Opinion Polls

Godge

Now that we are getting close to a general election, the electorate will begin to focus on who they wish to see elected and opinion polls will start to pick up trends and changes that will influence the outcome of the election. Rather than have a new thread every time there is an opinion poll, maybe we should have just one thread devoted to discussing the opinion polls and what they are showing.

Today sees the release of another MRBI poll in the Irish Times which sees the parties as follows:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-fine-gael-on-course-to-be-biggest-party-by-far-after-election-1.2444074

FG 30%
SF 21%
FF 19%
Ind 12%
Lab 7%
Ind All 3%
Green 2%
PBP/AAA 2%
Renua 2%
SD 2%

Interesting points:
- FG is now above 30% in the last three polls across three different polling companies which suggests that the increase in popularity is real.
- Labour remains in real trouble.
- SF are the least favoured coalition partner of all parties
- Smaller parties will need concentrated support to win seats

Other useful links for this thread:

MRBI site:

http://www.ipsosmrbi.com/

Millward Brown:

http://www.millwardbrown.com/subsites/ireland/insights/latest-opinion-polls

Red C:

http://www.redcresearch.ie/polling/

Adrian Kavanagh's analysis:

http://adriankavanaghelections.org/

Irish Polling Report (site not updated since 2013 but twitter feed is):

https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/

Red Kev

I'm just happy to finally see a breakdown of the Independents/Others group. It infuriates me that the papers/radio/RTE can't be bothered doing that simple task.

Godge

Red Kev wrote: »

I'm just happy to finally see a breakdown of the Independents/Others group. It infuriates me that the papers/radio/RTE can't be bothered doing that simple task.

It is usually buried somewhere in the data produced by the companies. Even if it is not mentioned by RTE in the future I will try and update it here when the full poll data becomes available via their websites, usually about three-four days after the newspaper has exclusive use of it.

Peregrinus

Red Kev wrote: »

I'm just happy to finally see a breakdown of the Independents/Others group. It infuriates me that the papers/radio/RTE can't be bothered doing that simple task.

The breakdown is deceptive, I'm afraid. The margin of error in the poll is plus or minus 2.8%, which means that the c. 2% figures for the various different minor parties basically tell us nothing reliable. The 11% Ind/others vote is scattered amount the parties mentioned, and none of them stands out as commanding a significant chunk of it. That's all the breakdown really tells us, and we knew that even before we had the breakdown.

demfad

From that Poll and given the hostility towards SF as coalition partner (ruling out SF/FF/Lab coalition), the only possible Government looks to be FF/FG. That's assuming both FF drop their strategy of not going into government as the smaller partner and FG agree.
It doesn't look likely but it does look the most likley. Hung Dail?

Godge

demfad wrote: »

From that Poll and given the hostility towards SF as coalition partner (ruling out SF/FF/Lab coalition), the only possible Government looks to be FF/FG. That's assuming both FF drop their strategy of not going into government as the smaller partner and FG agree.
It doesn't look likely but it does look the most likley. Hung Dail?

(1) Most polls have a margin of error.
(2) Election campaigns have an effect on voting intentions.

Taking a minimalist approach, I ask myself would a coalition be possible if two parties saw a 3% increase in their support. That is very possible and some elections have seen much bigger changes from this distance out.

Looking at the poll, SF on 24% and FF on 22% would give 46% and close, if not there to an overall majority.

Similarly, FG on 33% and Labour on 10% would give them 43% allowing the coalition to be returned with the support of a smaller party or a few independents (Lowry etc.).

Obviously the two scenarios could not both happen, but one could.

Godge

New poll by Red C out today.

FG 28
FF 20
SF 18
Ind 13
Lab 9
AAA/PBP 4
SD 2
Green 2
Ind All 2
Renua 1

demfad

Godge wrote: »

(1) Most polls have a margin of error.
(2) Election campaigns have an effect on voting intentions.

Taking a minimalist approach, I ask myself would a coalition be possible if two parties saw a 3% increase in their support. That is very possible and some elections have seen much bigger changes from this distance out.

Looking at the poll, SF on 24% and FF on 22% would give 46% and close, if not there to an overall majority.

