SIXTH ANNUAL BOARDS WINTER FORECAST CONTEST

M.T. Cranium

WELCOME to the Sixth Annual Winter Forecast Contest. The rules will be similar to past years, except that the prize may be even more fabulous.

The deadline will give you a chance to peer into the first week of December with some idea what's going on as the season starts. In weather circles, winter is December, January and February, and that will be the basis of our contest. Read the rules carefully and feel free to enter any time before the deadline ...

Entries accepted until 0300h Wednesday 2 December with a possible extension of no more than 48h depending on number of entries and how I assess the fairness of that extension. For sure, any entries by or after 5 Dec will not count for the contest.

The top scores in past years were close to 75/100 to give you some idea of what the standard is. Here are the rules, look at the end of this post for a template that you can use to enter. I will make an effort to review all entries and contact anyone who has an incomplete entry. It's up to you to be familiar with the rules in each question.

(1) For each month Dec Jan Feb, predict the "IMT" which is the Irish Mean Temperature, a statistic developed on this forum by Deep Easterly, and the average of five stations in central inland locations (Shannon, Oak Park, Mullingar, Casement, Claremorris). For newbies, this is the average of daily highs and lows. Over recent 30-year periods, the means have been around 5.6 in Dec, 5.3 in Jan and 5.2 in Feb. Very mild months would run around 8-9 C and very cold ones a little below freezing (Dec 2010 was -0.4). These forecasts generate 5 points each, and the seasonal average, which you don't need to calculate (I do that from your entries) counts for 15 points.

(2) For each month Dec Jan Feb, predict the monthly precipitation as a percentage of normal values. This is calculated as in our monthly forecast contest, from records taken at eleven stations that report in the Met Eireann Monthly Summary. Those are the five mentioned above plus Valentia, Cork, Johnstown Castle, Belmullet, Ballyhaise and Malin Head. Note that Dublin is not included. Values under 50% are considered exceptionally dry and above 200% exceptionally wet (for your guidance). The scoring for these three forecasts and the seasonal average which again you don't need to enter, will also be 5,5,5 and 15 points.

(3) For all the reporting stations of Met Eireann, as reported in their Monthly Summary, predict the seasonal highest and lowest temperatures. This will apply only to dates from 1 Dec to 29 Feb for the max, but can apply to dates both before and after the winter for the min (up to 15 April when the contest results are declared). The max in the past three winters has been close to 15 and the min during the first contest was about -16 but then more like -6 in the second contest, -8 winter of 2012-13, and similar values the past two winters. I would guess the long-term average for the winter minimum is around -8 to perhaps -10. These two predictions are worth ten points each.

(4) Predict the seasonal snowfall (in cms) at Casement. This will run from the first measurable snowfall (which has not happened yet, but your forecast should include anything already reported if it does snow in November, check this thread and elsewhere for updates on that) to 15 April (anything after that won't count as the contest is over on 15 April). These daily snowfall values (if they occur) are measured at hourly intervals and summed, which means the snow depth at any point might not be quite as much as the snowfall amount. However, amounts vary a lot from season to season. In the first contest winter 2010-11, there was about 50 or 60 cms but then we used a stat from Boards member "Danno" in Laois who had about 30 cms. In 2011-12, I believe there was almost zero accumulation and our lowest contest guess had the highest score. This was similar to the past three winters when most of the field guessed higher than what actually fell at Casement (something like 7 cm in 2012-13 and 3 cm in 2013-14 and 2 cm in 2014-15). This part is worth ten points.

(5) Finally, predict the highest wind gust in knots at any reporting station in Ireland as per the Met Eireann Monthly Summary, but note that in this case, the period is only the three winter months -- strong winds in November or March or early April won't count, the gust has to be between 1 Dec and 29 Feb. Knots are almost double km/hr and about 1.15 times mph. Values between 70 and 100 knots are most likely to verify from climatology, the extreme range would be about 50 to 120 for this statistic. This part is also worth ten points.

