How is your constituency shaping up?

Faugheen

So, with an election around the corner, everyone will be out and about canvassing and the lark.

Some constituencies are more liberal than others, so basically I'm wondering is how you think your constituency will go?

Carlow-Kilkenny will certainly be a much more interesting constituency. At the moment it currently seats Bobby Aylward (FF) Pat Deering (FG) John McGuinness (FF) Ann Phelan (Lab) and John Paul Phelan (FG).

In 2011, FG took 3 out of the 5 seats before Big Phil went to Europe and Aylward reclaimed the seat he lost in 2011, but I think this constituency could change a lot.

John McGuinness will keep his seat. That is a 100 percent certainty.

Phil Hogan's left behind over 10,000 first preference votes from 2011, so it will be very interesting to see if they transfer to FG candidate in Kilkenny City David Fitzgerald or if they go elsewhere.

Sinn Fein have never won a seat in their current guise in this constituency, they have a strong chance in this one with Kathleen Funchion even though she's not exactly the best politician.

John Paul Phelan and Bobby Aylward in South Kilkenny should be a good battle. I'm not sure if both can keep their seats if I'm honest.

The token Carlow representative I reckon is between Pat Deering and Jennifer Murnane O'Connor (FF), although Ann Phelan has a strong presence around South Carlow/North Kilkenny so she could take plenty of votes. Carlow tend to look after their own in the elections, as even Labour's Willie Quinn (who isn't running) claimed about 20 percent of the vote in Carlow during the by-election, and there was also a strong showing for Adrienne Wallace from PBP in Carlow also. Sinn Fein tend to get a solid vote in Carlow which will help Funchion.

Renua are an interesting one in the city as well with Patrick McKee. He could easily claim a lot of the votes left behind by Big Phil and he had a strong showing in the by-election also.

Right now, I reckon that FF and SF will get 1 seat each. The other 3 are between Aylward, McKee, Fitzgerald, John Paul Phelan, Deering and Murnane-O'Connor. Will be a very interesting contest here anyway.

Over to you

Godge

Fine Gael are at 31% in the national poll.

Assuming they get 31% in Carlow/Kilkenny, they should get two seats. Which two that is becomes interesting.

FF and SF should get one each.

The last seat could go anywhere.

Will three FG candidates fightly fiercely for every preference push them back up to three? Unlikely.

Will FF get enough transfers to take two? Possibly, the strong showing in the by-election suggests they will.

Will Labour get any transfers? If FG poll strongly but not enough to take 3, they could transfer enough to Labour.

What of the AAA/PBP? Transfers are of no use to Labour if they can't stay ahead of AAA/PBP but are there enough spare votes from other independents to elect AAA/PBP.

Malcolm Noonan? Green Party took 5% in the by-election, previously had Mary White, can they rebuild and take a seat? Unfortunately, very unlikely, but if the first preferences can be pushed towards 8%, the next election becomes a possibility.

In nearly every constituency, there is potentially an exciting battle for the last seat.

BoJack Horseman

Why are FG running 3 x candidates in Carlow/Kilkenny?

Surely this vote-split is suicide?

They should be running no more than 2 candidates in any constituency.

huey1975

Longford Westmeath is home for me.
We have willie Penrose (Lab), James Bannon (FG), Robert Troy (FF), and Gab McFadden (FG) at the moment. I don't think that the people of Longford Westmeath are ready to elect a Sinn Fein TD considering their lack of any coherent economic policy and their silence regarding kiddie fiddling , bank robbing and murdering so I would expect the same 4 tds to be returned.

Faugheen

Godge wrote: »

Fine Gael are at 31% in the national poll.

Assuming they get 31% in Carlow/Kilkenny, they should get two seats. Which two that is becomes interesting.

FF and SF should get one each.

The last seat could go anywhere.

Will three FG candidates fightly fiercely for every preference push them back up to three? Unlikely.

Will FF get enough transfers to take two? Possibly, the strong showing in the by-election suggests they will.

Will Labour get any transfers? If FG poll strongly but not enough to take 3, they could transfer enough to Labour.

What of the AAA/PBP? Transfers are of no use to Labour if they can't stay ahead of AAA/PBP but are there enough spare votes from other independents to elect AAA/PBP.

Malcolm Noonan? Green Party took 5% in the by-election, previously had Mary White, can they rebuild and take a seat? Unfortunately, very unlikely, but if the first preferences can be pushed towards 8%, the next election becomes a possibility.

In nearly every constituency, there is potentially an exciting battle for the last seat.

I think after McGuinness, Malcolm Noonan is the best politician in the constituency. Has always performed as a councillor and was widely welcomed as Mayor of Kilkenny when nobody wanted anything to do with the Greens. I'd like to say he has a chance, and what helped Mary White is the fact she's from Carlow. I just can't see where Noonan will get the votes in such a staunch FF area like Kilkenny. 2011 was the first time FF elected less than 2 TD's in the area.

The last three seats are so competitive as it is. I wouldnt be surprised if FG returned two, but like you said, which two will be the big question. Aylward has seen a resurgence in South Kilkenny with JP Phelan the current sitting TD, I'm not sure if the latter can win that battle.

