Connacht Rugby Thread - Part III - The Violence of the Lams

ClanofLams

connachta wrote: »

I was last season when I really thought we would be able to beat Glasgow and Ospreys home. we weren't. So allow me to be distrustful.
Maybe the team improved enough, maybe not

Given that it's a young side with an extra years experience who have equalled last season's point total with 7 games to go I think it is reasonable to say they have improved considerably. We are going around in circles so I will leave it at that.

connachta

ClanofLams wrote: »

I pretty much know them off by heart at this stage. I don't expect it to happen but it's more likely than falling out of the top6. You thought we would lose to Scarlets at home and Dragons away if I remember correctly?

That were very good surprises indeed, like Ospreys winning in Musgrave was a nightmare taking shape.
The two key moment for top 6 will be Connacht vs Ospreys and Dragons vs Ospreys

calico77

connachta wrote: »

Very very unlikely. Once again, it's not because it won't be magical, it's because of the respective fixtures of the 8 team in contention. Look at them carefully like I did every week.

Look at the inter pros left
Munster have 2 away Inter-Pros [Leinster and connacht]
Connacht have 2 home [Leinster and Munster] and 1 away [Ulster]
Leinster have 1 home [Munster] and 2 away [Ulster and Connacht]

Anything can happen there. Ulster, Leinster and Connacht wont win them all. So if Connacht win at least 1 of theirs as well as a few other games then playoffs are well within reach. If Munster lose to Leinster and Connacht they might not be able to catch Connacht and could miss out on ERCC


The welsh regions have games against one another including the day out in the Millenium.

connachta

calico77 wrote: »

The welsh regions have games against one another including the day out in the Millenium.

Oh Come on, I missed that and it's even worse.
Cardiff and Dragons are losing their home advantage against Scarlets and Ospreys:mad:

calico77

connachta wrote: »

Oh Come on, I missed that and it's even worse.
Cardiff and Dragons are losing their home advantage against Scarlets and Ospreys:mad:

the negativity is unreal.

connachta

you want even worse?
http://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/35625792
Webb to play next week.

thomond2006

connachta wrote: »

Next week-end is crucial

lose and we're out of top 6, my opinion
win and we can focus on the top 4

How can the first of seven remaining games decide that?! Connacht are 12 points clear of 6th, it would take an incredible collapse for a team that is 10-5 to finish lower than 6th.

connachta

thomond2006 wrote: »

How can the first of seven remaining games decide that?!

Because of that.

connachta wrote: »

I just think we'll face the best team in the worse moment

1) Ulster, Ravenhill, with their international players
2) Same for Glasgow, "A" team back to its best in the last two games, even without half of their players
3) Treviso AWAY, improving and maybe playing for a Champions Cup spot on their LAST HOME game against us
4) Edinburgh, never far from winning recently, I think they'll do so in Murrayfield
5) Leinster with Healy back, mick Kearney back, Jack Conan.. Always dangerous
6) Munster, with all their international guys back, fighting for their last chance top 4 coming in the Sportsground
7) Ospreys "A", improved on the last two games led by Sam Davies. But at the Sportsground we HAVE TO do the job

Munster badly hurt us by losing to Spreys
I can't wait to have Henshaw Dillane and Roux back, they could be decisive.

calico77

connachta wrote: »

Because of that.

Munster badly hurt us by losing to Spreys
I can't wait to have Henshaw Dillane and Roux back, they could be decisive.

Ospreys next two games are away to connacht and Leinster. They lost at home to both earlier in the season. Ospreys could lose them both. Its very realistic possibility

former total

It would take a collapse of biblical proportions for Connacht to finish outside the top six.

Even if Connacht lose a few, there are so many games between the other contenders that everyone is going to drop points.

I don't believe that anyone seriously thinks it's going to happen.

connachta

calico77 wrote: »

Ospreys next two games are away to connacht and Leinster. They lost at home to both earlier in the season. Ospreys could lose them both. Its very realistic possibility

They'll target the Connacht one..

calico77

connachta wrote: »

They'll target the Connacht one..

and connacht are good enough to win. Good enough to get a TBP win too.

connachta

former total wrote: »

It would take a collapse of biblical proportions for Connacht to finish outside the top six.