Note: All scores are based on rank order, not absolute differences from prediction to actual values. This equalizes the various sections of the contest and distributes the scores evenly. Once we establish the number of entries, I will update this scoring system, but basically, 10% of the entries get top scores in each category and then on down, with any odd numbers left over getting the zero scores. Where it's 10 points, the gradations are 10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,0 and where 5 points, half of those values, where 15 we will give equal numbers of scores, and let you know later how many will share each score (based on number of entries).

Okay then, here's the template, once you understand what to predict, just change all the letters here to number values and block copy, submit along with your comments etc. We're open for entries although you'd be smart to wait until near the end of November or the first of December. You can edit your post without notifying me at any time up to whenever you see the entries cut off announced and a table appearing in the thread. I don't work on that until the cut off, so edit at will, I won't know except for the forum software making a note of it.

TEMPLATE FOR ENTRIES

DEC-IMT
JAN-IMT
FEB-IMT

DEC-PRC
JAN-PRC
FEB-PRC

MAX TEMP C

MIN TEMP C

SNOW cms

GUST kts

(all temps can have one decimal place, prc % to nearest whole number, snow can also have one decimal place, gust to nearest whole number)

Good luck and check back, also, if you are new to our contests, check out the December monthly contest when it's announced in the last few days of this month. We do those every month.

(Use this template if at all possible)

0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ 100 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.0 _ -10.0 __ 00.0 ___ 00

This will be my entry unless I decide to edit it before the deadline:

5.9 _ 5.0 _ 3.7 ___ 110 _ 130 _ 070 ____ 15.5 _ -8.8 _ 12.5 (cm) __ 97 (kts)

Note -- I will take the consensus values of the entries, and report on that in the winter 2015-16 thread as the "Boards consensus forecast" so be a part of that.

pauldry

6.6_ 4.5 _ 2.3 ___ 112 _ 95 _ 57____ 15.1 _ -10.3 _ 24(cm) __ 87 (kts)

Bsal

5.4_ 5.0 _ 4.2 ___ 125 _ 110 _ 91____ 14.6 _ -7.0 _ 15(cm) __ 83 (kts)

cdev

6.2 _ 4.2 _ 3.6 ___ 109 _ 122 _ 082 ____ 14.2 _ -9.1 _ 14.5 (cm) __ 101 (kts)

Strasser

6.8 _ 6.4 _ 6.6 ___ 112 _ 104 _ 95 ___ 13.4 _ -7.8 __ 5.0 ___ 87

omicron

omicron___6.7 _ 6.3 _ 6.2 ___ 110 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 14.5 _ -5.5 __ 05.0 ___ 75

force eleven

6.5 _ 4.7 _ 5.6 ___ 130_ 100 _ 110 ___ 15.8 _ -8.3 __ 4cm ___ 82 kts

DOCARCH

5.2 _ 4.7 _ 5.1 ___ 110 _ 90 _ 105 ____ 16.2 _ -6.8 _ 18.5 (cm) __ 87 (kts)

sunflower3

Sunflower 3.....6.0 _ 4.5 _ 3.8 ___ 110 _ 95 _ 85 ____ 14.9 _ -6.0 _ 10.5 (cm) __ 90 (kts)

Jpmarn

Jpmarn. 4.8 _ 4.6_ 5.5 ___ 140 _ 79 _ 95____ 15.5_ -9.5_ 15 (cm) __ 91 (kts)

mrskinner

Skinner....6.4,,,,5.3,,,,4.2,,,,,,100,,,95,,,105,,,,,15,,,-8,,,,8cm,,,,84kt

Rikand

Rikand ____ 7.0 _ 5.0 _ 4.0 ___ 120 _ 100 _ 90 ___ 16.5 _ -8.0 __ 15.0 ___ 85

John mac

john mac --6.3 _ 5.8 _ 4.7 ___ 120 _ 105 _ 98 ____ 16.2 _ -6.8 _ 6.5 (cm) __ 70 (kts)

forgot again ....

snowstreams

5.6 _ 4.8_ 4.3 ___ 120 _ 90 _ 085 ___ 15.2 _ -6.5 _ 6 (cm) __ 82 (kts)

M.T. Cranium

LATE BREAKING -- CONTEST WILL CLOSE TONIGHT AT 0300h

Entries received before that extended deadline will not be penalized, we will all play from the same total score potential. One minor tweak to that, if MAX holds at what I observed on 1st Dec then

(.a.) entries made after this notice will be penalized four ranking positions if they give that value or within 0.2, and it verifies for the season; if it does not verify, then this rule is waived.