Big Phil's votes from 2011 can either go the way of Fitzgerald or among other city candidates like Funchion, McKee and Noonan.

The Carlow TD will be the interesting one. It's Jennifer Murnane's best chance she'll ever get in my opinion, and opinion is split for Pat Deering.

Faugheen

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Why are FG running 3 x candidates in Carlow/Kilkenny?

Surely this vote-split is suicide?

They should be running no more than 2 candidates in any constituency.

To be fair, they claimed 3 seats in 2011.

I think running three would be right. One in Kilkenny City, one in Carlow and one in South Kilkenny. The latter two areas having sitting TDs. FF are doing the exact same thing, and have done for years. In 2007 they claimed three out of the 4 available seats, (Seamus Pattison was returned as Ceann Comhairle)

BoJack Horseman

Faugheen wrote: »

To be fair, they claimed 3 seats in 2011.

I think running three would be right. One in Kilkenny City, one in Carlow and one in South Kilkenny. The latter two areas having sitting TDs. FF are doing the exact same thing, and have done for years. In 2007 they claimed three out of the 4 available seats, (Seamus Pattison was returned as Ceann Comhairle)

First preferences fell from 38% in 2011 to 20% in the by election.

My feeling is that 3 candidates is a sop to the local party structure & is not sensible for maximizing seats...

Run 2 candidates & FG may get 2 elected.... split that amongst 3 & there is a risk of only 1 getting elected.

We had it for years with Labour in Wicklow... one of their strongest constituencies... easily 2 seats there for them, but in-fighting & splits meant 3 candidates and barely missing out on 2 seats accordingly.

Riskymove

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Why are FG running 3 x candidates in Carlow/Kilkenny?

Surely this vote-split is suicide?

They should be running no more than 2 candidates in any constituency.

it can work in ensuring two seats if it is about getting a particular geographic vote for each candidate and then transfers

L1011

Kildare North

Can't see FG holding two - Durkan gone I think, can't see FF not getting one unless they hideously split their vote 50/50 and transfers go incredibly wrong. Catherine Murphy likely to top the poll but not having a running mate. Expect Stagg to get in by picking up transfers extensively.

Godge

L1011 wrote: »

Kildare North

Can't see FG holding two - Durkan gone I think, can't see FF not getting one unless they hideously split their vote 50/50 and transfers go incredibly wrong. Catherine Murphy likely to top the poll but not having a running mate. Expect Stagg to get in by picking up transfers extensively.

would Reada Cronin not be in the running for a seat?

L1011

Godge wrote: »

would Reada Cronin not be in the running for a seat?

She'll do OK but I can't see her getting in. There's sufficient intra-party warfare that getting votes outside of the council MD might be difficult!

masti123

Dublin Mid-West:

1. Eoin O'Broin SF (he will top the poll at close to quota)
2. Frances Fitzgerald FG (still doing too well in parts)
3. John Curran FF (lucky to scrape 5,000 fp votes even with Dowds out, but clear third)
4. Gino Kenny AAA/PBP (will come in around the 4,000 mark thanks to a left vote transfer pact)
5. Paul Gogarty Ind (doing surprisingly well in home base)
6. Derek Keating FG (very close to Gogarty in or around 3,300 mark)
7. Joanna Tuffy LP (vote collapsing to below 3,000 mark)
8. McNally SD (won't pass 1,800 vote mark but will take a few disaffected Labour votes. Getting a party name vote rather than any recognition of her personally)
9. Timmons Ind (well liked and popular in Clondalkin village area but gets squeezed out of fp votes by SF and PBP. Will poll around 1.700 mark which is a great improvement on his local election poll where he got in on massive SF transfers)
10. Hennessy WP (well liked in Balgaddy and picking up a few old Lucan WP votes. Again will suffer from no transfers to drag her up)
11. All other candidates (that includes Renua and other non party candidates)

Prediction: 1FG 1SF 1FF 1PBP/IND

Godge

masti123 wrote: »

Dublin Mid-West:

1. Eoin O'Broin SF (he will top the poll at close to quota)
2. Frances Fitzgerald FG (still doing too well in parts)
3. John Curran FF (lucky to scrape 5,000 fp votes even with Dowds out, but clear third)
4. Gino Kenny AAA/PBP (will come in around the 4,000 mark thanks to a left vote transfer pact)
5. Paul Gogarty Ind (doing surprisingly well in home base)
6. Derek Keating FG (very close to Gogarty in or around 3,300 mark)
7. Joanna Tuffy LP (vote collapsing to below 3,000 mark)
8. McNally SD (won't pass 1,800 vote mark but will take a few disaffected Labour votes. Getting a party name vote rather than any recognition of her personally)
9. Timmons Ind (well liked and popular in Clondalkin village area but gets squeezed out of fp votes by SF and PBP. Will poll around 1.700 mark which is a great improvement on his local election poll where he got in on massive SF transfers)
10. Hennessy WP (well liked in Balgaddy and picking up a few old Lucan WP votes. Again will suffer from no transfers to drag her up)
11. All other candidates (that includes Renua and other non party candidates)

Prediction: 1FG 1SF 1FF 1PBP/IND

Very Interesting,

FG/Labour took all four seats in 2011, yet you only have them getting 1 in 2016. That is quite a change.