Even if Connacht lose a few, there are so many games between the other contenders that everyone is going to drop points.

I don't believe that anyone seriously thinks it's going to happen.

I think it won't if we keep the momentum by not losing at home next week.

thomond2006

Connacht will get 5 points in Treviso. They are terrible and Connacht play a brand of rugby that will rip them apart. Of the four home games, I think Connacht will win at least 2. A losing bonus is possible in Edinburgh. Looking at the fixtures overall 15-16 points should be the least Connacht earn.

connachta

calico77 wrote: »

and connacht are good enough to win. Good enough to get a TBP win too.

Whatever kind of win, it will be sooooooo relieving.

calico77

thomond2006 wrote: »

Connacht will get 5 points in Treviso. They're terrible. Of the four home games, I think Connacht will win at least 2. A losing bonus is possible in Edinburgh.

connacht are more then capable of winning in edinburgh.

connachta

thomond2006 wrote: »

Connacht will get 5 points in Treviso. They're terrible..

They won against Dragons without Italian international guys. It would be tricky to go there when they could be playing for Eurpean qualification too.

connachta

calico77 wrote: »

connacht are more then capable of winning in edinburgh.

That's the one behind Ulster that I find the most unlikely to happen. Embra was unlucky this season but a serious team in the building.

thomond2006

connachta wrote: »

They won against Dragons without Italian international guys. It would be tricky to go there when they could be playing for Eurpean qualification too.

The Dragons are right beside them in the table and are 27 points behind Connacht. It's irrelevant. Also, how many internationals do Treviso actually have in the current Italy team?

To put a positive spin on this season so far :eek:
Let's take a look at the Pro12 matches Connacht have lost this year: Glasgow (A), Cardiff (A), Ulster (H), Leinster (A), Scarlets (A). Of those five losses, I'd only class Cardiff away and Ulster at home (both in December) as disappointing results and IIRC around that time Connacht had a ridiculous injury list. It's worth pointing out that Connacht picked up a losing bonus in four of those five losses.

Can you see why other posters aren't buying this negativity?

CatFromHue

former total wrote: »

It would take a collapse of biblical proportions for Connacht to finish outside the top six.

Even if Connacht lose a few, there are so many games between the other contenders that everyone is going to drop points.

I don't believe that anyone seriously thinks it's going to happen.

It's been around 54-57 points usually to finish 6th.

It'll prob be a big higher this season as there's a bigger divide between top and bottom, I believe Paul Murphy will be having a march about this soon :pac:, but 60 points would do it I'd say. Conn are on 50 now.

Their run in is mostly against top 6 teams and an away game to Treviso but I can't see them not getting at least 2 wins and a few bps.

freyners

Highlights are up on YT. Looking at Niyis last try my word did we make hard work only it. Twice we passed the wrong way aj initially with blade free inside and robb had danie on his left but passed back infield

connachta

thomond2006 wrote: »

The Dragons are right beside them in the table and are 27 points behind Connacht. It's irrelevant. Also, how many internationals do Treviso actually have in the current Italy team?

To put a positive spin on this season so far :eek:
Let's take a look at the Pro12 matches Connacht have lost this year: Glasgow (A), Cardiff (A), Ulster (H), Leinster (A), Scarlets (A). Of those five losses, I'd only class Cardiff away and Ulster at home (both in December) as disappointing results and IIRC around that time Connacht had a ridiculous injury list. It's worth pointing out that Connacht picked up a losing bonus in four of those five losses.

Can you see why other posters aren't buying this negativity?

I don't say there are no reason to be confident. I say all of you underestimate a real risk. Top 6 will require a total very close to top 4. So what I'm trying to say is : it's not because we have a reasonable chance of top 4 that we haven't also a reasonable chance to be 7th

57pts we could be out
62 we could be top 4

Only positivity of the week-end with Glasgow BP and Scarlets win, is the "top 6 is not enough to qualify" scenario is fading away

Utopia Parkway

CatFromHue wrote: »

It's been around 54-57 points usually to finish 6th.