Similarly, FG on 33% and Labour on 10% would give them 43% allowing the coalition to be returned with the support of a smaller party or a few independents (Lowry etc.).

Obviously the two scenarios could not both happen, but one could.

I was just basing the assertion on the opinion poll, and agreed that things may and will probably change.

I don't see SF able to convert all their support to seats and I see FF being the second largest party. Also SF and FF will have to gain most of any additional support off the other which will not help the combined total much. Lab wont go below the 7% you'd imagine.

I'd see Labour finishing 9-10% and I have a feeling that FG will continue to grow as they benefit most from the upturn (if it is sustained that far). FG/Lab most likley outcome, but a distance to travel based on the poll.

Godge

demfad wrote: »

I was just basing the assertion on the opinion poll, and agreed that things may and will probably change.

I don't see SF able to convert all their support to seats and I see FF being the second largest party. Also SF and FF will have to gain most of any additional support off the other which will not help the combined total much. Lab wont go below the 7% you'd imagine.

I'd see Labour finishing 9-10% and I have a feeling that FG will continue to grow as they benefit most from the upturn (if it is sustained that far). FG/Lab most likley outcome, but a distance to travel based on the poll.

I agree with that analysis, I suspect that Paddy Power do too, because they haven't offered FG/Lab/Any Other as an option on their website for over a year which is the most likely outcome.

demfad

Godge wrote: »

I agree with that analysis, I suspect that Paddy Power do too, because they haven't offered FG/Lab/Any Other as an option on their website for over a year which is the most likely outcome.

Current betting

FG/FF is 11/8
FG/Lab is 5/2
FG/Lab/SD 14/1
FG/Lab/Green 20/1
FG/Lab/Renua 22/1

FF don't want to go in as a minority party. A FF/FG government could be the salvation of Labour. Anything could happen in opposition, but being the second biggest party or at least significantly larger at the following election becomes a distinct possibility.

FF/FG is massively risky for FF but they could potentially spin it to their advantage by sitting just left of FG in policy.

Godge

demfad wrote: »

Current betting

FG/FF is 11/8
FG/Lab is 5/2
FG/Lab/SD 14/1
FG/Lab/Green 20/1
FG/Lab/Renua 22/1

FF don't want to go in as a minority party. A FF/FG government could be the salvation of Labour. Anything could happen in opposition, but being the second biggest party or at least significantly larger at the following election becomes a distinct possibility.

FF/FG is massively risky for FF but they could potentially spin it to their advantage by sitting just left of FG in policy.

They still don't offer FG/Lab/Any Other or FG/Lab/Ross Alliance or FG/Lab/Independents

Godge

Party | June 15 | July 15 | Sep 15 | Oct 15 | Nov 15 | Dec 15
FG|28|25|28|30|31|28
SF|18|18|16|16|18|18
FF|20|18|18|20|19|20
Lab|7|8|10|7|7|9
Ind|23|25|24|20|14|13
PBP/AAA |-|1|-|1|4|4
Renua|1|1|-|2|1|1
Greens|2|2|2|2|2|2
SD|-|2|-|1|3|3
Ind All|-|-|-|-|-|2
Oth. Party|1|-|2|1|1|-



To get a look at trends, I have put up the polls from Red C over the last half-year. Using the one company means any methodical differences should be factored out.

No real trends are evident, dip in government support over the summer is now fully recovered. Separation out of independents seems to have got better - not sure whether this is something that changed in the questions or voters getting more certain of who they are voting for (will look at the RedC website and see do they mention anything).

First poll of the new Year will be interesting.

oscarBravo

Visually:

OMD

The big (and obvious) question is how support is spread and how will transfers work. Looking at FF and SF at the moment both are on around 18-20%. However that small difference could make all the difference.

At the last election FF got 17.4% of the vote but only 20 seats. Labour got 19.4%, so only 2% more than FF but got 37 seats.
Could the same happen SF in 2016 and they only get 20 seats?


Similarly in 2002 Labour got only 10.8% of the vote but managed to get 21 seats. So they got 7 points less than FF got in 2011 but secured 1 seat more.
In the same election the PDs vote fell from 4.7% to 4% but they doubled their seats from 4 to 8, yet SF increased their vote to 6.5% yet only managed 5 seats.
Predictions of labour being wiped out may be a little wide of the mark.

