the pro union figures.

Happyman42

Berserker wrote: »

But it's up to those who are for it to come up with those numbers. Those for it, need to sell the idea to those against it. I am no fan of SF but they were woefully under-prepared for that tonight. This is their ultimate dream, apparently. Have they given up on it behind the facade?

Btw, respect to you for coming on here to post tonight after a beating like that. The rest of the crew seem to have disappeared.

You cannot cost a UI without the coming together of all the interests and both governments being transparent (they simply aren't)
As to being unprepared, not defending them but what chance had any speaker got there tonight...it was laughable...Nolan's shouty manner when Doherty was trying to explain his problem with the figures available was ridiculous. Rabitte resorted to soundbytes, Deenahin was somewhere else, Susan Mckay wanted to talk about women's issues and Arelene Foster wanted to have a political swipe. Ridiculous debate tbh

timthumbni

Second Toughest in_the Freshers wrote: »

I just don't know, Miriam, never really thought about it, to be honest...

That sounds bit like Pearse's reply when asked of the costs of a "United Ireland"

Happyman42

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

You're grasping, the don't know figure made no difference to the result. There isn't a debate to be had Happy, most people are clearly happy with partition. Perhaps things will change in the future but you're looking at no border poll for "at least" 50 years.

Also note this poll was taken at a time of political strife in NI so would have hurt the pro union figures.

Happy in the short term and I am on record as saying the same. So no big revelation to me.
The revelation to me is how close we are to ordinary Unionists on social issues and how far apart southerners and the politicians of the DUP are. That is a real revelation there.

Iwasfrozen

Happyman42 wrote: »

Happy in the short term and I am on record as saying the same. So no big revelation to me.
The revelation to me is how close we are to ordinary Unionists on social issues and how far apart southerners and the politicians of the DUP are. That is a real revelation there.

Short and medium term. Like I said you're looking at 50 years at the very minimum before a UI becomes feasible.

I'm not surprised by the social issues. The same results would have been found anywhere in West Europe.

Happyman42

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Short and medium term. Like I said you're looking at 50 years at the very minimum before a UI becomes feasible.

I'm not surprised by the social issues. The same results would have been found anywhere in West Europe.

Yeh, and as NI normalises you will see an intolerance of the hardline bigotry of the DUP and a fall in their support.
So much is motivated by fear in NI, always was, but won't always be. The moderates in Unionism will be very buoyed by that poll.

And the debate won't take 50 years, that is just wishful thinking and ignoring the figures of the whole poll.

Iwasfrozen

Happyman42 wrote: »

Yeh, and as NI normalises you will see an intolerance of the hardline bigotry of the DUP and a fall in their support.
So much is motivated by fear in NI, always was, but won't always be. The moderates in Unionism will be very buoyed by that poll.

And the debate won't take 50 years, that is just wishful thinking and ignoring the figures of the whole poll.

The DUP may need to rethink their stance on social issues if they want to remain the largest unionist party but I don't see what that has to do with the national question. Pro gay rights unionists aren't going to start voting for SF.

What debate? Who's having a debate? SF have been debating for years and no one has listened to them, meanwhile the numbers slowly shift to the Unionist side. A border poll won't be commissioned on the back of those figures, that's a pipe dream.

Richard Hillman

I think they should have also asked how would you vote in referendum if it were tomorrow. I would be more interested in those figures rather than the wishy washy lifetime question.

Would I like a United Ireland in the 40-50 years I am expected to live? Sounds like a nice idea.

Would I vote for one in the next 5-10 years? Not a chance.

Happyman42

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

The DUP may need to rethink their stance on social issues if they want to remain the largest unionist party but I don't see what that has to do with the national question. Pro gay rights unionists aren't going to start voting for SF.

What debate? Who's having a debate? SF have been debating for years and no one has listened to them, meanwhile the numbers slowly shift to the Unionist side. A border poll won't be commissioned on the back of those figures, that's a pipe dream.

So what do you think will happen, all those who want a UI will now just lie down?

There will be plenty of debate, what you are looking at here is a lighthearted (that is a nice description of that shambles tonight) start.
And the world and circumstances will change. NI is an unstable entity economically right now as is the republic and as said, the poll was taken when the NI exec was failing in the public eye.
As I said earlier, I wasn't expecting anything different, results wise.

LordSutch

The programme was too short to properly discuss the topics, they also needed more time for audience feedback. Maybe as succession of programmes would have been better?

One thing that was missing from the surveys was the East - West dimension to attitudes and opinions.

For example, when a question was asked about abortion, 64℅ of people in Northern Ireland said this, while 56% of people in the ROI said that... But what about the people in Wales? What would they have said? What would the people in Scotland have said? Would the good people of the NE of England have the same views as NI or the ROI? etc etc etc.

In other words, because NI is part of the UK, what would other regions of the UK have to say on topics like gay marriage, abortion, or higher taxes? If they're going to talk about a united Ireland, then surely they might 'tap into' the thoughts and feelings of other regions who would be affected should NI be extracted from the UK.

Iwasfrozen

Happyman42 wrote: »

So what do you think will happen, all those who want a UI will now just lie down?