In the locals (Lucan plus Clondalkin), SF got 25%, FG 18%, FF 11%, Labour 8.3% and PBP 8.5%. In a four-seater you need 20% to get a seat.

This should be nailed on a SF gain, yet I wonder. The Greens and the PDs have taken seats before. Gogarty could be back again or a high-profile SD or Renua candidate could take the anti-establishment mantle from SF. Still though 25% in the locals should be enough.

Combined FG and Labour had nearly 27% in the locals. Their vote has increased since then. Reducing them to one seat relies on poor vote transfer between the two and them not picking up transfers from anywhere else. If I was to put money on someone losing out, it would be on Curran. He got 11.8% in the last general election and they were further down come the locals. He was even more transfer toxic than SF the last time.

I think it will be FG, SF, Labour and one other probably Gogarty. The real surprise could be PBP beating FF to fifth place. To get a second extreme left elected, you would need SF to be well over the quota on the first count.

Pride Fighter

Sinn Fein should get between a quota and a quarter and a quota and a half. Bizarre decision for them to run 1 candidate. This will ensure Gino Kenny gets a seat IMO. I hope FF dont get back in. We kicked them out of Dublin for good reason.

PopePalpatine

Looks like Paddy Power's done my work for me. :pac: There's also this Irish Times article on the constituency too.

But in all seriousness, I can see Peadar Toibin heading the polls, thanks to his campaigning on behalf of Navan Hospital which is surely going to be brought up once canvassing gets under way, and SF's anti-government populism should put him over the line. Meath West is a more rural constituency since the border with Meath East was adjusted to include Kells, so his opposition of the Protection of Life During Pregnancy Act probably won't be high on the agenda. Toibin is unlikely to leave much room for other far-left (economically speaking, of course) candidates.

Damien English will probably end up finishing 2nd, with Shane Cassells competing for the final podium spot Dail seat with Ray Butler, who's coming to the end of his first Dail term - English, on the other hand, is currently Minister for Skills, Research and Innovation, and has been in the Dail since 2002. Cassells could only muster 7th in 2011, with the Fianna Fail vote split between him and then-incumbent Johnny Brady. With Fianna Fail only fielding one candidate this time around, Cassels won't need to fear a repeat of 2011.

Personal controversies for Butler could also trip him up. In 2013, he submitted receipts which he claimed were from two bands who played during that year's St Patrick's Day Festival in Trim, but the bands claimed that they weren't paid. Last February, a "Land League" protest outside his constituency office turned (even more) sour, when a protester claimed that he hit her with his car. With Toibin, English and Cassells all based in Navan, possibly the only thing in his favour is that the Trim area hasn't failed to return a TD since the 1970s.

Now for the also-rans:

David Gilroy, IND (12/1 to win a seat)
Gilroy currently serves on Meath County Council, and left the Labour Party some time in early 2014, so chances are he's probably going to try to capitalise on the anti-Irish Water vote. Gilroy was elected from the Kells area. Gilroy's brother John is currently a senator, and remains in the Labour Party.

Tracy McElhinney, LAB (16/1 to win a seat)
McElhinney served as county councillor from 2009-14 for the Trim area, but unsurprisingly the Labour brand was a massive handicap in 2014. McElhinney served as shop steward at NEC in Ballivor before being made redundant when the plant closed in 2006, and subsequently set up "Next Era Calling" in an attempt to re-open it. The Labour connection is not going to help, regardless of how much credit the party can claim for the marriage equality referendum.

Trevor Golden, IND (16/1 to win a seat)
Yet another county councillor! Like McElhinney, he also represents the Trim area on the council. Judging from his Twitter account, he seems quite concerned about rural access to broadband, and not nearly as much about water charges.

Wayne Forde, IND (16/1 to win a seat)
Forde represents the Navan local authority on the council. In October 2014, he pulled out of a coalition of independent councillors with Fine Gael, leaving that coalition with 20 out of 40 councillors, having had a change of heart on water charges.

Seamus McMenamin, GRN (33/1 to win a seat)
McMenamin, a graduate of TCD, is described on the Green Party's site as a "patient advocate and family doctor", so it's safe to say his campaign will focus on Navan Hospital - indeed, he featured in one of Vincent Browne's "People's Debates", complaining of cuts in healthcare. Running on behalf of the Green Party will surely cost him votes amongst rural residents.

Alan Lawes, DDI (66/1 to win a seat)
Oh boy, it's DDI! :rolleyes: Lawes was formerly involved with People Before Profit, and even ran on their behalf (but was unsuccessful) in the 2014 local elections in the Navan area. A search for him on Boards gives us this gem, so at least the Eirigi/Anti-Austerity People's Front types have someone for them. :pac:

BoJack Horseman

Pride Fighter wrote: »

Sinn Fein should get between a quota and a quarter and a quota and a half. Bizarre decision for them to run 1 candidate.

It's better (and cheaper) to run & lock down 1 candidate & one seat.

Better than risking getting zero with a split vote & the usual poor transfer record..

