November 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Will hold off on deciding the snow question until I get the end of day summary.

Meanwhile, IMT probably peaked on 11th, has fallen to 10.8 after 12th and estimated 10.6 after today.

Model runs keep changing the depth of cold air after 21st, latest not looking as cold but certain that the IMT will drift below 10 at some point around 22nd.

John mac

Jpmarn wrote: »

Knock airport reported snow this morning at 9am. The temperature was +2c and rainfall equivalent of 1.5mm. I don't live there so I cannot verify this snow incident.

there was snow this morning

Schadenfreudia

John mac wrote: »

there was snow this morning

It has to fall on one of the ME weather stations!

Does it have to stick??

John mac

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

It has to fall on one of the ME weather stations!

Does it have to stick??

yea i know.. but there is proof it snowed last night

no dosn't have to stick, just be reported .

Schadenfreudia

John mac wrote: »

yea i know.. but there is proof it snowed last night

no dosn't have to stick, just be reported .

That must be a fine line!

Distinguishing a single snowflake in a sleety shower

If the observer blinks at the wrong time....

M.T. Cranium

So, the IMT fell to 10.4 after a colder day on Friday. It now looks like hovering in the low 10's for about four days then if current models are correct, it will quickly slide down through the 9's and perhaps stabilize around 8.8 near the end of the month. That could change, the models have a habit of over-doing cold this far in advance.

On the issue of Knock snowfall yes or no, I am inclined to say yes but will leave it open for further validation, in part because it looks like a fairly good chance of snow around 21st-22nd which is also the earliest of our predictions so that scoring won't be changed if it definitely snows then anyway.

Hope you went high on PRC.

Schadenfreudia

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

it will quickly slide down through the 9's and perhaps stabilize around 8.8 near the end of the month.

That would be an excellent turn of events

Jpmarn

Knock Airport is part time manual. Weather conditions are reported when there is an observer in. Weather condition is not mentioned during automatic hours. There was no problems reported on the roads regard to snow.

M.T. Cranium

IMT after 14 days was 10.3, the actual decrease was only 0.02 and it will probably be up slightly on tomorrow's report.

Meanwhile, after two weeks, PRC now at 161% after a very wet week (253% of normal).

And SUN has decreased to 94% after a week at only 68% of normal.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT edged up again after 15th and stands at 10.5 C now, but the latest GFS guidance suggests a mean of about 6 C in second half for a finish around 8.3 C. Will continue this daily countdown anyway.

M.T. Cranium

IMT 10.3 C after 16 days.

M.T. Cranium

IMT now 10.2 C after 17 days. Will hold on for two more days then down she goes ... oh well 200motels, we had our fun.

pauldry

And fun youl still have mt. While temps are set to plummet at the weekend to 4 to 8c and -1 or 2c at night next week they will be only slightly below normal and as the month goes on the mean drops slower

For example theres 17 days at 10.2c gone meaning even if a freezing imt of 6c was recorded for the last 13 days the final imt would still be 8.1c so id say 9c is guaranteed at least as an odd double digit day n 7c night next week.

Schadenfreudia

pauldry wrote: »

And fun youl still have mt. While temps are set to plummet at the weekend to 4 to 8c and -1 or 2c at night next week they will be only slightly below normal and as the month goes on the mean drops slower

For example theres 17 days at 10.2c gone meaning even if a freezing imt of 6c was recorded for the last 13 days the final imt would still be 8.1c so id say 9c is guaranteed at least as an odd double digit day n 7c night next week.

I done a vast amount of analysis, model ogling and even streetlamp watching and I'm pretty sure the final figure will be 8.8C.

M.T. Cranium

You won't be far off at 8.8, unless the models have done one of their over-cold numbers and it gets very toasty again next week, then maybe 9.4 or so.

Over in Britain, CET now ahead of any other month to date except equal to 1938, but 1994 had a very mild second half and ended at 10.1 there. That record is probably just about safe now despite fact that CET stood at 11.6 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

IMT at 10.2 C after 18 days.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT now enters a period of free fall, 10.0 C after 19 days.

Tae laidir

Met Eireann reporting recent snow in Mullingar at 20.00.

M.T. Cranium

IMT fell to 9.8 after 20 days.

So, it would appear that the first snow has certainly fallen now (at Knock, Mullingar and possibly other locations). If it fell earlier in the month this won't matter to our contest scoring since the three earliest predictions were 21 Nov (Joe Public), 26 Nov (DOCARCH) and 28 Nov (John mac). That's where the 10 points will be going, along with Norma L at 27 Nov. I will score the rest in groups of three down to five points and then groups of two for the rest.

Next update tomorrow will also deal with PRC and SUN, I expect the IMT will be down around 9.5 by then.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

The IMT has fallen to 9.4 after a more normal week at 7.7 C.

PRC remains high, at 157% of normal, with this past week 150%.

SUN was still quite low, the month sits at 86% after a week at only 71%.

The MIN will probably be set tonight, not sure where that stands so far.

Schadenfreudia

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The MIN will probably be set tonight, not sure where that stands so far.

indeed - and we all hope that figure will be -3.0C

pauldry

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

indeed - and we all hope that figure will be -3.0C

No no no -3.7c though clouds building

Schadenfreudia

pauldry wrote: »

No no no -3.7c though clouds building

Where? :eek:

pauldry

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

Where? :eek:

Here gone up to 3.1c to n Shligooo

M.T. Cranium

I saw several -2 hourly reports at Casement, Oak Park then it started to get a bit milder. We'll see how they finished up. Casement already reporting a low of -1.7 for Sunday but that was probably at midnight heading into this morning.

Schadenfreudia

It started a steep rise as early as 2.30am here - we only had zub-zero air for 2 hours before the föhn blew in!

Lowest here was a sad minus 0.4C - they seem to have got to around minus 1.5C in the SW suburbs.

pauldry

-2.7c in casement

Dunsany could be close to that

M.T. Cranium

IMT has fallen to 9.2 after 22 days, the slide will begin to slow this week, but final value seems likely to be about 8.6 or 8.7.

It was fun while it lasted.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT was 9.0 C through 23 and 24 days.

MIN appears to have been the -2.7 C at Casement on Monday.

Schadenfreudia

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The IMT was 9.0 C through 23 and 24 days.

MIN appears to have been the -2.7 C at Casement on Monday.

No change after today I'd guess?