Connacht Rugby Thread - Part III - The Violence of the Lams

connachta

agree b.bug, it's called the obliquity theory, aiming a goal to reach another one. But I still think 57 points will be enough I don't buy the 60 points theory

freyners

A gif of bundee going spare after the knock on could be useful wp_rathead

wp_rathead

freyners wrote: »

A gif of bundee going spare after the knock on could be useful wp_rathead

I'll add it to the to-do list when I finish work this evening
Along with Denis reverse pass and a SBW style Muldowney offload

I'm starting to think it's cheating having Denis during international window - not fair on other teams front rows. He did a similar demolition job against Glasgow during RWC

connemara man

wp_rathead wrote: »

I'll add it to the to-do list when I finish work this evening
Along with Denis reverse pass and a SBW style Muldowney offload

I'm starting to think it's cheating having Denis during international window - not fair on other teams front rows. He did a similar demolition job against Glasgow during RWC

Ah its not cheating its disbelief. What we're allowed to play him? I thought the internationals were all gone? But he's worth seven points by just being on the pitch. You sure? OK... Woo hoo

Zzippy

Denis was outstanding yesterday alright, seeing his opposite number subbed off before halftime showed just how good he was, but credit to Finlay Bealham too, he's turning into a very good prop who can cover both sides very well. It was his man who picked up the yellow card for scrum infringements, so he was under severe pressure too.

Bazzo

Zzippy wrote: »

Denis was outstanding yesterday alright, seeing his opposite number subbed off before halftime showed just how good he was, but credit to Finlay Bealham too, he's turning into a very good prop who can cover both sides very well. It was his man who picked up the yellow card for scrum infringements, so he was under severe pressure too.

The whole front row were outstanding yesterday. Bealham really has come a long way last season & this season. Fair play to him.

Cosmo Kramer

MarinersBlues wrote: »

I'm just looking through the betting for the fixtures this weekend, and it could be a series of good results for Connacht:

Dragons v Leinster - Dragons are 2 pt favourites - A Dragons win would be great for us.
Zebre v Munster - Munster are 8 pt favs - A Zebre win, while unlikely, not as unlikely as you would expect.
Connacht v Scarlets - Connacht 2-3pt favs - A Connacht win is good for Connacht, hopefully deny them the bonus.
Treviso v Ulster - Ulster 12 pt favs - I think I'll back Ulster here, that should be good for one Connacht fans wallet.
Cardiff v Edinburgh - Cardiff 1pt favs - A Cardiff win would be GREAT for Connacht.
Ospreys v Glasgow - Ospreys 1 pt favs - A draw would be savage. A low scoring game would be right up our street here.

Basically get Leinster, Edinbrugh and Scarlets bet, which is achievable, and we've had a good weekend. If any of the other long shots come off that would be super as well.

I'd have a go on the lottery this week if I was you.

Cosmo Kramer

Looking ahead to what's left in the Pro 12 the away games against Zebre, Treviso and probably the Dragons are must win games really.

Ulster away probably a no hoper - a LBP would be helpful.

The other games are Ospreys, Leinster, Munster and Glasgow at home and Edinburgh away. Would Connacht go in as favourites to any of those games? I think two wins from those five games might be needed to guarantee sixth, although it might be possible with one win and a lot of bonus points. Three wins from five would probably be needed for top four.

ClanofLams

Leinster (H) is the week after 6N concludes so Leinster will be down a good few players. Would imagine Connacht might be marginal favourites.

Anyway the most important thing is to try to win the next four games. That's not at all unfeasible and were it to happen, would almost guarantee a top 6 spot and allow the team to focus on advancing in the Challenge cup and trying to make league playoffs.

MarinersBlues

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Looking ahead to what's left in the Pro 12 the away games against Zebre, Treviso and probably the Dragons are must win games really.

Ulster away probably a no hoper - a LBP would be helpful.

The other games are Ospreys, Leinster, Munster and Glasgow at home and Edinburgh away. Would Connacht go in as favourites to any of those games? I think two wins from those five games might be needed to guarantee sixth, although it might be possible with one win and a lot of bonus points. Three wins from five would probably be needed for top four.

Connacht should be favs for Ospreys at home and Edinburgh away (both 6 nations) and won't be more than 3 or 4 pts outsiders against Munster or Leinster.

I think 6th is in the bag.
If we get results in the interpros top 4 is on.

Cosmo Kramer

ClanofLams wrote: »

Leinster (H) is the week after 6N concludes so Leinster will be down a good few players. Would imagine Connacht might be marginal favourites.

Anyway the most important thing is to try to win the next four games. That's not at all unfeasible and were it to happen, would almost guarantee a top 6 spot and allow the team to focus on advancing in the Challenge cup and trying to make league playoffs.