Pride Fighter

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

It's better (and cheaper) to run & lock down 1 candidate & one seat.

Better than risking getting zero with a split vote & the usual poor transfer record..

If they were on just under a quota I'd agree with you, but they most certainly aren't. Gino Kenny should get in on the Sinn Fein surplus as a result. If Sinn Fein were really clever, they would run 2 to ensure Gino does not win a seat. He is getting lots of kudos for delivering an equine centre for the area and this will take lots of working class votes from Sinn Fein. With a Dail seat, Gino could build a powerful infrastructure and ensure that Sinn Fein would never be within an asses roar of 2 seats in the future.

From a long term perspective, in order to win national government in the future, develop a running mate for Eoin O'Broin and to potentially win a seat now or in the future they should run 2. They must not want to do either.

Hesh's Umpire

Laois. A three seater.

One half of the Laois Offaly constituency which is coming to an end.

There are three sitting Laois TD's, Charlie Flanagan (FG), Sean Fleming (FF) and Brian Stanley (SF).

I'd expect all three to be comfortably returned. Boring I'm afraid!

ciarriaithuaidh

Old Kerry North/West Limerick and Kerry South constituencies broken up from 2011 election.
West Limerick goes into Limerick county constituency.

Kerry is now one 5-seater constituency.
The sitting TD's are:
KY NTH/West LIMK:
Jimmy Deenihan (FG), Arthur Spring (Labour), Martin Ferris (SF) - all from Kerry.

KY STH:
Brendan Griffin (FG), Tom Fleming (Ind), Michael Healy-Rae (Ind)

I'd imagine Deenihan, Ferris are safe bets. Brendan Griffin will make it based on his strong showing last time out plus transfers from Deenihan I think.

It's between Healy-Rae, Spring, Fleming and FF candidate John Brassil for last 2 seats. This is going to be very tight.
Always a strong Labour vote in Tralee, so Spring has a good chance despite the possible swing against his party.
Healy-Rae has been active all over the county during his time on the county council and is far from the gombeen some people think he is.
Fleming was second only to Griffin in the 2011 Kerry South 1st count and has a strong support in Killarney. He will lose some votes to Brassil as Fleming was drawing from the FF reservoir of votes in Kerry South.
Brassil cannot be ruled out as there is a strong FF vote in North Kerry. Even McEllistrim (who I would not be alone in not having a high regard for) got 11.5% of 1st preference in 2011 (Was 18% in 2007) That would indicate that Brassil will pull a large vote in North Kerry.

Hard to call, but I would predict:

Deenihan
Ferris
Griffin
Spring
Brassil

Annasopra

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Why are FG running 3 x candidates in Carlow/Kilkenny?

Surely this vote-split is suicide?

They should be running no more than 2 candidates in any constituency.

FG running 3 candidaates in some constituencies does make sense.

oscarBravo

Mayo is going from a five- to a four-seater. I expect Kenny, Ring and Calleary to keep their seats without too much trouble. The fourth is probably going to be a dogfight between Michelle Mulherin (FG), Lisa Chambers (FF) and Rose Conway-Walsh (SF). I honestly couldn't call it.

Henwin

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

Old Kerry North/West Limerick and Kerry South constituencies broken up from 2011 election.
West Limerick goes into Limerick county constituency.

Kerry is now one 5-seater constituency.
The sitting TD's are:
KY NTH/West LIMK:
Jimmy Deenihan (FG), Arthur Spring (Labour), Martin Ferris (SF) - all from Kerry.

KY STH:
Brendan Griffin (FG), Tom Fleming (Ind), Michael Healy-Rae (Ind)

I'd imagine Deenihan, Ferris are safe bets. Brendan Griffin will make it based on his strong showing last time out plus transfers from Deenihan I think.

It's between Healy-Rae, Spring, Fleming and FF candidate John Brassil for last 2 seats. This is going to be very tight.
Always a strong Labour vote in Tralee, so Spring has a good chance despite the possible swing against his party.
Healy-Rae has been active all over the county during his time on the county council and is far from the gombeen some people think he is.
Fleming was second only to Griffin in the 2011 Kerry South 1st count and has a strong support in Killarney. He will lose some votes to Brassil as Fleming was drawing from the FF reservoir of votes in Kerry South.
Brassil cannot be ruled out as there is a strong FF vote in North Kerry. Even McEllistrim (who I would not be alone in not having a high regard for) got 11.5% of 1st preference in 2011 (Was 18% in 2007) That would indicate that Brassil will pull a large vote in North Kerry.

Hard to call, but I would predict:

Deenihan
Ferris
Griffin
Spring
Brassil

There is no way Michael Healy rae will not get elected, I'm not a fan but he has a huge following in Kerry, spring will not get elected, and it will be between Fleming and Brassil for the last seat,
My prediction
Deenihan
Healy rae
Ferris
Griffen
Brassil

ciarriaithuaidh

Henwin wrote: »

There is no way Michael Healy rae will not get elected, I'm not a fan but he has a huge following in Kerry, spring will not get elected, and it will be between Fleming and Brassil for the last seat,
My prediction
Deenihan
Healy rae
Ferris
Griffen
Brassil

It's hard to call, but don't forget along with the large Labour vote in North Kerry, Labout also got 11% of the No.1 votes in Kerry South in the 2011 election. They could get hit hard in this election but there's been a fairly consistent and strong Labour vote in both constituency's and in Tralee especially. Wouldn't underestimate it.

