Rep of Ireland (1) vs Bosnia (1), Euro qualifier playoff 2nd leg

Dots1982

Wrote this up last night in anticipation of the tie over the weekend and Monday,,


Preview on Bosnia vs Ireland:


Ireland face up to Bosnia Herzegovina with qualification seen more as hope than an expectation. Our prospects are further dented by the doubts over the availability of John O’Shea & Shane Long.



Although our win over Germany offers hope it didn’t actually break too much from the level of performance Ireland usually provide in terms of stats. Ireland are, I would argue, one of the most consistent teams on earth in terms of our level of performance:



Against decent opposition Ireland will usually score one goal but never two goals. They’ll usually concede one goal, sometimes two goals but no more than that. They’ll almost always get more cards than the opposition and have flirted with getting a red card throughout this campaign. This doesn’t change a whole lot home or away.

Therefore if Bosnia score three goals in the 180 mins they will almost certainly go through. Ireland do not have the goalscorers in their team to punish the weakness in the Bosnian defence. Ireland’s main hope of qualification is for Dzeko , Ibsevic, Pjanic etc to endure two horrible nights in front of goal and Ireland to realise their expected potential of scoring 2 goals over the 180 mins and having that as enough to take them through.


There is a huge preoccupation amongst Ireland’s fans and media with the team’s inability to play possession football or be creative on the ball. What has been completely overlooked is that what Ireland need above all is goalscorers. When Ireland were last a solid competitive side against quality opposition in 2001 they had 1, 2 or 3 players in every line of the field that could do what needed to be done (score a goal); Harte, Breen, Holland, Kinsella, Roy, Quinn, Robbie, Mcateer all had a goal in them. These days our players don’t score at club level and don’t score at international level. Our media love to suggest what a creative player like Wes Hoolahan can bring to our team but Wes doesn’t score goals. I would swap Wes and Shane Long away in the morning for a prime level Kevin Nolan, Nikita Jelavic or Tim Cahill. A player who is decisive. When if three to five crosses are delivered into the box, they are virtually guaranteed to convert one even if they are not particularly gifted technically.


Martin O’Neill, to his credit, sets up with a system that recognises this and aims to get balls into the box from set pieces or early crosses from Brady. Unfortunately Daryl Murphy is just not up to the standard required to be decisive at international level so even when the delivery is good we don’t make it count.


I believe Ireland’s best hope of realising the impossible dream of scoring three goals versus Bosnia is Seamus Coleman. On his day he is a cut above any of our other players. Whenever Everton achieve a shock versus the Arsenal’s, Man U’s or Chelsea, Coleman is always central. His runs down the wing are renlentless. His tireless attitude which allow him to hit the opposition byline while still putting in a good defensive shift marks him out as a player that can take Ireland to an extra level. On the other hand I have never seen Wes dominate a game for Norwich when they played a top 4 side. He is a decisive player for the games versus Bournemouth etc but apart from that he is overhyped.


The Irish media like to praise Coleman even when he achieves little. He was awarded Ireland’s MOTM last month versus Poland when all he did was to keep an average plodder like Grozicky quiet. He only hit the opposition byline once in the entire game. This is simply not good enough. For Ireland to excel O’Neill has to demand Coleman hit the opposition byline with the ball four or five times a game. This will give us an edge and keep Bosnia modest. If all we see from Coleman is a solid defensive display then I can’t see it being enough for Ireland to achieve qualification.

Prediction: 2 - 1 to Bosnia (1-0 in Bosnia, 1-1 in Dublin)

NIMAN

Even with a full side I think it would be a tough game, with all our injuries I can't see us overcoming a good Bosnia side.

RedemptionZ

Nice right up OP

I don't think it's too outrageous to say we can win this, but if I was a betting man, and I am, I'd be putting a fair bit on Bosnia. I think they'll score more than two goals over the two legs which as you say is generally enough to beat us.

That_Guy

Oh, I thought this was about a special one-off celebratory tie I could wear on the night. Disappointing.

briany

Ireland have been involved in 6 playoff ties, that I can remember. Of those, they had 2 fairly handy ones against Iran and Estonia. The other 4 have all been losses to sides we could reasonably say were comparably matched to Ireland or better. Bosnia are of similar quality and so the odds look to be broadly in favour of a Bosnian win, not just because of Ireland's poor playoff record, but also because they've really made hard work of it v. teams like Scotland and Poland in this campaign. The result against Germany was a fantastic one but could also be called an exception. There's no real reason why Ireland can't go out and play a good game other than an overly conservative mindset. And by good game, I don't mean attempting tika-taka but adding something more cerebral to the usual robust and direct game the team favours.