There will be plenty of debate, what you are looking at here is a lighthearted (that is a nice description of that shambles tonight) start.
And the world and circumstances will change. NI is an unstable entity economically right now as is the republic and as said, the poll was taken when the NI exec was failing in the public eye.
As I said earlier, I wasn't expecting anything different, results wise.

Nope. They won't lie down, they'll continue to join SF / SDLP continue to live their lives as normal functioning human beings while advocating a United Ireland but their advocation will continue to fall on deaf ears, as is happening now.

Who will be debating? Nationalists? They've already been debating but no one has been listening to them, meanwhile the tide has been slowly shifting towards the unionist side. Unionism is as strong as it has ever been, moreso now it has democratic legitimacy.

Happyman42

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Nope. They won't lie down, they'll continue to join SF / SDLP continue to live their lives as normal functioning human beings while advocating a United Ireland but their advocation will continue to fall on deaf ears, as is happening now.

Who will be debating? Nationalists? They've already been debating but no one has been listening to them, meanwhile the tide has been slowly shifting towards the unionist side. Unionism is as strong as it has ever been, moreso now it has democratic legitimacy.

There was a major poll, a major link up between two tv stations and an engagement with the idea. At a time when both economies are under pressure for varying reasons. That isn't 'deaf ears' to me. And I'll say it again, you are turning deaf ears to the entire survey and taking solace in the short term picture.
You are also ignoring that there are potential seismic events that could radically alter the picture like it did in Scotland.

P.s. I also know very few people who will or would answer 'yes' to the question 'would you like to pay more tax'. The question is much more complicated and was a leading question Imo.

Jawgap

Happyman42 wrote: »

He left it to the RTE/BBC and the pollsters (which is what Gerry Kelly quoted...a poll) to do it>

If I quote this survey to promote my stance am I being sectarian?

Gerry didn't quote a poll in his sectarian leaflet, he quoted the census.

A poll is a sample, a census is a survey.

chughes

I watched this programme last night and I'm still none the wiser as to what is going to happen to Northern Ireland into the future. I'd guess that if there was a referendum in the short term among the citizens of the six counties, you would get a similar result to the Scottish referendum. As one man said on the programme, better the devil you know.


The issue of finance and how the Republic could pay for reunification played a big part in the debate. There is no doubt that the South could not match the monies being paid into the Northern economy by the British government. It would have been nice to hear from a British government representative if this level of funding would and will be sustained into the future.


For my part, yes I would like to see a United Ireland at some stage in the future. However, as a democrat, I would only like this to happen if it is the wish of the people of Northern Ireland to do so. I cringe when I hear some people say that Unionists should go back to Scotland/England if they don't want to live under a Dublin government. They have lived there for centuries so have as much right to live there as anyone else. I'm more of a "Unionists In" than a "Brits Out" person but, as someone in my mid fifties, I don't expect to see any change in the status quo in my lifetime.

Happyman42

Jawgap wrote: »

Gerry didn't quote a poll in his sectarian leaflet, he quoted the census.

A poll is a sample, a census is a survey.

A simple question is all I asked. If I or somebody else used the results of this polls, broken down along religious lines (you have to ask, why that was) would you consider that to be sectarian? Or is it just quoting the findings of a census or poll?

EastTyrone

I think many people in the north are happy with the bread and butter issues, eg they have a safe job why would they risk it, they are afraid of joining the republic with their economy etc etc. However I think people need to be more open minded on the whole thing and not just say why would they join the south when their getting it so handy.

In the past year a town in Antrim, Ballymena has lost over 1000 jobs after the closure of 2 factories. The owners stated too high of costs in energy. Surely if the north was in the south the companies would benefit from cheaper taxes such as the corporation tax which would help keep companies in the north whilst at the same time helping to attract inward investment? I don't think this argument is being pushed far enough by the nationalists parties.

Border towns like Strabane will also benefit from a united Ireland all working under the one economy and currency. It is too common of a sight to see filling stations north of the border empty whilst stations south of the border are jammed full of northern reg cars who are availing of the cheaper fuel through the exchange rate and through the cheaper taxes on fuel in the South.

The uniting of this island under a single currency/ economy would also help to limit criminals who are availing of the border. To often I have read of this "bandit country" of S. Armagh/Louth/Monaghan border areas. These criminals are using the change in jurisdiction and the cheaper rates etc on either side of the border to fund a criminal empire which would not exist in the same form if the border was away.

Also a thing I have seen that seems to be surprising people is the closeness of the views on social issues such as same sex marriage etc. this does not surprise me in the slightest, and I think this is the part that needs to be pushed very positively by a pro-UI front - that infact everyone one on this island are more similar than a lot of people think, we are in essence the same people - border or not.

Happyman42

EastTyrone wrote: »

Also a thing I have seen that seems to be surprising people is the closeness of the views on social issues such as same sex marriage etc. this does not surprise me in the slightest, and I think this is the part that needs to be pushed very positively by a pro-UI front - that infact everyone one on this island are more similar than a lot of people think, we are in essence the same people - border or not.