Healy-Rae, it's hard to say how much support he will garner in North Kerry's main population centres of Tralee and Listowel for example. Will be interesting. I definitely agree that Brassil is a viable candidate. Doesn't have any of the baggage that past FF candidates have had.

mansize

Offaly is a 3way run off for the 3rd seat (after 1FF and 1FG) between Renua (shudder) FF and Ind FF

Badabing

Dublin South West, currently 1SF 1 Labour 1AAA 1 IND. Now a five seater and more middle class this time. Tough to call : Deffo 2 left seats maybe 3, 1 FG probably, last seat will be a dog fight. Labour in big trouble here in a traditional strong area FF running 1 candidate and might grab a seat. Katrine Zappone is running and might be a surprise she'll be very transfer friendly, also Eamon Maloney is running as a IND ex Labour.

r93kaey5p2izun

masti123 wrote: »

Dublin Mid-West:

1. Eoin O'Broin SF (he will top the poll at close to quota)
2. Frances Fitzgerald FG (still doing too well in parts)
3. John Curran FF (lucky to scrape 5,000 fp votes even with Dowds out, but clear third)
4. Gino Kenny AAA/PBP (will come in around the 4,000 mark thanks to a left vote transfer pact)
5. Paul Gogarty Ind (doing surprisingly well in home base)
6. Derek Keating FG (very close to Gogarty in or around 3,300 mark)
7. Joanna Tuffy LP (vote collapsing to below 3,000 mark)
8. McNally SD (won't pass 1,800 vote mark but will take a few disaffected Labour votes. Getting a party name vote rather than any recognition of her personally)
9. Timmons Ind (well liked and popular in Clondalkin village area but gets squeezed out of fp votes by SF and PBP. Will poll around 1.700 mark which is a great improvement on his local election poll where he got in on massive SF transfers)
10. Hennessy WP (well liked in Balgaddy and picking up a few old Lucan WP votes. Again will suffer from no transfers to drag her up)
11. All other candidates (that includes Renua and other non party candidates)

Prediction: 1FG 1SF 1FF 1PBP/IND

I see this more or less exact post on p.ie but with Keating getting fourth seat as transfers bring him ahead of Gino and Gogarty. I agree with the basic assessment of fp votes but unsure how transfers may finish up. I think Curran may surpass expectations though with the traditional FF voters returning and other moderates seeing them as the best real prospect of removing FG. The Irish Water promise may nudge this further.

I think Keating remains a laughing stock in many quarters following the scandal with the local papers and is really seen as someone who would turn up at the opening of an envelope and then claim credit for manufacturing it too. I also wouldn't bank on Labour tranfers there.

Hard to call between Gino and Gogarty - both well respected by many in their bases. Usually Gogarty would be more transfer friendly but I think there are lots of very angry Labour voters who have been pushed further left.

theflipdave

mansize wrote: »

Offaly is a 3way run off for the 3rd seat (after 1FF and 1FG) between Renua (shudder) FF and Ind FF

Probably

hurler32

Limerick County
A 3 seater which has been chopped and changed in recent elections with a portion of west limerick returning from Kerry north. There is a heavy leaning of candidates in West Limerick.Niall Collins FF's only candidate is home and hosed. Fine Gael have 2 TDs in the area with Young O Donovan in NCW and Tom Neville standing to hold his fathers seat. Theres a lot of wealth in the constituency in Adare, Croagh etc which would always aid Fine Gael with their traditional vote but there is huge anger and fear in the area due to Fine Gael closing many garda stations in the county in particular Askeaton. This has led to huge numbers of robberies . Fine Gael would have won 2 definetly only for this and could still pull off the 2.
Heffernan the ex Labour guy will poll well , SF will improve but Browne is very far west in Abbeyfeale, the Sheehy lady would have been a bigger threat and ex FF O Donoghue is popular in his part of the world but it is Ind Emmet O Brien who is best placed to dislodge one of the FG seats, he topped the poll in council elections, is well known in GAA etc and has a hard working campaign team so if asked 1FF, 1FG, 1 Ind
PS some other poster made out Healy Rae wouldnt get in Kerry, id say theres a better chance of the Greens getting an overall majority!!

hurler32

Limerick County
A 3 seater which has been chopped and changed in recent elections with a portion of west limerick returning from Kerry north. There is a heavy leaning of candidates in West Limerick.Niall Collins FF's only candidate is home and hosed. Fine Gael have 2 TDs in the area with Young O Donovan in NCW and Tom Neville standing to hold his fathers seat. Theres a lot of wealth in the constituency in Adare, Croagh etc which would always aid Fine Gael along with their traditional vote but there is huge anger and fear in the area due to Fine Gael closing many garda stations in the county in particular Askeaton. This has led to huge numbers of robberies . Fine Gael would have won 2 definetly only for this and could still pull off the 2.
Heffernan the ex Labour guy will poll well , SF will improve but Browne is very far west in Abbeyfeale, the Sheehy lady would have been a bigger threat and ex FF O Donoghue is popular in his part of the world but it is Ind Emmet O Brien who is best placed to dislodge one of the FG seats, he topped the poll in council elections, is well known in GAA etc and has a hard working campaign team so if asked 1FF, 1FG, 1 Ind
PS some other poster made out Healy Rae wouldnt get in Kerry, id say outside of the footballer Deenihan ..Heay rae could top the poll!!