It'll be a tough tie, but it's very winnable. Ireland need to know when to go at the game with a bit of gumption, 'cause I think that's what will be needed. Playing a timid and conservative game for 180 mins, feeding off the scraps of long balls will invariably lead to the team's exit from Euro 2016, and not undeservedly so. And even if the team got through on that, would anyone seriously be anticipating anything other than a tepid repeat of Euro 2012?

RedemptionZ

That_Guy wrote: »

Oh, I thought this was about a special one-off celebratory tie I could wear on the night. Disappointing.

John Delaney will be throwing them into the crowd before the match

Paully D

A best priced 11/10 for us to qualify versus Bosnia's 5/6. It doesn't get much closer than that.

keeponhurling

Expecting Bosnia to qualify, they have better players and form.

However we can hope.

It's so many years since we had a big away win , the run will end eventually.

We have a few injuries , but the win over Germany also came despite an injury crisis.
It can be done

NIMAN

What about 50 on Bosnia to qualify, that way its a win-win?

SantryRed

It's not gonna be a runaway win for Bosnia or anything of the sort. It'll be tight and it'll be cagey. We badly, badly, badly need to score on Friday, I don't think we go through without one.

NIMAN

Do away goals count, or will there be extra time on Monday in the event of an aggregate draw?

Ferris_Bueller

Away goals do count. I think that means if it goes to extra time on Monday Bosnia will have slight advantage, as they will have an extra 30 mins to score an away goal, then again we get an extra 30 mins in front of 50,000 Irish fans.

Rikand

2-1 Bosnia first leg
1-0 us on the return

We go thru on away goals.

Let's do this.

PTH2009

3-0 Bosnia 1st leg
0-0 2ND leg

TheCitizen

Ireland will qualify.

BOHtox

Ireland 1 nil both legs.

The_B_Man

Both teams are gonna be too scared to do anything and it'll be 0-0 in both legs and go to either a jammy deflection in extra time, or penos.

Diabhal Beag

Bosnia will bottle it and we draw 1-1 away with a scoreless draw to qualify.

briany

The_B_Man wrote: »

Both teams are gonna be too scared to do anything and it'll be 0-0 in both legs and go to either a jammy deflection in extra time, or penos.

Yeah, I can picture it going like this. Will that jammy deflection go Ireland's way? Well, Ireland plays in a way that seeks to limit opposing teams to long range shots, and those are usually the ones that get deflected one way or the other. One of the risks of playing that game, really. I can remember quite a few power shots that only went in off a deflection, but very few of those in Ireland's favor. Therefore, it would be Bosnia to get the deflection for me.

I notice an air of Irish fans (myself included) trying not to get their hopes up about this match. Pragmatism or defeatism?

GavRedKing

I'm optimistic that we'll end up winning over the two legs.

Is there anyone carrying yellows into the game on Friday that could possibily miss the 2nd leg in Dublin?

GavRedKing

GavRedKing wrote: »

I'm optimistic that we'll end up winning over the two legs.

Is there anyone carrying yellows into the game on Friday that could possibily miss the 2nd leg in Dublin?

Don't think so, but Bosnia are @ risk though. Begovic, Hadzic & Pjanic all on Yellows I think
If we could take Pjanic out of the second leg it would be good

GavRedKing

M!Ck^ wrote: »

Don't think so, but Bosnia are @ risk though. Begovic, Hadzic & Pjanic all on Yellows I think
If we could take Pjanic out of the second leg it would be good

Cheers, I'm not sure we'll go out and play at an intensity level to draw enough fouls to put them at risk.

Still though, players getting caught wrong side of a break or totting up enough niggley fouls may do enough to get cards and woul dbe really helpful for the 2nd leg.

Pro. F

Dots1982 wrote: »

On the other hand I have never seen Wes dominate a game for Norwich when they played a top 4 side. He is a decisive player for the games versus Bournemouth etc but apart from that he is overhyped.

Wow, a small, relatively slow, creative attacking player fails to dominate games against top opposition when his team defend deep and counter directly. He must not be that good so. Typical Irish (and English) football logic.

Dots1982

Pro. F wrote: »

Wow, a small, relatively slow, creative attacking player fails to dominate games against top opposition when his team defend deep and counter directly. He must not be that good so. Typical Irish (and English) football logic.

