December 2015 Boards forecast contest -- note entry deadline moved up to 0900h 1st

M.T. Cranium

The IMT for 1st of December was 10.1 C. For Shannon it was over 13.6, about the normal mean temperature there in early June or mid to late September.

Rikand

Should have went for 200%+ for PRC

M.T. Cranium

Well, with the ever-popular minimum progression rule, you should do fine as you and Jpmarn have the highest predictions (140%), so you'll probably have 14/15 on that and everyone else will get a score in order of finish. But I agree that it will probably soar into that 200+ range looking at how much more is coming this week.

pauldry

Rainfall might be 140 percent ALREADY

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

sryanbruen ___ 6.4 __ 14.3 __ -4.2 __ 115 __ 111 __ 10.1, 2.9 _ no snow

Should of had it like 140% of rainfall

M.T. Cranium

This may surprise you a bit, after 5 days (and realizing there was a small amount of rain early 6th) we are below 70% of the monthly amounts so far, although that would represent something like 400% of normal for the first five days.

December is quite a wet month so nobody's that much into the above normal range yet, many of our eleven stations are around half or so.

If it doesn't get too wet Monday or Thursday, we may not require the minimum progression rule after all. But it does look good to be at 140% for now.

Jpmarn

I imagine that some of the stations has already the normal entire quota of rain for the month of December.

M.T. Cranium

After first week ...

IMT was 8.9 C with Shannon over 10 C.

PRC estimated 320% (Ballyhaise did not report 7th, took the rest of its data and estimated to include)

-- that PRC now represents a guaranteed 73% of monthly precip even if rest of month is dry, or 110% if rest of month is 50% normal (etc).

SUN has been largely absent, the average for six stations so far is 21% of normal.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT after eleven days was 8.1 (8.14) C and will likely edge up all week.

The PRC has now (with today's estimated average of 30 mm at the eleven stations) reached a point where it guarantees an above normal end value and would give an end result of 150% even if the next twenty days manage just half normal.

SUN might have improved a bit, I mean it was out on Friday in places.

Joe Public

The sun on Friday last must count for something! :-)

pauldry

Oh there IS a sun.

Must be a 1per cent of normal.

I was wondering if there was a way of incorpoating a wettest day date and station into monthly comp since it rains like fluck in this cuontry of ours.

IMT may become redundant soon and every month will have 13c imt

Tae laidir

Christmas Party on Thursday night.
Damn.....Missed it!

M.T. Cranium

Min of -3.1 C was recorded on Sunday at Markree (after the snow on Saturday, Ballyhaise also got down below -2.5). That could hold up now but maybe not.

Rikand

Britain set for possibly record high December temps on Thursday. With the high score I bet on, could we be on for the same here.

According to bbc weather this morning

M.T. Cranium

Looks like an exciting finish now. Good luck with the -7 MIN.

Rikand

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Looks like an exciting finish now. Good luck with the -7 MIN.

Go big or go home as they say

M.T. Cranium

Updates after second week (8th to 14th) ...

IMT is on 7.8 C after the week averaged 6.74, northern stations were dragged down by the snow and frost on the weekend, Shannon has remained over 9 C throughout.
The IMT seems likely to drift up into the low 8's this coming week but may then head back down into the 7's -- at least we can hope so.

PRC is now at 273% after a week (all hands on deck this time) at 226%. With today's already known amounts likely maintaining that sort of average to the mid-point of the month, we can then say that the month would finish at 135% even if it went completely dry in the second half, or would reach 185% if precip were to be exactly normal rest of the month (which is roughly how the models appear).

Meanwhile, SUN has improved considerably after a week that managed 87% of the rather feeble December normals (these appear to be under 2h per day) and so now the month is sitting at 54% of normal. I think this will continue to improve slightly each week.

As already reported, the MAX so far is 15.2 (Shannon 1st) and the MIN is -3.1 (Markree 13th)

pauldry

Max to be threatened this week

Min in last week

Rikand

Come on the MAX!

M.T. Cranium

A new MAX happened overnight, Malin Head of all places had 16 C at 0400h, probably 15 point something but anyway, that may not be quite the peak yet.

John mac

16 confirmed on the weather forecast this evening.

Rikand

16.x please

Bsal

16.0 on the dot.

Rikand

Bsal wrote: »

16.0 on the dot.

M.T. Cranium

If it's mild on the 25th and doesn't get really cold at any point, could see this being a huge pile-up on the final straightaway sort of finish. Just for laughs, these are raw scores of top fourteen (showing current 9/11 scores and the two low scores that can be used if December is lower). I don't think anyone below this group has a chance of overtaking based on likely scores this month.

Very interesting. These are scores with the minimum progression rule applied to IMT, MIN and PRC. Don't think we'll need to use that for MAX or SUN if my estimates are valid. IMT scores (now on 8.6 as of today) would be the same for any outcome above 7.3. PRC scores are locked and loaded. MIN scores depend on lack of significant cold later. Not very confident about no snow on 25th so you can reverse the 3s and 0s if you want to play around with my totals.

If one of the two low scores is in bold, that one is higher than the current December score estimate and goes into the total instead.

FORECASTER ___ 9/11 score __ lowest 2 _ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus __DEC __ TOTAL
___ Dec estimates _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___8.0_16.0_-3.1_200_70 __10,5 no?