Lockstep

Galway West/South Mayo. Five seater.

Main contenders are as follows.

Eamon Ó Cuiv (FF) will almost certainly top the poll. Strong support base in the Gael Thact where he's well known for getting sh!t done for the constituency. Doesn't give a damn outside of Conamara though.

Sean Kyne (FG) scraped into the last Dáil but has become the most high profile FGer in the constituency, especially since Brian Walsh resigned. Solid voting base in English speaking Conamara and is a hard worker. Would be transfer friendly as well.

Noel Grealish (Independent/Former PD) Has reinvented himself as the Hospital and Bypass candidate. Will easily get in.

Trevor Ó Clochartaigh (SF) Ran for Labour in 2004 but left the party and has since joined SF. Will get a sizable Gael Thact vote seeing as he's from there, particularly from the ones who dislike Ó Cuiv for whatever reason but still want a Gaelgeoir. Dunno how transfer friendly he is though.

Catherine Connolly (Former Labour/independent Marmite candidate. A lot of people love her as she's opinionated, articulate and angrily left wing. A lot of people hate her as she's a crank and deeply negative. Has SWP/People Before Profit activists in Galway West canvassing for her rather than the SP/AAA candidate (Dunno why) Only just missed out on a seat in 2011 and has a strong chance as she's city based but has support in Conamara. Main problem she's facing is chasing the same votes as Ó Clochartaigh: angry, anti-austerity and anti-government voters as well as non-FF Gaelgeoirs.

Derek Nolan (Lab) Sitting TD, despite Labour's meltdown still in with a fighting chance. He's well known in the constituency and there's still a sizable Labour vote in the city.

John O'Mahoney (FG) FG have a huge vote in Galway and he'll hoover up the South Mayo votes but dunno if it'll be enough to get him over the line as he's not known in Galway, especially as Ó Cuiv will get enough votes in South Mayo areas like Ballinrobe.

{Hildegard Naughton (FG) Senator but doesn't seem very well known. Basically a sweeper candidate for Galway city by FG.

O Cuiv, Grealish and Kyne are all pretty much dead-certs.The last two seats are a toss-up. SF and Connolly will be fighting for the same angry votes and there's definitely a seat there for one of them but not two. The last seat is probably for a government party and I'd say Nolan has the best chance. He's transfer friendly and there's enough of a Labour vote in Galway city to see him over, especially as he topped the poll in 2011.

saltsun

Galway West here too (never mind that shower from Mayo...)

O'Cuiv, Kyne, Grealish to cross the line easily, and I'd expect O'Clochartaigh and O'Mahoney to get elected, though the last two not without challenges.

Nolans biggest mistake was spending too much time outside the country, never mind constituency - from what his previous voters have said.

gandalf

Badabing wrote: »

Dublin South West, currently 1SF 1 Labour 1AAA 1 IND. Now a five seater and more middle class this time. Tough to call : Deffo 2 left seats maybe 3, 1 FG probably, last seat will be a dog fight. Labour in big trouble here in a traditional strong area FF running 1 candidate and might grab a seat. Katrine Zappone is running and might be a surprise she'll be very transfer friendly, also Eamon Maloney is running as a IND ex Labour.

Yes this constituency is a mess for the Government parties.

Labour have lost Rabbitte their big vote getter to retirement and his replacements are anonymous. I predict they will return no one.

I predict that SF will hold their seat but won't get transfers to gain another (especially as the constituency is taking in parts of the old Dublin South and them being transfer toxic in a lot of middle class areas).

Unfortunately I can see Paul Murphy getting returned. So that's a seat to the AAA.

I'd predict 1SF, 1AAA, 1FG, 1IND and 1 Renua.

FG might get a seat but the selection of candidates leaves a lot to be desired. Anne Marie Dermody just looks untrustworthy. Colm Brophy does not have a good profile in my area of the constituency and Karen Warren just seems too lightweight. As I said between them they might pick up a seat or they could split the vote so much they will all get eliminated.

The wildcards here are the Independents. I definitely think that 1 will get elected although I don't see Eamon Maloney being returned as one of them . If no FG's are returned the Renua candidate could get in instead of them.

Boulevardier

Dublin Bay South is wide open.

Ruairi Quinn is retiring. Labour are not trying to replace him, and are only defending Humphreys seat.

Lucinda has left FG and support for Renua is ungaugeable. FG have a safe seat with Eoghan Murphy, and are targeting Lucinda with popular Rathgar pharmacist Kate O'Connell.

Chris Andrews is now a Shinner. Miriam O'Callaghan's brother Jim is the only FF candidate, but not yet setting the place on fire.

Eamon Ryan did extremely well in the Euros, and he will pick up some of the liberal vote that used to go to Quinn.

