Connacht Rugby Thread - Part III - The Violence of the Lams

former total

connachta wrote: »

Oh come on! Is Glasgow scrum so powerful?
Because if not I can't see any other position where they are above of us!
Look at our full-strenght backline, look at McKeon and Heenan both back to the business, look at Dillane/Muldowney pairing!

Don't tell me I'm the most optmistic, it's so unusual!

I think the scrum is actually the least of Connacht's worries, Glasgow have a decent front row but not world beating.

You've cited the Dillane/Muldowney pairing. Ehhh, Glasgow will have Johnny Gray and Leone Nakarawa...

Backrow; they have Ryan Wilson, Rob Harley and Josh Strauss - that is a better unit than Heenan/McKeon/Muldoon.

Their back three of Seymour, Naiyaravoro and Hogg is a big step up from Healy, Niyi and TOH. Connacht have the edge at centre with Aki and Henshaw, no doubt.

But the biggest difference is out-half. Russell is quite simply on a different planet to anyone Connacht can field. If he gets motoring...

All that said, it's in Galway, should be a full house, and if Aki is fit then anything is possible, but on paper, Glasgow are much better.

ClanofLams

thomond2006 wrote: »

I'm going by results. It was their win at Scarlets that caught my eye, they absolutely torched them.

Worth pointing out that Scarlets had some sort of virus that week which was apparently affecting 20 plus players two days before the game. But there's no question that Glasgow are the form team in the league.

Bazzo

former total wrote: »

connachta wrote: »

Oh come on! Is Glasgow scrum so powerful?
Because if not I can't see any other position where they are above of us!
Look at our full-strenght backline, look at McKeon and Heenan both back to the business, look at Dillane/Muldowney pairing!

Don't tell me I'm the most optmistic, it's so unusual!

I think the scrum is actually the least of Connacht's worries, Glasgow have a decent front row but not world beating.

You've cited the Dillane/Muldowney pairing. Ehhh, Glasgow will have Johnny Gray and Leone Nakarawa...

Backrow; they have Ryan Wilson, Rob Harley and Josh Strauss - that is a better unit than Heenan/McKeon/Muldoon.

Their back three of Seymour, Naiyaravoro and Hogg is a big step up from Healy, Niyi and TOH. Connacht have the edge at centre with Aki and Henshaw, no doubt.

But the biggest difference is out-half. Russell is quite simply on a different planet to anyone Connacht can field. If he gets motoring...

All that said, it's in Galway, should be a full house, and if Aki is fit then anything is possible, but on paper, Glasgow are much better.

You're underselling certain players here. Individually they may shade some of those head to heads but as a unit a lot of those Connacht players go very well together. The Dillane/Muldowney second row and Muldoon/McKeon/Heenan back row I would trust to at least gain parity with their opposite numbers in Galway.

You're right about out half though. Finn Russell is a quality player

Adbrowne

its_phil wrote: »

As did Leinster and that kind of weather suits Leinster much more than it suits Connacht these days.

I never said leinster do though

former total

Bazzo wrote: »

You're underselling certain players here. Individually they may shade some of those head to heads but as a unit a lot of those Connacht players go very well together. The Dillane/Muldowney second row and Muldoon/McKeon/Heenan back row I would trust to at least gain parity with their opposite numbers in Galway.

You're right about out half though. Finn Russell is a quality player

It's not meant as a dig at anyone, and I think the back-row is a definite area of strength for Connacht, but equally for someone to say that the best team in the league over the last three seasons aren't better in any areas was somewhat surprising...

connachta

Yeah our back-row will at least have parity
Russell is not player of the year, and if Carty plays "Gloucester's way" I'm not afraid
Their 2nd row should be outpowered, Dillane and Muldowney are beasts
Their wingers should be outsped
Bennett is their worse threat, centre is the only area I don't feel confident about

So Former, I get your points and disagree with all of them...

LostArt

Did Billy hack your account?!

its_phil

connachta wrote: »

Their 2nd row should be outpowered, Dillane and Muldowney are beasts

Think you'll find a lot of disagreement here compared to Gray and Nakarawa.

connachta

its_phil wrote: »

connachta wrote: »

Their 2nd row should be outpowered, Dillane and Muldowney are beasts

Think you'll find a lot of disagreement here compared to Gray and Nakarawa.

