Connacht Rugby Thread - Part III - The Violence of the Lams

Bazzo

They'll have to take this game seriously. Twice in the last few months we've had a number done on us by an Italian team we expected to hammer.

connemara man

The second you don't take the Italian teams seriously is when they beat you. Also they target Connacht over other teams

wp_rathead

Ah nothing about not taking them seriously
Same pack vs Toulouse bar O'Brien in for McKeon
Same backline bar start Marmion, move Kelleher FB to cover TOH and start either Poolman and Ili, and have Parata at 13

That side is more than capable of getting a TBP Win.

Only reason thinking leaving Bundee out is because has taken bangs to the head vs Ulster and then vs Toulouse, and he is going to be playing against Leinster and Dragons- so this probably best opportunity

That said there is a break coming up so maybe not needed

Robbo

The Archives of Pain, Week 8. New information in bold.

Player|Injury|Date of Injury|Expected Return
Eoin Griffin|Concussion|Eagles -v- Pirates|Protcols
Tiernan O'Halloran|Knee|Toulouse (H)|Unknown
Tom McCartney|Hamstring|Edinburgh (H)|End of November
Denis Buckley|Knee|Edinburgh (H)|November
Matt Healy|Broken Hand|Edinburgh (H)|End of November
Peter Robb|Hip|Training/Pre-Ulster (H)|Rehab
Dominic Robertson-McCoy|Arm|Training - Mid-Sept|6-8 Weeks
Ivan Soroka|Foot|AIL|Unknown
Josh Rowland|Ankle - Surgery|Unknown|Mid-Late October
Ben Marshall|Concussion|Last Season|Unknown
Nepia Fox-Matamua|Hamstring|Glasgow (H)|November
Eoghan Masterson|Knee|Last Season|December
John Cooney|Shoulder|Glorious Pro12 Final|Partial Training
Marnitz Boshoff|SA|Currently Packing Bags|Friday 21/10/2016
Darragh Leader|Hand|Pre-Season|February
Ciaran Gaffney|Unknown|Unknown|Unknown


Lowdnes and Parata both played for the Eagles last weekend. Roux should be regarded as available but I'd imagine Boshoff will be given a few sessions to settle in. Therefore I'm counting 16 players unavailable which is as low as it's been this season, I think.

Cathalthesmart

When will Connacht confirm that Marshall is retiring?

wp_rathead

wp_rathead wrote: »

Ah nothing about not taking them seriously
Same pack vs Toulouse bar O'Brien in for McKeon
Same backline bar start Marmion, move Kelleher FB to cover TOH and start either Poolman and Ili, and have Parata at 13

That side is more than capable of getting a TBP Win.

Only reason thinking leaving Bundee out is because has taken bangs to the head vs Ulster and then vs Toulouse, and he is going to be playing against Leinster and Dragons- so this probably best opportunity

That said there is a break coming up so maybe not needed

Actually scrap this - more I think about it, no point busting our balls to make Champions Cup to then rest our best player in one of the games

Cathalthesmart

Connacht have 2 games where they need to play there best team, then after that throw someone like Robb in until another important game comes up.

connachta

wp_rathead wrote: »

Probably controversial, but would it be worth resting Aki for this one? He has played a lot this season already and taken some big whalops to his "coconut head"
Keep same backline but Parata 13 and Kelleher to FB and either Poolman or Ili 11?

Im sure SOB2.0 will start - he was brilliant when he came on

Marmion + Poolman in, Cian moved to FB that's enough change for the backline; keep going with our functioning centre pairing.
But I'll be more controversial than you are, our pack will be stable, and having watched Toulouse game again, McKeon was unseen worker but great one. Why not having both him and SOB at n 8, and give Muldoon a little rest on the bench (he played every single minutes this season AFAIK)???

If your going to rest players I'd rest them against Leinster but not Zebre for a lot of reasons but mostly my own bias.

connachta

Deleted User wrote: »

If your going to rest players I'd rest them against Leinster but not Zebre for a lot of reasons but mostly my own bias.

Agree HCUP is the main competition now we failed in September and delivered against Toulouse
But SOB would bring as much stamina as tired Muldoon.

connachta

I DO think Quinn will play now, look at his determination on the 5 pics of him taken today


May even take the kicking duties from Carty:D

ClanofLams

Wouldn't call Europe the main competition at all. Obviously a few disappointing results at the start of the Pro12 but we have already made up some ground with 5 points v Ulster at home as opposed to one last season. Still contenders for top4 imo.

connachta

ClanofLams wrote: »

Wouldn't call Europe the main competition at all. Obviously a few disappointing results at the start of the Pro12 but we have already made up some ground with 5 points v Ulster at home as opposed to one last season. Still contenders for top4 imo.