Interesting point of view but i tend to judge players on what I see not what could be possible if they played on a better team, perhaps I'm limited that way..it is unfortunate that Wes didn't get a chance with a big club when you see the likes of Liam Miller did but that's just the way it is.

I'm not saying he isn't good, im just saying that he isn't decisive in big games like the way some other players who would be inferior technically are.

Think my point is fair and well argued..

GLaDOS

Dots1982 wrote: »

Interesting point of view but i tend to judge players on what I see not what could be possible if they played on a better team, perhaps I'm limited that way..it is unfortunate that Wes didn't get a chance with a big club when you see the likes of Liam Miller did but that's just the way it is.

I'm not saying he isn't good, im just saying that he isn't decisive in big games like the way some other players who would be inferior technically are.

Think my point is fair and well argued..

Wes was huge for us against Germany tbf, was essential for taking pressure off the defence.

Pro. F

Dots1982 wrote: »

Interesting point of view but i tend to judge players on what I see not what could be possible if they played on a better team, perhaps I'm limited that way..it is unfortunate that Wes didn't get a chance with a big club when you see the likes of Liam Miller did but that's just the way it is.

I'm not saying he isn't good, im just saying that he isn't decisive in big games like the way some other players who would be inferior technically are.

Think my point is fair and well argued..

I'm sure you were absolutely shocked then by his positive impact on the Germany game a little while ago.

Dots1982

Pro. F wrote: »

I'm sure you were absolutely shocked then by his positive impact on the Germany game a little while ago.

There's no need for the heavy sarcasm.

He had a good impact, was he decisive? No, is he decisive for Norwich in games versus the top teams? No.

Will he be decisive versus Bosnia? I would say no.

Do you expect him to score or assist our goals vs bosnia?

Pro. F

Dots1982 wrote: »

There's no need for the heavy sarcasm.

He had a good impact, was he decisive? No, is he decisive for Norwich in games versus the top teams? No.

Will he be decisive versus Bosnia? I would say no.

Do you expect him to score or assist our goals vs bosnia?

Was he decisive in the game against Germany? Of course he was. His ability to play the ball out of the German pressure and bring others into the game was hugely important in getting that result. Scoring and assisting is not the only way a player can be decisive.

I don't expect him to score. I think he'd be more likely to get an assist than most of the players we have available to us.

Dots1982

Pro. F wrote: »

Was he decisive in the game against Germany? Of course he was. His ability to play the ball out of the German pressure and bring others into the game was hugely important in getting that result. Scoring and assisting is not the only way a player can be decisive.

I don't expect him to score. I think he'd be more likely to get an assist than most of the players we have available to us.

OK what i mean by decisive as scoring or assisting or preventing goals...anything good but less than that is making a good contribution.

Was he the outstanding difference between Ireland winning and losing, unlikely.

That is pretty much the what being decisive means.

TheCitizen

Dots1982 wrote: »

He had a good impact, was he decisive? No, is he decisive for Norwich in games versus the top teams? No.

Will he be decisive versus Bosnia? I would say no.

Do you expect him to score or assist our goals vs bosnia?

Not sure what you are arguing here, are you suggesting that Hoolahan shouldn't play?

We are told his energy levels/fitness isn't up to playing two games in a short space of time. If that's the case he wont start away but he should definitely start the home match.

He is the best creative player available to us. Even if we set up to graft and keep things tight there is always room for a creative player in the side, because a creative player provides an outlet, can get on the ball and make the opposition worry about us for a bit while the rest of the team gets its breath back. It inspires the whole team if you have one or two players with a creative spark about them. The team works hard and gets the ball to the creative player.

If Hoolahan can't play both games, McGeady should start the away game despite him not being in the picture at Everton this season. Both could play the 2nd leg, Hoolahan is a definite starter in that one. If we score a few goals in the ties v Bosnia, you'll probably find that Hoolahan will be involved, if he's on the pitch.

Pro. F

Dots1982 wrote: »

OK what i mean by decisive as scoring or assisting or preventing goals...anything good but less than that is making a good contribution.

Was he the outstanding difference between Ireland winning and losing, unlikely.

That is pretty much the what being decisive means.

You think there was only one outstanding difference between Ireland winning and losing? Edit: I don't think football can be reduced to that type of thinking.

Dots1982

TheCitizen wrote: »

Not sure what you are arguing here, are you suggesting that Hoolahan shouldn't play?