(.b.) entries that are edited after this notice to change MAX to the reported value or that make any increase will be treated the same way as above. Previous entries who decide to edit down to that MAX will receive a 2 rank penalty if it verifies and otherwise no penalty.

I have noted the screen copy of entries made previous to this post.

So last chance to enter now to 0300h ... good luck to all.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts -- winter 2015-16

Forecasts are listed in order of predicted mean winter temperature (IMT)

FORECASTER ______ IMT(D,J,F) _ mean __ PRC(D,J,F) _ mean __ MAX _ MIN _ SNOW _ WIND

Strasser _________6.8_6.4_6.6__6.60 __ 112_104_095__103.7 _ 13.4_--7.8 __ 5.0 __ 87
omicron _________6.7_6.3_6.2__6.40 __ 110_110_095__105.0 _ 15.6_--5.5 __ 5.0 __ 75
Rameire _________6.1_6.3_6.1__6.17 __ 089_103_085___92.6 _ 15.6_ -6.1 __ 8.5 __ 92
force eleven ______6.5_4.7_5.6__5.60 __ 130_100_110__113.3 _ 15.8_--8.3 __ 4.0 __ 82
John mac ________6.3_5.8_4.7__5.60 __ 120_105_098__107.7 _ 16.2_--6.8 __ 6.5 __ 70
Rikand __________7.0_5.0_4.0__5.33 __ 120_100_090__103.3 _ 16.5_--8.0 _ 15.0 __ 85
Schadenfreudia ___6.7_5.1_4.0__5.27 __ 110_110_075___98.3 _ 15.5_--10.1 _17.5 _ 101
MrSkinner _______ 6.4_5.3_4.2__5.30 __ 100_095_105__100.0 _ 15.0_--8.0 __ 8.0 __ 84

Con Sensus ______6.2_5.0_4.5__5.23 __ 111_102_091__101.3 _ 15.5_--7.9 __11.5 __ 87

DOCARCH _______ 5.2_4.7_5.1__5.00 __ 110_090_105__101.7 _ 16.2_--6.8 _ 18.5 __ 87
Jpmarn _________ 4.8_4.6_5.5__4.97 __ 140_079_095__104.7 _ 15.5_--9.5 _ 15.0 __ 91
snowstreams _____5.6_4.8_4.3__4.90 __ 120_090_085___98.3 _ 15.2_--6.5 __ 6.0 __ 82
M.T. Cranium _____5.9_5.0_3.7__4.87 __ 110_130_070__103.3 _ 15.5_--8.8 _ 12.5 __ 97
Bsal ____________5.4_5.0_4.2__4.87 __ 125_110_091__108.7 _ 14.6_--7.0 _ 15.0 __ 83
sunflower3 _______6.0_4.5_3.8__4.77 __ 110_095_085__096.7 _ 14.9_--6.0 _ 10.5 __ 90
cdev ____________6.2_4.2_3.6__4.67 __ 109_122_082__104.3 _ 14.2_--9.1 _ 14.5 __101
Pauldry __________6.6_4.5_2.3__4.47 __ 112_095_057___88.0 _15.1_--10.3 _ 24.0 __ 87
____________________________________________

Con Sensus from our 16 forecasts is median value, except that seasonals are calculated from the three monthly values rather than being medians of our seasonals. Would make little difference, however.