Quin_Dub

OMD wrote: »

The big (and obvious) question is how support is spread and how will transfers work. Looking at FF and SF at the moment both are on around 18-20%. However that small difference could make all the difference.

At the last election FF got 17.4% of the vote but only 20 seats. Labour got 19.4%, so only 2% more than FF but got 37 seats.
Could the same happen SF in 2016 and they only get 20 seats?


Similarly in 2002 Labour got only 10.8% of the vote but managed to get 21 seats. So they got 7 points less than FF got in 2011 but secured 1 seat more.
In the same election the PDs vote fell from 4.7% to 4% but they doubled their seats from 4 to 8, yet SF increased their vote to 6.5% yet only managed 5 seats.
Predictions of labour being wiped out may be a little wide of the mark.

I tend to agree with you..

Below is the transfer rate to/from the various parties in 2011

Party FF  FG  Lab  GP  SF  Non-trans 
FF 21% 17% n.a. 9% 36%
FG 25% 28% 2.70% 5.30% 23%
Lab 11% 36% 2% 9.40% 20%
GP 15% 34% 22% 1.90% 15%
SF 11% 20% 23% 0.90% 28%


Labour will punch above their 1st preference levels with strong transfers helping them and FG pick up extra seats here and there..

SF will struggle and it's also likely that SF and FF will take votes off each other outside of Dublin so the net result in terms of forming a Government will be somewhat neutralised.


As it stands right now I see FG/Lab being somewhere in the high single figures short of a majority(7-9 seats) with an SF/FF alternative quite a way back (at least 20 seats short).

So for me as it stands right now it will be an FG/Lab + others government - Can't see it being Renua as that would effectively end the party. but there should be enough Independents to get them over the line..

demfad

OMD wrote: »

The big (and obvious) question is how support is spread and how will transfers work. Looking at FF and SF at the moment both are on around 18-20%. However that small difference could make all the difference.

At the last election FF got 17.4% of the vote but only 20 seats. Labour got 19.4%, so only 2% more than FF but got 37 seats.
Could the same happen SF in 2016 and they only get 20 seats?


Similarly in 2002 Labour got only 10.8% of the vote but managed to get 21 seats. So they got 7 points less than FF got in 2011 but secured 1 seat more.
In the same election the PDs vote fell from 4.7% to 4% but they doubled their seats from 4 to 8, yet SF increased their vote to 6.5% yet only managed 5 seats.
Predictions of labour being wiped out may be a little wide of the mark.

Remember that FF were toxic in 2011 which would have skewed the transfers a little. I see them making some of the ground back lost in transfers lat time.

That said SF also have some toxic anti-value due to connections with PIRA.
A similar share of the poll to FF last time might only garner a similar number of seats. As I said I dont think FF will be as toxic to transfers this time which leads me to believe they will be the second largest party.

If FF don't get into power and become the largest opposition then they can focus on getting their vote into the thirties and challenging FG again.

Otherwise they need a re-invention.

Two Problems there:
1. FF's membership does not constitute a modern egalatarian republican party (where they would need to go to re-invent IMO). They are too conservative.
2. SF are already positioned genuinely or otherwise on that perch

Godge

demfad wrote: »

Remember that FF were toxic in 2011 which would have skewed the transfers a little. I see them making some of the ground back lost in transfers lat time.

That said SF also have some toxic anti-value due to connections with PIRA.
A similar share of the poll to FF last time might only garner a similar number of seats. As I said I dont think FF will be as toxic to transfers this time which leads me to believe they will be the second largest party.

If FF don't get into power and become the largest opposition then they can focus on getting their vote into the thirties and challenging FG again.

Otherwise they need a re-invention.

Two Problems there:
1. FF's membership does not constitute a modern egalatarian republican party (where they would need to go to re-invent IMO). They are too conservative.
2. SF are already positioned genuinely or otherwise on that perch

It does seem like there are three blocks of votes.

