How is your constituency shaping up?

freshbread

Unfortunately we have a terrible diverse constituency and added to that woe we have the single issue Mr "Water Charges" Murphy in the mix and will get in leaving only four seats with the first two going to FG & SF, and then the mix up for the last two between McMahon, Lahart and Maloney. Impossible to predict, all good people ... do we need something new, something old or something as is ... that is the question?

gandalf

Sorry freshbread I disagree with you totally imho the majority of candidates running in DSW are substandard and aren't even fit to be a Councillor let alone a National Representative.

Loafing Oaf

Mayo (well not technically moved back there but will soon)

Seemed like it was done and dusted 3FG 1FF, according to the bookies anyhow, but Ivan Yates said Enda's 'whingers' declaration could be a game changer and hand the last seat to Lisa Chambers or RCW (more likely the former). I'm dubious about this, don't think Bertie suffered much for telling the begudgers to go off and commit suicide, but maybe...

TCDStudent1

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Mayo (well not technically moved back there but will soon)

Seemed like it was done and dusted 3FG 1FF, according to the bookies anyhow, but Ivan Yates said Enda's 'whingers' declaration could be a game changer and hand the last seat to Lisa Chambers or RCW (more likely the former). I'm dubious about this, don't think Bertie suffered much for telling the begudgers to go off and commit suicide, but maybe...

Yeah don't it will make any difference in Mayo. It might have an impact outside of Mayo.

In saying that, I am shocked that Mulhern is 1/6 to get in! I thought her seat would be in doubt from the start as her time in the Dail has been very underwhelming.

UnitedIrishman

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

Yeah don't it will make any difference in Mayo. It might have an impact outside of Mayo.

In saying that, I am shocked that Mulhern is 1/6 to get in! I thought her seat would be in doubt from the start as her time in the Dail has been very underwhelming.

With O'Mahoney gone she's going all out to pick up a lot of the East Mayo votes but it'll be a battle to hold on I'd imagine.

Loafing Oaf

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

With O'Mahoney gone she's going all out to pick up a lot of the East Mayo votes but it'll be a battle to hold on I'd imagine.

Odds on Chambers have tightened at the last minute and Mulherin has gone out a bit, still strong favourite though...

Loafing Oaf

Any word from Mayo, haven't heard anything from RTE/Newstalk yet?

K-9

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Any word from Mayo, haven't heard anything from RTE/Newstalk yet?

RTE say it is too early to predict the last seat between Mulhern and Chambers.

gandalf

Tallies indicate that DSW will look like this

1 SF, 1 AAA, 1 FF, 1 FG and 1 AN Other (too hard to call yet!)

Loafing Oaf

Looks like polls (and bookies) were way off the mark in DBS: Andrews was round 1/8 and Creighton not much shorter, now seems like neither will be elected...

Zaph

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Looks like polls (and bookies) were way off the mark in DBS: Andrews was round 1/8 and Creighton not much shorter, now seems like neither will be elected...

Same in Dublin West. Donnelly (SF) was 1/100 last week, Now it looks like he could be beaten out of it by Joan Burton and Ruth Coppinger. On the plus side, it would mean no SF TD here. On the down side we'd still have Coppinger. Can't win really.

K-9

McConologue FF is polling very well in Donegal but the tallies are mostly Inishowen, Letterkenny and Milford in the old NE constituency.

MacLochlain SF and McHugh not polling great so far.

Pringle Independent will start showing when the old SW constituency comes in, same with Pearse Doherty who is picking up votes all over the county.

Looks like 1 FF, 1SF with the last 3 seats between FG, SF, FF and Pringle.

foggy_lad

FF set to win 3 of 5 seats in Carlow/Kilkenny with FG possibly getting none:D

BoJack Horseman

With the Wicklow tally now 100% complete, the 5 leaders are:

Donnelly-SD
Brady-SF
Harris-FG
Casey-FF
Doyle-FG

Donnelly will exceed the quota comfortably with 14,000 FPV

FF look safe for a seat sadly, but they are actually well down on the national exit poll garnering 14% FPV

Labour are extinct, the rest of the left & indies are nowhere.

Billy Timmons looked good at first, but the later tallies had nothing for him.... he's in 6th place.
Re

eagle eye

Roscommon/East Galway


Denis Naughten(Ind) will get in on the first count with an estimated surplus of 2200 votes. The distribution of his surplus could well decide who gets the third seat.

It's a close race right now between Eugene Murphy(FF) and Maura Hopkins(FG) for that third seat with less than one hundred votes between them. It is a two horse race unless the SF candidate lagging some way behind suddenly becomes very transfer friendly which is unlikely.

Nobody has any clue right now what way his surplus will go, he is ex-Fine Gael but his votes includes a huge anti-FG vote over the closure of the A&E in Roscommon.