Mannix Flynn (ind) and Annette Mooney (profit before people) have niche votes. Glenna Lynch (social democrats) is also going strongly after the liberal and ex-Labour vote.

If the election were this week I would call it FG 2, Lab 1, SF 1 or else FG 1, Lab 1 SF 1 Renua 1.

However, that picture could start to look different as the campaign unfolds, so I aim to put up a revised guess in about 2 weeks.

mansize

Right wing religious zealot, Kate Bopp, has declared for Offaly! Wonder will she improve on her dismal 466 from Tipp last time around...

An Ciarraioch

Kerry has three banker predictions: Healy-Rae will top the poll, followed swiftly by Martin Ferris (SF), and Jimmy Deenihan (FG). Labour did poorly in the 2014 locals, leaving Spring almost certainly out of the running. Three groupings appear set to contest the final two seats, with Griffin (FG) one of their more ambitious backbenchers slugging it out with John Brassil (FF) and Tom Fleming (Independent Alliance). The latter has drifted out on Paddy Power's constituency odds, so right now looks like 2 FG, 1 Ind, 1 FF, 1 SF.

For Forks Sake

mansize wrote: »

Right wing religious zealot, Kate Bopp, has declared for Offaly! Wonder will she improve on her dismal 466 from Tipp last time around...

What did we do to get landed with her? Anyway, thought she was based somewhere down south kildare direction?

gandalf

Actually I forgot totally about John Lahart in Dublin South West so I'll revise my predictions.

1SF, 1AAA, 1FG, 1IND and 1 FF.

mansize

For Forks Sake wrote: »

What did we do to get landed with her? Anyway, thought she was based somewhere down south kildare direction?

It says Portumna on her personal FB

Delighted if she tanked completely

mansize

On the canvass today I think the third Offaly seat could be Renua, they are pumping a lot of money into it

For Forks Sake

mansize wrote: »

On the canvass today I think the third Offaly seat could be Renua, they are pumping a lot of money into it

Leahy was first out with a shedload of posters alright.

mansize

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Leahy was first out with a shedload of posters alright.

He's third fave, after the unbackable Corcoran Kennedy and Cowen

TCDStudent1

Galway East is fascinating this time around. We have lost a chunk of the constituency to Roscommon and we have 1 less seat this time around. Traditionally, it was 2 FG & 2 FF Tds elected . However, Colm Keaveney became the first Labour TD elected here in 2011. This time around, he runs for FF and he is facing a real battle.

Sean Canney: Independent and well known. Very close to getting elected last time. He will probably get in this time and take a lot of votes of Keaveney. He is from Tuam area and from a FF background. Therefore, many FF supporters who did not like the manner in which Keaveney joined the party may well defect to Canney.

Paul Connaughton: Elected for the first time in 2011 taking over from his Dad, he has been really low key in his time in the Dáil but then so was his Dad. However, he seems to have a very good local reputation. He is just about based in Galway East now (as the East part of the county is gone) but I think he will get in, although not as comfortably as PP 4/9 price reflects

Ciaran Cannon: The other FG candidate & has a high profile as a junior minister. He is also well located in the way the new constituency has been realigned. I suspect he will poll ahead of Connaughton.

Colm Keaveney: Really hard to judge this one. FF have always been traditionally strong in Galway East so you have to assume he will get some of those votes. However, people were very angry at local level with the manner in how he joined FF. Some people will not vote for him because of that & will vote Rabbitte instead.

Ann Rabbitte: Probably FF's best shot of a seat. But she lacks a profile (I'd never heard of her until I saw the list of candidates). Not a great location to be based either.

Lorraine Higgins: Did well in 2011 & seems capable. Maybe would have had an outside chance if it was still a 4 seater. But hard to see Galway East give many votes to Labour at the moment.

The others wont come near to being elected.

My prediction: No FF seat for the first time in Galway East. 2 FG (Connaughton & Cannon) & 1 Independent (Canney).

glued

Kildare South is an interesting one. Jack Wall is retiring for Labour who has been very popular in Athy and Monasterevin. His son Mark is trying to replace him but Monasterevin has been lost to Laois and Labour's support elsewhere in Kildare is at an all time low.

I think Martin Heydon (FG) will get in along with Fianna Fail's Sean O Fearghail. Sinn Fein haven't a hope of getting a seat after making a complete mess of their selection. They wanted Sorcha O'Neill from Naas (Kildare North) to run over local counciller Mark Lynch who got elected in 2014 on the 12th count but they made a mess of the whole situation and have fielded a completely unknown candidate from outisde the constituency with no chance of being elected. Sinn Fein would have been in a good position to gain a seat in Kildare South. Mark Wall will attract a lot of votes from Athy but isn't well known in Newbridge and Kildare outside of GAA circles. I think he'll struggle to get elected as Labour won't get many votes from either Newbridge or Kildare.

The third seat is between Fiona O'Loughlin (FF) and Fiona McLoughlin Healy (FG) for me. Both candidates would be well known to the people of Kildare and Newbridge. I think Fiona O'Loughlin will take the seat but McLoughlin Healy will push her very close.