The consensus forecast from this group is for slowly falling temperatures relative to normal and by the looks of the snow and MIN values, some fairly severe winter conditions at some point which seems most likely to be in late January or February from the temperature forecasts. The range of peak wind gusts is higher than in some previous contests which indicates a belief that we may see more severe storms than an average winter would produce.

omicron

omicron wrote: »

omicron___6.7 _ 6.3 _ 6.2 ___ 110 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 14.5 _ -5.5 __ 05.0 ___ 75

Edit:
omicron___6.7 _ 6.3 _ 6.2 ___ 110 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 15.6 _ -5.5 __ 05.0 ___ 75

This is assuming the max you saw was 15.3?
If not then I want to change my max forecast to 0.3 above whatever the one you've seen is.

rameire

6.1 _ 6.3 _ 6.1 ___ 089 _ 103 _ 085 ___ 15.6 _ -6.1 __ 08.5 ___ 92

ibtl.

Schadenfreudia

Schad
6.7 _ 5.1 _ 4.0 ___ 110 _ 110 _ 075 ____ 15.5* _ -10.1 _ 17.5 (cm) __ 101 (kts)

Sorry about lateness - didn't realise this contest existed!

*I'm assuming this has already been reached? If not set my forecast to the highest temp recorded on the 1/12 and 2/12!

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for December (IMT was 8.2 and PRC 266% of normal, also MAX so far 16.0, other data probably won't qualify but the max gust was 73 knots and the MIN so far was back in November, December only managed -3.1 C.

Scores for monthly IMT and PRC are worth 5 each. MAX will be worth 10.

Scores will be distributed as follows among the 16 forecasters. Those out of 5 or 10 will be given out in descending order to 3/5 or 6/10 then groups of two with low score only getting zero. Scores out of 15 (seasonal IMT and PRC) will go quite easily from 15 down to zero. Ties will get equal scores of course, but this may vacate or adjust the scoring assignments below the ties. Con Sensus is scored as if they were a contestant but then that score is not counted for anyone below that rank. So somebody will always share a score with Con Sensus in each category.

I have now scored MAX but this could change a bit, although few people went over 16.0 and scores are rank order rather than error based.

FORECASTER ___ Dec IMT,PRC _ MAX _ TOTALS so far __ Max gust if it holds at 73

force eleven ______2.5 _ 4.5 _10.0 _____ 17.0 ____ (8.0)
John mac ________2.0 _ 3.5 _10.0 _____ 15.5 ____ (9.0)
Rikand __________5.0 _ 3.5 _ 5.0*_____ 13.5 ____ (5.0)
omicron _________4.0 _ 2.0 _ 7.0 ______13.0 ____(10.0)
DOCARCH _______ 0.5 _ 2.0 _10.0 _____12.5 ____ (4.0)
Schadenfreudia ___4.0 _ 2.0 _ 5.0 ______11.0 ____ (0.5)
Jpmarn _________ 0.0 _ 5.0 _ 5.0 ______10.0 ____ (2.0)

Con Sensus ______2.0 _ 2.0 _ 5.0 ______ 9.0 ____ (4.0)

Rameire _________1.5 _ 0.0 _ 7.0 ______ 8.5 ____ (2.0)
Pauldry _________ 3.0 _ 2.5 _ 3.0 ______ 8.5 ____ (4.0)
M.T. Cranium _____1.0 _ 2.0 _ 5.0 ______ 8.0 ____ (1.0)
snowstreams _____1.0 _ 3.5 _ 3.0 _______7.5 ____ (8.0)
Strasser _________4.5 _ 2.5 _ 0.0 ______ 7.0 ____ (4.0)
Bsal ____________ 0.5 _ 4.0 _ 1.0 ______ 5.5 ____ (6.0)
sunflower3 _______1.5 _ 2.0 _ 2.0 ______ 5.5 ____ (3.0)
MrSkinner _______ 2.5 _ 0.5 _ 2.0 ______ 5.0 ____ (5.0)
cdev ____________2.0 _ 1.0 _ 1.0 ______ 4.0 ____ (0.5)
____________________________________________

* Rikand could gain points with any temperature higher than 16.0 ... DOCARCH and Johnmac could fall to 9.0 if that higher value is 16.4 or higher ... most other scores are already set but a few between 5 and 9 could fall slightly if the max is above 16.2.

