Heavy Rain & Continuing Flood Risk - Saturday Dec 12th, 2015

MoodeRator

The UK Met Office seem confident of snow down South HERE

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah, precip on the the 12Z ECM at 75 hours is shown as snow over Galway/Mayo on the Weather Underground.

RobertKK

If the high ground in the southern half of the country got that as snow...I could open a ski resort. They say midlands, north and west, maybe from north Kilkenny, Tipperary northwards for snow?

Though if there was heavy snow it would be even worse if it stayed on high ground and melted with heavy rain to make floods worse.

maquiladora

RobertKK wrote: »

If the high ground in the southern half of the country got that as snow...I could open a ski resort. They say midlands, north and west, maybe from north Kilkenny, Tipperary northwards for snow?

Though if there was heavy snow it would be even worse if it stayed on high ground and melted with heavy rain to make floods worse.

There will be a big temperature difference. Very mild, moist air in the south running into colder air further north. No snow in the south with these double digit figures!

Oneiric 3

As Maq said, ECM has the heaviest of the rain moving more into Connacht on Saturday, but can't say I am convinced about this solution, mainly because the GFS, having not only picked up on this potential before the ECM did, has also been more consistent with rainfall distribution from this feature.

RobertKK

maquiladora wrote: »

There will be a big temperature difference. Very mild, moist air in the south running into colder air further north. No snow in the south with these double digit figures!

maybe I was 15 miles out :P

I hope it is mild, have a lot of outdoor work whether it is rain, sleet or snow.

maquiladora

Met Office seem to be going with the GFS track, for now at least.

Hopefully this time tomorrow we'll have a better idea.

Villain

The ECM wasn't on board for this going beyond southern coastal counties this morning but certainly coming more inline with GFS, mind you the Met Eireann forecast updated in last 30 mins hasn't changed for Saturday really:

Saturday: Cloudy over south Munster and south Leinster with outbreaks of rain on Saturday morning and cold and frosty with icy patches elsewhere. The band of rain in the south may move northwards and turn to sleet or snow for a time. Frost is likely again in northern parts on Saturday night, but it will become milder in the south.

Villain

Net weather rainfall accumulation charts:

RobertKK

Looking very serious for southern areas that are prone to flooding, if these weather models are correct.

pad199207

The Liffey, Slaney, Barrow, Suir, Nore, Lee and Blackwater will all be on watch this weekend!

All very reminiscent of 2009. Flooding started off in the west and gradually the rest of the country followed!

Oneiric 3

UKMO Prep accumulation up to Sat 12z. Also going with the more southerly theme. ECMWF standing alone on this one for now.

km79

GO SOUTH
VERY VERY FAR SOUTH

WheatenBriar

pad199207 wrote: »

The Liffey, Slaney, Barrow, Suir, Nore, Lee and Blackwater will all be on watch this weekend!

All very reminiscent of 2009. Flooding started off in the west and gradually the rest of the country followed!

And the Avoca!

Oneiric 3

Weather coming up on RTE 1 in a couple of minutes.

leahyl

She's playing it down a little bit, just that it's going to be wet and windy, no mention of amounts of rainfall.

Oneiric 3

leahyl wrote: »

She's playing it down a little bit, just that it's going to be wet and windy, no mention of amounts of rainfall.

She mentioned that Saturday is looking potentially problematic. Seems a high degree of uncertainty so they have to cautious about alarming people.

leahyl

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

She mentioned that Saturday is looking potentially problematic. Seems a high degree of uncertainty so they have to cautious about alarming people.

I missed that part, think my mum started talking!

PukkaStukka

Talk of sleet and snow for most of the country on Saturday...:D

km79

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Talk of sleet and snow for most of the country on Saturday...:D

which will turn to water very quickly with the rain after
it's all precipitation
need dry weather
badly

maquiladora

Not exactly much support on the ECM ensembles for that 985mb low west of Ireland at 96 hours that was on the operational. The mean looks more like the GFS operational.

Oneiric 3

At first glance, the raw DMI HIRLAM 18z run has the warm front slightly further south than the ECM at Friday 06hrs.

maquiladora

18Z GFS has shifted north!

18Z GFS has taken the 12Z ECM route... #drama

Gonzo

temps look too high for any lying snow on saturday, sleet and snow falling onto wet ground can't be ruled out but more importantly the amount of rain that will fall is the important issue.

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS has shifted north!

18Z GFS has taken the 12Z ECM route... #drama

Which means?? Still heavy rain for South??

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

Which means?? Still heavy rain for South??

12Z GFS has 115mm over Cork at 6pm Sunday.
18Z GFS has 37mm over Cork at 6pm Sunday.

Basically, impossible to forecast while the models are doing this.

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z GFS has 115mm over Cork at 6pm Sunday.
18Z GFS has 37mm over Cork at 6pm Sunday.

Basically, impossible to forecast while the models are doing this.

Wow that's some difference alright!

maquiladora

Basically, more rain over the west and midlands, a lot less rain over the south. But it'll probably change again on the 0Z. :rolleyes:

km79

maquiladora wrote: »

Basically, more rain over the west and midlands, a lot less rain over the south. But it'll probably change again on the 0Z. :rolleyes:

when is the next round of bad news ?

M.T. Cranium

Shifts north or south will have the least impact on Clare, Limerick, north Kerry, south Galway and that region is already more or less into a level two alert situation, with level three overtones. Cork remains problematic but as most drainage there is from northwest to southeast, actual rainfall amounts over the south and east of the county are not the only factor in play for flood potential.