Wait and see.
I'm convinced Glasgow strenght on the last few season has been their back-line, not their forwards. Rain, for once, may suit us.

The only issue for me are the rucks. Connacht carrier often lacks support, it's an old problem, and Glasgow pack is really really good to come in this phase quickly and effeciently

wp_rathead

Nakawara is probably the best SR in the northern Hemisphere, and Johnny Gray ain't no slouch either
We do have a great second row unit in our own right but to say we have advantage there is pretty delusional I'm afraid

thomond2006

Is their a better second row partnership at club level than Gray and Nakarawa? I don't think so. It's such a blow to the league that Nakarawa is leaving.

I also miss Psycho Niko at 9.

Yeah_Right

its_phil wrote: »

Think you'll find a lot of disagreement here compared to Gray and Nakarawa.

Yeah that was the craziest one he came up with. Gray and Nakarawa are 2 of the best locks in the NH. Gray will be a Lion next year. Muldowney is a good journeyman player doing a great job for his club. Dillane has a lot of potential and may be a Lion some day. Definite edge to Glasgow there.

its_phil

connachta wrote: »

Wait and see.
I'm convinced Glasgow strenght on the last few season has been their back-line, not their forwards. Rain, for once, may suit us.

The only issue for me are the rucks. Connacht carrier often lacks support, it's an old problem, and Glasgow pack is really really good to come in this phase quickly and effeciently

Rucks certainly not a problem for me, our backs and forwards are very good with their footwork here especially when we're moving backwards with the pod of 4 in the middle of the field. It's Muldowney usually in this position.

Those Glasgow backs have been getting behind defences more often than not thanks to Nakarawas offloading game.

its_phil

Yeah_Right wrote: »

Yeah that was the craziest one he came up with. Gray and Nakarawa are 2 of the best locks in the NH. Gray will be a Lion next year. Muldowney is a good journeyman player doing a great job for his club. Dillane has a lot of potential and may be a Lion some day. Definite edge to Glasgow there.

I don't think it's a weakness area for Connacht either, just don't see it as a strength over Glasgow and heavily respect their pairing.

b.gud

I had kinda forgotten that the Glasgow 2nd row was Gray and Nakarawa until I read this conversation.

wp_rathead

thomond2006 wrote: »

Is their a better second row partnership at club level than Gray and Nakarawa? I don't think so. It's such a blow to the league that Nakarawa is leaving.

I also miss Psycho Niko at 9.

Only partnership that comes close of the top of my head are Kruis and Itoje for Saracens

connachta

Nakarawa isn't god on earth either. He knocks on sometimes when it rains. And it will

connachta

its_phil wrote: »

Yeah_Right wrote: »

Yeah that was the craziest one he came up with. Gray and Nakarawa are 2 of the best locks in the NH. Gray will be a Lion next year. Muldowney is a good journeyman player doing a great job for his club. Dillane has a lot of potential and may be a Lion some day. Definite edge to Glasgow there.

I don't think it's a weakness area for Connacht either, just don't see it as a strength over Glasgow and heavily respect their pairing.

There I tend to agree. Went over my head, but I keep thinking it can be parity, same for back-row

thomond2006

connachta wrote: »

Nakarawa isn't god on earth either. He knocks on sometimes when it rains. And it will

I'm loving this new positive connachta.

connachta

thomond2006 wrote: »

connachta wrote: »

Nakarawa isn't god on earth either. He knocks on sometimes when it rains. And it will

I'm loving this new positive connachta.

Really trying to be coherent with myself, even against the crowd opinion
Sometimes I am right (Treviso away loss, Leinster home win)
Sometimes I am wrong (Scarlets home win, Ulster home loss)

This time, hope I'll be right

wp_rathead

connachta wrote: »

Nakarawa isn't god on earth either. He knocks on sometimes when it rains. And it will

You're right as it's scheduled to rain and "only god controls the weather" :pac:

connemara man

wp_rathead wrote: »

You're right as it's scheduled to rain and "only god controls the weather" :pac:

I see what you did there

Number 137

connachta wrote: »

Yeah our back-row will at least have parity
Russell is not player of the year, and if Carty plays "Gloucester's way" I'm not afraid
Their 2nd row should be outpowered, Dillane and Muldowney are beasts
Their wingers should be outsped
Bennett is their worse threat, centre is the only area I don't feel confident about

So Former, I get your points and disagree with all of them...