Sadly no. Table split in 2, and would remain. Ospreys Cardiff and Glasgow impressive, the 3 provinces should be ahead too. in the meantime, Knock-out stages ChampionsCup would be a milestone in Connacht history and an insurance for the futur

CMOTDibbler

connachta wrote: »

I fix it by myself but thanks

connachta wrote: »

I DO think Quinn will play now, look at his determination on the 5 pics of him taken today


May even take the kicking duties from Carty:D

You're still having problems with the images. Take the =486x553 out of the above and it shoukld be fine.

connachta

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

connachta wrote: »

I fix it by myself but thanks

connachta wrote: »

I DO think Quinn will play now, look at his determination on the 5 pics of him taken today


May even take the kicking duties from Carty:D

You're still having problems with the images. Take the =486x553 out of the above and it shoukld be fine.

what is the problem?

Bazzo

Think it may be a boards issue. The picture shows fine on mobile but not on the normal site.

connachta

Bazzo wrote: »

Think it may be a boards issue. The picture shows fine on mobile but not on the normal site.

I'm on the site and it's all-right.. Maybe the opposite?

ClanofLams

connachta wrote: »

Sadly no. Table split in 2, and would remain. Ospreys Cardiff and Glasgow impressive, the 3 provinces should be ahead too. in the meantime, Knock-out stages ChampionsCup would be a milestone in Connacht history and an insurance for the futur

Connacht have 17 games left, if they get 5 points from the rescheduled game in Zebre, they will be four points of Munster and seven off the top. Defending champions aren't gonna give up their title in October because they had three bad games in September and mad to suggest they should.

Bazzo

connachta wrote: »

I'm on the site and it's all-right.. Maybe the opposite?

It may be an issue between the new & old site then. I'm using the old touch site on my mobile where it's working fine but it doesn't load for the old desktop site.

Redo91

connachta wrote: »

Sadly no. Table split in 2, and would remain. Ospreys Cardiff and Glasgow impressive, the 3 provinces should be ahead too. in the meantime, Knock-out stages ChampionsCup would be a milestone in Connacht history and an insurance for the futur

You think Munster, Ospreys and Cardiff are all ahead of us in the pecking order?!?!

Bazzo

Writing off the league this early in the season is madness. Didn't Glasgow have a very poor start last year?

Bridge93

Haven't 4 of Connachts 5 completed games been at home? Will be a tough one to pull back but definitely not out of it yet

ClanofLams

Bazzo wrote: »

Writing off the league this early in the season is madness. Didn't Glasgow have a very poor start last year?

Yep, to be fair they had 20+ players in Scotland RWC squad but we had some excuses too, with nearly that many injured and pre season shambles.

connachta

Bridge93 wrote: »

Haven't 4 of Connachts 5 completed games been at home? Will be a tough one to pull back

all is said

goals :

1) Champions Cup NOW, trying to be better than we were 3 weeks ago against Zebre. It's a better team than it was before, despite Wasps hamering, they did well for most of their games home against Glasgow and Scarlets
2) Champions Cup double-header with Wasps. Lam has to focus ANYONE in the squad for December, including Boshoff, Fox, McCartney, Healy, Buckley, Masterson, McCoy, Dawai, Cooney who should be re-integrated in a way they reach their "peak" in form for those two games
3) and only 3) trying to grab 7th place or (unlikely) 6th
I know this opinion will be in severe minority, but I really defend it without provocation

We qualified for the "Big European competition" to play it 110%, not to think about qualifying for the next one, and so on. French clubs do that. Silly

Zzippy

connemara man

After the beginning of the season a lot of fans could be in shock and worrying about the season. but Listening to the craggy island podcast they were saying were only down 5 points on the results last year. Were still in a good position and with a game in hand against Zebre of all teams.

its_phil

connachta wrote: »

all is said

goals :

1) Champions Cup NOW, trying to be better than we were 3 weeks ago against Zebre. It's a better team than it was before, despite Wasps hamering, they did well for most of their games home against Glasgow and Scarlets
2) Champions Cup double-header with Wasps. Lam has to focus ANYONE in the squad for December, including Boshoff, Fox, McCartney, Healy, Buckley, Masterson, McCoy, Dawai, Cooney who should be re-integrated in a way they reach their "peak" in form for those two games
3) and only 3) trying to grab 7th place or (unlikely) 6th
I know this opinion will be in severe minority, but I really defend it without provocation

We qualified for the "Big European competition" to play it 110%, not to think about qualifying for the next one, and so on. French clubs do that. Silly

WTF. How is sixth unlikely after 5 games?