Even three wins from the next four would be excellent.

Billysays no

wp_rathead wrote: »

I'll add it to the to-do list when I finish work this evening
Along with Denis reverse pass and a SBW style Muldowney offload

I'm starting to think it's cheating having Denis during international window - not fair on other teams front rows. He did a similar demolition job against Glasgow during RWC

There I was gutted about Denis and toh not being called up to the international squad. On the reverse it would have opened huge gaps in the Connacht squad. So good for Connacht and in due course they will get their recognition. For this year our hopes hang on these two players based on lack of alternatives in their positions.

b.gud

wp_rathead wrote: »

I'll add it to the to-do list when I finish work this evening
Along with Denis reverse pass and a SBW style Muldowney offload

I'm starting to think it's cheating having Denis during international window - not fair on other teams front rows. He did a similar demolition job against Glasgow during RWC

Here's the offload curtosy of Murray Kinsella

Take a look at @Murray_Kinsella's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Murray_Kinsella/status/693874564988801024?s=09

wp_rathead

Full match here:

Bundee tackle is at 01:34:45
Couldn't find Buckley's reverse pass but I havn't watched full game back yet - it was in the second half is all I can remember

CatFromHue

nice offload but also a nice catch from Muldowney too

Zzippy

Robbie doesn't offload, eh...

https://twitter.com/Murray_Kinsella/status/693896572527087617

b.gud

https://twitter.com/Murray_Kinsella/status/693902972628135936?s=09

All these gifs can only mean one thing, a Murray Kinsella article on Connacht

Bundee approves

Utah_Saint

Great win Westies:D

Only just watched the highlights. Looking back to your best!!!

connemara man

b.gud wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Murray_Kinsella/status/693902972628135936?s=09

All these gifs can only mean one thing, a Murray Kinsella article on Connacht

Bundee approves

The whole team approved

https://twitter.com/Murray_Kinsella/status/693903038407385088?s=09

Billysays no

Zzippy wrote: »

Robbie doesn't offload, eh...

https://twitter.com/Murray_Kinsella/status/693896572527087617

Ok even henshaw is liable to offload eventually. It just takes a verrrry long time for him to do so!!!!! Perfect style of play for our Irish team. Read Jim glennons article in the paper today and tony wards two days previous. Tony figured if we see another Murray boxkick it will be well too soon. And Jim was wondering what was missing from the Irish team. Its simply mundane players with mundane styles. Sorry Joe, I've started already. If we have Kearney at full back and henshaw at centre I will slit my wrists rather than watch that fallacy. And strangely most editorials agree. Its going nowhere.

connachta

Which is interesting is the relative freshness of the squad
Buckley AhYou Dillane Heenan Connolly McCartney, even Bealham, all have a number of minutes played still very reasonable in the pack.

Overused players are Muldowney, Muldoon, Masterson Aki, TOH, and Healy (maybe Marmion)
And what is great is Connacht management has fresh cover for them, guys with enough gametime to make them ready to play (Naoupu, Ronaldson, Niyi, Parata, Blade, Porter, SOB 2.0). Add to that a second wawe soon to be back (McKeon, Browne, Marshall, Roux, Carr).

So I do think with targeted rotation we could finish the season without beeing out of depth, as we were last season.
I still believe Lam should have rotated more early December to win Ulster home and maybe Scarlets away (and this home game, which didn't look good after 45 min).
But past is past, now with this squad situation I advocate to make rotations in ones and twos and only for the 6/7 "overused players"

connachta

Which is interesting is the relative freshness of the squad
Buckley AhYou Dillane Heenan Connolly McCartney, even Bealham, all have a number of minutes played still very reasonable in the pack.

Overused players are Muldowney, Muldoon, Masterson Aki, TOH, and Healy (maybe Marmion)
And what is great is Connacht management has fresh cover for them, guys with enough gametime to make them ready to play (Naoupu, Ronaldson, Niyi, Parata, Blade, Porter, SOB 2.0). Add to that a second wawe soon to be back (McKeon, Browne, Marshall, Roux, Carr).

So I do think with targeted rotation we could finish the season without beeing out of depth, as we were last season.
I still believe Lam should have rotated more early December to win Ulster home and maybe Scarlets away (and this home game, which didn't look good after 45 min).
But past is past, now with this squad situation I advocate to make rotations in ones and twos and only for the 6/7 "overused players"

galwaylad14

Good result and performance on Saturday. The forwards were truly superb, absolutely minced the Scarlets pack.