This table will be modified after January's IMT and PRC are set, or if we get a stronger wind gust than 73 knots perhaps.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring update for January

IMT was 5.8 and PRC was 139%

MAX remains 16.0 from December, and MIN during January not below -4 so that is quite possibly yet to come.

Maximum wind gust of 73 knots in December was unbroken and so far there has been very little lying snow at Casement, so no estimated scores for MIN or SNOW yet.

FORECASTER __ Dec-Jan IMT Dec-JanPRC _ MAX _ TOTALS so far _ Max gust and TOTAL if 73kts holds

John mac ________2.0_5.0 __ 3.5_2.5 __10.0 _____ 23.0 ____ (9.0) __ (32.0)
omicron _________4.0_4.5 __ 2.0_4.0 __ 7.0 ______ 21.5 ___ (10.0) __(31.5)
force eleven ______2.5_1.5 __ 4.5_2.0 __10.0 _____ 20.5 ____ (8.0) __ (28.5)
Rikand __________5.0_2.5 __ 3.5_2.0 __ 5.0*_____ 18.0 ____ (5.0) __ (23.0)
Schadenfreudia ___4.0_2.5 __ 2.0_4.0 __ 5.0 ______ 17.5 ____ (0.5) __ (18.0)
M.T. Cranium _____1.0_2.5 __ 2.0_5.0 __ 5.0 ______15.5 ____ (1.0) __ (16.5)
Rameire _________1.5_4.5 __ 0.0_2.0 __ 7.0 ______15.0 ____ (2.0) __ (17.0)
DOCARCH _______ 0.5_1.5 __ 2.0_0.5 __10.0 _____ 14.5 ____ (4.0) __ (18.5)

Con Sensus ______2.0_2.5 __ 2.0_2.0 __ 5.0 ______ 13.5 ____ (4.0) __ (17.5)

Strasser _________4.5_3.0 __ 2.5_2.5 __ 0.0 ______12.5 ____ (4.0) __ (16.5)
Bsal ____________0.5_2.5 __ 4.0_4.0 __ 1.0 ______12.0 ____ (6.0) __ (18.0)
Jpmarn _________ 0.0_1.0 __ 5.0_0.0 __ 5.0 ______11.0 ____ (2.0) __ (13.0)
MrSkinner _______ 2.5_4.5 __ 0.5_1.5 __ 2.0 ______11.0 ____ (5.0) __ (16.0)
Pauldry _________ 3.0_0.5 __ 2.5_1.5 __ 3.0 ______10.5 ____ (4.0) __ (14.5)
snowstreams _____1.0_1.5 __ 3.5_0.5 __ 3.0 _______9.5 ____ (8.0) __ (17.5)
cdev ____________2.0_0.0 __ 1.0_4.5 __ 1.0 ______ 8.5 ____ (0.5) __ ( 9.0)
sunflower3 _______1.5_0.5 __ 2.0_1.5 __ 2.0 ______ 7.5 ____ (3.0) __ (10.5) _________________________________________________________________

* Rikand could gain points with any temperature higher than 16.0 ... DOCARCH and Johnmac could fall to 9.0 if that higher value is 16.4 or higher ... most other scores are already set but a few between 5 and 9 could fall slightly if the max is above 16.2.

M.T. Cranium

February IMT was 4.8 C and PRC was 154%

seasonal IMT was 6.27 C and seasonal PRC was 186% of normal.

MAX remains 16.0 and that part of the contest is now settled.

MIN in February was --5.9 C. That part can be revised by later colder readings.

SNOW is set at 1.5 cms so far. Total will be established 15th April.

MAX wind gust is 73 knots. That part of the contest is also settled.

We are now in a position to establish provisional final scores if (a) there are no colder readings than --5.9 or further snowfalls (points for this category will remain unchanged until more than 4.5 cms total is recorded).