I agree totally here. There will be a generation of Unionist voters and moderates wondering how they are the only part of the UK not to modernise/normalise.
Politicians have succeeded so far, in a post conflict society, in stalling progress and representing narrow political and religious issues. It's clear there is already a gulf between them and those they purport to represent.
That was by far the most interesting aspect of this poll and it will be interesting to see the fallout and who will make something of it, within Unionism.

Jawgap

Happyman42 wrote: »

A simple question is all I asked. If I or somebody else used the results of this polls, broken down along religious lines (you have to ask, why that was) would you consider that to be sectarian? Or is it just quoting the findings of a census or poll?

It's not just quoting the findings of the census (it wasn't a poll) - it's the fact it reveals something about how Sinn Fein think.........

Catholics = Republican

The mask slipped, and the true nature of what their political calculus is based on was briefly glimpsed.

Happyman42

Jawgap wrote: »

It's not just quoting the findings of the census (it wasn't a poll) - it's the fact it reveals something about how Sinn Fein think.........

Catholics = Republican

The mask slipped, and the true nature of what their political calculus is based on was briefly glimpsed.

The BBC, RTE and the census people (he was quoting a census finding, he didn't ask the question in other words) did the same thing on the issue of a UI and extrapolated from there, that is all he did too.

Jawgap

Happyman42 wrote: »

The BBC, RTE and the census people (he was quoting a census finding, he didn't ask the question in other words) did the same thing on the issue of a UI and extrapolated from there, that is all he did too.

OK, you can dance around it all you like, but there's no comparing a census ("an official enumeration of the population, with details as to age, sex, occupation, etc.") with a poll ("a sampling or collection of opinions on a subject, taken from either a selected or a random group of persons, as for the purpose of analysis).

Godge

Happyman42 wrote: »

A simple question is all I asked. If I or somebody else used the results of this polls, broken down along religious lines (you have to ask, why that was) would you consider that to be sectarian? Or is it just quoting the findings of a census or poll?

The leaflet was sectarian, we have been through this many times already, it was withdrawn and censored by the party as they acknowledged the sectarian nature of it (still leaving us with the question as to how they approved it in the first place). Why do you bring up a pathetic pedantic semantic defence each time? Just accept that the leaflet was wrong and was withdrawn because it was sectarian.

Happyman42

Jawgap wrote: »

OK, you can dance around it all you like, but there's no comparing a census ("an official enumeration of the population, with details as to age, sex, occupation, etc.") with a poll ("a sampling or collection of opinions on a subject, taken from either a selected or a random group of persons, as for the purpose of analysis).

I am not sure what you are saying here.
I asked a question and you haven't answered, 'if I use the results of either the census or this poll, to promote my position...am I being 'sectarian' or merely 'quoting' a census/poll carried out by somebody else, 'somebody else' who are clearly using religion to indicate political affiliations?

EastTyrone

Happyman42 wrote: »

I agree totally here. There will be a generation of Unionist voters and moderates wondering how they are the only part of the UK not to modernise/normalise.
Politicians have succeeded so far, in a post conflict society, in stalling progress and representing narrow political and religious issues. It's clear there is already a gulf between them and those they purport to represent.
That was by far the most interesting aspect of this poll and it will be interesting to see the fallout and who will make something of it, within Unionism.

Exactly, I am working in the north, from a nationalist background so of course I am taking a biased perception on this. However I have been brought up with a very open mind and I work with and am friendly with a large proportion of Unionists so I can talk with a level of experience from them.

I have know unionists who don't pass a thought at the border, travel to the south regular, deal in livestock with the south etc. I know 2 unionist families close to me - one is actually a UUP councilor on the local council who sends his milk to the south. He has no bother dealing with the republic and working in Euros for his own financial benefit. I also know an incredible amount of unionists who travel to the south on holiday etc and would even refer to going to "a different part of the country" when talking about going down south, even though the are infact "unionist".

I believe that the border is a fear idea. Many people are afraid of the south, as I said, "who would want to join them with their money problems". People weren't saying that 15 years ago when the Celtic Tiger was roaring and every other man from Tyrone was working in Dublin. Protestants were afraid that if they were to be ruled from Dublin they would be under the power of the Catholic Church but I believe that most liberal minded protestants have cast of from this idea and are starting to actively view the south as a friendly and welcoming place unlike generations before.

As I said before, most of the people I work with are middle class protestants and they have no problem working in the south or dealing with people in the south. I think it will just be a matter of time before they can start actively seeing the benefits of a United Ireland in working in their favour.

However I would wonder how this pole would change if the UK was to leave the EU??

personally I think it would only strengthen the cause for a UI??

Godge

Happyman42 wrote: »

Yeh, and as NI normalises you will see an intolerance of the hardline bigotry of the DUP and a fall in their support.
So much is motivated by fear in NI, always was, but won't always be. The moderates in Unionism will be very buoyed by that poll.

And the debate won't take 50 years, that is just wishful thinking and ignoring the figures of the whole poll.

A fall in support for DUP does not equate to a rise in support for a united Ireland.

That is the fallacy believed by SF supporters for years and years.

The moderates in Unionism will be very buoyed by that poll as it puts the prospect of a united Ireland on the backburner for 50 years.