Saying that Connacht's wingers are faster does not mean they will out play their opposite numbers. If the weather is awful, it becomes even less relevant. Seymour is a very steady winger, and while Naiyorovoro could be targeted by Connacht's kicking game, a 125 kg winger can be useful in bad weather. I'd be delighted if Connacht win, but your logic is lacking in logic.

ClanofLams

Every province has supporters with 'extreme' views so I'm not in any way slagging off Leinster supporters here but my god they are having an absolute fit on babbling brook over the Kelleher move.

Demented Mole refers to Kelleher as the 'chubby Michaels me féiner', another as 'selfish and self centred'.

Widespread condemnation of Nucifora, posters wonndering if Dawson could press the 'nuclear button' and try to take Leinster private. Others suggesting 'the death of Leinster rugby as we know it is imminent.'

Hilarious reading.

To be fair there is a couple of sane posters pointing out the crazy overreaction, led by molloyjh of this village.

connachta

http://www.epcrugby.com/matchcentre/31574.php
That's a proof they can lose (home), with their best players, and against a team which is not top of their league at all this season

connachta

Number 137 wrote: »

connachta wrote: »

Yeah our back-row will at least have parity
Russell is not player of the year, and if Carty plays "Gloucester's way" I'm not afraid
Their 2nd row should be outpowered, Dillane and Muldowney are beasts
Their wingers should be outsped
Bennett is their worse threat, centre is the only area I don't feel confident about

So Former, I get your points and disagree with all of them...

Saying that Connacht's wingers are faster does not mean they will out play their opposite numbers. If the weather is awful, it becomes even less relevant. Seymour is a very steady winger, and while Naiyorovoro could be targeted by Connacht's kicking game, a 125 kg winger can be useful in bad weather. I'd be delighted if Connacht win, but your logic is lacking in logic.

Healy's and Niyi's footwork matters when heavy wingers can slip in the rain, less at ease. Let's see...

its_phil

connachta wrote: »

http://www.epcrugby.com/matchcentre/31574.php
That's a proof they can lose (home), with their best players, and against a team which is not top of their league at all this season

Only couple games together after RWC compared to England who got the boot in group stages. Not really relevant

MarinersBlues

Number 137 wrote: »

Saying that Connacht's wingers are faster does not mean they will out play their opposite numbers. If the weather is awful, it becomes even less relevant.

It's only going to rain in the middle of the pitch.

It is known.

Number 137

connachta wrote: »

Healy's and Niyi's footwork matters when heavy wingers can slip in the rain, less at ease. Let's see...

I hope you are right. I'd just worry that if the weather is brutal that Connacht will continue to play their expansive game at their own cost. There were times at Leinster away when a more pragmatic approach may have been more sensible. I've loved watching Connacht this season, but the best teams are adaptable. Glasgow are superbly coached and will adapt to the conditions. I'm not saying this is exactly how it will play out, but I just hope Connacht get over the line and don't lose out on a home semi final because of a possible lack of pragmatism.

connachta

Number 137 wrote: »

connachta wrote: »

Healy's and Niyi's footwork matters when heavy wingers can slip in the rain, less at ease. Let's see...

I hope you are right. I'd just worry that if the weather is brutal that Connacht will continue to play their expansive game at their own cost. There were times at Leinster away when a more pragmatic approach may have been more sensible. I've loved watching Connacht this season, but the best teams are adaptable. Glasgow are superbly coached and will adapt to the conditions. I'm not saying this is exactly how it will play out, but I just hope Connacht get over the line and don't lose out on a home semi final because of a possible lack of pragmatism.

Totally agree, it's "kick it" or die IMO

connachta

its_phil wrote: »

connachta wrote: »

http://www.epcrugby.com/matchcentre/31574.php
That's a proof they can lose (home), with their best players, and against a team which is not top of their league at all this season

Only couple games together after RWC compared to England who got the boot in group stages. Not really relevant

Oh come on! 35 days after Scotland RWC loss in England (where most of them played together btw). That's relevant

Adbrowne

connachta wrote: »

Oh come on! 35 days after Scotland loss in RWC. That's relevant

At this stage of the season it's not. Glasgow have serious momentum at the right time.

connachta

I know that. Doesn't mean their best players are unbeatable, proof is for this. Series end. It's now. What happened to the confidence everyone here showed for Munster game? Just because Glasgow have beaten correct teams home recently, and poor teams away (Italians, sick Scarlets)?? Doesn't mean anything against a proper Connacht team away.
I'm not carried away, it will be touchy. But I think we are rather slight favorite than the contrary.