The second seat will go to Michael Fitzmaurice(Ind).

K-9

What other sitting TD's are in Renua, Timmons, Lucinda?

Donegal looks like McConologue FF will top the poll and reach the quota.

Pearse Doherty and then Pat the Cope for FF.

McHugh FG. Pringle slightly ahead of MacLochlain SF.

I'd suspect transfers from running mates should make it 2FF,2SF and 1FG.

BoJack Horseman

K-9 wrote: »

What other sitting TD's are in Renua, Timmons, Lucinda?

Terrance Flanagan - Dublin bay north

glued

Kildare South:

Looking like Martin Heydon (FG) and Sean O'Fearghail (FF) will retain their seats along with Cllr Fiona O'Loughlin (FF) also getting elected.

mansize

Side note: it's looks like 67% of politicians in Offaly will be Women!!!

1 FF 1 FG 1 SF (TBD)

nice_guy80

I'll be livid if FG get a seat in Roscommon

points to the two candidate strategy of FF and the short memories of people towards FG

Loafing Oaf

To paraphrase the mighty Blackadder, it looks like the voters of Mayo have told Michelle Mulherin to fornicate off.:p

Inquitus

Looks like its all over for James Reilly in Fingal, the AAA lad who go eliminated last went heavily for Louise O'Reilly for SF. FF's Lorriaine Clifford-Lee is next to be eliminated and Reilly will need to pick up a substantial amount of her transfers which is hard to see. 2/3 of the below get elected, Clifford-Lee has 5595 to distribute.

BRENDAN RYAN , LAB
+630=8424
LOUISE O'REILLY , SF
+1446=7911
JAMES REILLY , FG
+207=5756

Elemonator

Clare Daly got in for Dublin Fingal. Absolute disaster.

nice_guy80

No FG td in Roscommon

great to see them punished for the lies over the hospital

Inquitus

Elemonator wrote: »

Clare Daly got in for Dublin Fingal. Absolute disaster.

She's a shoe in everytime, I don't like her, but she has a hell of a presence locally and she'll stay in the dail until she stops running.

Lisha

Cork North West

2FF and 1 FG in.

I'm a little bit surprised Aine Collins lost her seat.
I thought John Paul o Shea would get in. Apparently he lost out by about 250 votes.

2FF I'm disgusted really

PopePalpatine

Inquitus wrote: »

Looks like its all over for James Reilly in Fingal, the AAA lad who go eliminated last went heavily for Louise O'Reilly for SF. FF's Lorriaine Clifford-Lee is next to be eliminated and Reilly will need to pick up a substantial amount of her transfers which is hard to see. 2/3 of the below get elected, Clifford-Lee has 5595 to distribute.

BRENDAN RYAN , LAB
+630=8424
LOUISE O'REILLY , SF
+1446=7911
JAMES REILLY , FG
+207=5756

I have to wonder what's the logic of someone giving a 1st preference to an AAA candidate and their next one to FG...

Inquitus

PopePalpatine wrote: »

I have to wonder what's the logic of someone giving a 1st preference to an AAA candidate and their next one to FG...

You and me both!

Badabing

Full recount in dsw after Zappone took the last seat, fine gael got the lawyers involved with only 150 odd votes between the last 2 candidates, can't see it changing but you never know. Big surprise lahart topped the poll no one saw that happening.

gandalf

Badabing wrote: »

Full recount in dsw after Zappone took the last seat, fine gael got the lawyers involved with only 150 odd votes between the last 2 candidates, can't see it changing but you never know.

Not surprised given the personalities involved that they will try every dirty trick in the book at this stage

Big surprise lahart topped the poll no one saw that happening.

Not a surprise to me, this constituency had 2 FF seats in the past. I hoped they wouldn't get back in but looking around the country it appears people have forgotten what they did to us!

bren2001

The final seat in Dublin Bay North has been impossible to call. Cian O'Callaghan's firsts were literally everywhere but there is a swing to Power and Broughan in the transfers, not Aodhan oddly. Not enough for Power to catch McGrath though so she will most likely be eliminated next. She *should* transfer to Broughan which means Lyons elimination will decide the 5th seat between Broughan and McGrath.

Other 4 are 1. Bruton (confirmed) 2. Haughey (all but confirmed) 3. Mitchell 4. O'Riordain (not a certainty at all)

EDIT: O'Riordain looking like he did get a big transfer from O'Callaghan, not official yet though.

xOxSinéadxOx

Glad I went down as far as 8 in dublin bay north when voting, probably should have went further though :pac:

Lockstep

Galway West returned O Cuív (FF, Grealish (Ind, ex-PD), Connolly (Ind, ex-Lab), Kyne (FG) and Naughton (FG)

The Labour vote collapsed: despite topping the poll in 2011 with 12%, Nolan got just 5% this time around. Likewise, Sinn Féin lost out on a seat despite seeming like a shoe-in: Senator O'Clochartaigh did well in first preferences (9%) but lost out on transfers resulting in FG taking two seats.