Provisional Total scoring for winter contest 2015-16

FORECASTER _ Dec-Feb IMT/season__Dec-FebPRC/season _MAX_MIN_SNOW_WIND__TOTALS

omicron ______4.0_4.5_0.5__ 14 ____2.0_4.0_3.0__ 12 ___ 7 __ 8 __ 9 __ 10 ____78.0
John mac _____2.0_5.0_5.0__ 12 ____3.5_2.5_3.5__ 13 __ 10 __ 6 __ 6 __ 9 ____ 77.5
force eleven ___2.5_1.5_2.5__ 12 ____4.5_2.0_5.0__ 15 __ 10 __ 3__10 __ 8 ____ 76.0

Strasser ______4.5_3.0_0.5__ 13 ____2.5_2.5_3.0___ 9 ___ 0 __ 4 __ 9 __ 4 ____ 55.0
Rikand _______5.0_2.5_2.5__ 10 ____3.5_2.0_2.0___ 8 ___ 5 __ 4 __ 3 __ 5 ____ 52.5
Bsal _________0.5_2.5_3.5___ 4 ____4.0_4.0_2.0__ 14 ___ 1 __ 5 __ 3 __ 6 ____ 49.5
Rameire ______1.5_4.5_1.0__ 15 ____0.0_2.0_1.5___ 1 ___ 7 __ 9 __ 5 __ 2 ____ 49.5
DOCARCH ____ 0.5_1.5_4.5___ 7 ____2.0_0.5_4.5___ 6 __ 10 __ 6 __ 1 __ 4 ____ 47.5
MrSkinner ____ 2.5_4.5_3.5___ 9 ____0.5_1.5_4.5___ 5 ___ 2 __ 4 __ 5 __ 5 ____ 47.0
snowstreams __1.0_1.5_4.0___ 5 ____3.5_0.5_1.5___ 4 ___ 3 __ 7 __ 7 __ 8 ____ 46.0

Con Sensus ___2.0_2.5_4.5___ 7 ____2.0_2.0_2.0___ 4 ___ 5 __ 4 __ 4 __ 4 ____ 43.0

Jpmarn ______ 0.0_1.0_2.5___ 6 ____5.0_0.0_3.0__ 11 ___ 5 __ 1 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 39.5
M.T. Cranium __1.0_2.5_1.5___ 4 ____2.0_5.0_0.5___ 8 ___ 5 __ 2 __ 4 __ 1 ____ 36.5
Schadenfreudia_4.0_2.5_2.5___ 8 ____2.0_4.0_0.5___ 4 ___ 5 __ 1 __ 1 __ 1 ____ 35.5
sunflower3____ 1.5_0.5_1.5___ 2 ____2.0_1.5_1.5___ 2 ___ 2 _ 10 __ 4 __ 3 ____ 31.5
cdev _________2.0_0.0_1.0___ 1 ____1.0_4.5_1.0__ 10 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 3 __ 1 ____ 27.5
Pauldry ______ 3.0_0.5_0.0___ 0 ____2.5_1.5_0.0___ 0 ___ 3 __ 0 __ 0 __ 4 ____ 14.5
_________________________________________________________________


On these preliminary figures, it's clear that we have almost a three-way tie for the lead. As the MIN and SNOW portions of the contest are not settled, these scores can change. I will double check my math and application of the scoring rules and of course monitor the developments in MIN and SNOW before declaring a winner, second and third.

There will definitely be another post around 15 April if nothing happens to change the scoring.

One thing that emerges from the contest, while the highest scores generally recognized the overall mild and wet theme, nobody in the contest really came close to capturing the very wet outcome or even the very mild December -- the average errors for Jan and Feb were actually lower. The field did fairly well on the minimum temperature and generally overestimated how windy the winter might be. The forecasts for the maximum were probably influenced by short-range considerations at the start although the actual value was obtained well into December.

pauldry

Haha my predictions were a bit drastic

sryanbruen

How did I not see this?

Schadenfreudia

sryanbruen wrote: »

How did I not see this?

I nearly missed it myself - obviously MT is trying to keep us real hotshots away from the table :P