(1) Those with a republican tinge who mostly have centralised populist views. SF and FF are competing for these votes

(2) Those with a slightly right of centre economic view and diverse social views. FG and Renua territory

(3) Those with a left-wing view. Labour, PBP/AAA, SF (and previously under Bertie FF) are competing for these votes

In the long run the FF strategy of competing and appealing to two of the three blocs was a successful one. Whether SF can successfully do the same (I doubt it) will be one of the interesting stories of the next ten years.

demfad

Godge wrote: »

It does seem like there are three blocks of votes.

(1) Those with a republican tinge who mostly have centralised populist views. SF and FF are competing for these votes

(2) Those with a slightly right of centre economic view and diverse social views. FG and Renua territory

(3) Those with a left-wing view. Labour, PBP/AAA, SF (and previously under Bertie FF) are competing for these votes

In the long run the FF strategy of competing and appealing to two of the three blocs was a successful one. Whether SF can successfully do the same (I doubt it) will be one of the interesting stories of the next ten years.

I would suggest that many of the social views of the electorate are to the left of the Dail. The referendum on marriage equality highlighted this.
That is the position FF could have taken as a Republican party. The membership does not reflect this.
There is space for a large party with left of centre economic and liberal social policy as the electorate gets more representative with the advent of quotas etc.

An Ciarraioch

Quin_Dub wrote: »

I tend to agree with you..

Below is the transfer rate to/from the various parties in 2011

Party FF  FG  Lab  GP  SF  Non-trans 
FF 21% 17% n.a. 9% 36%
FG 25% 28% 2.70% 5.30% 23%
Lab 11% 36% 2% 9.40% 20%
GP 15% 34% 22% 1.90% 15%
SF 11% 20% 23% 0.90% 28%


Labour will punch above their 1st preference levels with strong transfers helping them and FG pick up extra seats here and there..

SF will struggle and it's also likely that SF and FF will take votes off each other outside of Dublin so the net result in terms of forming a Government will be somewhat neutralised.


As it stands right now I see FG/Lab being somewhere in the high single figures short of a majority(7-9 seats) with an SF/FF alternative quite a way back (at least 20 seats short).

So for me as it stands right now it will be an FG/Lab + others government - Can't see it being Renua as that would effectively end the party. but there should be enough Independents to get them over the line..

Wouldn't rule out FG-SF if the numbers add up, and Labour too far adrift, but Adams would presumably have to step down in that instance. Agree Renua would be destroyed as a junior partner, but SDs in even more precarious position, as not only would being a coalition partner halt their growth, but would also be made redundant if Labour join them on the opposition benches.

Godge

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Wouldn't rule out FG-SF if the numbers add up, and Labour too far adrift, but Adams would presumably have to step down in that instance. Agree Renua would be destroyed as a junior partner, but SDs in even more precarious position, as not only would being a coalition partner halt their growth, but would also be made redundant if Labour join them on the opposition benches.

A second election is more likely than FG-SF.

It is impossible to conceive.

Quin_Dub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Wouldn't rule out FG-SF if the numbers add up, and Labour too far adrift, but Adams would presumably have to step down in that instance. Agree Renua would be destroyed as a junior partner, but SDs in even more precarious position, as not only would being a coalition partner halt their growth, but would also be made redundant if Labour join them on the opposition benches.

Godge wrote: »

A second election is more likely than FG-SF.

It is impossible to conceive.

Have to say I agree - of all the groupings that might occur, that is by far the least likely.

Think it would be utter folly for either party in terms of their grass roots support.

charlie14

Godge wrote: »

A second election is more likely than FG-SF.

It is impossible to conceive.

Politics has a habit of mating strange bedfellows when the need arises.

FG went into coalition with Democratic Left who were nothing more than a SF off-shoot, and hasn`t your party, the Greens, said they were approached by FG in 2007 to sound out SF as possible coalition partners ?

Godge

charlie14 wrote: »

Politics has a habit of mating strange bedfellows when the need arises.

FG went into coalition with Democratic Left who were nothing more than a SF off-shoot, and hasn`t your party, the Greens, said they were approached by FG in 2007 to sound out SF as possible coalition partners ?