JPmarn ________ 621 _______44,48 ____00*_ 04 _ 00*_ 14*_ 07__02_0__ 27 __ 669
M.T. Cranium ___ 612 _______17, 46 ___ 17*_ 09 _ 11*_ 05*_ 02__09_3__ 56 __ 668

Consensus _____ 609 _______ 55,58 ___ 11*_ 09 _ 08*_ 10*_ 05__06_3__ 52 __ 667

MrSkinner _____ 606 _______ ---,47 ___ 16*_ 08 _ 11* _ 05*_ 05__08_3__ 56 __ 662
Lumi __________601 _______53,58 ____09*_ 07 _ 13* _10*_ 05__06_3__ 53 ___ 659
dasa29 ________594 _______45,47 ____ 03*_ 00 _ 18*_ 11*_ 04__00_0__ 36 ___ 641
sunflower3 _____592 _______44,54 ____ 09*_ 05 _ 11*_ 10*_ 06__08_3__ 52 ___ 646
Schadenfreudia__589 _______36,38 ____ 14*_ 05 _ 05*_ 10*_ 06__08_3__ 51 ___ 640
Rameire _______587 _______40,46 ____ 11*_ 11 _ 13*_ 01*_ 02__03_3__ 44-3__ 633
Tae Laidir _____ 586 _______33,46 ____ 07* _ 10 _ 03*_ 12*_ 05__06_3__ 46 ___ 632
DOCARCH _____ 579 _______36,40 ____ 01*_ 11 _ 08*_ 10*_ 03__02_0__ 35 ___ 619
Rikand ________579 _______ 48,49 ____23*_ 15 _ 01*_ 14*_ 10__03_0__ 66 ___ 645
Mickger844ps___577 _______ 28,45 ____21*_ 06 _ 18*_ 03*_ 02__09_3__ 62 ___ 639
dacogawa _____ 576 _______ ---,43 ____05*_ 06 _ 03*_ 13*_ 06__04_3__ 40 ___ 619
Bsal __________575 _______ 48,50 ____ 13*_ 10 _ 15*_ 04*_ 00__05_3__ 50 ___ 625

Some of the players below Bsal appear to have higher scores than most of us, but they need almost 100 to catch the top two. Anyway, you can see that many changes in this outcome are possible if for example there is a colder spell than -3.1 especially if below -4.5, and also if Christmas Day is colder or there is snow in the northwest.

Looks to me like Jpmarn will play off his reserve score of 48 so I am going to need to find another point or two somewhere (won't bend the rules, honest). It's complicated but I figure that most scores will move together in the group just below the top two, Rikand has a better chance of overtaking us all as his numbers are more in contrast (and he has room to increase if there's cold). I think something like a reading of -6 near the end of the month plus a colder Christmas Day and snow might be enough to overcome what is now a 24 point deficit. There may be some other combinations that would work. A lot of sunshine will not help Rikand's chances.

M.T. Cranium

Update after three weeks ...

IMT climbed to 8.8 C thanks to a record-setting week at 10.6 C. The high point was the 20th with the average at 8.80, it now sits at 8.76. This week may see it sliding back towards 8.0 but anything over 7.3 will result in pretty much the same scoring thanks to the minimum progression rule and our high forecasts being lower than that. I currently estimate 8.1 as the most likely finish, 7.7 to 8.5 the range.

PRC is now "only" 225 per cent of normal as the week was a more average variety of wet, 129% of normal at the eleven stations. This now guarantees an outcome of 160% if it were to be entirely dry after today's additional known amounts. That in turn pretty much guarantees the minimum progression rule will be needed for your December PRC forecasts. I figure the actual result will be near 200%.

SUN has managed to improve to 65% after another week at 87% of normal values. This might manage to stay in a similar range and perhaps end up near 70%.

(MAX 16.0, MIN -3.1 so far)

SUN

M.T. Cranium

Dublin max and min (using the entire 24 hours to accomplish both) were 12.3 (evening) and 2.0 (around 0100h). I will seek some advice about the snowfall as all I know for certain is that no station definitely reported snow but some boards posters said it was snowing in the midnight to early morning hours in parts of the northwest, and at fairly low elevations. A minimum of -0.5 at Markree supports the idea that it may have snowed for a time.

Anyway, the temperatures can be scored as follows:

Top four will get five points each for max and min. That gives mickger844posts a perfect score of 10 as he was second highest for max (10.6) and right on the min. The other high scores for max were MrSkinner who came closest at 11.0, then MTC (with 10.2) and then tied at 10.1, sryanbruen and 200motels. For the minimum, the four closest were mick (2.0), kindredspirit (also 2.0), sunflower3 (2.3), and lostinashford (1.4). Scoring will then be by groups of four (after ties). This will give some slightly different totals than I estimated earlier in my post above to show the possible end of year finishing scores. I may revise that list in a day or two, once I reach a decision on the snow bonus. IMT is now about 8.6 C, not likely to come down anywhere near our forecast range so those scores will likely stand. SUN has shown signs of wanting to make a bit of a late upward move. No real signs of anything below
-3.1 in the days to come.

Rikand

Looks like my -7 isn't going to happen

Tae laidir

I compiled the following table from the Monthly Contests.
Interesting when read in conjunction with the excellent '2015 - The Weather Year in Review' thread.
December figures based on latest estimates.

Mth._IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN
Jan._4.8_16.2_-6.2_115_124
Feb._4.4_14.2_-7.9_080_102
Mar._6.1_14.8_-5.1_109_130
Apr._8.4_21.3_-4.0_082_147
May._9.9_20.1_-0.8_174_082
Jun._13.0_25.6_0.7_060_105
Jul.__14.0_23.8_3.1_151_085
Aug._14.0_24.2_3.5_106_100
Sep._12.2_20.3_0.8_074_095
Oct,_10.3_19.1_-2.0_055_096
Nov._8.8_19.5_-2.7_152_080
Dec._8.4_16.0_-3.1_250_067
Avg._9.5_N/A_N/A_117.3_101.1

mrskinner

You have SUN and PRC mixed up!