Just looking at our fixtures and the next three games are just outrageously important. Playing two of the bottom teams away from home (Dragons and Zebre) and what will be a fairly weakend Ospreys side at home. Win these three and it would all but wrap up a top 6 spot and we could really focus then on making the play offs. Even two wins and two bonus points would leave us in decent shape but anything less and I think we'd be in serious trouble for the rest of the season and there's barely another game that we'd start as favourites for. I don't think we'll lose every game after that or anything like it but it would be seriously tough going into those games needing to get 4 or 5 wins out of them.

Huge few weeks coming now.

galwaylad14

Good result and performance on Saturday. The forwards were truly superb, absolutely minced the Scarlets pack.

Just looking at our fixtures and the next three games are just outrageously important. Playing two of the bottom teams away from home (Dragons and Zebre) and what will be a fairly weakend Ospreys side at home. Win these three and it would all but wrap up a top 6 spot and we could really focus then on making the play offs. Even two wins and two bonus points would leave us in decent shape but anything less and I think we'd be in serious trouble for the rest of the season and there's barely another game that we'd start as favourites for. I don't think we'll lose every game after that or anything like it but it would be seriously tough going into those games needing to get 4 or 5 wins out of them.

Huge few weeks coming now.

connachta

I kinda disagree for Dragons for example. I think lots of you tend to minor the "away influence". It cost us Cardiff and Scarlets games. And Dragons are all in all are less impacted by 6 nations than we are ; I'm convinced we have more chance to win the home game against plucked Leinster team

Bazzo

connachta wrote: »

I kinda disagree for Dragons for example. I think lots of you tend to minor the "away influence". It cost us Cardiff and Scarlets games. And Dragons are all in all are less impacted by 6 nations than we are ; I'm convinced we have more chance to win the home game against plucked Leinster team

It'll be a tough match because they always make it a bit of a dogfight over there. We are definitely capable of doing it though, we did it last year during the 6 nations window with a narrow 25-30 win.

connachta

Because of a red-card

S12b

Great to see Heenan back doing his stuff!!

http://www.rugby.net/s/rapge4wAowm


And a nice analysis piece from the42.ie

http://www.the42.ie/analysis-connacht-scarlets-maul-scrum-2578377-Feb2016/

Bazzo

connachta wrote: »

Because of a red-card

You could qualify nearly every win by any team that way but it would be a pointless exercise. We beat them away and we're definitely capable of doing it again.

Bazzo

S12b wrote: »

Great to see Heenan back doing his stuff!!

http://www.rugby.net/s/rapge4wAowm


And a nice analysis piece from the42.ie

http://www.the42.ie/analysis-connacht-scarlets-maul-scrum-2578377-Feb2016/

Hadn't noticed Bundee was involved in every maul

connachta

Sorry but a red card after 25 minutes is a game changer making any reference to last year irrelevant.

But don't get me wrong, we beat Dragons away two years ago too, of course it's possible. Just saying they are slowly improving, not impacted much by Welsh caps, so IMO it will be harder to beat them then Leinster home.

For me the 4 victories we need are likely to be Leinster Ospreys and Munster home (+Zebre), rather than Dragons, Embra and Treviso away. If some of those results are positive, good, they are "bonus", margin for top 6, and dream of top 4

connachta

Sorry but a red card after 25 minutes is a game changer making any reference to last year irrelevant.

But don't get me wrong, we beat Dragons away two years ago too, of course it's possible. Just saying they are slowly improving, not impacted much by Welsh caps, so IMO it will be harder to beat them then Leinster home.

For me the 4 victories we need are likely to be Leinster Ospreys and Munster home (+Zebre), rather than Dragons, Embra and Treviso away. If some of those results are positive, good, they are "bonus", margin for top 6, and dream of top 4

Borders no.2

Dragons is a tough away match. They've taken a few good scalps at home recently including Munster, Leinster, Sale, Castres. However, at Christmas they did also throw away a comfortable enough winning position at home to Cardiff. Anytime I see Rodney Parade the place looks grim, the atmosphere is intense and the pitch looks in diabolical condition. Thursday night with no TV coverage, this is the type of roll up your sleeves and get the job done at all costs win that would make the difference at the end of the season. Its also the type of game where 3 point opportunities can't be thrown away which is what worries me.

macslash

I know I asked before but will there defo be no tv coverage for the Dragons game? Any late scheduling?

An also just to add, Saturday was my first game this season..and my god what an atmosphere. The crowd really were fantastic, and the players showed how much it meant to them afterwards. The lads behind me were great trying to quieten the (loud) Scarlets fans!

macslash

I know I asked before but will there defo be no tv coverage for the Dragons game? Any late scheduling?