FACECUTTR

We have to play better than any game this season for the full 80. If not we could lose by 20 or more. I hope I'm wrong.

former total

I see that Connacht's odds have drifted slightly, they were 2-point underdogs, handicap is now 3.

Zzippy

former total wrote: »

I see that Connacht's odds have drifted slightly, they were 2-point underdogs, handicap is now 3.

Bookies reading this forum... we're looking for a cut of the spread margin profits... (boards running short on hamster rations)

connachta

At least I'm here, if not bookies would have us + 10...

Billysays no

connachta wrote: »

At least I'm here, if not bookies would have us + 10...

I would have added another +10 to that :-). Glasgow are a good team but they fundamentally suffer from Scotland syndrome. They play an open expansive and fast game with the weakness being fundamental mistakes.

So many might say that Connacht play the same game and if you were to go on statistics this would probably be easily proven true. But lets take the Leinster Connacht game as an example. We can defend and shut teams out if we need to do so.

Other than Denis we will field a squad (sorry Craig and Peter) that would most supporters would consider their first 15. While I may be hugely critical of Robbies performances I do want his experience and physicality at 12.

In such a huge game you have to back your big players to perform over less experienced players. This is not to say that the Connacht gameplan will be any different. Why would you change that now.

So we will win because physically we will beat Glasgow and then we will beat them with Marmions sniping runs, Healys mad footwork and TOH's ability to draw the opposition and provide the most amazing passes to open up the space.

And of course we have the Bundee factor which effectively means the try bonus point is nailed down :-)

Buer

I don't think you understand handicap betting.

Billysays no

Buer wrote: »

I don't think you understand handicap betting.

probably not. do i care. not really. go connacht

Adbrowne

Billysays no wrote: »

I would have added another +10 to that :-). Glasgow are a good team but they fundamentally suffer from Scotland syndrome. They play an open expansive and fast game with the weakness being fundamental mistakes.

So many might say that Connacht play the same game and if you were to go on statistics this would probably be easily proven true. But lets take the Leinster Connacht game as an example. We can defend and shut teams out if we need to do so.

Other than Denis we will field a squad (sorry Craig and Peter) that would most supporters would consider their first 15. While I may be hugely critical of Robbies performances I do want his experience and physicality at 12.

In such a huge game you have to back your big players to perform over less experienced players. This is not to say that the Connacht gameplan will be any different. Why would you change that now.

So we will win because physically we will beat Glasgow and then we will beat them with Marmions sniping runs, Healys mad footwork and TOH's ability to draw the opposition and provide the most amazing passes to open up the space.

And of course we have the Bundee factor which effectively means the try bonus point is nailed down :-)

Leinster and Glasgow are two different teams so what worked for connacht v leinster might not work v glasgow. Glasgow dont suffer from scotland syndrome as you put it. They are reigning champions with a very good side at top form, peaking at the right time of the season. This is akin to knockout rugby and Glasgow have more experience of winning at that level now which is possibly going to be a key factor.

Think this will be tight enough and can see both sides taking shots at goal when on offer rather then going to the corner. One side might get the TBP but would be surprised if both did.

Billysays no

Adbrowne wrote: »

Leinster and Glasgow are two different teams so what worked for connacht v leinster might not work v glasgow. Glasgow dont suffer from scotland syndrome as you put it. They are reigning champions with a very good side at top form, peaking at the right time of the season. This is akin to knockout rugby and Glasgow have more experience of winning at that level now which is possibly going to be a key factor.

Think this will be tight enough and can see both sides taking shots at goal when on offer rather then going to the corner. One side might get the TBP but would be surprised if both did.

While my opinion may be flawed I suspect your opinion on connacht taking shots at goal is most unlikely. If what I beleive is right I suspect AJ will start (I have said it over and over again (as thomond puts it broken record) and because he is not a reliable penalty taker, connacht will go for field position when any penalty opportunity arises (unless the simplest of kicks).