Please don't explain or I might throw my laptop out the window.

CatFromHue

Yeah Connacht should be aiming for a top 6 finish, a top 4 finish would be amazing, but top 6 should be the goal.

11 wins is usually the lowest to get 6th but can be as high as 13.

With the following still to play
2X Zebre
2x Treviso
2x Dragons
1x Edinburgh

plus the 2 won already that could put them on 9 wins.

Then if you want a top 6 finish picking up another 2 or 3 wins against the other teams is what's needed, and is do able too.

connachta

CatFromHue wrote: »

Yeah Connacht should be aiming for a top 6 finish, a top 4 finish would be amazing, but top 6 should be the goal.

11 wins is usually the lowest to get 6th but can be as high as 13.

With the following still to play
2X Zebre
2x Treviso
2x Dragons
1x Edinburgh

plus the 2 won already that could put them on 9 wins.

Then if you want a top 6 finish picking up another 2 or 3 wins against the other teams is what's needed, and is do able too.

Now it's phil can throw his laptop; good analysis why Top6 is the only reasonable aim, not top 4. And still unlikely, I think, we have to be 100% against weaker teams (winning in Rodney Parade is never a sure bet) + 3 wins against who?
Anyway I am allowed to prefer focusing ChampionsCup as we made a good start. My personal choice

Evil_g

In the past few pages we've had:

Connacht are "looking good for qualification" from Champions Cup game after one home win where we conceded a losing bonus to our French opponents.

and

Top six in the league is "unlikely", after 5 games, even though if we win our game in hand against Zebre, we're seventh.

Outstanding work lads.

b.gud

Anyway.....

Lam is hopeful that Tiernan will be fit for Leinster and his son Mitch came over as a favour as they were looking light on 10s with Craig injured and Marnitz not available until after the Currie cup. Source

connemara man

b.gud wrote: »

Anyway.....

Lam is hopeful that Tiernan will be fit for Leinster and his son Mitch came over as a favour as they were looking light on 10s with Craig injured and Marnitz not available until after the Currie cup. Source

Saw Mitch for the first time in game for the eagles, fairly decent with ball in hand his kicking wasn't the best ( that's more a technique thing though seemed to just be lashing at the ball) but definitely a good player.

Adbrowne

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If your going to rest players I'd rest them against Leinster but not Zebre for a lot of reasons but mostly my own bias.

Looking at the injury list, and with Bealham, Dillane, Marmion and possibly Niyi & Roux away with Ireland Connacht will be down nearly as many players as Leinster will be.

connachta

Evil_g wrote: »

In the past few pages we've had:

Connacht are "looking good for qualification" from Champions Cup game after one home win where we conceded a losing bonus to our French opponents.

and

Top six in the league is "unlikely", after 5 games, even though if we win our game in hand against Zebre, we're seventh.

Outstanding work lads.

yeah my prediction is we have more chance for the 1st one than the 2nd one. I admit it's a prediction

connachta

Adbrowne wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

If your going to rest players I'd rest them against Leinster but not Zebre for a lot of reasons but mostly my own bias.

Looking at the injury list, and with Bealham, Dillane, Marmion and possibly Niyi & Roux away with Ireland Connacht will be down nearly as many players as Leinster will be.

yaeh big worry for a long time now

irishgrover

I don't think that it is a simple binary decision with regards to what's more important; Europe Vs Pro12.
Europe should is more important on a season by season basis, but that assumes a bare minimum standard of qualifying for it each year, which requires us to get into and consistently stay in the top half of the table..

Evil_g

connachta wrote: »

yeah my prediction is we have more chance for the 1st one than the 2nd one. I admit it's a prediction

It's not really a prediction though. A prediction will eventually be proved correct or incorrect. You've given a vague assessment of the relative probability of two events, both of which may occur :P

This time last year you were advocating Bradley era targeting of games too.

Thankfully Pat will continue to do what he's always done (with the possible exception of away Challenge cup group stages), pick the strongest team available and go to win every game.

That's my prediction.

former total

Jaysus lads, it's a bit early to be prioritising one tournament over another.

Two more games, one of which is against Zebre, then a nice break for the internationals. Be grand.