It'll prob be a big higher this season as there's a bigger divide between top and bottom, I believe Paul Murphy will be having a march about this soon :pac:, but 60 points would do it I'd say. Conn are on 50 now.

Their run in is mostly against top 6 teams and an away game to Treviso but I can't see them not getting at least 2 wins and a few bps.

Just 2 wins from the remaining games might well be enough for Connacht to get top 6. And obviously they might pick up the odd BP as you say.

Would prefer to get them asap though rather than it going down to the wire.

CatFromHue

Away to Treviso and away to Edinburgh would be the two must win games.

Bazzo

CatFromHue wrote: »

Away to Treviso and away to Edinburgh would be the two must win games.

Beating Edinburgh away is a bigger ask than probably any of the remaining home games except maybe Glasgow.

connachta

CatFromHue wrote: »

Away to Treviso and away to Edinburgh would be the two must win games.

Next week is the must win game. It is the 8-point game

NiallBoo

Honestly, the way that Connacht have been racking up TBPs and LBPs they're going to hit 60 points, even if they only won one more game this season.

wp_rathead

just saw the highlights there - jesus you could hear Masterson scream at the Zebre try the poor lad

vienne86

wp_rathead wrote: »

just saw the highlights there - jesus you could hear Masterson scream at the Zebre try the poor lad

Any news of hiim?

b.gud

vienne86 wrote: »

Any news of hiim?

There'll be an injury update on Tuesday

connachta

Webb/Davies will be a nightmare. We should handle the others

calico77

connachta wrote: »

Webb/Davies will be a nightmare. We should handle the others

only a nightmare if they are allowed to be

connachta

calico77 wrote: »

only a nightmare if they are allowed to be

Targetting like Sexton?:D

Zzippy

connachta wrote: »

Webb/Davies will be a nightmare. We should handle the others

Seriously, are you this negative in real life? You must be a nightmare to live with. What kind of fan expects his team to collapse and lose to the likes of Treviso after the rugby they've played this season? Get a grip and stop being so negative.

Former Coach

Zzippy wrote: »

Seriously, are you this negative in real life? You must be a nightmare to live with. What kind of fan expects his team to collapse and lose to the likes of Treviso after the rugby they've played this season? Get a grip and stop being so negative.

Go zzippy;)

connachta

Zzippy wrote: »

Seriously, are you this negative in real life? You must be a nightmare to live with. What kind of fan expects his team to collapse and lose to the likes of Treviso after the rugby they've played this season? Get a grip and stop being so negative.

oh come on Zippy, you know i'm not an agitator on this forum. Yes I'm saying things some don't want to hear. Yes we can lose in Treviso if they purchase a Hcup ticket. But please don't tell I'm not a good fan, because everyone here can feel how pasionate I am

former total

I think Connacht will cruise the top six.

If they somehow miss out on Europe, then they don't deserve to be there anyway.

connachta

former total wrote: »

I think Connacht will cruise the top six.

If they somehow miss out on Europe, then they don't deserve to be there anyway.

Saracens Connacht once again? Can't wait for it

Zzippy

connachta wrote: »

oh come on Zippy, you know i'm not an agitator on this forum. Yes I'm saying things some don't want to hear. Yes we can lose in Treviso if they purchase a Hcup ticket. But please don't tell I'm not a good fan, because everyone here can feel how pasionate I am

All I'm saying is have some bloody faith in your team. Every fan can see how well we're playing this year, the results we've gotten (Ospreys away, Munster away especially). Our home record is excellent.Ulster are the only team to win at the SG this season. We have 4 away wins, and apart from the Leinster game the ones we lost (Glasgow, Cardiff, Scarlets) were all narrow defeats where we could easily have won. We have the most points scored, the most tries scored, the most try bonuses, 4 losing bonus points from 5 defeats. How can you follow that team and be so negative about our chances? It beggars belief, unless you're the most pessimistic person in the world.