Lavinia

Dublin Bay North is still recounting it seems... happens to be mine... :rolleyes:

TCDStudent1

Lockstep wrote: »

Galway West returned O Cuív (FF, Grealish (Ind, ex-PD), Connolly (Ind, ex-Lab), Kyne (FG) and Naughton (FG)

The Labour vote collapsed: despite topping the poll in 2011 with 12%, Nolan got just 5% this time around. Likewise, Sinn Féin lost out on a seat despite seeming like a shoe-in: Senator O'Clochartaigh did well in first preferences (9%) but lost out on transfers resulting in FG taking two seats.

I wonder how labour would've done if Michael d still had his seat there.

bren2001

Lavinia wrote: »

Dublin Bay North is still recounting it seems... happens to be mine... :rolleyes:

Still recounting? They only started about 20 minutes ago. It'll take a few hours to do the recount!

Lavinia

bren2001 wrote: »

Still recounting? They only started about 20 minutes ago. It'll take a few hours to do the recount!

Yes it will.. What I meant is counting and recounting so still no results for the other 4 seats... Sorry if I was not clear : )

bren2001

Power has reduced the gap from 67 to 41 on Broughan after his votes were checked. Doubt we will finish up by tonight.

Sleepy

Disappointed but not at all surprised that Power can't take her loss with dignity. Suppose she wouldn't be in the race at all if she had that grace...

bren2001

Sleepy wrote: »

Disappointed but not at all surprised that Power can't take her loss with dignity. Suppose she wouldn't be in the race at all if she had that grace...

If she can claw her way back and not get eliminated next, she has a real chance of getting elected. McGrath won't transfer too well from Broughan and the large voting areas for Lyons were: Harmonstown, Kilmore, Aryfield and Grange (Raheny). Again, McGrath unlikely to gain much from there.

Whether Tommy or Power (or Lyons) can pick up enough is hard to call. I was critical of Powers after she failed to secure the FF nomination but I find it harsh to criticize her here.

Loafing Oaf

Sleepy wrote: »

Disappointed but not at all surprised that Power can't take her loss with dignity. Suppose she wouldn't be in the race at all if she had that grace...

Was there any talk of her hooking up with the SDs? Would seem like a natural for them and would probably have picked up a few more seats...

Lockstep

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Was there any talk of her hooking up with the SDs? Would seem like a natural for them and would probably have picked up a few more seats...

Probably not: they already had O'Callaghan in that constituency. Ending up with both would mean shafting one, although O'Callaghan's strong transfers to Power (only slightly less than O Riordan) show the closeness there.

Sleepy

bren2001 wrote: »

If she can claw her way back and not get eliminated next, she has a real chance of getting elected. McGrath won't transfer too well from Broughan and the large voting areas for Lyons were: Harmonstown, Kilmore, Aryfield and Grange (Raheny). Again, McGrath unlikely to gain much from there.

Whether Tommy or Power (or Lyons) can pick up enough is hard to call. I was critical of Powers after she failed to secure the FF nomination but I find it harsh to criticize her here.

If it were a closer margin I'd agree that the recount seems fair but from what I can see, the margin is too high for a recount to reverse it?

esforum

we voted in a whingy hole who has achieved absolutey nothing on either a local or national level which just goes to show, people are morons

K-9

Who was that?

bren2001

Sleepy wrote: »

If it were a closer margin I'd agree that the recount seems fair but from what I can see, the margin is too high for a recount to reverse it?

Down from 67->41 after looking at Broughans. Factoring in the first count took a little over 12 hours, the subsequent counts took around 12 hours and the required error is <1%. Added to that the slightly higher spoiled votes of 708 and that each "valid" ballot paper is being scrutinized by everyone, its not a crazy number. Unlikely of course.

Lyons, Broughan and Powers have all been checked. Current difference is 52.

EDIT: Seemingly, Power wants to continue the count. Nobody else sees the point.

EDIT: Also talk of a court challenge over the disputed votes.

EDIT: RTE twitter saying difference is 41 (unconfirmed) after the 3 were rechecked. I'm being told 52. Numbers are irrelevant, very unlikely Power can make it up.

Sleepy

She's of the era of young Fianna Failer where they were coming up at a time when the party had held power for so long they believed they had a god given right to it so it's not surprising to see her throwing a tantrum like this tbh.

Ciaran_B

There's a fight to the death for the last seat in my constituency - Dublin South Central. 12 counts so far I think. Might end up in court.

bren2001

Another recount tomorrow!

gandalf

Recount finished in DSW, Zappone gets the last seat.