Of course politics makes for strange bedfellows but this is not 2007.

charlie14

Godge wrote: »

Of course politics makes for strange bedfellows but this is not 2007.

FG were making the same noises about Democratic Left`s credentials prior to 94 as they are now about SF, but still went into coalition with them when the numbers were short.

As far as I recall, haven`t the Greens said that one of the FG TDs that approached them to sound out SF in 2007 with a view to forming a coalition government, was none other than Enda Kenny ?

Regardless of the year or the bedfellows, when it comes to holding on to power nothing surprises me anymore what a party will hash together
- particulary after the votes are counted - "for the good of the country".

Godge

charlie14 wrote: »

FG were making the same noises about Democratic Left`s credentials prior to 94 as they are now about SF, but still went into coalition with them when the numbers were short.

As far as I recall, haven`t the Greens said that one of the FG TDs that approached them to sound out SF in 2007 with a view to forming a coalition government, was none other than Enda Kenny ?

Regardless of the year or the bedfellows, when it comes to holding on to power nothing surprises me anymore what a party will hash together
- particulary after the votes are counted - "for the good of the country".

This is 2015 not 2007.

Godge

We are now into election mode. The first MRBI poll of the campaign is out:


FG|28
FF|21
SF|19
Ind|8
Lab|7
AAA|4
Ind All|3
SD|2
Green|2
Renua|1
Others|2

There is still 3% unaccounted for. They put Independents/Others at 25% but when it is broken down it only adds up to 22%. See the article for yourself.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/new-irish-times-ipsos-mrbi-poll-brings-bad-news-for-coalition-1.2521723

The core vote figures include 22% undecided. A lot to play for.

I would love a statisticians view on this but my belief is that when you are dealing with a number of parties (SD, Green, AAA, Renua etc.) that have support in or around the margin of error, the poll becomes statistically unreliable. Would this be right?

gandalf

Based on that poll and depending on how many sympathetic Independents get in a FF & SF Government is a possibility.

The key to this election is how much of that Independent figure turns into seats and the performance of parties like the Social Democrats and Renua.

Quin_Dub

Absolutely...

It's all about where the independents transfer - Very few will get over the line to take a seat , but it's the distribution of their votes that will have a huge impact..

Are independent voters going to transfer to other independents or will they transfer to the larger parties?

An Ciarraioch

Godge wrote: »

We are now into election mode. The first MRBI poll of the campaign is out:


FG|28
FF|21
SF|19
Ind|8
Lab|7
AAA|4
Ind All|3
SD|2
Green|2
Renua|1
Others|2

There is still 3% unaccounted for. They put Independents/Others at 25% but when it is broken down it only adds up to 22%. See the article for yourself.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/new-irish-times-ipsos-mrbi-poll-brings-bad-news-for-coalition-1.2521723

The core vote figures include 22% undecided. A lot to play for.

I would love a statisticians view on this but my belief is that when you are dealing with a number of parties (SD, Green, AAA, Renua etc.) that have support in or around the margin of error, the poll becomes statistically unreliable. Would this be right?

Yes, for the smaller parties, the Paddy Power constituency pages is the best gauge of individual candidates' prospects.

Quin_Dub

The demographic breakdown here makes for interesting reading.

FF has a serious problem in Dublin - Less than half the support of the other groups (except Labour) in the Capital...

Dob74

Definitely right there. Plus add the fact that they only have candidates in a handful of constituency . That would have thrown the numbers off as well.
Personally must of the parties appear the same including sf. AAA will pick up a lot of seats. Mick Barry in Cork nc looks odds on to win a seat.

K-9

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The demographic breakdown here makes for interesting reading.

FF has a serious problem in Dublin - Less than half the support of the other groups (except Labour) in the Capital...

Rural areas will be their main target, constituencies they've nobody in and trying to increase 1 seat to 2.

charlie14

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The demographic breakdown here makes for interesting reading.

FF has a serious problem in Dublin - Less than half the support of the other groups (except Labour) in the Capital...

If these figures are accurate come polling for Dublin, then Labour really are looking at a wipeout.

Godge

http://www.redcresearch.ie/ensuring-accurate-polls/


This is a very interesting article around how RedC try to ensure polls are accurate.