Former Coach

connachta wrote: »

Saracens Connacht once again? Can't wait for it

We are TWELVE points ahead of the teams outside the top 4. I'm 100% sure Pat and the squad are talking in terms of winning the league AND the Challenge Cup. Let's get behind the drive for the DOUBLE👍

connachta

Zzippy wrote: »

All I'm saying is have some bloody faith in your team. Every fan can see how well we're playing this year, the results we've gotten (Ospreys away, Munster away especially). Our home record is excellent.Ulster are the only team to win at the SG this season. We have 4 away wins, and apart from the Leinster game the ones we lost (Glasgow, Cardiff, Scarlets) were all narrow defeats where we could easily have won. We have the most points scored, the most tries scored, the most try bonuses, 4 losing bonus points from 5 defeats. How can you follow that team and be so negative about our chances? It beggars belief, unless you're the most pessimistic person in the world.

That's a great way to be optimistic when we read you zzippy. I just remember ulster+Glasgow+ Ospreys came to win in the sportsground, at the same period, whereas we were nearly unbeaten home too. But I want you to be right, I deeply hope it will be ok

Zzippy

Former Coach wrote: »

We are TWELVE points ahead of the teams outside the top 4. I'm 100% sure Pat and the squad are talking in terms of winning the league AND the Challenge Cup. Let's get behind the drive for the DOUBLE👍

This, a million time this!

b.gud

sh!t

https://twitter.com/gavinmortimer7/status/701675432626823168

connachta

Our 3 best players seems to be out

Enlist Sheriff/D.O'Shea for Muldowney
Dardis for Henshaw
and Ali Birsh for Heenan

problem solved, but there's an emergency

galwaylad14

Connacht need to win 2 more matches to guarantee top 6, plus a bonus point or two I suppose which we have been picking up loads of this season. We have 7 matches left, 4 at home and 1 of the away ones is against the worst team in the league.

If we can't manage to win 2 out of those 7 then we absolutely don't deserve to be in the Champions Cup and would have no business being in it.

We probably need to win 3 out of the last 7 (again along with bonuses) to get a top 4 spot. This will also be acheived easily enough I feel.

Connacht have played superb rugby this season, confidence is sky high and we fear absolutely no one, especially at home. There's no reason that this team won't finish in the top 4 and from there anything is possible.

calico77

galwaylad14 wrote: »

Connacht need to win 2 more matches to guarantee top 6, plus a bonus point or two I suppose which we have been picking up loads of this season. We have 7 matches left, 4 at home and 1 of the away ones is against the worst team in the league.

If we can't manage to win 2 out of those 7 then we absolutely don't deserve to be in the Champions Cup and would have no business being in it.

We probably need to win 3 out of the last 7 (again along with bonuses) to get a top 4 spot. This will also be acheived easily enough I feel.

Connacht have played superb rugby this season, confidence is sky high and we fear absolutely no one, especially at home. There's no reason that this team won't finish in the top 4 and from there anything is possible.

It all depends on who you beat. Win a home to ospreys and a home Inter-Pro (munster), and two other games are winnable too, edinburgh and treviso for example.

sfbdqc

So Muldowney leaving for Grenoble.

ClanofLams

Hopes are high Jake Heenan (hip) and Craig Ronaldson (knee) will be fit for Ospreys according to Linley Mackenzie in the Irish Times.

typhoony

ClanofLams wrote: »

Hopes are high Jake Heenan (hip) and Craig Ronaldson (knee) will be fit for Ospreys according to Linley Mackenzie in the Irish Times.

that would be a massive boost for us, thoughts also with Eoghan Masterson and hoping that his injury is niot as bad as it looked on TV

ThisRegard

typhoony wrote: »

tEoghan Masterson and hoping that his injury is niot as bad as it looked on TV

I asked this the other night, but it looked like a compound fracture to me, what I thought looked like his bone was protruding from his leg. If it was, he won't be coming back any time soon.