We are told his energy levels/fitness isn't up to playing two games in a short space of time. If that's the case he wont start away but he should definitely start the home match.

He is the best creative player available to us. Even if we set up to graft and keep things tight there is always room for a creative player in the side, because a creative player provides an outlet, can get on the ball and make the opposition worry about us for a bit while the rest of the team gets its breath back. It inspires the whole team if you have one or two players with a creative spark about them. The team works hard and gets the ball to the creative player.

If Hoolahan can't play both games, McGeady should start the away game despite him not being in the picture at Everton this season. Both could play the 2nd leg, Hoolahan is a definite starter in that one. If we score a few goals in the ties v Bosnia, you'll probably find that Hoolahan will be involved, if he's on the pitch.

My point couldn't be much clearer if you read my preview, we don't have goalscorers hence the most we can score in 180 mins is 2 goals if you follow the stats..

There is a huge preoccupation amongst Ireland’s fans and media with the team’s inability to play possession football or be creative on the ball. What has been completely overlooked is that what Ireland need above all is goalscorers. When Ireland were last a solid competitive side against quality opposition in 2001 they had 1, 2 or 3 players in every line of the field that could do what needed to be done (score a goal); Harte, Breen, Holland, Kinsella, Roy, Quinn, Robbie, Mcateer all had a goal in them. These days our players don’t score at club level and don’t score at international level. Our media love to suggest what a creative player like Wes Hoolahan can bring to our team but Wes doesn’t score goals. I would swap Wes and Shane Long away in the morning for a prime level Kevin Nolan, Nikita Jelavic or Tim Cahill. A player who is decisive. When if three to five crosses are delivered into the box, they are virtually guaranteed to convert one even if they are not particularly gifted technically.

Francie Barrett

I suspect we will pull out a plucky hard fought draw in the first leg only to fold badly in the second leg. Just too much quality in that Bosnia team to hurt us.

TheCitizen

Dots1982 wrote: »

My point couldn't be much clearer if you read my preview, we don't have goalscorers hence the most we can score in 180 mins is 2 goals if you follow the stats..

I'll ask you again are you advocating that Hoolahan shouldn"t start either of the two games? That's a fairly clear question.

TheCitizen

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I suspect we will pull out a plucky hard fought draw in the first leg only to fold badly in the second leg. Just too much quality in that Bosnia team to hurt us.

If we get a draw in the 1st leg we'll definitely go through.

Lovely Bloke

Wes Hoolahan WAS the outstanding difference v Germany imo. He held up play really well, showed skill and intelligence in doing so. He was THE reason the German machine wasn't as unrelentless as it can usually be - his holding up and ball carrying allowed the Irish defenders, incl the Centre Mids, some respite time - he unsettled the German defence on occasion and that meant they had something other than starting attacks to think about.

Dots1982

Pro. F wrote: »

You think there was only one outstanding difference between Ireland winning and losing? Edit: I don't think football can be reduced to that type of thinking.

ah well, i disagree, the aim is to score goals to win games, so I analyse games by analysing what teams can expect to score given their personnel.

For example, Manchester united have no in-form goalscorers (same as Ireland) in their entire squad so i would say they have no chance of winning the title as they can't score the level of goals necessary to maintain a title charge.

That's just how I look at games.

TheCitizen

Baldy Conscience wrote: »

Wes Hoolahan WAS the outstanding difference v Germany imo. He held up play really well, showed skill and intelligence in doing so. He was THE reason the German machine wasn't as unrelentless as it can usually be - his holding up and ball carrying allowed the Irish defenders, incl the Centre Mids, some respite time - he unsettled the German defence on occasion and that meant they had something other than starting attacks to think about.

That's what I think. No matter how you set up as a team, it's always smart to have a creative player like Hoolahan in your team, takes the pressure of the rest of the team if nothing else.

Dots1982

TheCitizen wrote: »

I'll ask you again are you advocating that Hoolahan shouldn"t start either of the two games? That's a fairly clear question.

Yes he should start both if he is able. I just see Seamus Coleman as a more important player.

Dots1982

Dots1982 wrote: »

Yes he should start both if he is able. I just see Seamus Coleman as a more important player.

To be fair his international form has been questionable and I'm not even sure if he has contributed an assist in the whole campaign so I don't understand how you can come to that conclusion that he's more important.

I really think it was clearly evident that Hoolahan was the difference between us getting hammered and us getting an actual result. 0-0 or 1-0 we would have never had a chance if somebody wasn't willing to show some composure when we actually had possession.