One thing strikes me. Independent candidates benefit disproportionately in the process from core to excluding undecided voters. If they are wrong on this (and I am not saying one way or another) the RedC polls will overestimate independent support. will be interesting to check come results day.

Godge

https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/


https://adriankavanaghelections.org/


These are two good websites for those interested in opinion polls.

An Ciarraioch

Godge wrote: »

https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/


https://adriankavanaghelections.org/


These are two good websites for those interested in opinion polls.

And the first link is the only one that gives projections for the minor parties, whether accurate or otherwise, so very useful.

An Ciarraioch

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And the first link is the only one that gives projections for the minor parties, whether accurate or otherwise, so very useful.

On today's poll, it suggests:

FG 58
FF 32
SF 26
Ind 22
Lab 12
AAA 4
SD 3
Green 1
Renua 0

Quin_Dub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

On today's poll, it suggests:

FG 58
FF 32
SF 26
Ind 22
Lab 12
AAA 4
SD 3
Green 1
Renua 0

For Renua , I think Creighton is safe enough , the other 2 incumbents however are under pressure.. So Renua will have 1 seat , possibly 2 .

That could be significant as Renua would not support an FF/SF option , they'd either support FG or abstain.. so that shift of a few seats could be significant..

An Ciarraioch

Quin_Dub wrote: »

For Renua , I think Creighton is safe enough , the other 2 incumbents however are under pressure.. So Renua will have 1 seat , possibly 2 .

That could be significant as Renua would not support an FF/SF option , they'd either support FG or abstain.. so that shift of a few seats could be significant..

Yes, even the site operator, when questioned on Twitter, said he suspected some of Lucinda's support is claiming to be Independent to pollsters, which would make it 21 and 1.

Quin_Dub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Yes, even the site operator, when questioned on Twitter, said he suspected some of Lucinda's support is claiming to be Independent to pollsters, which would make it 21 and 1.

There's definitely a lot of soft support for other parties hiding in the Independent bucket.

If for no other reason than most of them won't get elected so it'll be all about who they transfer to.

charlie14

Quin_Dub wrote: »

There's definitely a lot of soft support for other parties hiding in the Independent bucket.

If for no other reason than most of them won't get elected so it'll be all about who they transfer to.

Many of them I`d imagine will be disillusioned Labour supporters, so anybody`s guess where their transfers will go, but mainly left (other than Labour) imo.

Then again quite a few of them could perhaps be Hogan`s "borrowed" vote from FF 2011.

ninebeanrows

My opinion on the final result is as follows.

The most important poll...

FG: 32%
FF: 25%
SF: 13%
LAB: 7%
SD: 4%
GREEN: 3%
OTHERS: 16%

charlie14

Weathercheck wrote: »

My opinion on the final result is as follows.

The most important poll...

FG: 32%
FF: 25%
SF: 13%
LAB: 7%
SD: 4%
GREEN: 3%
OTHERS: 16%

The really inportant poll...

FG: 25.5%
FF: 24.3%
SF: 13.8%
Lab: 6.6%
SD: 3.0%
Green: 2.7%
AAA/PBP: 3.9%
Renua: 2.2%
IA: 4.2%
Ind: 13.0%
Other: 0.7%

An Ciarraioch

Is this the first time a party has registered "less than 1%" in an opinion poll?

http://www.businesspost.ie/breaking-boost-for-ff-as-party-draws-level-with-fg/

L1011

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Is this the first time a party has registered "less than 1%" in an opinion poll?

http://www.businesspost.ie/breaking-boost-for-ff-as-party-draws-level-with-fg/

PDs and Greens have both been reported as such within the last decade.

An Ciarraioch

Red C:

FF 29% (+3)
FG 26% (-)
SF 13% (-2)
Ind 12% (-3)
Lab 6% (-)
AAA-PBP 5% (-)
Soc Dems 4% (-)
Greens 4% (+2)
Renua 1% (-)
Others 1% (-)

Weakest SF figures in recent years.

L1011

B&A have a similar poll out but it continues to report a (sizeable) Workers Party figure. That alone makes the poll utterly suspect.