Maybe glasgow will do this but connacht most certainly will not be doing what you describe

oneofakind32

My major concern is the scrum with Buckley and Whitey out. If we get dominated in the scrum again like we did last weekend, we could be in for an awful beating. Buckley's work around the park will be missed also. Awful timing for him personally as well. He would have been looking to push for a spot on the SA tour.

Adbrowne

Billysays no wrote: »

While my opinion may be flawed I suspect your opinion on connacht taking shots at goal is most unlikely. If what I beleive is right I suspect AJ will start (I have said it over and over again (as thomond puts it broken record) and because he is not a reliable penalty taker, connacht will go for field position when any penalty opportunity arises (unless the simplest of kicks).

Maybe glasgow will do this but connacht most certainly will not be doing what you describe

At some point connacht will have to take points, like i dont expect pens beyond the 10m line or close to touch to be kicked at goal. But if connacht want to win silverware at some point they will have to play the game situation and what us at stake. Glasgows defence will be much more organised then Grenobles IMO.

connachta

Adbrowne wrote: »

Billysays no wrote: »

While my opinion may be flawed I suspect your opinion on connacht taking shots at goal is most unlikely. If what I beleive is right I suspect AJ will start (I have said it over and over again (as thomond puts it broken record) and because he is not a reliable penalty taker, connacht will go for field position when any penalty opportunity arises (unless the simplest of kicks).

Maybe glasgow will do this but connacht most certainly will not be doing what you describe

At some point connacht will have to take points, like i dont expect pens beyond the 10m line or close to touch to be kicked at goal.

Don't you think Cooney touchline conversion is a sign of times to come?

Bazzo

connachta wrote: »

Adbrowne wrote: »

Billysays no wrote: »

While my opinion may be flawed I suspect your opinion on connacht taking shots at goal is most unlikely. If what I beleive is right I suspect AJ will start (I have said it over and over again (as thomond puts it broken record) and because he is not a reliable penalty taker, connacht will go for field position when any penalty opportunity arises (unless the simplest of kicks).

Maybe glasgow will do this but connacht most certainly will not be doing what you describe

At some point connacht will have to take points, like i dont expect pens beyond the 10m line or close to touch to be kicked at goal.

Don't you think Cooney touchline conversion is a sign of times to come?

Cooney won't be on the pitch for most of the game.

b.gud

Glasgow team
15. Stuart Hogg
14. Tommy Seymour
13. Alex Dunbar
12. Peter Horne
11. Lee Jones
10. Finn Russell
9. Ali Price

1. Gordon Reid
2. Fraser Brown
3. Sila Puafisi
4. Leone Nakarawa
5. Jonny Gray (Captain)
6. Rob Harley
7. Ryan Wilson
8. Josh Strauss

Replacements

16. Pat MacArthur
17. Jerry Yanuyanutawa
18. Zander Fagerson
19. Tim Swinson
20. Simone Favaro
21. Grayson Hart
22. Mark Bennett
23. Sean Lamont

Not available due to injury: Alex Allan (concussion), Junior Bulumakau (foot), Rory Clegg (ankle), Jarrod Firth (concussion), Ryan Grant (arm), Sam Johnson (hamstring), Henry Pyrgos (neck), Fergus Scott (shoulder) and Richie Vernon (shoulder).

b.gud

Connacht team to face Glasgow Warriors, Saturday 7th May, the Sportsground, 3pm

15 Tiernan O’Halloran
14 Niyi Adeolokun
13 Robbie Henshaw
12 Bundee Aki
11 Matt Healy
10 AJ MacGinty
9 Kieran Marmion

1 Ronan Loughney
2 Tom McCartney
3 Finlay Bealham
4 Ultan Dillane
5 Aly Muldowney
6 Sean O’Brien
7 Jake Heenan
8 John Muldoon (captain)

Replacements:

16 Dave Heffernan
17 JP Cooney
18 Rodney Ah You
19 Quinn Roux
20 Eoin McKeon
21 John Cooney
22 Shane O’Leary
23 Peter Robb

ClanofLams

Strange to see Carty out of the 23 altogether. Front row a concern, especially replacements. Other than that, good team.

wp_rathead

Front row a concern - Loughney got bossed against Treviso, hopefully with Finlay playing will help Ronan out

Thought McKeon would be starting ahead of SOB but not alot in it, O'Brien been playing great stuff lately

O'Leary over Jack on the bench is the stand out- but fair play to Shane he must be tearing it up in training