An also just to add, Saturday was my first game this season..and my god what an atmosphere. The crowd really were fantastic, and the players showed how much it meant to them afterwards. The lads behind me were great trying to quieten the (loud) Scarlets fans!

ClanofLams

Dragons won't be easy but it's one Connacht should really be winning, to get top 4/6 need to get some away results and that's one to target. Their form has picked up but they still lost to Cardiff at home over the Xmas period. There's also the not insignificant fact they have to visit Ulster Friday night and so have a sharp enough turnaround compared to Connacht who have a few days off now.

Borders no.2

macslash wrote: »

I know I asked before but will there defo be no tv coverage for the Dragons game? Any late scheduling?

According to the Pro 12 fixtures list unfortunately no coverage of this game which is a bit of a bummer. Doesn't look promising either with BBC Wales and S4C having their games pencilled in and TG4 taking the Munster game.

What makes it more frustrating is that every game in Rounds 15-17 are being covered by some TV station.

At least the Zebre and Edinburgh games in the weeks after are down to be covered by TG4 as well as the home game against Ospreys for anyone who can't make that.

The Lost Sheep

macslash wrote: »

I know I asked before but will there defo be no tv coverage for the Dragons game? Any late scheduling?

An also just to add, Saturday was my first game this season..and my god what an atmosphere. The crowd really were fantastic, and the players showed how much it meant to them afterwards. The lads behind me were great trying to quieten the (loud) Scarlets fans!

No. if it hasn't been announced at this time its very unlikely it will change at this stage

freyners

Think we can expect news on henshaw soon judging by how rob Murphy signed off the latest podcast.

irishgrover

freyners wrote:

Think we can expect news on henshaw soon judging by how rob Murphy signed off the latest podcast.

Can you elaborate? Have limited net access at the minute

Stan27

Luke out, toh in ????

Redo91

freyners wrote: »

Think we can expect news on henshaw soon judging by how rob Murphy signed off the latest podcast.

What did he say? Was it promising at all?

freyners

Just something along the lines of our next podcast will be post dragons came unless henshaw news comes out in the meantime. Sounded like he knew something was coming out to my ears

connemara man

freyners wrote: »

Just something along the lines of our next podcast will be post dragons came unless henshaw news comes out in the meantime. Sounded like he knew something was coming out to my ears

In the previous podcast they said they'd do a special if any news came out. So I wouldn't read too much into it.
6 nations time is when Connacht tend to announce contracts anyway so that would be the main tell.

Zzippy

Whatever about Henshaw, and I think he should be offered a central contract to stay here, it's vital to tie down a few more - Heenan being the most important. His contract is up in the summer and there will be clubs sniffing around - wouldn't be surprised if Ulster come looking, although they're more in need of a big no. 8 than a good 7.

ClanofLams

Zzippy wrote: »

Whatever about Henshaw, and I think he should be offered a central contract to stay here, it's vital to tie down a few more - Heenan being the most important. His contract is up in the summer and there will be clubs sniffing around - wouldn't be surprised if Ulster come looking, although they're more in need of a big no. 8 than a good 7.

Not sure where but I think read/heard an interview by Heenan where he said he wanted to get a few games under the belt and then sort out a new contract.

He doesn't seem the type to head after he has been unfortunately been unable to contribute as much as he could due to injury over the last couple of years. But totally agree, tying himself and Muldowney down to new contracts should be a priority.

irishgrover

Re: Henshaw
I'm very reluctant to say this, or even start the discussion again, however.....
I think he is probably on his way out.
The reason I say this is that it has been said a number of times before that he wanted everything done and dusted re contacts and moves by Christmas. If one assumes that this was that case, and he decided to stay in Connacht then why would it not have been announced. If a deal has been done, one way of the other, then the only reason I can think of to not announce it until now (or soon) is that he is leaving....
On the other side, my head is saying....why the hell would he go, it seems most probable that in a year or two the Aki will be an irish center.... you could make that argument that all other things being equal he is a better 12 than Henshaw.... so why would Henshaw break up that partnership? especially considering the upward trend of Connacht and the downward trend of Leinster....
who knows?...

irishgrover

. (double post)

connemara man

Technically speaking Connacht can come 6th in the league and still not qualify if the top 5 are 3 Irish and 2 of welsh or Scottish.. And with how the league is its a possibility

I shudder at the thought

ClanofLams

connemara man wrote: »

Technically speaking Connacht can come 6th in the league and still not qualify if the top 5 are 3 Irish and 2 of welsh or Scottish.. And with how the league is its a possibility

I shudder at the thought

Well each country has to be represented so for four Irish provinces it would need to be one Scottish team and one welsh team joining them in the top six.

Let's just finish top 4 and let others worry about all that though!