Predictions: Martin Heydon (FG), Sean O'Fearghail (FF) and Fiona O'Loughlin (FF).

K-9

Donegal looks like 2 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG and probably either an Independent, another FF'er and possibly another SF.

Thomas Pringle is the sitting Independent in the old Donegal SW constituency, FF have a good geographical spread with sitting TD Charlie McConnologue covering Inishowen and Pat "the Cope" Gallagher with a strong personal vote. Dessie Shiels will look to build on the last election and as a Letterkenny candidiate should do well there. Can't see him getting enough transfers though. If FF can manage their transfers I'd say they'll get the last seat.

K-9

Donegal looks like 2 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG and probably either an Independent, another FF'er and possibly another SF.

Thomas Pringle is the sitting Independent in the old Donegal SW constituency, FF have a good geographical spread with sitting TD Charlie McConnologue covering Inishowen and Pat "the Cope" Gallagher with a strong personal vote. Dessie Shiels will look to build on the last election and as a Letterkenny candidiate should do well there. Can't see him getting enough transfers though. If FF can manage their transfers I'd say they'll get the last seat.

Godge

K-9 wrote: »

Donegal looks like 2 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG and probably either an Independent, another FF'er and possibly another SF.

Thomas Pringle is the sitting Independent in the old Donegal SW constituency, FF have a good geographical spread with sitting TD Charlie McConnologue covering Inishowen and Pat "the Cope" Gallagher with a strong personal vote. Dessie Shiels will look to build on the last election and as a Letterkenny candidiate should do well there. Can't see him getting enough transfers though. If FF can manage their transfers I'd say they'll get the last seat.

One of the interesting questions about the new big 5-seaters - Kerry, Tipperary and Donegal - is whether transfers will remain on party lines or will say former Donegal NE voters transfer to another Donegal NE candidate rather than the same party. Something else to watch out for in the results.

K-9

It could well decide the final seat in Donegal. Inishowen has 2 TD's and will want to keep them so MacLochlainn might transfer a bit to FF McConologue, and if he gets a decent share of the Cope's personal vote as well, he'll be in with a great shout for the 5th seat.

Doherty, MacLochlainn and the Cope Gallagher all get high personal votes and FG are guaranteed a seat. Pringle will get a lot of the South Donegal vote so he'll be depending on geography plus transfers from Doherty and another Independent from S. Donegal.

McLoughlin

Wexford 5 seats up for grabs

Mick Wallace will get a seat.

Brendan Howlin is probably one of the few Labour TDs that will retain his seat.

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will have at least one each both Paul Kehoe and James Browne

The 5th seat will be the most interesting with a battle depending on transfers between Sinn Fein Johnny Mythen, Fine Gael Mick Darcy, Fianna Fáil Malcon Byrne, Independent Ger Carthy and possible People Before Profit Deidre Wadding and Social Democrats Leonard Kelly

Ger Carthy is in south Wexford were Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil don't have a strong candidate except token female added to the ballet and Ger Carthy will eat into Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil votes.

flazio

Roscommon -East Galway
Bit of a dull one if I'm honest, most of the candidates seem to have forgotten that the boundaries have changed and seem to be concentrated on Roscommon. Denis Naughten has been very vocal about Ballinasloe issues however and should top the polls in that area, rest of Roscommon though seems to like the Ming backed candidate Michael Fitzmaurice who's actually from the Galway side is expected to top the polls outright with Naughten following. Third seat is up for grabs though. Fine Gael are only running the one candidate Maura Hopkins but she's a relative unknown for most of the constituency and her only strong pitch seems to be she's with the Government party. Fianna Fail are the only party to run more than one candidate, Radio presenter Eugene Murphy and Shane Curran. Out of the two of them Shane is expected to have the better shout. Sinn Fein have Luke Ming Cambells former press secretary Claire Kerrane but that's not likely to be enough to get her over the line. Greens, Renua, Labour and People before Profit are all running one candidate each but aren't likely to feature. Social Democrats aren't running anyone.
Likely outcome Naughten, Fitz and Hopkins

nice_guy80

flazio wrote: »

Roscommon -East Galway
Bit of a dull one if I'm honest, most of the candidates seem to have forgotten that the boundaries have changed and seem to be concentrated on Roscommon. Denis Naughten has been very vocal about Ballinasloe issues however and should top the polls in that area, rest of Roscommon though seems to like the Ming backed candidate Michael Fitzmaurice who's actually from the Galway side is expected to top the polls outright with Naughten following. Third seat is up for grabs though. Fine Gael are only running the one candidate Maura Hopkins but she's a relative unknown for most of the constituency and her only strong pitch seems to be she's with the Government party. Fianna Fail are the only party to run more than one candidate, Radio presenter Eugene Murphy and Shane Curran. Out of the two of them Shane is expected to have the better shout. Sinn Fein have Luke Ming Cambells former press secretary Claire Kerrane but that's not likely to be enough to get her over the line. Greens, Renua, Labour and People before Profit are all running one candidate each but aren't likely to feature. Social Democrats aren't running anyone.
Likely outcome Naughten, Fitz and Hopkins

Hopkins? If there was a decent third Independent in the race they'd win!

Fred Swanson

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