Dots1982

M!Ck^ wrote: »

To be fair his international form has been questionable and I'm not even sure if he has contributed an assist in the whole campaign so I don't understand how you can come to that conclusion that he's more important.

I really think it was clearly evident that Hoolahan was the difference between us getting hammered and us getting an actual result. 0-0 or 1-0 we would have never had a chance if somebody wasn't willing to show some composure when we actually had possession.

You are correct and I say as much in my preview that he is lavished with praise by the irish media too easily but i base my opinion on what he achieves at club level. He is decisive in big games versus big teams in a way i've never seen Wes been able to.

Dots1982

Dots1982 wrote: »

You are correct and I say as much in my preview that he is lavished with praise by the irish media too easily but i base my opinion on what he achieves at club level. He is decisive in big games versus big teams in a way i've never seen Wes been able to.

You are entitled to your opinion of course but surely you can back up this statement? Who are these "big teams" that Coleman has played against where he has actually made the difference this campaign? I can't think of any. I assume you mean either Germany, Poland or Scotland?

I repeat Hoolahan was the decisive factor in the biggest game of the campaign and that is why we got a result against Germany in the Aviva.
I know Long scored but we wouldn't of had a hope in hell getting anything out of the game without Wes.

Dots1982

M!Ck^ wrote: »

You are entitled to your opinion of course but surely you can back up this statement? Who are these "big teams" that Coleman has played against where he has actually made the difference this campaign? I can't think of any. I assume you mean either Germany, Poland or Scotland?

I repeat Hoolahan was the decisive factor in the biggest game of the campaign and that is why we got a result against Germany in the Aviva.
I know Long scored but we wouldn't of had a hope in hell getting anything out of the game without Wes.

i said at club level...

Dots1982

Dots1982 wrote: »

i said at club level...

Ok fair enough but my point is that he hasn't produced his club form at international level and I think most fans will tell you that.

So on balance Wes has done it in the big games for the ROI and Coleman has not.

That's why Wes is more important to this team than Seamus is IMO

Dots1982

M!Ck^ wrote: »

Ok fair enough but my point is that he hasn't produced his club form at international level and I think most fans will tell you that.

So on balance Wes has done it in the big games for the ROI and Coleman has not.

That's why Wes is more important to this team than Seamus is IMO

Well its certainly a debateable and i brought up Coleman in my preview as much to criticise him as to laud him.

I like the sounds he is making this week in the press conference though, talking about lads needing to step up, hopefully talk is not cheap

Pro. F

Dots1982 wrote: »

ah well, i disagree, the aim is to score goals to win games, so I analyse games by analysing what teams can expect to score given their personnel.

For example, Manchester united have no in-form goalscorers (same as Ireland) in their entire squad so i would say they have no chance of winning the title as they can't score the level of goals necessary to maintain a title charge.

That's just how I look at games.

Nobody is disputing that the aim is to score goals, not concede them and win games. But only judging a team's ability to do that based on the quality or form of their goal scorers is misguided imo.

GLaDOS

Hoolahan has 5 assists and a goal this season in the league, don't think any other Irish player has better attacking returns? At least at PL level.

Dots1982

Pro. F wrote: »

Nobody is disputing that the aim is to score goals, not concede them and win games. But only judging a team's ability to do that based on the quality or form of their goal scorers is misguided imo.

Yes you would also judge them by what they concede..I do this over a decent period of time like 2 months of a league or an entire qualification campaign and you look at the patterns and make conclusions.

Pro. F

ScienceNerd wrote: »

Hoolahan has 5 assists and a goal this season in the league, don't think any other Irish player has better attacking returns? At least at PL level.

So far this season (link) he has better goal scoring and creating numbers than Iniesta has put up this season or last in La Liga and the Champions League. It's only a small sample size so far, but still impressive for what it is.

Pro. F

Dots1982 wrote: »

Yes you would also judge them by what they concede..I do this over a decent period of time like 2 months of a league or an entire qualification campaign and you look at the patterns and make conclusions.

What you get then are conclusions about how likely a team are to win games, but not how they are winning games.

Dots1982

Pro. F wrote: »

What you get then are conclusions about how likely a team are to win games, but not how they are winning games.

well if you see a trend like you do with ireland that they have an inability to score more than one goal in a game you see both to a large extent.

I believe there is way too much fluffy talk about our conservative style of play and far too little about our main issue....we don't produce goal scorers