Bazzo

connachta wrote: »

Now it's phil can throw his laptop; good analysis why Top6 is the only reasonable aim, not top 4. And still unlikely, I think, we have to be 100% against weaker teams (winning in Rodney Parade is never a sure bet) + 3 wins against who?
Anyway I am allowed to prefer focusing ChampionsCup as we made a good start. My personal choice

Zebre x2
Treviso x2
Cardiff x2
Dragons x2
Scarlets H
Edinburgh A

Are all winnable games IMO. We should also be aiming to win our remaining 2 home inter pros, We've nothing to fear from Leinster or Munster in the sportsground the last few years. We did the double on Ospreys last year so there's no reason we couldn't beat them away again either.

The league is our bread & butter, writing it off 5 games in to the season when we're 2/5 with a win against Ulster for the first time in 4 years and losses against Glasgow and Ospreys at home and Scarlets away is utterly mental.

connachta

Bazzo wrote: »

connachta wrote: »

Now it's phil can throw his laptop; good analysis why Top6 is the only reasonable aim, not top 4. And still unlikely, I think, we have to be 100% against weaker teams (winning in Rodney Parade is never a sure bet) + 3 wins against who?
Anyway I am allowed to prefer focusing ChampionsCup as we made a good start. My personal choice

Zebre x2
Treviso x2
Cardiff x2
Dragons x2
Scarlets H
Edinburgh A

Cardiff away? Let me laugh. Ref never let us win there. They are better this season too
Vague prediction as you said :
1) Connacht likely fighting for 7th, maybe 6th
2) If Wasps win in Toulouse, and we win Zebre away + Wasps home , I think we're through QF

Evil_g

connachta wrote: »

2) If Wasps win in Toulouse, and we win Zebre away + Wasps home , I think we're through QF

That's not a prediction!

You've basically said that if Toulouse have nothing to play for in the last game and if Connacht can qualify by getting a result, Connacht will probably beat Toulouse.

connachta

Evil_g wrote: »

connachta wrote: »

2) If Wasps win in Toulouse, and we win Zebre away + Wasps home , I think we're through QF

That's not a prediction!

You've basically said that if Toulouse have nothing to play for in the last game and if Connacht can qualify by getting a result, Connacht will probably beat Toulouse.

That's exactly that!

Evil_g

If Ireland are leading by 8 points in the 79th minute they'll probably beat New Zealand.

Redo91

Evil_g wrote: »

If Ireland are leading by 8 points in the 79th minute they'll probably beat New Zealand.

We still probably wouldn't to be fair!

former total

connachta wrote: »

Cardiff away? Let me laugh. Ref never let us win there.

I had honestly hoped that, with the vast improvements in Connacht's play, this sort of thing was consigned to history.

b.gud

former total wrote: »

I had honestly hoped that, with the vast improvements in Connacht's play, this sort of thing was consigned to history.

It is for the vast, vast majority of people

connemara man

connachta wrote: »

Cardiff away? Let me laugh. Ref never let us win there. They are better this season too
Vague prediction as you said :
1) Connacht likely fighting for 7th, maybe 6th
2) If Wasps win in Toulouse, and we win Zebre away + Wasps home , I think we're through QF

I was typing the mother of all rants against this bit there really isn't a point.

Refs against Connacht is so ridiculous at this stage if you believe it please go to the conspiracy theory thread.

If Connacht from this point replicate last year's results were 3rd in the table a slow start doesn't make a season.

If my aunt has balls she'd be my uncle

*This is the towned down version

Zzippy

connachta wrote: »

Now it's phil can throw his laptop; good analysis why Top6 is the only reasonable aim, not top 4. And still unlikely, I think, we have to be 100% against weaker teams (winning in Rodney Parade is never a sure bet) + 3 wins against who?
Anyway I am allowed to prefer focusing ChampionsCup as we made a good start. My personal choice

You said top 6 was unlikely, now you're saying it's reasonable. Flip flopping like Donald Trump...

connachta

Zzippy wrote: »

connachta wrote: »

Now it's phil can throw his laptop; good analysis why Top6 is the only reasonable aim, not top 4. And still unlikely, I think, we have to be 100% against weaker teams (winning in Rodney Parade is never a sure bet) + 3 wins against who?
Anyway I am allowed to prefer focusing ChampionsCup as we made a good start. My personal choice

You said top 6 was unlikely, now you're saying it's reasonable. Flip flopping like Donald Trump...

No I'm still saying unlikely, fighting for qualification (7th or unlikely 6th) is possible. Not my priority.
Ref aren't against Connacht, except in Cardiff

BrokenMan

connachta wrote: »

No I'm still saying unlikely, fighting for qualification (7th or unlikely 6th) is possible. Not my priority.
Ref aren't against Connacht, except in Cardiff

So no matter who the ref is, if its a match in Cardiff then they are against Connacht?